Brexit

[s2udio]

Always amazes me as how a government "report" predicts, as many have stated "the unknown" effect of Brexit.
Especially when 90% of said government don't want leave the EU, fearmongering bias and unsubstantiated statistics perhaps ?

 

[Script]

'Fearmongering' was yesteryear 

-------

This assessment  bears the handwriting of Ms May and most of it is not news at all -- if you follow news from diverse sources closely.

Personally I find more interesting what the report does not say. As the things have progressed, there will be disruption. Claiming anything else is being deceptive. Question is who will end up paying the bill. How high the bill? Don't know.

But I am quite sure it is not the 10% of UK PMs who openly voice that they absolutely must leave -- even under no deal.... ... And it won't be big business either... ...

 

[DaveP]

It's worth mentioning just as a point of reference that the 2007/8 economic crisis, which lead to austerity measures like huge reductions in NHS funding, reduced police budgets, the destruction of the welfare system, lead to a 3-4% reduction in the size of the British economy.

So no deal Brexit is likely to cause to the UK 1.5 to 3 x the damage that the global financial crisis did.

This is the same conclusion that I came to and most of British business too.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

It appears that France and Germany are receptive to more talks with UK, I don't know how much influence they have with Brussels, should be a bunch but who knows.

JR 

 

[zamproject]

It appears that France and Germany are receptive to more talks with UK, I don't know how much influence they have with Brussels, should be a bunch but who knows.

JR

hello JR

They don't exactly say that, they just don't lock the door for an  extend to the brexit dead line, but before the European poll (late may for a late May...)
IMHO there is no way to "renegotiate" what already take years, and the back stop is unsolvable...except UK implosions...
I guess the (probable) delay will help everybody to handle and save/anticipate what's possible in a no deal case...both side need this room, so EU agree, but not for more talk...

Best
Zam

 

[Script]

Jacek Czaputowicz, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, says he wants to avoid 'no deal' no matter what the cost. Little surprising. But not so sure about the rest of EU countries.

The backstop solution itself (if it can be called that at all, cos more like a postponement) is a huge 'concession' on the EU side already. Solutions / alternatives:

-- Hard border, in the event of no deal, but also what it should have been under a 'whatever' deal scenario in the first place (the concession)
-- only a thought experiment: the two Ireland's have to unite, either under UK or EU, or as independent...

Anyways, given history and the present constellation and, most importantly, what the two Ireland's themselves think of all this, what's more likely?

-----

Good to hear that Parliament vowed to grant rights to EU citizens already living in UK even under no deal. Finally coming to terms with reality.

 

[zamproject]

Anyways, given history and the present constellation and, most importantly, what the two Ireland's themselves think of all this, what's more likely?

Ireland rep is not "concerned" by the brexit and northern Ireland voted close to 56% remain... the best that can happen is a reunification (to Irl republic of course  ;D)

Honestly if we have brexit (whatever deal) I personally won't bet on UK, what will do the Scotish (62% remain !!) in a mid time range ? This is devastating, and EU has nothing to do with it, only English politician... some vomit undemocratic EU, and now will force by fact some country of the United Kingdom to give up they vote/choices ?

The whole thing is the most irrational possible move... hopefully my taxes now will go to responsible parliamentarian at Brussel and Strasbourg, some who build something, and not some that still take 8K per month (like Nigel Farage) to destroy what give them a full plate every day.

Best
Zam

 

[ruffrecords]

The whole thing is the most irrational possible move... hopefully my taxes now will go to responsible parliamentarian at Brussel and Strasbourg, some who build something, and not some that still take 8K per month (like Nigel Farage) to destroy what give them a full plate every day.

Best
Zam

Clearly Nigel Farage is no politician otherwise he would have been a good boy, taken the 8K and STFU. 

But hang on, he was voted for by a bunch of Brits who wanted him to get them out of the EU

Cheers

Ian

 

[Mike Havok]

Clearly Nigel Farage is no politician otherwise he would have been a good boy, taken the 8K and STFU. 

But hang on, he was voted for by a bunch of Brits who wanted him to get them out of the EU

Cheers

Ian

No he just took the 8K and didn't bother to turn up 60% of the time. Way to represent the people who voted for him

 

[ruffrecords]

No he just took the 8K and didn't bother to turn up 60% of the time. Way to represent the people who voted for him

I am not sure of your point. His mandate was to get Britain out of the EU. That he appears to have achieved. How is that not representing those who voted for him?

Cheers

Ian

 

[Script]

Sounds like it's raining down harder. Toyota weighing option to leave UK. Hmm.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Toyota-says-leaving-UK-in-2023-an-option-under-no-deal-Brexit

Wondering how feasible, if possible at all, the 'secret' UK plan of abolishing tariffs in the event of a no deal exit actually is.

