COVID-19

[ruffrecords]

What the media seems t forget is that vaccination does not stop you getting a disease. It only helps you fight it if/when you get it. If you expose yourself to the disease you will more likely catch it whether you are vaccinated or not. And probably vaccinated people feel better protected so they tend to expose themselves to the virus more. The media understands vaccination even less than it understands climate change.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Script]

According to hospitals in Florida, today’s COVID patients have some common factors:

• They are 98% unvaccinated.
• About 70% are between 12 and 65 years old; 50% are between 25 and 55.
• A majority have no pre-existing conditions.
• They are filling COVID wards rapidly, although only between 25-30% of all ICU beds in Florida are occupied by COVID patients.
• They are more likely to be a minority. (During the pandemic, Black Americans have been hospitalized at nearly three times the rate as white Americans.)
• Many patients are related — husband and wife, parent and child, brother and sister.
• Their health deteriorated faster than patients in previous coronavirus waves.
• More of them are children.
• They mostly are infected with the Delta strain.
• Unless sick enough to land in the ICU, most are hospitalized for 5 to 7 days.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...orida-are-different/ar-AAMTygH?ocid=bingcovid

That is pretty much the same picture that can be observed in Japan right now in the fifth wave due to delta. Incidences have been skyrocketing -- on some days it went up by more than 200% compared to same day of previous week. Duration of hospitalization is yet unclear in Japan. Also there are no minorities here as such. -- social status, maybe, but it doesn't get published.

What has been observed over the last six weeks though -- before onset of wave -- is that patients with delta who land in ICU also stay longer -- probably because of higher viral load and overall younger age.

 

[Tubetec]

Thats a point I made on another thread too Ian , the confidence of being vaxed is surely leading to risky behaviour in some . I'm holding the line with the same precautions I have been using all along .
There were a few reports that the number of cases in the Uk had plateaued and was starting to drop again , not sure what to believe though .

 

[Script]

In Japan, somewhere between 80 to 90 percent of people in age groups 65 to 100+ are fully vaccinated. All lower age groups are not that advanced in vaccination by far.

Currently, vaccinated older people make up a small percentage of hospitalizations only. And that sure is not because they are all staying at home to watch the Olympics.

#
What does hospitalization in the US mean ? Anybody with infection gets admitted ?

In Japan, only Covid patients with severe symptoms, meaning they need oxygene support, get admitted. All others are treated as outpatients either at home or they can ask for accomodate in isolation at a facilitiy (meaning: at a government-rented hotel)). Those people are not counted as "hospitalized" over here.

 

[ruffrecords]

Thats a point I made on another thread too Ian , the confidence of being vaxed is surely leading to risky behaviour in some . I'm holding the line with the same precautions I have been using all along .
There were a few reports that the number of cases in the Uk had plateaued and was starting to drop again , not sure what to believe though .

New cases appear have have peaked and are now about half what they were last week. The important difference is that the percentage of cases that end up hospitalised has dropped very low as have the deaths which essentially demonstrates the efficacy of the vaccination program. Here in Norfolk the cases dropped by half to about 350 this week. The normal population of Norfolk is 900,000 but at this time of year is swells by about 50% simply due to holiday makers and I can tell you from personal experience they are here in droves. SO the fact cases are dropping despite the influx of people from all over the country seems like good news to me.

Cheers

ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

I can't even watch the business news these days... political blather has corrupted everything.

I appreciate this is the wrong thread for political blather. Mea culpa.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

What the media seems t forget is that vaccination does not stop you getting a disease. It only helps you fight it if/when you get it. If you expose yourself to the disease you will more likely catch it whether you are vaccinated or not. And probably vaccinated people feel better protected so they tend to expose themselves to the virus more. The media understands vaccination even less than it understands climate change.

Cheers

Ian

Not really true. Vaccination does substantially reduce the probability of getting the disease and transmitting it, and as you state, it has a more benign course in those who are vaccinated. Also true that the vaccinated feel more protected and probably were less likely to wear masks and limit exposure, but that is certainly changing here in the US.

COVID-19 vaccines currently authorized in the United States have been shown to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 infections, including asymptomatic and symptomatic infection, severe disease, and death. These findings, along with the early evidence for reduced viral load in vaccinated people who develop COVID-19, suggest that any associated transmission risk is likely to be substantially reduced in vaccinated people.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

 

[scott2000]

#
What does hospitalization in the US mean ? Anybody with infection gets admitted ?

In Japan, only Covid patients with severe symptoms, meaning they need oxygene support, get admitted. All others are treated as outpatients either at home or they can ask for accomodate in isolation at a facilitiy (meaning: at a government-rented hotel)). Those people are not counted as "hospitalized" over here.

