The Vaccine

[JohnRoberts]

The good (bad?) thing about being old is that time goes by more quickly. Being optimistic was not very popular.

For a personal experience anecdote today while shopping at Walmart they held us outside and only allowed us in as finished shoppers left.

The lady in front of me without a mask on, turned around and tried to talk to me complaining about the wait... I didn't say anything and she turned back around. My mistake for letting her in line, but she wasn't hot enough to talk to without a mask.

I saw a couple Walmart workers with their mask pulled down below their nose. I didn't engage them either.

===

I just checked my state website and no jabs available in a the nearest county (25-30 miles each way). My local Walmart is still not operational for getting COVID jabs.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

70m doses have now been given to 14% of the population, with almost 30m covid cases in USA, about 9%, so I'd estimate 23% of the total population of 330m = 75m, now has some immunity. The over 18yo population (those eligible to be vaccinated under current guidelines) is about 210m, so actually 36% of the vaccine eligible population now has some immunity. If only 60% of the population is willing to be vaccinated (just a guess - I bet it increases), then 60% of the 126m willing and eligible have been vaccinated. So unless more people are willing to get the jabs, and the age limit guidelines are lowered after more studies, it seems like the 70-80% herd immunity numbers (210m people) will never be reached through vaccination.

But it looks to me that even this level of vaccination is making significant inroads in the spread of serious disease, since most of those vaccinated have been the high risk population (elderly, health workers). There are probably still a lot of asymptomatic carriers out there, who are not being tested due to lack of symptoms. But that's OK - they will contribute to herd immunity over time.

 

[Speedskater]

It's been suggested that those that had a mild case or were asymptomatic several months ago, will have their immunity fade especially with regards to the newer variants.

 

[JohnRoberts]

It's been suggested that those that had a mild case or were asymptomatic several months ago, will have their immunity fade especially with regards to the newer variants.

That sounds like "scary" news... I have also heard speculation that a large number of unreported mild or symptomless COVID cases are contributing to higher natural immunity in the population than statistics suggest. This could make herd immunity closer than officials predict.

The Covid infection death/rate seems to be falling precipitously and is under reported in media. You can make up your own conspiracy theories for why this isn't front page news.

I have no doubt that big Pharma is counting on a recurring revenue stream from COVID booster shots, not unlike the flu shot industry.

JR

PS: Update, I did secure a slot to get my first jab of Moderna (2 1/2 weeks from now). Moderna has reportedly already developed a vaccine to address the South Africa variant and are in phase one testing. This will not have to run the full course of phase three testing since it is a variant on the approved vaccine.

CA approved the J&J vaccine and is expecting >1M doses over next three weeks. 

 

[crazydoc]

It's been suggested that those that had a mild case or were asymptomatic several months ago, will have their immunity fade especially with regards to the newer variants.

Not that I've heard about:

Before this latest study, Rodda said work had been done by her research team and others, showing that antibodies are maintained for at least 3 months.
In her team’s study, in particular, it was shown that this occurs even in people who have mild symptoms.Their study also suggested that immunity could last much longer.

In a different study published in The New England Journal of Medicine, researchers in Iceland studied 1,107 people who had recovered from COVID-19 and tested positive for the antibodies.Over a 4-month period, they found that those COVID-19 antibodies did not decline.

A study published in the journal Immunity found that people who recover from even mild cases of COVID-19 produce antibodies for at least 5 to 7 months and could last much longer.Their team has tested nearly 30,000 people in Arizona since April 30, 2020, shortly after a blood test for the new coronavirus was developed.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-long-does-immunity-last-after-covid-19-what-we-know#How-natural-immunity-works-after-COVID-19-develops

Do you have any reliable data?

Also, antibodies are not the only immunomodualtors at work here.

The components of immunity protection include:
    - Antibodies, which are proteins that circulate in the blood and recognize foreign substances like viruses, and neutralize them.
  - Helper T cells help to recognize pathogens.
  - Killer T cells kill pathogens.
  - B cells make new antibodies when the body needs them.

