COVID-19

[JohnRoberts]

This has just become all too real for my family. It was bad enough hearing three weeks ago that one of my wife's sisters had passed away from liver failure. What made it worse was we could not attend the funeral or even send flowers. All we could do was send a card.

As if that was not bad enough, this morning we heard that another of my wife's sisters had a fall a week ago and was taken to hospital. There she was tested for Corona virus and found to be positive. She rapidly deteriorated, her breathing became very difficult and she passed away this morning. Needless to say my wife and her brother (who lives quite near us) are devastated.

Ian

RIP...

JR

 

[fazer]

Sorry for your Loss Ian.
RIP

 

[Tubetec]

Sincerest sympathies Ian ,
to both you and your family at this difficult time .

 

[scott2000]

It's interesting what this guy has to say...however, he does not explain why IR's all over the world are getting flooded with patients needing ventilators for sometimes 4 weeks in a row. It's not like this is happening every year like he's suggesting...

Revisiting this.... I have never looked into this before but, the overload of systems doesn't actually seem to be a new thing. I'm  shocked at the similarities through previous flu  seasons although I'm barely able to understand what I'm reading tbh....

 

[radiance]

Revisiting this.... I have never looked into this before but, the overload of systems doesn't actually seem to be a new thing. I'm  shocked at the similarities through previous flu  seasons although I'm barely able to understand what I'm reading tbh....

I read some more about the similarities between the 2017 / 2018 flu pandemic and the current Covid 19 pandemic ..

- Covid 19 is just starting, way to soon to jump to conclusions like the German guy from the video
- Death rate from the 2017/2018 was also high, got way less press coverage (almost none) , but Covid death count is still counting
- time in hospital during Flu pandemic was way shorter and most of the time not in an intensive care unit. Covid 19 patience spend up to 4 weeks in an intensive care unit with breathing support.
- During the Flu pandemic people could get a Flu vaccine, Covid 19 vaccine is nowhere near finished.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I read some more about the similarities between the 2017 / 2018 flu pandemic and the current Covid 19 pandemic ..

- Covid 19 is just starting, way to soon to jump to conclusions like the German guy from the video

I watched the surgeon video... a little goofy but appears to be an accurate mechanical description of how COVID kills compromised patients (perhaps intended to scare people into social distancing).

If people start cleaning their hands and not touching their face, it will probably reduce spread of influenzas too.

- Death rate from the 2017/2018 was also high, got way less press coverage (almost none) , but Covid death count is still counting

we tend to discount routine deaths (like flu, traffic accidents, suicides, etc). Covid 19 is the new (novel), scary, bad guy.

- time in hospital during Flu pandemic was way shorter and most of the time not in an IR. Covid 19 patience spend up to 4 weeks in an IR.

I tried searching IR and get "interventional radiology". I suspect that isn't it.

perhaps Intensive care, with breathing support?

- During the Flu pandemic people could get a Flu vaccine, Covid 19 vaccine is nowhere near finished.

Industry is pedaling as fast as they can, reportedly multiple vaccines in the works, but indeed it generally takes a year to turn a vaccine for a new strain (some already in early test stages).  That can make a difference for next year and later return cycles, but for now we need to deal with current infection cycle and no vaccine or herd immunity.

Flu vaccines are far from a perfect science as there are numerous flu strains in circulation any year and vaccines cannot protect against all of them. I am not a big fan of flu shots but I let my former doctor talk me into them. She retired over a year ago ( too young but because of ACA and she could). The new clinic doctor is not as persuasive as she was, didn't even try (sorry if this is TMI).

====

I have more questions than answers... but this is a pretty well informed group, at least some of you are, so I'll ask here.

1-  is COVID-19 transmissible from infected but asymptomatic people?  (I suspect yes, but this makes fever screening dubious.)

2- If people only get mild infections, are they a) protected and b) not infectious?  (I hope yes)

3- Can recovered people get reinfected with mutated COVID19..? I guess that would not be called COVID19.  (Kind of like flu so I suspect yes).

4- WHEN will we get personal antibody tests we can easily perform at home (like home pregnancy tests)? This could be a game changer, and I suspect multiple companies are working on them.

