COVID-19

[Tubetec]

A friend sent me a link to this , seems to be getting very widespread backing, its also a bitsize chunk and easy to understand .

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6

One of the points it raises is lockdown reduces exposure to direct sunlight which helps produce vitamin D, which in turn is a key factor in in how your body deals with the infection.

 

[JohnRoberts]

A friend sent me a link to this , seems to be getting very widespread backing, its also a bitsize chunk and easy to understand .

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6

One of the points it raises is lockdown reduces exposure to direct sunlight which helps produce vitamin D, which in turn is a key factor in in how your body deals with the infection.

I didn't think it was a race thing, but indeed darker skin pigmentation blocks UVb light and vitamin D production.

I have shared this before but over a century ago some clinics had success moving Spanish flu patients outdoors into sunlight.

I don't how much of this is science and how much media drama but there is some correlation with higher incidence from spending time indoors, but where else are people going be when sheltering in place?

JR

PS: An old childhood friend of mine's younger brother contracted COVID19 from his wife, a nurse working in a rest home. Both recovered. 

 

[JohnRoberts]

I have been searching for the magical "far UVc" aka "deep UV" very short wavelength UV light.

A) this stuff is not proved safe for humans yet...

B) current technology using excimer tubes, is short life, expensive and inefficient.

The promising new technology is LEDs made using Aluminium Nitride (AlN) Far-UVC LEDs. Reportedly these are capable of 210nm wavelength so well shorter than common UVc around 250nm.... I just read one anecdote, where a russian school teacher forgot to turn off the UVc lamps used to disinfect the classroom over night causing eye damage to the children.

Some interesting proposals for a head worn UV head light that points away from the wearer's eyes, another proposal is down firing light built into the bill of a baseball cap pointing at nose/mouth of the wearer.

I remain optimistic but this is not ready for prime time yet. The future should be safer (BTW these UV lights kill MRSA and multiple difficult microbes ).

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

For an object lesson of how fragile we are without herd immunity (or vaccine), reportedly one 29YO man in S. Korea infected more than 50 people in one night of visiting 5 crowded bars....

Reportedly this was after he was diagnosed positive which does not make sense... I suspect there is more to this story.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8305111/South-Korean-super-spreader-linked-54-new-coronavirus-cases.html
This link details seems a little different than WSJ article I read.

JR

 

[Script]

This article from a medical site also is a bit older already, but worth a read. A little more light-footed than the other one I had posted.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200423/the-great-invader-how-covid-attacks-every-organ
The headline is a bit misleading. Should read 'can attack'.

A few symptoms less highlighted in media coverage are also mentioned. Makes a case for early detection to better support patients, if possible at all.

Toward the end, in passing, rightly questions the broadly touted notion of herd-inmunity -- especially lasting immunity.

 

[Script]

Joseph Vinetz

Didn't know him. Interesting. What does he say?
Found this site where he gets mentioned:

https://www.cnet.com/health/herd-immunity-what-it-is-and-how-it-can-slow-the-spread-of-coronavirus/

Too many important factors remain unknown, however, to simply allow the virus to continue its rampage without intervention:

    Scientists don't know if people can contract the SARS-CoV-2 virus more than once.
    No one knows if a positive coronavirus antibody test means you are immune from contracting or spreading the virus.
    Research on COVID-19 treatment is ongoing, and there is no finite treatment.
    Much of the population is at risk for serious complications, which can lead to death. But even young, healthy people may develop complications that lead to fatality, which raises questions about the nature of the virus.
    It's impossible to know how many people have had the virus and did not report their case, either because they were asymptomatic or did not feel sick enough to get tested, or a test wasn't available.

That article is older (April 20), but it too ultimately points to intervention (social distancing), treatment development and vaccines as the only viable solutions, cos lasting immunity through active infection is (still) only an assumption (May 12).
-----
Maybe it's time for a new spin on the Group A / Group B idea. People who absolutely want to get infected, cos they 'pray' to fast and lasting herd-immunity through active infection -- and consider the risk of getting infected and develop complications to be negligible for themselves  -- might easily do so by one of two methods (one established, the other highly controversial, but it's a free country):

(A) joining medical and other staff at the Covid 'front' (they are recruiting and many have had joined -- so highest respect)

(B) volunteer for experimental vaccine trials (highly controversial, but many have already done so and at their own risk -- so highest respect)

 

[Script]

I think it would be a safe bet that all of his "sayings"  line up with one school of thought.

And that is what? As I said, we don't hear or read much about that guy over here.

so which group is the 4million already tested positive in?

Don't know. Will ask the cousin of a colleague of mine, when I get a chance. In her 40s, she got Covid-19 early and it took her two weeks to be released from hospital again, followed by more weeks of home care provided by family.

Anyway, once stay-in-shelter restrictions get lifted or eased in your area, please stay vigilant. If feeling ill, do NOT hestitate to seek medical help. Could be Covid-19, or could be something completely different. Either way, better don't let it slip.

 

[Bo Deadly]

This might explain why many people just don't seem to be bothered by corona:

  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

I'm getting an antibody test on Monday.

 

[living sounds]

This might explain why many people just don't seem to be bothered by corona:

  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

I'm getting an antibody test on Monday.