More time will tell.

 

[Tubetec]

Angry scenes in Dublin yesterday , its convienient to blame the whole thing on anti vaxers ,with government  now speaking of a digital list of who's been vaccinted and who's not . There is a certain number of people who simply do not trust and never will trust the vaccines. Alot of this , I think , stems how the subject of the Mother and baby home vaccine testing was systematically covered up by church state and the medical profession , the seeds of this distrust were sown a very longtime back and people have good reason to be suspicious .  Were heading down the road now to a two tier society , coersive force will be used to persuade people to get vaccinated ,those who refuse to facing having thier rights diminished or hit financially in some way or another. In recent years we've seen the use of this coercion in relation to the states social welfare card , sign up for biometric recognition or we cut off your social welfare payments , and this from a state that has willfully taken a hand in the covering up of unspeakable attrocities , a state that has treated our privacy like a cash cow in terms of how social media giants use our data and in other cases it actually rubbed out peoples real identity for ever.

Theres been many good reasons to distrust the motivations of our governments over the years , the states abysmal failure of the victims of institutional abuse is manifesting itself now as an antivax movement in city working class areas mainly , we reap what we sow.

 

[Brian Roth]

Well, I'll try to "simmer this down" (a phrase Grandad Roth used from time to time...he and Dad were both wise men)...

Mom (age 91) in OKC is getting her first jab today (Monday).  Her primary doc was strongly encouraging it....some of her "church lady friends" were filling her head with "It's a ruse!  They inject you with tracking microchips so that Bill Gates and the Illuminati will track you!  It's a time bomb because in six months it will kill you and half the population on the planet!"

Mom still has almost all of her wits/smarts intact so she did her own research and reading and concluded she would "risk it".  However her minor(?) concerns are side effects from the jab.  Some of her (saner) elderly friends reported minor to larger side effects, and she is prepared.  We will be keeping in closer contact besides our usual phone conversations each week.

The vax distribution here in Kansas has been....uhhhh....slow.  Looks like I can get a jab later this week since I'm age 65+

I really want to drive to OKC and see Mom again.  It's been well over a year, but her doc told her many months ago to stay at home/use drive-thrus/etc since she has a variety of health probs due to her age.

This was the first Christmas since I was born that was not spent with Mom since I was born in 1954.  We exchanged gifts via UPS.

Fortunately, for many months,  Mom's church has streaming services each week since they shut down in-person.

Bri

 

[ruffrecords]

Your Mom is 91 and her doc advised her to use drive throughs???? I he crazy?

Cheers

Ian

 

[crazydoc]

I really want to drive to OKC and see Mom again.

Looks like you'll be able to in a little over a month (after you get your two jabs). Many families and friends will be able to visit and hug again in the near future.

 

[Script]

Yes, and that is the best news in a long time.

 

[crazydoc]

  Were heading down the road now to a two tier society , coersive force will be used to persuade people to get vaccinated ,those who refuse to facing having thier rights diminished or hit financially in some way or another.

I don't see that happening in the US. Certain situations will call for proof of vaccination possibly (contact with immunocomprimised patients and other situations that may be a danger to certain individuals, etc), and certainly any private business or other enterprise could require it, but I highly doubt the government will be doing this.

Those that want to protect themselves and society in general will get vaccinated, and those who don't, won't. I'm confident that enough will be vaccinated or with prior disease that the R value will drop to less than one, and the case rate will slowly drop to very low values, though never zero.

 

[JohnRoberts]

On topic J&J is now shipping 4M doses of their just approved one jab, normal refrigeration, vaccine. Some people are apprehensive about the lower reported efficacy numbers than earlier vaccines but it is worth noting they did a bunch of their phase three testing in So Africa where the more infectious virus strain was first detected and running rampant.

