COVID-19

[crazydoc]

I don't disagree with any of that but those folks with the soldiers ready to fight when presented by Covid have still caught Covid. So the vaccine does not stop you getting Covid. It just reduces the chances of you getting a serious case of it.

Cheers

Ian

The vaccine does stop almost everybody from getting the disease, very effectively. The CDC does not monitor breakthrough cases any more, only hospitalization and death, but this site has collected data from states that do monitor the number of cases. You have to go to the site for data and graphs.

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/

The data reported from these states indicate that breakthrough cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are extremely rare events among those who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (see Figure 1). The rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is well below 1% in all reporting states, ranging from 0.01% in Connecticut to 0.29% in Alaska.

.

 

[scott2000]

The current vaccines even if not targeting the delta variant specifically spanked it down enough to prevent most hospitalizations and all(?) deaths in vaccinated individuals. Unvaccinated did not fare as well.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/loca...s-reported-in-mass-100-have-now-died/2456116/

 

[Script]

Interesting, cos quite scary headline. And then in text body it says:

"The 100 deaths out of nearly 4.3 million fully vaccinated residents represents a rate of just 0.002%."

Project that number onto a fully vaccinated population and they'd sure call it the end of the pandemic -- no ?

 

[Tubetec]

So even if theres a hint of your government at the highest levels being involved in engineering this pandemic you remain cock sure there not manipulating the stats Doc ?
The fact that now only hospitalisations and deaths are being counted as 'breakthrough cases' in many places should ring alarm bells .

As I mentioned in another thread our director of the health service executive in Ireland clearly stated that 22% of new cases were among the vaccinated earlier today .

We hardly needed another American in the UN speaking on Irelands behalf, TVM but no , anyway Catherine Zappone(now safely back in the USA) has stepped back from her UN 'freedom of expression' ambassadorial appointment and due to her own hubris in gathering with 50 supporters ,in a pre appointment rally , now seems to have inflicted serious damage on the top two government ministers in her (former) political party , the Tainiste ,or second in command to the prime minister and my next door neighbour the minister for foreign affairs .

As Rotten(Johnny) once said 'ever get the feeling you been cheated ' , I feel an election coming on .

 

[crazydoc]

So even if theres a hint of your government at the highest levels being involved in engineering this pandemic you remain cock sure there not manipulating the stats Doc ?

Sounds like classic conspiracy theory. Lets see the evidence. I doubt that state level data is being manipulated - to many potential whistle blowers involved.

The fact that now only hospitalisations and deaths are being counted as 'breakthrough cases' in many places should ring alarm bells .

Misinformation. Hospitalization and death are being formally tracked, but are not identified as the "only breakthrough cases."

As I mentioned in another thread our director of the health service executive in Ireland clearly stated that 22% of new cases were among the vaccinated earlier today

Lets see a link. All the new cases, or a local sample?

 

[scott2000]

Interesting, cos quite scary headline. And then in text body it says:

"The 100 deaths out of nearly 4.3 million fully vaccinated residents represents a rate of just 0.002%."

Project that number onto a fully vaccinated population and they'd sure call it the end of the pandemic -- no ?

Not scary. Just replying to JR's "?" of all deaths prevented from vaccine. Not sure what the fatality rate of breakthrough infections are if kept in that context? 100 deaths out of 8000 infections.

"Saturday's cumulative count reflects an increase of 1,364 breakthrough cases over July 24. That accounts for a bit more than 30% of all new coronavirus cases confirmed in the state during that one-week span."

Is a little disturbing to hear that info above but, the CDC started counting things differently so this should become more clear as time goes on.

I called my Dad yesterday and told him to be aware and he had already talked to his Dr. about a possible 3rd booster.

 

[living sounds]

One thing to keep in mind is that the effectiveness of the vaccine varies with the lenght of the interval between shots. Especially if shots have been administered within too short a timeframe effectiveness can go down severely and breakthrough infections become far more likely.

 

[ruffrecords]

I called my Dad yesterday and told him to be aware and he had already talked to his Dr. about a possible 3rd booster.

In the UK there are plans to give all us old farts a Moderna booster this winter at the same time as we get our flu jab. Apparently it will be one in each arm.

Cheers

ian

 

[scott2000]

some data from FL

 

[hodad]

Just in time to keep South Dakota from looking good for too long, the Sturgis Superspreader Event is back. The state that currently has the lowest infection rate in the US is preparing to welcome the delta-spreading hordes on their Harleys and Hondas. And when all those freedom-loving motorcyclists leave, not only will they have screwed up South Dakota's good thing; they'll be spreading the delta far and wide across this great land.

 

[scott2000]

forgot the Muahahaha

 

[JohnRoberts]

Just in time to keep South Dakota from looking good for too long, the Sturgis Superspreader Event is back. The state that currently has the lowest infection rate in the US is preparing to welcome the delta-spreading hordes on their Harleys and Hondas. And when all those freedom-loving motorcyclists leave, not only will they have screwed up South Dakota's good thing; they'll be spreading the delta far and wide across this great land.

