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What do you guys think will be the outcome of the French election? All the polls were saying Clinton was going to win over here, so I'm not all that convinced by them this time. Were the polls saying Remain would win, too?
The humorous answer to all this is what would Captain Kirk (or Captain Picard) do? I somehow doubt they would suggest a carbon tax... They'd have Scotty (or Jordi) whip up a technology solution. I appreciate those are TV shows that require complete resolution in 50 minutes or less, but we are simultaneously being told this is an immediate crisis, with a centuries long tail.ruffrecords said:I agree it is often better to use your own common sense possibly tempered with a liberal dose of suspicion concerning the motives of certain people (politicians and scientists in this case)My personal gut feeling is we are being led up the garden path in order to cover up the real issues. There are two dangers. The obvious one is that it is in the interests of politicians and a lot of scientists to promote human CO2 emissions as the culprit. The more subtle one is the assumption that that reducing human CO2 emissions, assuming it actually happens, will actually make a difference. Human CO2 pundits studiously ignore two major factors that quite possibly have a far greater influence on climate than human CO2. The first is that big ball of nuclear gas in the sky called the sun. It is the power supply and we all know what happens when you get noise on a power supply. The second is water vapour which is much more of a greenhouse gas than CO2 and appears as clouds. The thing is they act as a moderator. If it gets hot and sunny the seas evaporate and produce clouds which cut down the heat reaching the surface by reflecting it back into space. I never see these two factors discussed.
What is more alarming to me is the climate could go either way independent of what we humans do. We could get a lot of warming no matter what we do but we are not prepared to meet the consequences. Equally, back in the 70s, scientists were predicting we were entering another ice age. This could yet be the case but again we are not prepared to meet it.
And don't get me started on the huge island of rubbish in the Pacific.
Cheers
Ian
Matador said:Yes, this has happened before due to myriad reasons: but doesn't explain what is happening now.
This is a good treatise : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5kejSYPD7U
ruffrecords said:What is happening now is not climate change it is just weather. You cannot extrapolate the future from such a small sample of data. It is like trying to predict the next few bars of a CD from a single digital sample.
That presentation is riddled with errors and as usual conveniently ignores facts that contradict it. I am offended that they call it Denial 101
Cheers
Ian
It's more like trying to predict the next few bars of a CD based on the previous 500,000 thousand playbacks. It's not guaranteed to be right, true, but if you knew that going in would you discard that knowledge because the chance wasn't 0.00000000000000000000%?ruffrecords said:What is happening now is not climate change it is just weather. You cannot extrapolate the future from such a small sample of data. It is like trying to predict the next few bars of a CD from a single digital sample.
What facts contradict what portions?ruffrecords said:That presentation is riddled with errors and as usual conveniently ignores facts that contradict it. I am offended that they call it Denial 101
That is an absolute statement that requires the burden of proof: which studies (and scientists) were biased, and what facts contradict them to lead you to that conclusion?s2udio said:Most mainstream scientists are also pushing politically biased viewpoints, not based on facts but " beliefs".
This is not true science !
Science is used to confuse the debate.Matador said:It's more like trying to predict the next few bars of a CD based on the previous 500,000 thousand playbacks. It's not guaranteed to be right, true, but if you knew that going in would you discard that knowledge because the chance wasn't 0.00000000000000000000%?
Let's start with the basics: do you accept the evidence of the conditions on Earth during previous periods of high CO2 levels? Mass extinctions? Large changes in vegetation mix and concentrations around the globe, which took many thousands of years of adjustment? Seas where there weren't any seas previous, and vise versa? Or is that all unknowable since nothing alive at the time isn't present to ask definitively?
What facts contradict what portions?
That is an absolute statement that requires the burden of proof: which studies (and scientists) were biased, and what facts contradict them to lead you to that conclusion?
And global cooling? Not too long ago, doctors would 'let blood' to cure a fever, thinking the blood 'held in heat'. They also thought removing teeth would cure insanity. Does the mere fact that this used to be standard practice mean nobody can ever visit a doctor ever again? Do you believe in MRI machines? Ohm's Law? Gravity? Or are those not true science either, because perceptions of these things have changed over time?
Well, that certainly explains your perception of the urgency. ;DJohnRoberts said:The only thing I can be certain about is that I won't see it.
I have actually been writing about this subject here for years...Matador said:Well, that certainly explains your perception of the urgency. ;D
I fully agree: the real question is what to do as a response. But we can't ever get there if we can't get past the 'Is anything even knowable, man?' faction of the population. If we can never agree on a baseline of objective reality then everything else become moot. The 'alternative facts' era is a strange one indeed.
I repeat the science debate is mainly a distraction, while political decisions are rarely made based on facts. Just what they can convince a majority to believe. If humans were critical thinkers we wouldn't buy different brands of gasoline that come from the same tanker.It's strange, because we don't have 50+ page threads here where we debate if Ohm's Law is true, and if we can really predict the basic operation of a circuit without building it first and observing it with our own eyes. It may be the case that there exists to-be-invented materials where Ohm's Law doesn't apply, but nobody proclaims that the mere possibility renders simulation and analysis as irrelevant, or a vast conspiracy by physics researchers to sell more licenses of Altium and PSpice.
Matador said:It's more like trying to predict the next few bars of a CD based on the previous 500,000 thousand playbacks. It's not guaranteed to be right, true, but if you knew that going in would you discard that knowledge because the chance wasn't 0.00000000000000000000%?
Let's start with the basics: do you accept the evidence of the conditions on Earth during previous periods of high CO2 levels? Mass extinctions? Large changes in vegetation mix and concentrations around the globe, which took many thousands of years of adjustment? Seas where there weren't any seas previous, and vise versa? Or is that all unknowable since nothing alive at the time isn't present to ask definitively?
