The Vaccine

[ruffrecords]

Whoopee! Just got the phone call with the appointment for my first Covid jab next Thursday.  ;D

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

Whoopee! Just got the phone call with the appointment for my first Covid jab next Thursday.  ;D

Cheers

Ian

Congrats, I just checked my state website and they say no first dose appointments available.

JR

[update- J&J just reported 66-72% effectiveness from trial 3... they claim they can deliver something like 1B doses before the end of the year. Lower effectiveness than Moderna, but better than China's sinovac, and better than nothing. /update]

 

[iturnknobs]

Whoopee! Just got the phone call with the appointment for my first Covid jab next Thursday.  ;D

Cheers

Ian

That is good to hear. Just had a family friend of 40+ years pass yesterday. The vaccines can't come soon enough. My only hope of jumping the line, given my age, is being associated with a large entertainment venue that is "in cahoots" with the city of Chicago... not quite sure that's actually fair, either, but I won't decline it. I have been cognizant of the cause and compliant with health recommendations... that's how I would justify that. Congrats for you and your family.

 

[Script]

Whoopee! Just got the phone call with the appointment for my first Covid jab next Thursday.  ;D

Cheers

Ian

Great news ! Really happy to hear.

 

[Bo Deadly]

[update- J&J just reported 66-72% effectiveness from trial 3... they claim they can deliver something like 1B doses before the end of the year. Lower effectiveness than Moderna, but better than China's sinovac, and better than nothing. /update]

I'm a little disappointed that people on TV don't explain this stuff better. Even Fauci and those guys present a very simplistic explanation about what these percentages really mean.

When they say the J&J vaccine is 72% effective, that is not applicable to everyone equally. It would be more accurate to say that 72% of people will be covered 100% and definitely not get severe illness and that 28% of people's immune systems are not functioning as well as most people to the point were the J&J vaccine doesn't quite give them the boost sufficient to hold back the virus.

Incidentally it seems to me that the solution is to just give the more effective vaccines to the most vulnerable people and then you give the J&J and other less effective ones to everyone else.

Another misconception is that it doesn't matter if the US achieves herd immunity (as if that's something that you suddenly get) if the rest of the world does not. People will still be travelling from country to country and spreading the variants around.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I'm a little disappointed that people on TV don't explain this stuff better. Even Fauci and those guys present a very simplistic explanation about what these percentages really mean.

I dumbed it down to KISS.... the 66% and 72% are two different metrics.  Both are enough to slow/stop the pandemic. For perspective china is selling boatloads with slightly above 50%.

When they say the J&J vaccine is 72% effective, that is not applicable to everyone equally. It would be more accurate to say that 72% of people will be covered 100% and definitely not get severe illness and that 28% of people's immune systems are not functioning as well as most people to the point were the J&J vaccine doesn't quite give them the boost sufficient to hold back the virus.

Incidentally it seems to me that the solution is to just give the more effective vaccines to the most vulnerable people and then you give the J&J and other less effective ones to everyone else.

It's not like we have vaccine in excess... after this initial scrum is over, we can get picky about the sticky. 

Another misconception is that it doesn't matter if the US achieves herd immunity (as if that's something that you suddenly get) if the rest of the world does not. People will still be travelling from country to country and spreading the variants around.

Did anybody say that here?

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

Here's hoping my jab on Thursday does not get disrupted by the unelected bureaucrats of the European Commission throwing their toys out of the pram over their inability to function in the real world.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

Here's hoping my jab on Thursday does not get disrupted by the unelected bureaucrats of the European Commission throwing their toys out of the pram over their inability to function in the real world.

Cheers

Ian

Astra Zeneca is wrestling with production problems as a new player in vaccine business they didn't have much experience making low cost vaccines in high production volume. Funniest comment from an EC suit was saying the "first come first served" didn't apply to them when they were late locking in vaccine orders.

Novavax covid vaccine is looking promising in early testing but they are seeing worse results against new (South Africa)  Covid strains. The major vaccine makers are already tweaking their vaccine mixes, for broader protection.

I expect the new normal to be annual shots and perhaps mid year boosters.

In light of this probable future it seems prudent to partner with drugstore chains for durable long term delivery systems, rather than ramping up emergency jab sites.

JR   

 

[ruffrecords]

I read today the J&J vaccine has completed its UK clinical trials and could be approved in a few weeks. A single jab solution is an important leap forward when the entire population needs to be inoculated. That will make five approved vaccines available in  the UK.

Cheers

Ian

 

[crazydoc]

That will make five approved vaccines available in  the UK.

I expect people both there and here in the US will start demanding to get the one they want.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I expect people both there and here in the US will start demanding to get the one they want.

I am not demanding anything yet, but MS is not accepting any new appointments... they said to check back in mid-february waiting for new supplies.

I expect more vaccines should be a good thing (J&J say they can make 1B doses before end of the year). Merck bailed on two of their vaccine candidates because the effectiveness  numbers were not as good as some of the early winners, so they may be looking ahead to consumers comparison shopping for vaccines.

Right now I can't be picky.

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

I expect people both there and here in the US will start demanding to get the one they want.