South Dakota confirmed 124 COVID-19 cases tied to the Sturgis Rally as of Sept. 8, and other states have reported at least 290 people in 12 states testing positive after attending the rally. About 460,000 people attended the rally. The infection rate based on the above numbers is 0.09%, found by dividing 414 (South Dakota's cases plus the other states' cases) by 460,000, and multiplying that by 100.
=======
That was last year, this year we have a more communicable delta variant, but far more vaccinated people.

I guess we will see.

JR

 

[hodad]

Shifting gears: Today I saw this article that addresses the scientific side of testing supposed miracle cures for COVID. It's mostly about science & methodology, less about politics. Probably some of this is old hat to many here, but it's nicely presented.

When To Stop Hoping For a COVID-19 Miracle Cure

 

[JohnRoberts]

If we want to talks about super spreader events how about releasing thousands of covid positive migrants into TX border cities (like McAllen TX, 16% posisitive)?

The federal government's (their job) handling of the border goes from bad to worse.

JR

 

[hodad]

If we want to talks about super spreader events how about releasing thousands of covid positive migrants into TX border cities (like McAllen TX, 16% posisitive)?

Average positivity rate in Texas is 17.95%, so McAllen is below average. And thanks for the nice example of "howaboutism."

 

[crazydoc]

South Dakota confirmed 124 COVID-19 cases tied to the Sturgis Rally as of Sept. 8, and other states have reported at least 290 people in 12 states testing positive after attending the rally. About 460,000 people attended the rally. The infection rate based on the above numbers is 0.09%, found by dividing 414 (South Dakota's cases plus the other states' cases) by 460,000, and multiplying that by 100.
=======
That was last year, this year we have a more communicable delta variant, but far more vaccinated people.

I guess we will see.

JR

Then there's this take on it, apparently debunked by some:

We are further able to document national spread due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally,
although that spread also appears to have been successfully mitigated by states with strict
infection mitigation policies. In counties with the largest relative inflow to the event, the per
1,000 case rate increased by 10.7 percent after 24 days following the onset of Sturgis Pre-Rally
Events. Multiplying each of the statistically significant percent case increases for the high,
moderate-high and moderate inflow counties by each county’s respective pre-rally cumulative
COVID-19 cases and aggregating, yields a total of 263,708 additional cases in these locations
due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Adding the number of new cases due to the Rally in South
Dakota estimated by synthetic control (3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota
population of approximately 858,000) brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent
of the 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and
September 2nd 2020.39

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf
Yes, we shall see.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Whaddabout... McAllen, TX just built an emergency shelter to house covid positive migrants released by the federal government into the US.

A Catholic charity was housing these migrants inside a local hotel until the covid positive numbers overwhelmed the charity. This is a federal government responsibility since they refuse to close the border, not the sundry border town's.

This still looks like more than a "border challenge" and I've yet to find good information about where these people are being sent, and who is paying for that.

Another can of worms not a normal progression, apparently getting worse.

"What abouts" can still be true. Casting shade on Sturges is just targeting a demographic unpopular with the left, while radio silence about lollapalooza. (oops another whaddabout).

Partisan enmity is not helpful for public health. IMO the border is far more than a public health problem, but covid risk gets the headlines and clicks these days.

JR

 

[hodad]

Whaddabout... McAllen, TX just built an emergency shelter to house covid positive migrants released by the federal government into the US.

"What abouts" can still be true. Casting shade on Sturges is just targeting a demographic unpopular with the left, while radio silence about lollapalooza. (oops another whaddabout).

JR

I tried to find good info on McAllen, and I didn't see a ton from sources I trust. Ted Cruz, btw, is not a source I trust.

Though you don't frequent such places on the internet, liberal sites had more than a little discussion of Lollapalooza. Much more effort to mitigate spread seems to have gone into the planning and execution of Lollapalooza than Sturgis. That doesn't mean I think Chicago made the right choice by hosting the festival.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Indeed finding good information these days is difficult and getting harder. I kind of liked Ted Cruz ( I voted for him over Trump in the republican primary), but I do not look to politicians, or liberal web sites for reliable data.

On the subject of data, in the run up to the latest CDC mask (wax on) flip flop there was supposed to be a study out of Hong Kong or Singapore that contradicted the thesis that breakthrough cases in vaccinated people made them contagious (high viral load sounds logical). After searching for this contrary study a couple days, even changing search engines, I gave up. Maybe it was a figment of somebody's imagination or considered an inconvenient truth by the internet gatekeepers.

Indeed the border situation is predominantly covered by conservative or right leaning news sources (doh). I trust the government data on this about as far as I can throw them... "nothing to see here" yadda yadda. At least now it is harder for them to completely ignore it is happening. If we are not going to close the border, why not start jabbing them in Mexico, but that might attract even more just for the vaccine (so what).

JR

 

[hodad]

I trust the government data on this about as far as I can throw them...

Including that coming frome the govt. of McAllen/Hidalgo County. One tidbit I did find is that they're using antigen tests, which have a greater propensity for false positives. Thus, the "crisis" may not be quite as bad as the local officials want to make it out to be.