COVID-19

[crazydoc]

Now that things are "opening up," mandatory face coverings would be an important part of limiting the spread of the virus due to significant asymptomatic shedding.

"An editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine in late April called asymptomatic transmission 'the Achilles’ heel of COVID-19 pandemic control through the public health strategies we have currently deployed.'

In another study, also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, 56% of residents at a skilled nursing facility in Washington state’s King County who initially tested positive showed no symptoms at the time, but most of them later did show signs of illness. It took a median of four days for them to show symptoms.

Visibly healthy people can be omitted from efforts aimed at trying to identify infected people, such as attempting to screen incoming airline passengers from overseas.

Further, a silent spreader can transmit the coronavirus simply by talking. Loud talking can emit thousands of saliva droplets per second, and researchers recently found that, in a stagnant air environment, droplets of fluid sprayed from the mouth remained in the air for as long as eight to 14 minutes before drying up.

'These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments,' said the authors in a study published May 13 by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

That’s why it’s so important to adhere to social distancing and wearing masks, experts say."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-california-reopens-a-silent-coronavirus-threat-still-looms/ar-BB14G1rI?ocid=bingcovid

However, I know of very few government mandated mask use in public places anywhere in the US, and leadership at the top (monkey see, monkey do) is non-existent. So it looks like the game plan is to continue to let the virus spread, and  keep the infectious rate low enough that it doesn't overwhelm the health system again until vaccination can be instituted.

 

[crazydoc]

Any idea how effective the H3N2 vaccine is? It's been around a while....

Influenza has significant antigenic drift, needing re-formulation each year, and hoping it doesn't drift too much between vaccine formulation and use, not to mention formulation against the various viral subtypes. These are complications to making an effective flu vaccine.

Immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is unknown at this point - the amount of neutralizing antibodies it produces after infection in different individuals, how long they last, and how much antigenic drift might occur. So a vaccine will probably be a crap shoot for awhile. But even if it's less than 50% effective in disease prevention, with short lived immunity, it will help, especially if it can diminish the virulence of the disease in those who are infected.

I know it's a lot more complicated - this is just my limited knowledge $.02.

 

[analag]

I'm sure I had this covid crap back in January when I came back from the island. Felt like a weird flu I could not shake. Soon it will be a memory as the herd self immunize. Sorry to say some will die but more will live. I have family members with and if they didn't get tested they wouldn't know it.   

 

[crazydoc]

I'm sure I had this covid crap back in January when I came back from the island.

Then get a good antibody test (or two or three.) I'd rather know if I'd had it or not, but that's just me. I reckon pretty soon they'll be doing millions of antibody tests worldwide to determine the prevalence.

 

[Script]

I'm sure I had this covid crap back in January

Sure? January? If so , why not get an antibody test and if positive go donate plasma to help save some folks ??

 

[JohnRoberts]

There may be something positive from all the bad social distancing discipline "not" followed by protestors over the last week.

This will be a test to see if we get a second wave of Covid-19 infections. I suspect some people might actually want this to further weaken our economy (sorry mind reading again).

We'll find out soon enough (weeks).

JR

 

[Bo Deadly]

I suspect some people might actually want this to further weaken our economy (sorry mind reading again).

I'm guessing this is some wacky conspiracy theory but I must admit I'm curious: Who exactly might want to further weaken our economy?

 

[JohnRoberts]

I'm guessing this is some wacky conspiracy theory but I must admit I'm curious: Who exactly might want to further weaken our economy?

i responded in the covid politics thread,,, sorry for conflating the two...

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

A swedish health official admitted that in hindsight they could have saved lives by shutting down their economy more than they did.

JR

 

 

[Bo Deadly]

A swedish health official admitted that in hindsight they could have saved lives by shutting down their economy more than they did.