What facts contradict what portions?
That is an absolute statement that requires the burden of proof: which studies (and scientists) were biased, and what facts contradict them to lead you to that conclusion?
And global cooling? Not too long ago, doctors would 'let blood' to cure a fever, thinking the blood 'held in heat'. They also thought removing teeth would cure insanity. Does the mere fact that this used to be standard practice mean nobody can ever visit a doctor ever again? Do you believe in MRI machines? Ohm's Law? Gravity? Or are those not true science either, because perceptions of these things have changed over time?
JohnRoberts said:My new theory and I am still working on it, is that this (carbon tax) is just another attempt to transfer wealth from the rich to the poor, but it seem tragically challenged at that since the poor will pay disproportionately for a carbon tax based on energy use.
JohnRoberts said:At the end of the day it looks like government force will somehow be involved to take wealth from people who earned it to subsidize people who can't work for whatever reason, like perhaps not many workers are needed. The big question is how to extract that wealth from those who have it without killing the host, or discouraging them from creating more wealth (not to mention that government is not the most trustworthy agency to distribute large amounts of money without fraud) .
JohnRoberts said:how much cheap energy should we forfeit over the next few centuries to hopefully address this vague speculation about future global harm? There is a huge real human cost for making energy more expensive mostly, to the developing economies we'll just suffer slower economic growth but they can suffer health problems.
JohnRoberts said:I repeat IMO this is not a question about science but about government decision making priorities, and desire to control the private economy.
JohnRoberts said:I am pretty confident that the human race will rise to the challenge when and if it ever becomes urgent (IMO it isn't yet).
JohnRoberts said:As I have said MANY times we are in the late interglacial period where warming has occurred in previous cycles.
JohnRoberts said:One track mind much? I was thinking more about new arable farmland in Canada, etc.
Heard that all before... Coincidentally this morning I read an article in the (Saturday) newspaper that the real situation that offends people is not inequality of wealth, but unequal opportunity.mattiasNYC said:Maybe that should tell you that your hypothesis is wrong then.
And the "transfer of wealth" is going from the poor to the rich.
The wealthy owning class aren't the people that actually create true wealth, true wealth is created by the working class. It is actual labor that produces wealth, not ownership. You're just perpetuating the myth that there's this transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor, when in fact the rich keep not only getting richer but increasing the distance between them and the rest of people. That, by definition, is a transfer of wealth.
JohnRoberts said:Heard that all before...
JohnRoberts said:Coincidentally this morning I read an article in the (Saturday) newspaper that the real situation that offends people is not inequality of wealth, but unequal opportunity.
This is good news because we can and should increase opportunity for all. That in fact (IMO?) is one thing that differentiates America from many countries.
JohnRoberts said:But we can make it even better... I think we are failing the younger generation with shoddy education. WTF is going on with college campuses shutting down free speech. The first amendment was first for a reason.
mattiasNYC said:The wealthy owning class aren't the people that actually create true wealth, true wealth is created by the working class. It is actual labor that produces wealth, not ownership. You're just perpetuating the myth that there's this transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor, when in fact the rich keep not only getting richer but increasing the distance between them and the rest of people. That, by definition, is a transfer of wealth.
That is interesting but a little simplistic...ruffrecords said:That is not the problem. The problem is that the commonly used framework that creates the wealth is itself divisive. It stops both the owners (investors is a more accurate word) and the labour getting as wealthy as they could. The reason is the framework tends not to allow the labour to gain ownership of part of the investment. This disincentives them, reduces productivity and creates the well known them and us syndrome. There are plenty of examples of very successful companies where this framework has been discarded and replaced by one where the labour gains not only wages, but shares in exchange for its labour. A point is soon reached where a large proportion, and often a majority, of shares are owned by the labour. Labour is incentivised, productivity soars and a lot more wealth is created for all.
It is not capitalism that is wrong, it is the implementation.
Cheers
Ian
JohnRoberts said:That is interesting but a little simplistic...
How would the worker owned business deal with automation and layoffs?
Agreed, and the environment that incentivises all employees promotes creativity rather than stifling it.Wealth is not created just by labor, or capital, but there also must be some creative input that combines the capital and labor in such a way to make something more valuable than the input cost (AKA profit). (The drum tuners I sell are worth more than the parts cost because it does something of value).
On paper there is no reason why what you propose can't work, but I would like to see successful large scale examples. More commonly workers (unions) get granted ownership in some kind of bankruptcy settlement and the businesses rarely prosper from there. IIRC VW unions own a share of VW group, with local government on the board too... VW is doing OK if we ignore the cheating and fines. They do not seem at risk of going down. German companies have a more holistic (? partnering) relationships with labor.
JR
Happy Real Labor Day. Thank a socialist for you not dying in a coal mine disaster when you were 7 yrs old working 12 hr days for 50 cts./hr
That is not the problem. The problem is that the commonly used framework that creates the wealth is itself divisive. It stops both the owners (investors is a more accurate word) and the labour getting as wealthy as they could. The reason is the framework tends not to allow the labour to gain ownership of part of the investment. This disincentives them, reduces productivity and creates the well known them and us syndrome. There are plenty of examples of very successful companies where this framework has been discarded and replaced by one where the labour gains not only wages, but shares in exchange for its labour. A point is soon reached where a large proportion, and often a majority, of shares are owned by the labour. Labour is incentivised, productivity soars and a lot more wealth is created for all.
It is not capitalism that is wrong, it is the implementation.
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