The one jab vaccine will be better for mass inoculations where it is difficult to manage second jabs, while there is some debate about how necessary that second moderna jab will be.
====
China is shipping millions of doses of Covid vaccine around the world to perform phase 3 testing in multiple countries. Apparently not enough covid in China for proper phase 3 testing. Zimbabwe is buying something like 1.8M doses from China. Of course the phase 3 test doses were free. 

JR

PS; Drive thru seems to be the preferred method hereabouts. They jab you through an open car window and you don't even leave your vehicle, including parking for 15 minutes to monitor for reactions. I hear they are using military personnel to give the injections.

PPS: My late 90s neighbor was still driving every day before his recent hospital stay... I expect to see him driving again soon.

 

[rob_gould]

Ha! I think for people in the UK, the thought of people driving in their 90s instantly puts this doddery old geezer into their heads

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46912691

 

[Brian Roth]

Your Mom is 91 and her doc advised her to use drive throughs???? I he crazy?

Cheers

Ian

Mom is amazing for her age.  She has always taken care of herself and is still as sharp as can be.  At worst, she sometimes has a "brain fart" when it comes to the name of a TV star or whatever. She talks my head off on the telephone (as always..lol) with all the latest news/politics and so forth.  She has the daily newspaper delivered and reads it cover to cover.  She watches the local TV news at noon, six and ten (and national newscast at 5:30 PM) and follows "mainstream" sources via the internet.  She always has been a News Nut!  It keeps her sharp.

Years ago, she bought a VW Passat (IIRC) with all the top line safety options....side curtain airbags, etc....and has it at the dealership for very regular maintenance.  The car looks and drives like it just came from the showroom.

However, back in 2018 I FINALLY convinced her to stay off the freeways.  In OKC the big ones are 3-5 lanes in each direction and no one pays much attention to the typical 60/65 MPH limits.

"Mom!  You have no business flying along with all those lead foots!"

"Brian, it just takes so much longer to get where I need to go if I avoid the freeways."

"Mom, your reaction times cannot be what they used to be."

Mom grumbled then she agreed.

She knows the streets in OKC well and now has a small area she drives to get her 'scrips, milk, and takeout food every week or two via the drive-thrus.

A friendly "young" neighbor (in her 70's) has been taking her list to shop and deliver her groceries since the pandemic began, and her doc told Mom to not go into stores.  Mom was bummed because she has always liked to shop. 

In recent years I followed her as we both drove in "formation" to destinations and she was on top of her skills as we drove.  Sadly at some point that will have to come to an end.  She will be devastated.

Some folks don't age as quickly as others and Mom is one of those.

ANYWAY...

I just got off the phone with her.  She drove further than I would have liked and got her first jab while sitting in her car.  No side effects she told me and then relayed all of the local news tidbits, many of which I already knew since I follow the same news sources.  I just listen while she chats!

Bri

 

[Tubetec]

Today the Oxford/Astra vaccine roll out had been suspended in Ireland .
Concerns have been raised by the Norwegians when four reciepients of the vaccine developed a very rare type of blood clot on the brain . A medic on the radio this morning listed a range of sysptoms associated , it included just generally feeling bad for more than three days after getting the injection ,but also listed the appearance of blue blotches on the skin as a possible indicator that something has gone wrong . Of course these are only 'Precautionary' measures , as of yet no firm causal link between the vax and the deaths exists.

Rushing vaccine tests is bound to have its pittfalls , rushing half a dozen vaccines to market all at the one time could turnout a recipe for disaster very easily.

 

[ruffrecords]

Rushing vaccine tests is bound to have its pittfalls , rushing half a dozen vaccines to market all at the one time could turnout a recipe for disaster very easily.

Rushing is not a problem but cutting corners is. AFAIK all the required trials and tests were undertaken. The only thing that was shortened was the time it took the authorities to contemplate their navels in order to justify their existence before approving the vaccine.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

AstraZeneca vaccine has been suspended in a few countries over an abundance of caution, because of several reported blood clot injuries. As is typical for such cases the news media will tell the scariest story about this that they can.