Well of course. But realize that an increase in deaths from corona now will be followed by a dip in deaths later.  Meaning many of the people who died from corona will no longer be in the pool of individuals who would have died over the next few years from exactly the conditions that made them vulnerable to corona. The only way to really tell what policies turn out to be "better" is to integrate all deaths (not just corona) over a few years before and after the corona epoch and then see if there really is a net difference. It could turn out that there's actually a net positive for Swedes because they acquired a higher level of herd immunity and it made them more resistant to future outbreaks. Of course no one likes to talk about deaths as just statistics so all of this stuff tends to get simplified into a binary result.

 

[Script]

A swedish health official admitted that in hindsight they could have saved lives
by shutting down their economy more than they did.

You mean Anders Tegnell ? Not just a health officials -- he's the figurehead of the Swedish strategy and the current state epidemiologist of Sweden. Undeniably, their strategy has led to the death of too many elderly people (protecting them has been one of the two explicit goals, the other being flattening the curve). He also said that had they known back then what they know of the desease today, they might have opted for a strategy much closer to the rest of Europe.
---------

What I really like here is that they clearly pinpoint a mistake. Admittance is often the first step to successful improvement -- and there clearly has not been enough of that in other parts of the world.

As of now, having high infection numbers, Sweden is facing being excluded for now from the travel bubble between other Scandinavian countries. Also, as of now, their strategy has not led to an overall clear and larger-scale benefit with regard to their economy, which is reported down by 7.5 percent (pretty much not unlike the rest of Europe).

---------
Large parts of Sweden are open countryside with low population density. Probably no need to enforce strictest of lockdowns there in the first place (also not good psychologically). Definitely something that other countries can and are in the process of adopting -- meaning: flexibly adjusting lockdowns, restrictions, any kind of measures on a much more local level by taking into account population density, number of infections, number of available hospital beds, general infrastructure, geography, commuter routes etc etc. Dense cities are at a clear disadvantage here.

 

[Script]

Well of course. But realize that an increase in deaths from corona now will be followed by a dip in deaths later.  Meaning many of the people who died from corona will no longer be in the pool of individuals who would have died over the next few years from exactly the conditions that made them vulnerable to corona

In terms of binaries, what you describe here does not sound like the Swedish model to me.

 

[crazydoc]

Now that things are "opening up," mandatory face coverings would be an important part of limiting the spread of the virus due to significant asymptomatic shedding.

"An editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine in late April called asymptomatic transmission 'the Achilles’ heel of COVID-19 pandemic control through the public health strategies we have currently deployed.'

In another study, also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, 56% of residents at a skilled nursing facility in Washington state’s King County who initially tested positive showed no symptoms at the time, but most of them later did show signs of illness. It took a median of four days for them to show symptoms.

Visibly healthy people can be omitted from efforts aimed at trying to identify infected people, such as attempting to screen incoming airline passengers from overseas.

Further, a silent spreader can transmit the coronavirus simply by talking. Loud talking can emit thousands of saliva droplets per second, and researchers recently found that, in a stagnant air environment, droplets of fluid sprayed from the mouth remained in the air for as long as eight to 14 minutes before drying up.

'These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments,' said the authors in a study published May 13 by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

That’s why it’s so important to adhere to social distancing and wearing masks, experts say."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-california-reopens-a-silent-coronavirus-threat-still-looms/ar-BB14G1rI?ocid=bingcovid

However, I know of very few government mandated mask use in public places anywhere in the US, and leadership at the top (monkey see, monkey do) is non-existent. So it looks like the game plan is to continue to let the virus spread, and  keep the infectious rate low enough that it doesn't overwhelm the health system again until vaccination can be instituted.

Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
Renyi Zhang, View ORCID ProfileYixin Li, Annie L. Zhang, View ORCID ProfileYuan Wang, and Mario J. Molina
PNAS first published June 11, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009637117

Contributed by Mario J. Molina, May 16, 2020 (sent for review May 14, 2020; reviewed by Manish Shrivastava and Tong Zhu)

Significance

"We have elucidated the transmission pathways of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in the three epicenters. Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics."

