The Big One

[DaveP]

I'm a bit concerned about all our Californian members safety.

There seems to be a lot of seismic activity going on in the plates adjoining yours at the moment, do you get any kind of regular warning as to how the pressure is building?

DaveP

 

[bluebird]

I haven't been paying attention. I've lived in California for a pretty long time now and felt my share of small to medium earthquakes.  I've never been in a really big one. The inevitability of a big one is very real. It's scary and something I don't like to think about. There are some warning systems being developed but I don't think they give you more than a couple seconds. Doesn't make me feel safer.

I'm actually glad you mentioned it though. I really need to get a proper earthquake kit together and your post gave me the push I needed to get it done!

Ian

 

[DaveP]

"Donnellan added that the USGS' 85% probability and her 99.9% chance still favored a big earthquake in the next three years.

"If an earthquake happens in three years, we're both right," Donnellan said.

The study's underpinnings rely on a well-established law of earthquake science: For every 1,000 magnitude 3 earthquakes, there are 100 magnitude 4 quakes, 10 magnitude 5 quakes, one magnitude 6 earthquake and so forth. It was established by Beno Gutenberg and Charles Richter, and is known as the Gutenberg-Richter relationship."

This sounds like a neat mantra, but I would have thought you have to look at what's happening around the plate as well, because that's where the pressure is coming from, i.e Japan and the mid Atlantic.  California is a subduction zone that has to pass it all back to the mantle.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

One of the issues with fracking is that it supposedly causes earthquakes. We should know that earthquakes are caused by plates moving past each other, catching, and then suddenly releasing years of pent up pressure.

If anything fracking probably triggers more small prophylactic quakes that if left alone could build up into much larger quakes later when they finally release . 

Of course lawyers will never pass up an opportunity to sue oil companies. 

Maybe start fracking along the San Andreas fault line?  Only half kidding.  8)

JR

PS: Actually smarter to frack after the big one, because triggering one now will get all the blame for the energy released that was pent up over many years (Northridge was 22 years ago, but that was a previously unknown fault, so predictions about "where" the next one happens may be suspect. ). 

 

[DaveP]

A magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck off the coast of Mexico on Monday, 108 km (67 miles) southwest of Suchiate in the state of Chiapas, at a depth of 10 km, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

DaveP

 

[pucho812]

we get earthquakes every day. Most we do not notice, it's only the bigger ones which get the news and really big ones which get national and worldwide news.  Yes there has been all kinds of seismic activity there always has been, it still continues. 
I appreciate such concern, we don't really get a warning although they are looking to put in a system that can give us a few seconds warning time.    I see it all this way, if you want to life in a place where  the weather is amazing year round, it comes at a cost.  Not much we can really do other then stay prepared in case it happens.