I am not a medical professional, this may be something larger, random, or specific to one or a few batches. Maybe instead of sitting for 15 minutes after the jab, they should walk around (kidding). The good news is now we have multiple vaccines, in case the AZ jab is actually faulty .

I am still scheduled for my first jab this coming week. Moderna I suspect, that will require a follow up 2nd jab. I have heard rumors from my neighbor (a working druggist) that they may be getting some J&J vaccine (one jab) to use.

I don't have any preference, but wouldn't mind 1x vs 2x since I have to drive to the next county. 

My neighbor the druggist has advised that I dose up with some Acetaminophen (Tylenol) before getting my injection to mitigate side effects. Acetaminophen, a blood thinner is also protective against blood clots. Coincidence...? probably. 
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Another interesting statistic I read said that some 60-70% of hospitalized covid patients were obese. This is higher than the rate of obesity in the general population (around 25-40% depending on who you ask).

===

An unintentional study of COVID infection spread within sports leagues like NBA, NFL, etc, shows that they were granted disproportionate access to testing supplies, while the public was often forced to do without. Some interesting factoids they gleaned from near daily testing is that symptomless transmission is a serious factor, so just taking everybody's temperature is not a sufficient barrier to spread. One common incident related to transmission was sharing a car ride... unsure what that says about public transportation. 

Another positive thing about the sports study they did a deep dive on related long term side effects of COVID (like heart inflammation) and did not find any long term damage with statistical significance (a good thing).
===

Another unrelated study shared that mask use only reduces risk of spread something like 1%, of course 1% is important to that 1% and this study was about actual mask use. We all see many that don't wear their masks properly.

Always optimistic, I suspect we have a much higher amount of symptomless infection and consequential immunity moving us closer to herd immunity than the number crunchers are willing to accept.

Shutting down for a few weeks to bend the curve has expanded into months and our new government hall pass monitors don't want to release their grip on the new found power they enjoy (absolute power corrupts absolutely).

Sorry some of my personal speculation mixed in there with some real facts.  Best advice for avoiding covid death is don't be obese or have compromised immunity, also try not to be old.

JR 

 

[Script]

Some side effects after all kinds of vaccinations  are well known, so why should it be any different with these new vaccines ?

The number of people with serious side effects after Covid vaccination is still way lower than the number of deaths or the number of people with more serious effects in the wake of infection with Covid.

Of course they have to investigate any irregularity. Blood clotting can quickly get life-threatening. Indicates Heparin and like therapy -- the younger the patient, the higher the success rate. (Rule of thumb: A 90-year-old suffering serious clotting [embolism] and being treated with blood thinners has a survival chance of 10 percent,  a 40-year-old 60 percent). Maybe it's something with that vaccine, maybe not -- they need to investigate.

(crazydoc) Those that want to protect themselves and society in general will get vaccinated, and those who don't, won't.

 

[cyrano]

It's quite clear that supermarkets and the (office) workplace are the most important factor in spreading the virus. As much as 40% of infections stem from the workplace over here. Public transport is also responsible for some of the workplace infections. Public transport's effect is hard to measure, though, so most specialists don't want to go there.

And that's with over 90% adoption of masks. If adoption is significantly lower, the influence on the spread will be like 1%. That's why we see no flu cases over here.

The same with vaccination. If less than half of the population gets vaccinated, it's next to useless.

What's unclear to me, is timing. How much time do we need/have to manufacture the vaccin and to apply it?

We're fortunate this is a slowly evolving virus.

 

[boji]

Question to the smarter scientist folks: Can vaxes can make viruses more hearty, threatful?

Trying disprove a notion that the more narrow the vax mechanism, the more covid is steered to mutate against that mechanism, e.g. crown spikes 'learn' to circumvent immune response.