extended stay at home orders, indefinitely.

[Script]

well looks like the state of California has decided to extend stay at home orders to indefinitely.

Should not really have come as a surprise. Colder weather is one factor. But also the result of too many people thinking that if everybody else complies with soft measures, then I can sure be the exception. Well, I assume we all knew from the start (with the extreme, highly undesirable,yet very effective example of Wuhan) what that is leading to.

Why would a government lie about ICU capacities and then spend billions of dollars for alleviation ? Sounds fabricated. Also, authorities should look at ICU capacities as a trend. It's not that inflow is suddenly gonna stop altogether the day after tomorrow at a quarter past nine. There's a lag of up to 14 days.

Soft measures only work as long as people play along. After that come consequences. Sad.

Actually, I'm hoping for the virus to mutate at some point into a variant that causes less severe illness in the most affected (purely for its own survival), a variant which I hope will then take over. I'm not an expert in biology,, how likely is it ?

Until then I clearly prefer masks to curfews, 'please refrain from doing this or that'-requests to fining, and vaccination to ECMO. And I hope my neighbors feel the same about it.

 

[crazydoc]

And I hope my neighbors feel the same about it.

Maybe in Japan, but not where I live.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Should not really have come as a surprise. Colder weather is one factor. But also the result of too many people thinking that if everybody else complies with soft measures, then I can sure be the exception. Well, I assume we all knew from the start (with the extreme, highly undesirable,yet very effective example of Wuhan) what that is leading to.

Why would a government lie about ICU capacities and then spend billions of dollars for alleviation ? Sounds fabricated. Also, authorities should look at ICU capacities as a trend. It's not that inflow is suddenly gonna stop altogether the day after tomorrow at a quarter past nine. There's a lag of up to 14 days.

This seems like a slow moving problem, while a lot of people were hoping they could just get through it with short term adjustments. I don't know enough specific information to pontificate about CA but it appears, different states are having better or worse results. We should not read too much into these state results differences as each state is different, while there are probably some useful lessons there.

Soft measures only work as long as people play along. After that come consequences. Sad.

It is still not well understood by the public where the new infections are coming from (of course person to person), but governments seem focussed on shutting down small food/bar businesses, schools, and locations that are only indicated as a small fraction of transmission cases.

I expect spikes after thanksgiving, christmas, and new years, with new infections spread between friends and family. New year's with the addition of alcohol that impairs judgement could trigger much bad behavior. (Anecdotally a neighbor about 100 yards away from me had a NYE party, I got to watch a free fireworks show from my driveway).

Actually, I'm hoping for the virus to mutate at some point into a variant that causes less severe illness in the most affected (purely for its own survival), a variant which I hope will then take over. I'm not an expert in biology,, how likely is it ?

The so called UK variant, that is unlikely to be unique to UK, reportedly is less deadly but more virulent. Not killing the host sees useful to increase spread. In fact less symptoms will make it even easier to spread.

Until then I clearly prefer masks to curfews, 'please refrain from doing this or that'-requests to fining, and vaccination to ECMO. And I hope my neighbors feel the same about it.

I am hoping with the new year the state governments here will reflect on what worked and what didn't and make course adjustments.

People are understandably getting weary of the mitigation strategy, but they just need to be patient for several months more. I can't read their minds but am pleased to see reasonable compliance with mask wearing at my post office across the street, and my once a week walmart food shopping experience..

===

It is surprising that states seem to be caught flat footed regarding jabbing tens of millions of seniors (older than me) and front line workers. The hospital workers can jab each other, but now the critical shortfall seems to be medical workers to jab everybody else. This too will work itself out but will likely take longer than hoped for getting the public immunized.

We are already hearing anecdotes about screw-ups but this is par for the course.

Good luck everybody. The only good thing about being old is that time goes by faster.