=====

Less pressing question but does the demographic trend of people living longer mean that we as an older population need to take more precautions (like having more ventilators/respirators, etc) available for the future ICUs. 

JR

 

[L´Andratté]

This link posted earlier in this thread is an interview with David Ho, 2 weeks old,
but most honest answers to some of your questions I have come across yet (but who am I)
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19

Another question: are their any known signs of mutation, mutated streaks?

 

[crazydoc]

This link posted earlier in this thread is an interview with David Ho, 2 weeks old,
but most honest answers to some of your questions I have come across yet (but who am I)
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19

Another question: are their any known signs of mutation, mutated streaks?

Very good interview with the best answers I've seen. I think the most pressing problem at this time is to get those point-of-care tests out there in the millions. The delays make me wonder if there is some type of financial quid pro quo going on here with the FDA - whoever produces those tests stands to make a bundle. The way to document the answers to JR's first 2 questions is through both types of tests - PCR to see who's infected presymptomatically and post recovery, and serology to see who's presumably immune, and to document past asymptomatic infection if it exists to any significant degree, to see who can go back to work.

 

[Pusch3l]

I have more questions than answers... but this is a pretty well informed group, at least some of you are, so I'll ask here.

1-  is COVID-19 transmissible from infected but asymptomatic people?  (I suspect yes, but this makes fever screening dubious.)

2- If people only get mild infections, are they a) protected and b) not infectious?  (I hope yes)

3- Can recovered people get reinfected with mutated COVID19..? I guess that would not be called COVID19.  (Kind of like flu so I suspect yes).

4- WHEN will we get personal antibody tests we can easily perform at home (like home pregnancy tests)? This could be a game changer, and I suspect multiple companies are working on them.

Hello JR,
try to answer as best as my knowledge is.
i think the german people here know the name "Drosten" from the Charité Berlin. He does a daily Podcast on NDR where he
makes the Sars-CoV-2 Virus understandable.


1 - Yes, this virus is transmissible from asymptomatic people. It even is transmissible from people that got the Sars-CoV-2 Virus one or 2 days ago but didnt break out Covid-19.

2 - i think (and thats my personal opinion) you are protected after the 2 weeks that most suggest for staying in personal quarantine. but if the Virus mutates then i think you can get it again. But mutation or not: everbody that catches the Virus is infectious to other people.

3 - i believe nobody will think or has talked about a mutated Sars-Cov-2 virus. but it will be the same as with the Hi-Virus:
if you have a working antidote or medicine for the original strain than it wont work on any mutation that virus made and you get ill again. maybe the symptoms are milder maybe harder we dont know that yet.


thats an emotional topic, as my parents fits perfectly in the riskgroup. Both around 70, my Dad has Morbus Crohn and COPD and my mum high blood pressure.. so i am very aware that they can both die this year....

my condolences to you and your family Ian.

 

[ruffrecords]

Boris has been taken to hospital because his condition is not improving.

Cheers

Ian

 

[gltech]

This has just become all too real for my family. It was bad enough hearing three weeks ago that one of my wife's sisters had passed away from liver failure. What made it worse was we could not attend the funeral or even send flowers. All we could do was send a card.

As if that was not bad enough, this morning we heard that another of my wife's sisters had a fall a week ago and was taken to hospital. There she was tested for Corona virus and found to be positive. She rapidly deteriorated, her breathing became very difficult and she passed away this morning. Needless to say my wife and her brother (who lives quite near us) are devastated.

Ian

I send my most sincere condolences Ian. This could easily become any of us.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Hello JR,
try to answer as best as my knowledge is.
i think the german people here know the name "Drosten" from the Charité Berlin. He does a daily Podcast on NDR where he
makes the Sars-CoV-2 Virus understandable.

thanks .. the Ho video answered most of my questions...

1 - Yes, this virus is transmissible from asymptomatic people. It even is transmissible from people that got the Sars-CoV-2 Virus one or 2 days ago but didnt break out Covid-19.

per the video viral shedding was reported at 30 days, but that may be an outlier...

2 - i think (and thats my personal opinion) you are protected after the 2 weeks that most suggest for staying in personal quarantine. but if the Virus mutates then i think you can get it again. But mutation or not: everbody that catches the Virus is infectious to other people.

