The Vaccine

[JohnRoberts]

I have been speculating about this for some time, jut just read a newspaper article talking about large drug store chains (Walmart, Walgreen, CVS, etc) participating in the covid vaccine distribution. This seems smarter than reinventing the wheel to get jabs in arms as a one time (or two jabs) event.

Of course this is all contingent on getting vaccine supplies in adequate quantities.

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My local state health dept website now has a several question pre qualifying screen, before they tell me there are no first jab appointments available anywhere in my state.

JR   

 

[cyrano]

The UK variant of the virus seems to have mutated in a vaccine-evading one:

https://www.livescience.com/uk-coronavirus-variant-mutation-e484k.html

 

[crazydoc]

The UK variant of the virus seems to have mutated in a vaccine-evading one:

https://www.livescience.com/uk-coronavirus-variant-mutation-e484k.html

I think "vaccine evading" sounds a little hyperbolic.

It’s not that the mutation will render existing vaccines useless, scientists stress. The vaccines authorized so far and those in development produce what’s called a polyclonal response, generating numerous antibodies that home in on different parts of the virus. Changes to any of those target sites raise the possibility that the vaccines would be less effective, not that they won’t work at all.
“With one mutation or even three mutations, it’s expected the antibodies will still recognize this variant, though they might not recognize it as well as other variants,” said Ramón Lorenzo-Redondo, a molecular virologist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine.

Scientists do think the coronavirus could eventually change so much that the immunity provided by vaccines will be threatened, a process that will pick up as the number of people protected from the virus — either through vaccination or infection — grows and evolutionary pressure in turn increases. But they still anticipate it could take years, and that when it does occur, vaccine makers can tweak their designs to match the newer variant, a process some companies have said would only take weeks.
https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/07/coronavirus-mutation-vaccine-strength/

We need to wait for more information to develop.

 

[cyrano]

As I presumed, time is the most important factor. Hopefully, I'm right calling Covid a slow virus  8)

 

[ruffrecords]

A very recent study showed that, as expected, antibody levels declined 6 months after vaccination. However, new memory B cells were produced and still present. These rapidly produce antibodies when the virus is present and they produce ones that are even more effective against the virus than the ones produced by the vaccine itself.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

still no slots available in my state for first jabs.

J&J is getting closer to approval and supposedly have 100M one shot doses ready to ship.

EU apparently combined their entire community's vaccine purchase into one or two huge order to gain pricing leverage, but apparently incurred delivery issues for the entire community. Of course its more complicated then that. 

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I am inclined to speculate that the effects from super spreader holidays, like christmas and new years will be subsiding by now. I hope people don't behave too badly during super bowl parties. FL seems more open than most states, this weekend will be a good test for them. 

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

still no slots available in my state for first jabs.

J&J is getting closer to approval and supposedly have 100M one shot doses ready to ship.

EU apparently combined their entire community's vaccine purchase into one or two huge order to gain pricing leverage, but apparently incurred delivery issues for the entire community. Of course its more complicated then that. 

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I am inclined to speculate that the effects from super spreader holidays, like christmas and new years will be subsiding by now. I hope people don't behave too badly during super bowl parties. FL seems more open than most states, this weekend will be a good test for them. 

JR

My wife and I got our first shots at the end of last week.

The EU situation is complex. Apart from the tardines of vaccine supplies, probably the worst outcome is the effect on Irish politics (and lives) of the threat to invoke Article 16.

Cases are falling rapidly in the UK following over a month of total lockdown. The rapid deployment of vaccine has led to calls for swiffer easing of social restrictions which some fear could eventually lead to a fourth lockdown. Tough call either way.

Cheers

Ian

 

[hodad]

FL seems more open than most states, this weekend will be a good test for them. 

JR

In related news, FL is a US hotspot for the UK variant--not that surprising considering it's more contagious and Florida is less concerned with safety measures than many places.

Another bit I saw is that they're doing some testing with "heterologous" booster shots--using a different booster than the original shot.  If effective, it could at the very least make it simpler to get that 2nd shot. 

 

[cyrano]

I'm afraid this paints a less comforting picture of vaccine effectiveness. According to the NY Times, South Africa stopped vaccinations with the Astra-Zeneca vaccin because it offers very little protection from the local mutation:

South Africa halted use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus vaccine on Sunday after evidence emerged that the vaccine did not protect clinical-trial participants from mild or moderate illness caused by the more contagious virus variant that was first seen there.

The findings were a devastating blow to the country’s efforts to combat the pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/world/south-africa-astrazeneca-vaccine.html

 

[JohnRoberts]

I'm afraid this paints a less comforting picture of vaccine effectiveness. According to the NY Times, South Africa stopped vaccinations with the Astra-Zeneca vaccin because it offers very little protection from the local mutation:


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/07/world/south-africa-astrazeneca-vaccine.html

While not exactly apples and oranges, Australia is advising calm about the South Africa news and remains confident in the Astra-Zeneca vaccine.

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It is the nature of news media to scare people into consuming more of their product (news).

JR

 

[cyrano]

Based on what, exactly?

 

[Bo Deadly]

I wouldn't lean too hard on one data point. I'm not even sure if we can consider it "data" at this point. It's exactly the type of story that gets hyperbolized for all sorts of reasons.

My impression so far is that even a low efficacy vaccine is still highly effective at preventing severe illness and death. And maybe it helps reduce transmission enough to push the R value down a little more.

The main issue right now is clearly the vaccine supply chain. If we can ramp it up just enough to stay ahead of the new variants and the numbers dip in the spring like they did in 2020, then I think we're going to be good.