JR 

 

[Script]

It is still not well understood by the public where the new infections are coming from (of course person to person)

In Japan, until two weeks ago infection routes were 50 per cent traceable. Often among family members living in same household. Now 66 per cent of routes are unknown. Bad !

The so called UK variant, that is unlikely to be unique to UK, reportedly is less deadly but more virulent

More virulent, yes, less deadly, is that so ?

 

[crazydoc]

less deadly but more virulent

Maybe a kind of oxymoron, since the two terms are synonyms. This particular mutant is considered more contagious (spreads more easily), but as far as I know , until more data is forthcoming, they have the same degree of virulence.

 

[cyrano]

That would be great.....even better if we can figure out why Covid laughs at the "very likely" preventative measures that apparently work for the flu...more effective vaccine compared to last year's maybe...

If you catch the flu, you get sick within 24 to 48 hours. You remain infectious for 24 hours only. In general, you're sick enough to stay in your bed for a day or two. The worst spreaders are those who go to work feeling ill.

Corona leaves you infectious for up to 10 days. Maybe even a bit more, in rare cases. And most don't get very sick. The chance of infecting others is vastly greater than with influenza.

If you take the mortality figures from those who do get real sick, over half of them dies. And that's with sufficient care.

Without care, most of the infected die.

Another problem is that the flu doesn't leave a lot of patients devastated for months after initial recovery.

Makes all your numbers kind of useless.

 

[crazydoc]

Without care, most of the infected die.

I think you mean most of the seriously ill die, though this probably an overestimation too.

I was adding that, whatever they are crediting for the lower flu cases isn't working as much for the cov19.

That could be due in part to Influenza's lower R0 (~1.3) vs covid19 (~2.5), so is not as easily spread.

Influenza also has a significant proportion of asymptomatic infections, and the transmission of disease from them is not clear, but it makes sense that mitigation factors to decrease the spread of covid could also be decreasing the transmission of influenza, including from asymptomatic individuals. So far, flu numbers this year seem to be quite a bit lower than in previous years.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILINet

In conclusion, the true asymptomatic fraction of influenza virus infections may depend on how infections are identified, and we found quite different estimates of the asymptomatic fraction in two different types of studies. In outbreak investigations where infections were virologically confirmed, we found a pooled mean of 16% (95% CI: 13%, 19%) of infections were asymptomatic, whereas in longitudinal studies in which infections were identified using serology the point estimates of the asymptomatic fraction adjusted for illness from other causes fell in the range 65%–85%.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586318/

Although asymptomatic individuals may shed influenza virus, studies have not determined if such people effectively transmit influenza.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2646474/

 

[JohnRoberts]

I think this may have been shared before but a weaker than typical flu season this summer (actually winter on the other side of the equator).

Bad for the flu shot industry, an expected benefit from increased use of masks and social distancing.

Of course COVID is still running its course through the population, we'll soon see how people behaved over the just ended holiday season. At least they didn't do a super spreader event in times square this year.

JR

 

[cyrano]

One thing that was to be expected: a baby boom...

 

[scott2000]

we'll soon see how people behaved over the just ended holiday season.

A little bit of a sensational title.... They've obviously never worked in a night club...lol

New Year's Eve 2020 Massive Fight in Canada ... Cops Attacked in All-Out Brawl

https://www.tmz.com/2021/01/02/quebec-police-holidays-covid-rules-resist-arrest-no-mask-tickets/

 

[cyrano]

You call that a massive fight?

We must have better idiots over here  8)

Including one that set off fireworks in his garden while enjoying a forbidden party. End of that party, of course... 

We did have a "massive" rave. Police couldn't stop it, so they fined everyone on the way out. Peacefully. Small groups that were very tired.  :

There was one in France too.