I had one cold after the other from early January to the middle of March. It would be great if that had a purpose after all... ;-)

 

[Script]

Thanks for the link
An important call to also focus on T cells in developing vaccines. Apart from that, from that same article:

However, neither of the studies attempted to establish that people with crossreactivity don’t become as ill from COVID-19.
[...]
But she and other scientists caution that the results do not mean that people who have recovered from COVID-19 are protected from reinfection.

So wouldn't know where and why the article explains that people in the risk groups (whether they know they belong to it or not) should be less vigilant.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I find it interesting how I hear so many warnings that previous infection with covid19 is not protective against reinfection. Isn't that exactly how vaccines work?

Perhaps they expect covid19 to change through antigenic drift, like normal flu.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

I find it interesting how I hear so many warnings that previous infection with covid19 is not protective against reinfection. Isn't that exactly how vaccines work?

Any documentation of this? I've heard a few anecdotal reports of possible reinfection, but without disproving the possibility of false positive tests initially for the disease. And there could be a small percentage of outliers who didn't produce neutralizing antibodies. You need neutralizing antibodies (that prevent cell entry or replication of the virus) for immunity, and that's what a vaccine is supposed to stimulate the production of. Once a possible vaccine is created, it takes a long time through several phases of testing on large groups of people to determine its safety, and its efficacy.

There has also been extensive treatment by now of the disease with plasma transfusions from those who have had the disease and have antibodies, and the initial results (no finished studies I'm aware of) seem to show some efficacy in reduced morbidity and faster resolution of symptoms.

 

[Tubetec]

Its sounds like an argument made by some medics in the pocket of Big Pharma, the herd immunity is building as we speak but theres no money to be made from that , a vaccines on the other hand stand to make billions and billions of dollars .
Follow the money...... just look how pharma stocks have rebounded since shortly after lockdown while everything else is going down the pan.

https://www.ecowatch.com/anxiety-medication-coronavirus-lockdown-2645733481.html

Scripts for anxiety medication up 34% by April 20th , a nice little earner ,
The UN and the WHO are now warning the downsides of lockdown in terms of peoples wellbeing may soon outweigh the benefits in terms of the spread of the virus .

 

[JohnRoberts]

Any documentation of this? I've heard a few anecdotal reports of possible reinfection, but without disproving the possibility of false positive tests initially for the disease. And there could be a small percentage of outliers who didn't produce neutralizing antibodies. You need neutralizing antibodies (that prevent cell entry or replication of the virus) for immunity, and that's what a vaccine is supposed to stimulate the production of. Once a possible vaccine is created, it takes a long time through several phases of testing on large groups of people to determine its safety, and its efficacy.

There has also been extensive treatment by now of the disease with plasma transfusions from those who have had the disease and have antibodies, and the initial results (no finished studies I'm aware of) seem to show some efficacy in reduced morbidity and faster resolution of symptoms.

No but I keep hearing warnings (be afraid, be very afraid, keep watching us...)  :. No I am not going cite what I consider unscientific misinformation.

I am just pointing out the apparent illogic based on how vaccines work. I suspect the low information public is relatively easily manipulated (scared).

JR

 

[Script]

it's also about how things are communicated. The psychology behind it all.
---
Quite like point 11 on this poster.
Found it on Wikipedia under 'Spanish Flu'.

About 100 years ago, they just printed it onto a poster. These days we need high-speed cameras and superslow-motion sneezing experiments as 'proof' to convince people that infections are passed on via sneezing and coughing droplets  :

Point 13 I also find somewhat amusing.

 

[Script]

And this one from a Japanese Spanish Flu Manual.
- The mom coughing it onto her kids
- A man without mask catching it on a commuter train
- A doctor who forgets precautions (let's call it in-hospital transmission)

Obviously, some behaviours ain't changing that much, even in a hundred years.

 

[Bo Deadly]

So wouldn't know where and why the article explains that people in the risk groups (whether they know they belong to it or not) should be less vigilant.

Did it say that?

Bear in mind here that most of the information we're getting from science types about corona is not something that, under normal circumstances, would be published at all. These articles are not "scientific" in that they are not peer reviewed and so on. So I hope people don't get a bad impression of "science" because all of this superficial information is going out. Scientists and clinicians are releasing this info because they know people are desperate for any news. So you should be skeptical but it is not completely insignificant news.

I liked your other post though. I really like the part about "beef tea" and "gruel". Yum!

 

[Script]

Did it say that?

No, you didn't. And your explanation is spot on -- a lot of psychology behind it all.

Gruel, yeah. Kellogg's hadn't been invented yet, I think.

Good luck for Monday.

 

[fazer]

In NYT article on the messy ending I’d a quote]

Ebola epidemic over.
Dr. Murray wrote: “If we are not prepared to fight fear and ignorance as actively and as thoughtfully as we fight any other virus, it is possible that fear can do terrible harm to vulnerable people, even in places that never see a single case of infection during an outbreak. And a fear epidemic can have far worse consequences when complicated by issues of race, privilege, and language.”

 

[JohnRoberts]

Maybe this is already common knowledge but I recently read that the percentage of the population with immunity needed to realize herd immunity depends on r0. The higher the r0 the larger percentage needed. The only thing we know with any certainty is that r0 is >1.

Data associated with COVID19 is sketchy, NYC reportedly has >20% immunity, so could be closer to realizing herd immunity than anybody thinks.

JR