So, "open up the economy" and don't wear face coverings. MAGA

 

[scott2000]

"the evidence was insufficient to exclude chance as an
explanation for the reduced risk of transmission. Some studies reported that low compliance in
face mask use could reduce their effectiveness. A study suggested that surgical and N95 (respirator)
masks were effective in preventing the spread of influenza (71)."

OVERALL RESULT OF EVIDENCE ON FACE MASKS
1. Ten RCTs were included in the meta-analysis, and there was no evidence that face
masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza

https://www.who.int/influenza/publications/public_health_measures/publication/en/



Is this because the particles we're talking about are so small?

 

[JohnRoberts]

I stopped trusting WHO several months ago.

We should soon see if the mass demonstrations caused another spike or not.

JR 

 

[cyrano]

The main problem with masks is that people tend to use them in incorrect ways.

Besides, we're also ducking problem #1: door handles. You CAN adapt the surgeon's habit, opening door handles with your elbow. Doesn't work on every door though. And you still have to avoid touching your elbow afterwards. So no leaning with your elbows on the table, I'm afraid...

 

[crazydoc]

I stopped trusting WHO several months ago.

WHO had nothing to do with the paper I quoted.  The authors of the study, published by the National Academy of Sciences (founded in 1863 by Lincoln),  work at US universities and one of whom is a Nobel laureate.

We should soon see if the mass demonstrations caused another spike or not.

Agreed, most of whom seemed to be wearing masks. Also be interesting to see on 4th of July if the rally in Tulsa OK on 6/20 causes a spike in the participants, assuming there's no "cover up" (both definitions.)

 

[JohnRoberts]

WHO had nothing to do with the paper I quoted.  The authors of the study, published by the National Academy of Sciences (founded in 1863 by Lincoln),  work at US universities and one of whom is a Nobel laureate.

I didn't say they did... I was responding to what looked like a WHO link in scott's post

Agreed, most of whom seemed to be wearing masks. Also be interesting to see on 4th of July if the rally in Tulsa OK on 6/20 causes a spike in the participants, assuming there's no "cover up" (both definitions.)

As  sign perhaps of returning openness, I noticed that my neighbor's typical driveway full of family after sunday church has returned. Must mean church is open. 

I also saw police speed traps on the interstate last two weeks in a row, during my weekly shopping trip.

Next thing you know my local bank branch will reopen, before they close again for good in Sept. Brick and mortar banks are another old tech challenged by post covid changes accelerating cashless transactions. 

JR

 

[crazydoc]

Ah, but would any cases arising from the date-shuffled Tulsa rally  count as real or fake since attendees have to sign waivers?

That's why this is in the quote that you truncated:  'assuming there's no "cover up" (both definitions.)'

To save anyone the time from looking it up:

cov·er-up
/ˈkəvərˌəp/
noun
noun: cover-up; plural noun: cover-ups; noun: coverup; plural noun: coverups

    1.
    an attempt to prevent people's discovering the truth about a serious mistake or crime.
    "they claim he did not gun down the president and insist there was a cover-up"
    2.
    a loose outer garment, as worn over a swimsuit or exercise outfit. (and I would add face)

 

[JohnRoberts]

The main problem with masks is that people tend to use them in incorrect ways.

speaking of masks, 3M sued a distributor who was selling their n95 masks with something like a 2x mark up... The price is supposed to be around $1.50 .

I notice that BYD (China's biggest electric car company) finally got their N95 masks approved by NIOSH or whomever approves such things. They have $B worth of sales pending to CA, WA, and Japan...Looks like they are getting more like $2 ea in millions quantity. No wonder they are making them instead of electric cars.

Besides, we're also ducking problem #1: door handles. You CAN adapt the surgeon's habit, opening door handles with your elbow. Doesn't work on every door though. And you still have to avoid touching your elbow afterwards. So no leaning with your elbows on the table, I'm afraid...

I have worried about the postoffice door handle for my daily mail pick-up, like shaking hands with all the other customers. I couldn't open that door with my elbow on a bet. (washing my hands afterwards is fair practice.)

JR