From healthcare.gov

https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/hospitalization/

Hospitalization​

Care in a hospital that requires admission as an inpatient and usually requires an overnight stay. An overnight stay for observation could be outpatient care.


I've always considered going to the hospital a big deal. Apparently it's not that simple.
Like having a coronary angioplasty. My Dad just flashed his vaccine card and away he went. All outpatient stuff afaik.

Interesting too..

https://racmonitor.com/should-treat...outpatient-the-codes-the-rules-and-the-money/

 

[ruffrecords]

Not really true. Vaccination does substantially reduce the probability of getting the disease and transmitting it, and as you state, it has a more benign course in those who are vaccinated. Also true that the vaccinated feel more reduces the probability of getting it protected and probably were less likely to wear masks and limit exposure, but that is certainly changing here in the US.

I can see how it decreases transmission because it increases the likelihood of asymptomatic COVID or COVID with mild symptoms but I don't see how it reduces the probability of getting it if exposed to it.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

I can see how it decreases transmission because it increases the likelihood of asymptomatic COVID or COVID with mild symptoms but I don't see how it reduces the probability of getting it if exposed to it.

Cheers

Ian

Vaccination stimulates a natural immune response from injecting a sham virus (and why it takes a couple weeks for the vaccination to be effective). The human body creates this natural internal defense (antibodies) to the virus generally preventing it from being successful at getting established.

Virus variants that are slightly different from the original vaccine target may not be completely squashed, but greatly attenuated. This is why they are constantly reformulating flu shots every year.

The recent mask advice is because some vaccinated people have been found to develop a viral load consistent with being contagious, so the goal is to protect unvaccinated people. These vaccinated people who "get" it, rarely suffer significant symptoms themselves.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

As John says, the vaccine shows the body a benign analog of a virus - the spike protein in the case of the mRNA shots, killed viral components in others - which stimulates the body to make antibodies and other immune responses, including memory components. When the body is then presented with the real thing, the soldiers are already there to fight it.
A non-vaccinated person has to begin his antibody response when presented with the real virus, and by the time the immune response is ramping up, the infection has already set in.

 

[Script]

From healthcare.gov

https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/hospitalization/

Hospitalization​

Thanks. Could/should have looked up myself ; )

So it's similar to Japan or other way round. Could be interesting to compare cos overalll rather few infections in J before delta

 

[crazydoc]

Hospitalization is required when the needed medical care or monitoring can't be done as an outpatient. It's a judgement call by the physician. Guidelines have been published.

Patients with a mild clinical presentation (absence of viral pneumonia and hypoxia) may not initially require hospitalization, and most patients will be able to manage their illness at home. The decision to monitor a patient in the inpatient or outpatient setting should be made on a case-by-case basis. This decision will depend on the clinical presentation, requirement for supportive care, potential risk factors for severe disease, and the ability of the patient to self-isolate at home. Patients with risk factors for severe illness (see People Who Are at an Increased Risk for Severe Illness) should be monitored closely given the possible risk of progression to severe illness, especially in the second week after symptom onset.

Some patients with COVID-19 will have severe disease requiring hospitalization for management. Inpatient management includes supportive management of the most common complications of severe COVID-19: pneumonia, hypoxemic respiratory failure/ARDS, sepsis and septic shock, cardiomyopathy and arrhythmia, acute kidney injury, and complications from prolonged hospitalization, including secondary bacterial and fungal infections, thromboembolism, gastrointestinal bleeding, and critical illness polyneuropathy/myopathy.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

 

[Tubetec]

I had a chance to chat with a good friend recently , he's more than 20 years working in genetics with a speciality in zoonotic disease.

I asked him about the possibillity of testing people for antibodies or other signs of previous contact with the corona virus before administration of a vaccine . He explained it didnt require a PCR test , I forget precisely now what kind of test he said it was(weird sounding codes that mean nothing to me) ,but the presence of either or both of two different types of antibody would show to a very high degree of certainty if a person , even without knowing had a previous covid infection , in which case they may well have already built some natural immunity and not get as much benefit from vaxing . We could potentially save millions of doses of the vaccine and re-direct them to places in greater need , reducing the chances of new variants emerging especially in places where poor economic and living conditions proclude any meaningfull social distancing to take place . The question I didnt ask him was why arent we doing this , but I'm pretty certain he'd say its a mix of financial and political chicanery are the reasons .

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-warn-against-using-COW-DUNG-cure-virus.html

 

[crazydoc]

In Japan, only Covid patients with severe symptoms, meaning they need oxygene support, get admitted. All others are treated as outpatients either at home or they can ask for accomodate in isolation at a facilitiy (meaning: at a government-rented hotel)). Those people are not counted as "hospitalized" over here.