 

[abbey road d enfer]

Sounds like it's raining down harder. Toyota weighing option to leave UK. Hmm.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Toyota-says-leaving-UK-in-2023-an-option-under-no-deal-Brexit

Wondering how feasible, if possible at all, the 'secret' UK plan of abolishing tariffs in the event of a no deal exit actually is.

Maverick! I would think there would be a reaction from the EU if they did that; UK can't lose the european market.

 

[Script]

Maverick as in 'Pirates of the North Sea, Atlantic and beyond'?

Or maverick as in 'direct corporate sponsoring' rebranded into 'corporate aid programme' from the state?

 

[abbey road d enfer]

Maverick as in 'Pirates of the North Sea, Atlantic and beyond'?

Or maverick as in 'direct corporate sponsoring' rebranded into 'corporate aid programme' from the state?

Maverick as in the Cambridge definition: "a person who thinks and acts in an independent way, often behaving differently from the expected or usual way".
It is often used in a complimentary way, but in my case, it's not. Being unorthodox is not always a guarantee of being good; we have too many examples of that, unfortunately.

 

[Mike Havok]

I am not sure of your point. His mandate was to get Britain out of the EU. That he appears to have achieved. How is that not representing those who voted for him?

Cheers

Ian

So what did he actually do in the European Parliament that lead to Britain leaving the EU?
Wasn't it Cameron who called the referendum & May who enacted article 50?

 

[Script]

Yes, Cameron and May. Nigel had been a 'spy' sent to Brussels, who by the end of June 2016 had served his sole purpose of being seminal in campaigning -- and hence retired.

Anyways, apart from the brexit referendum never having been 'legally binding' for Cameron (cos the government is sovereign, whereas the 2011 referendum on changing the electoral system had been binding), the government could easily explain why triggering Article 50 on March 29, 2017, alone had honoured the outcome of the referendum to the fullest already. Never understood the obsession of May et al. in the first place. Must be pride and maybe an attempt (with necessity projected to be imposed from the outside) to regain trust of the electorate --  honourable motives for sure, but also somewhat dodgy 'advisors'.

---

Cox allegedly saying that the backstop would breech the human rights of people in Northern Ireland? Interesting, but he sure is not calling for Northern Ireland to get some sort of a seat in the EU, is he?

Older article on this (Aug. 29, 2018):
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-debate-ignoring-potential-erosion-of-human-rights-1.3610399

 

[ruffrecords]

So what did he actually do in the European Parliament that lead to Britain leaving the EU?

He didn't have to do anything much. The fact that he was elected on a platform of get UK out of Europe was enough.

Wasn't it Cameron who called the referendum & May who enacted article 50?

And what do you think decided Cameron to call the referendum if not the rise of UKIP?

Cheers

Ian

 

[Mike Havok]

He didn't have to do anything much. The fact that he was elected on a platform of get UK out of Europe was enough.

So you agree that he didn't use his position as an MEP to initiate or facilitate the UK leaving Europe?
What prompted my initial comment was how Farage made a big song and dance about how the EU was killing Britain's fishing industry. Yet when he was on the Fisheries Committee, a position where he could actually HELP Britain and their fishing industry, he only turned up to 1 out of 42 meetings.
He couldn't be bothered to turn up and try and make a difference to the people he pretended to care so deeply about. We all remember his boat stunt, throwing fish into the Thames to protest against EU fishing regulations.

And what do you think decided Cameron to call the referendum if not the rise of UKIP?

Cheers

Ian

Labour. If Cameron hadn't felt so threatened by Labour then he wouldn't have felt the need to try and increase their party numbers by winning over UKIP voters with the referendum stunt.

 

[ruffrecords]

So you agree that he didn't use his position as an MEP to initiate or facilitate the UK leaving Europe?

I disagree (see below)

What prompted my initial comment was how Farage made a big song and dance about how the EU was killing Britain's fishing industry. Yet when he was on the Fisheries Committee, a position where he could actually HELP Britain and their fishing industry, he only turned up to 1 out of 42 meetings.
He couldn't be bothered to turn up and try and make a difference to the people he pretended to care so deeply about. We all remember his boat stunt, throwing fish into the Thames to protest against EU fishing regulations.

UKIP always was a small party. In the EU parliament and its committees it had zero influence. It's importance lay in giving UK voters a chance (via proportional representation) to voice their dissatisfaction with the EU. This in turn led to greater exposure of the party at home and greater success in home elections and ultimately in effectively forcing Cameron to hold the referendum to shut him and the dissenters up. We all know how that turned out.

Labour. If Cameron hadn't felt so threatened by Labour then he wouldn't have felt the need to try and increase their party numbers by winning over UKIP voters with the referendum stunt.

Cameron was never afraid of Labour. Corbyn was and is its worst asset. It only has a voice now because of remainers.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Matador]

Looks like May lost another deal vote.