 

[ruffrecords]

The South African variant changes the shape of the protein spike that the vaccine needs to latch on to. This will affect all current vaccines to a greater or lesser extent.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

While purely anecdotal so don't read too much into it, yesterday talking with my neighbor the druggist, he shared that he knows a guy who got really sick a couple weeks after his first covid jab. They tested for everything but it was covid and he was really sick, so ended up getting the anti-body infusion, and fully recovered.

This is just a one rat anecdote so doesn't mean a lot. This falls under the category of sh__ happens.

I asked my neighbor about vaccine supply and he said the state has supply but is holding it for second jabs. I think the UK was smart to give twice as many people first jabs that provide a level of immunity probably adequate to bend the curve. In several months we should have a surplus of vaccines as more get approved.
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It is interesting how the "good" news about shrinking number of new cases is hidden deeper in the middle of the newspaper. Media needs to beat on the doom and gloom, "dark winter" drum to justify another $2T stimulus bill without bipartisan cooperation.

JR 

PS I am always early with my stock market trades but I suspect covid shots will be the new flu shots from here on. Unclear who will be the winners but large pharmacies (like CVS and Walmart) and major vaccine players (like J&J) are on my watch list. 

 

[JohnRoberts]

Speaking of (all) vaccines, in the news recently reports of back sliding in wiping out polio in the few remaining outbreak areas (Pakistan/Afghanistan). Reportedly Covid has shut down regional programs to finally put a lid on Polio.

I am old enough to remember the first round of western polio vaccinations (1950s).

Hopefully this covid thing too will pass and we can finish wiping out the scourge of polio world wide ( kids paralyzed). 

JR

 

[Script]

Israel reports the jab by Pfizer to be 93 percent effective in preventing infection in a survey group of more than 500.000 people who had received the second shot. Pretty encouraging.

On a different note, FB has started to erase false info on vaccines on their platform. While generally good in this case, I think, there's also the peril of future problems wrt monopoly / censorship.

Polio, nasty. It was almost eradicated.

 

[ruffrecords]

Speaking of (all) vaccines, in the news recently reports of back sliding in wiping out polio in the few remaining outbreak areas (Pakistan/Afghanistan). Reportedly Covid has shut down regional programs to finally put a lid on Polio.

I am old enough to remember the first round of western polio vaccinations (1950s).

Hopefully this covid thing too will pass and we can finish wiping out the scourge of polio world wide ( kids paralyzed). 

JR

A goal I support 100%.My wife is a survivor of the 1957 outbreak in the UK. Fortunately for most of her life she has been fine apart from the mental scars she still carries caused by fellow schoolkids shunning her because she had the 'lurgy' or calling her cripple. In later life the cumulative effects of muscle and nerve damage cause what is called post polio syndrome. It general form is that any muscle related problems will be worsened in the muscles that Polio affected. Our next door neighbour was also affected in the same outbreak as my wife. Some days it takes him an hour just to get out of bed.

So Polio really does need to be eradicated, not just for the children it affects but for the life long problems it causes.

Cheers

Ian

 

[crazydoc]

Though I can find no information considering this, my own thought is that with 20% of the US population with some immunity to covid, either vaccinated with at least one dose of the vaccine or having had covid 19 disease, part of the drop in case rate over the last few weeks would be due to this. As the R value drops, contagion decreases.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Though I can find no information considering this, my own thought is that with 20% of the US population with some immunity to covid, either vaccinated with at least one dose of the vaccine or having had covid 19 disease, part of the drop in case rate over the last few weeks would be due to this. As the R value drops, contagion decreases.

Yes I have heard speculation that the unreported number of people who have already caught and recovered from COVID is moving us closer toward herd immunity ( "heard" immunity). Plus the number of people getting jabbed, ++ the number of people not participating in super spreader events recently, like Thanksgiving, Christmas, or new years was.

Mardi gras (fat tuesday) was a little thin this year in Nawlins, but at this point that seems like a smart thing.

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I am starting to see openings for vaccine jabs in other counties elsewhere in my state. For now I am not in enough of a hurry to make the road trip. But will if nothing more convenient opens up soon... Walmart is giving vaccinations in other states just not the Wally World near me (yet). 

JR

 

[crazydoc]

I found some information on vaccine epidemiological effect that is starting to come out:

COVID-19 cases have been dropping nationwide since December, including at nursing homes. Interventions other than vaccines explain some of the fall. But a county-level comparison of facilities that got their first shots from 18 to 27 December and those that didn’t showed the drop in daily cases was more than twice as large in the earlier vaccinated facilities (a 48% decline versus 21%).

Then there's this:

Surprisingly, their Florida model shows COVID-19 cases would steadily decline even without vaccination. That’s because the state’s reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2—how many other people each COVID-19 case infects—has dropped below 1. “It’s mostly masking, social distancing, and the slow buildup of natural immunity in the population,” Longini says. Indeed, as in many U.S. states, Florida’s cases began to drop steeply in January.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/how-soon-will-covid-19-vaccines-return-life-normal

But I find it hard to believe, at least in my local area, that mitigation efforts have had much of an effect. Cases here have dropped precipitously in the last two months, but mask use has gotten even worse, less than 50% now, (my experience in local businesses), in this "Trumpiest" of all California counties. Now there are about 4000 people here, out of a total of 30,000, (about 13%) who have had the disease or are vaccinated. Since mitigation efforts seem to be down here, we'll see if the case rate goes up again, despite ongoing vaccination, though I suspect it's vaccination that will keep the case rate down.