 

[iturnknobs]

This might have been preventable, had our federal government not lied to us from the start while actually trying to push herd immunity without having the balls to admit it publicly. Now there is a more virulent strain, likely as a result of the opportunity to replicate so many times. Operation Warp Speed should have had over 20 million people vaccinated already but we as a country sit at 3.x million vaccinations. Are you tired of all the winning yet? At least he understands business. Just maybe we'll get 4 more years of the circus mixed in with some civil war. Those who voted for Trump should be pleased with these results.

 

[iturnknobs]

So they say.  But I have heard differently from actual medical folks not government folks. So who’s to say who is right?

SHAME ON YOU... and Breitbart, and Fox News and NewsMax and RedState and Parler and...

 

[crazydoc]

They tried finding a balance, and our ERs and ICUs are at capacity again.

So they say.  But I have heard differently from actual medical folks not government folks. So who’s to say who is right?

Actual medical folks? The proportion of self serving ignorant assholes among doctors is at least as great as that in government. The people working in ER's and ICU's are a completely different breed from those out in the world. If a trip to an ICU is in your future this may become apparent.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Actual medical folks? The proportion of self serving ignorant assholes among doctors is at least as great as that in government. The people working in ER's and ICU's are a completely different breed from those out in the world. If a trip to an ICU is in your future this may become apparent.

Yes, thank you.

I would speculate that ER and ICU medicine is mostly (short term) reactive while it is hard to not notice the slow moving pandemic trends. I can predict from my living room in MS that there will be a bump in cases after the recent holidays.

The healthcare infrastructure seems unprepared to inoculate millions of citizens quickly. Leaving some vaccine sitting unused. Some modest amounts of the super cold vaccine has been lost to mishandling. Over the next few months I expect the private sector to step up with many vaccinations distributed from retail drug stores (like CVS). We now have alternate vaccines that don't require super cold handling, making it easier to distribute. 

Earlier last year the government stepped up emergency manufacture of much needed hardware, but I haven't seen any similar effort to beef up medical technicians and critical staff. As I observed earlier some personnel in high demand positions were hired away to work in large cities with critical shortages.

The double edged sword of delegating execution of the vaccinations to state governments means we will see better and worse handling of this between different states. Don't expect the news to showcase the states that are doing a good job. 

Be safe, follow safety protocols and remain patient.

JR 

 

[pucho812]

SHAME ON YOU... and Breitbart, and Fox News and NewsMax and RedState and Parler and...

Yeah yeah shame on me that I know medical doctors working at local hospitals who say how it is vs how the local gov says it is.
It must be tough having a moral high ground for everything.

 

[crazydoc]

I know medical doctors working at local hospitals who say how it is

Well, how do they say it is? Let us know which hospitals and the real numbers.

 

[pucho812]

Well, how do they say it is? Let us know which hospitals and the real numbers.

Well mlk hospital for one has 0 covid cases I have her. Told. But one could argue that mlk hospital is in the hood and they don’t go to the hospital unless it’s a gun shot wound

 

[Scodiddly]

Well mlk hospital for one has 0 covid cases I have her. Told. But one could argue that mlk hospital is in the hood and they don’t go to the hospital unless it’s a gun shot wound

Or possibly they've decided to concentrate Covid cases at a different hospital, keep the contagion in one place as much as possible.

 

[crazydoc]

Well mlk hospital for one has 0 covid cases I have her. Told. But one could argue that mlk hospital is in the hood and they don’t go to the hospital unless it’s a gun shot wound

A Los Angeles hospital is so overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases that it has begun to treat some patients in the gift shop and the chapel, CNN reported Monday.
Dr. Elaine Batchlor, the CEO of Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital, said if cases continued to rise, the hospital might have to result to wartime techniques of rationing care.
"We may be forced to do something that, as health professionals, we all really just loathe having to even think about," Batchlor told CNN's Brooke Baldwin.
https://news.yahoo.com/los-angeles-hospital-overwhelmed-covid-014018264.html

There are more recent articles in the LA Times; paywall prevents me from reading them, but I guess MLK has discharged all their covid patients in the last few days, according to your sources.  :