3 - i believe nobody will think or has talked about a mutated Sars-Cov-2 virus. but it will be the same as with the Hi-Virus:
if you have a working antidote or medicine for the original strain than it wont work on any mutation that virus made and you get ill again. maybe the symptoms are milder maybe harder we dont know that yet.


thats an emotional topic, as my parents fits perfectly in the riskgroup. Both around 70, my Dad has Morbus Crohn and COPD and my mum high blood pressure.. so i am very aware that they can both die this year....

my condolences to you and your family Ian.

I am over 70 YO but relatively healthy....  I have been social distancing for decades...

JR

 

[radiance]

I I tried searching IR and get "interventional radiology". I suspect that isn't it.

My bad, meant to say IC or Intensive Care...and yes, with breading support.

 

[JohnRoberts]

My bad, meant to say IC 0r Intensive Care...and yes, with breading support.

no worries that was my first guess...

JR

 

[scott2000]

- Covid 19 is just starting, way to soon to jump to conclusions like the German guy from the video

I agree...Fair to say some jumping isn't an uncommon thing regardless ....

- Death rate from the 2017/2018 was also high, got way less press coverage (almost none) , but Covid death count is still counting

Agree..Looks like 80000 flu deaths  in US 2017/2018 ...Highest in 4 decades ...I never knew ...

https://web.archive.org/web/20180927010143/https://weather.com/news/news/2018-09-26-80000-died-of-flu-last-winter-us

- time in hospital during Flu pandemic was way shorter and most of the time not in an intensive care unit. Covid 19 patience spend up to 4 weeks in an intensive care unit with breathing support.

I wouldn't know. I'm guessing these figures aren't mixed in with other issues.... Which there are a lot of.... Always a chance with this new thing that some things could be mistaken,etc.... I have faith in everyone doing their best though.....

this is older data....??

"More than 5 million patients are admitted annually to U.S. ICUs ..."
"The most common technological support is mechanical ventilation, required by 20%-40% of U.S. ICU admissions"
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics

- During the Flu pandemic people could get a Flu vaccine, Covid 19 vaccine is nowhere near finished.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182

"the 2018-2019 flu vaccine was roughly 29% effective"
"2019-2020 vaccine is estimated to be 45% effective overall and 55% effective in children."


I think the point of the video was to become curious. I'm not sure anything he was saying in regards to sensationalism is completely out of touch either. I'm definitely not saying that's happening but I am fascinated that it made me look at other things. I was talking with my sister today and we were shocked at some of the numbers.....Even something like 175 people dying on cruise ships last year....

This is a huge wake up call... I'm hoping life will change for the better after this has absorbed into every day life. I know I will never be the same.....

 

[kambo]

Agree..Looks like 80000 flu deaths  in US 2017/2018 ...Highest in 4 decades ...I never knew ...

I never knew either...
these old estimates are actually scary!
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

 

[scott2000]

Thanks for that ....So many pages of data it's easy to get lost.....

Here's the weekly flu report for this year....

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

it's weird that there's strong media coverage of when one younger person dies  from Covid but ..

"162 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic."

Nothing to report about here..... I'm guessing it's just new information that is important. Like keeping everyone updated on how this new virus is affecting people.... But I was under the impression that it's something never before seen.... that's my mistake but, I didn't hear anything like "keep in mind that the flu killed 162 children this year " .... 

Seeing that H1N1 around a lot..... I guess this is what we have to look forward to when the Covid becomes under control??? 

 

[JohnRoberts]

I do not want to play this up or down disproportionately, a lot of people die everyday from all causes, this is just the latest new one.

Media tries to scare viewers into watching with relatable risks.... "this could be you, or yours dying".

I am optimistic that the smartest people in government and private industry are working on solutions, but they will take time so we need to be smart and patient.

JR

 

[radiance]

....
I think the point of the video was to become curious. I'm not sure anything he was saying in regards to sensationalism is completely out of touch either. I'm definitely not saying that's happening but I am fascinated that it made me look at other things. ....

Exactly!

 

[simonsez]

Hello, I'am very sorry for those who has lost a love one  :'( , but I wonder why the the case number in US and Europe  is so high? weather factor? genetic?