Not so sure that will happen in the UK. When I got the phone call inviting me to have the jab I asked which one it would be. They said they did not know. It depended on which ones they got at the beginning of each week. In the UK, all the jabs are free so I don't see people demanding a particular one. In the US where you pay for it I expect things would be different.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Script]

Read that the R value of the B1
.1.7 variant is somewhere around 1.65. Spreading quickly in Belgium right now.

My math is mostly no good but shouldn't a vaccine even like Sinovac's with an efficiency of only slightly above 50 percent still reduce that R value at least by half (provided everybody had received only that) ?

[Modify] No. But at least half the number of severely  ill patients !? [/modify]

 

[JohnRoberts]

Not so sure that will happen in the UK. When I got the phone call inviting me to have the jab I asked which one it would be. They said they did not know. It depended on which ones they got at the beginning of each week. In the UK, all the jabs are free so I don't see people demanding a particular one. In the US where you pay for it I expect things would be different.

Cheers

Ian

Maybe this should be in the Brexit thread but the EU demands for AstraZeneca delivery seems related. AstraZeneca is having vaccine production problems at their EU manufacturing plant (Belgium?). The EU wants them to divert supplies from their UK factory to the EU for distribution. AstraZeneca is a UK based company. 

JR

PS: The initial COVID vaccines are being distributed in the US without charge, but of course we all ultimately pay for them (these days with borrowed funds). 

 

[crazydoc]

Read that the R value of the B1
.1.7 variant is somewhere around 1.65. Spreading quickly in Belgium right now.

My math is mostly no good but shouldn't a vaccine even like Sinovac's with an efficiency of only slightly above 50 percent still reduce that R value at least by half (provided everybody had received only that) ?

[Modify] No. But at least half the number of severely  ill patients !? [/modify]

Some basic www searching shows it to be a whole lot more complicated than that (to me, anyway - so complicated I can't understand it), especially finding the R value since this is hugely influenced by non-pharmacological interventions in a population (such as masking, avoiding risky gatherings, etc.)

Scientists can calculate how well a vaccine candidate works by looking at the difference in new cases of the disease between the group receiving a placebo and the group receiving the experimental vaccine. This is called vaccine efficacy.

As COVID-19 vaccine research efforts seem to be yielding the first tangible results, the proportion of individuals needed to reap the benefits of herd immunity is a key element from a Public Health programs perspective. This magnitude, termed the critical immunization threshold (q), can be obtained from the classical SIR model equilibrium equation, equaling (1 − 1/R0)/ ϵ, where R0 is the basic reproduction number and ϵ is the vaccine efficacy.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-live-updates#6

So using your numbers (substituting R for R0), q=(1-1/1.65)/0.5 = 0.79. That is, 79% of the population would need to be immunized by that vaccine (or recovered and immune) to begin to stop the spread of that virus (I assume by making R<1.)

For me and mine, just give us the shots so we can return to a more normal feeling life, despite what others do.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Just saw an early report about J&J realizing something like 66% effectiveness with their one jab, more normal temperature vaccine. Since they say they can manufacture truckloads I'd like to see more vaccine availability (still patiently waiting).

JR

 

[Script]

For Sputnik they now claim 91.6 percent.

 

[Speedskater]

an IEEE page on the engineering of COVID vaccines:
https://read.nxtbook.com/ieee/spectrum/spectrum_na_january_2021/peering_into_the_pandemic_end.html?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWkdJd09UQTFObUUwWXpBdyIsInQiOiJOUTFleWM2RER2dE9WcDB0eHltRDBcL0E3NHVEMm00SEx3em8xT1lDaFpjZFdyd2dUNFJzQkc3bVo0VFh3TmoxV0R1MWR4cjlORENYUExxSjJVbExpRnVBd0l6dk1mZVQxbDQzOWNwOTVEMU9uRkFOTFN0UTAybFwvaEZEUWhkbkg0In0%3D

 

[JohnRoberts]

For Sputnik they now claim 91.6 percent.

Sputnik is a two dose vaccine and they have now finished phase three testing by vaccinating the Russian public.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

This study indicates that in locations where novel highly-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 lineages have not yet established, additional interventions among adults aged 20-49, such as mass vaccination with transmission-blocking vaccines, could bring resurgent COVID-19 epidemics under control and avert deaths.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/02/01/science.abe8372

Duh!

My own thoughts on vaccine priorities are as follows:

1) Workers with direct exposure to infected patients
2) People of age 18 to 49 - these are the largest proportion of the infected (in CA, 45% of the population and 60% of the cases), and are the least invested in curtailing its spread (bars, parties, avoiding mitigation measures, exposure in the workplace). Their immunity would have the greatest effect on curtailing the pandemic, though they are probably the least likely to accept vaccination
3) People of other ages who work in  essential jobs, and residents of care homes
4) Under 18's and pregnant women, once it is determined they can be safely vaccinated
5) All others - retired seniors should be last, since they are more able to isolate than others, and contribute the least to a functioning economy (except as consumers.)

Of course, vaccine availability and emotional responses would make this untenable.