That would go along with this news article, although it looks like there are worries that some patients won't get adequate care. But they (and we) have to walk that tightrope, to make sure there is room in the hospital for those who are really serious.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-cases-hit-new-high/ar-AAMVu7T?ocid=bingcovid

 

[JohnRoberts]

In the grand scheme of things I don't know that the cost of the vaccine is the dominant issue. If there is no harm from vaccinating people with anti-bodies it is simpler and more effective to jab them when you can get them to show up. Assuming they are symptomless at that time (they did ask me before my jabs).

I am not the medical expert here but there appear to be at least two types of tests... antigen (?) to look for active COVID infections, and anti-body tests to look for immunity. Walmart sells a antigen test (2 for $20) but these are not accepted by CDC for entering the US.

Pfizer just won a contract with the army for 500M doses ($3.5B) so something like $7 ea. I am not sure how much testing instead of jabbing would save.

=========
I haven't talked about this lately but I remain optimistic that at some point in the future (maybe not my future) we will see low cost far UVc light. The short wavelength (222nm) UV light kills microbes without harming humans. Right now the only practical (but not cheap) technology to make far UVc is excimer lasers. We need an industry moon shot project to develop LED technology to make short wavelength UV. They have successfully made experimental LEDs in the lab but they were only a few percent efficient so impractical.

I'd like to see some government R&D funds go to this instead of building more EV charging stations. Wide use of far UVc could knock down all kinds of harmful diseases in homes and public places.

JR

 

[Tubetec]

I dont think extra testing would save anything financially , I wasnt suggesting it would . Of course there would be extra logistical and man power issues that could slow things down too . What Im suggesting is, in the bigger scheme of things and in the interests of the greater human good it might work out better to vaccinate the most suseptable first .

Im not about to smear myself in a mix of cow dung and urine in the hope some extra immunity against corona viruses ,but while out on a job rigging a marquee tent on a farm a few weeks back I got two horsefly bites , one on each forearm . Even though I swatted the buggers off they still managed to sink their pincers in , was only next morning I noticed swelling at the sites of the bites . On one arm the swelling subsided in a day or two but the other bite took a full two weeks to fully heal , these flies also known as dung flies live and breed on piles of animal manure, there is quite a strong possibility they also carry corona viruses .

Its fairly obvious some people have a better natural defense to covid infection than others , this seems to suggest there might be something in mother natures arsenal that can give the immune system a kick start in much less harmfull way than the Covid itself . Wouldnt it make good sense to start looking closer at people who have had covid and made good recoveries without medical intervention or lasting side effects ? The world of science is littered with good ideas that never see the light of day , the reason is people with vested interests in big pharma are the ones doleing out the research funding , theres very little science behind that aspect of it , its about pure unadulterated human greed for the most part .

 

[ruffrecords]

As John says, the vaccine shows the body a benign analog of a virus - the spike protein in the case of the mRNA shots, killed viral components in others - which stimulates the body to make antibodies and other immune responses, including memory components. When the body is then presented with the real thing, the soldiers are already there to fight it.
A non-vaccinated person has to begin his antibody response when presented with the real virus, and by the time the immune response is ramping up, the infection has already set in.

I don't disagree with any of that but those folks with the soldiers ready to fight when presented by Covid have still caught Covid. So the vaccine does not stop you getting Covid. It just reduces the chances of you getting a serious case of it.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

.... while out on a job rigging a marquee tent on a farm a few weeks back I got two horsefly bites , one on each forearm . Even though I swatted the buggers off they still managed to sink their pincers in , was only next morning I noticed swelling at the sites of the bites . On one arm the swelling subsided in a day or two but the other bite took a full two weeks to fully heal , these flies also known as dung flies live and breed on piles of animal manure, there is quite a strong possibility they also carry corona viruses .

I am not the guy here to give medical advice but personally the older I get the more bothered I am by insect bites. Good advice I got from our resident crazydoc was to try some OTC oral anti-histamine ( Diphenhydramine HCL) aka Benadryl, the last time I had bite related swelling that persisted.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

I don't disagree with any of that but those folks with the soldiers ready to fight when presented by Covid have still caught Covid.

Those soldiers were primed to fight the original or early COVID Virus, not the delta variant that was different enough that some still got through.

So the vaccine does not stop you getting Covid. It just reduces the chances of you getting a serious case of it.

Last years flu shot isn't guaranteed to protect you against next years flu strain.

Cheers

Ian

The current vaccines even if not targeting the delta variant specifically spanked it down enough to prevent most hospitalizations and all(?) deaths in vaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated did not fare as well.

Take the win.. but don't be surprised by annual booster shots, as I have shared a few times already Moderna is working on a combo Flu/COVID shot. This virus will be with us for years.

JR