It's different this time...?

[crazydoc]

Yes, often the posts are so brilliant and unbiased that I am unable to respond.

​

 

[john12ax7]

It is truly an embarrassment of riches.

This place actually was that, and in some ways still is, but a lot of the political nonsense has devolved it. People sharing knowledge while also recognizing the limits of their own knowledge is a beautiful thing. Seems we are not getting enough of the latter.

 

[cyrano]

Population is increasing so food and energy demand are likely to increase as well.

That's what it looks like when you don't realise it's a complex problem. Those who really understand the economy are employed by speculators. And even those people get it wrong on occasion.

The more you learn, the better you understand how little we know.

Science has studied the problem. There's no trade that leads to dishonesty as fast as being a banker.

You know the boutade: those who are interested in power, shouldn't be allowed to be in power. Power corrupts.

I think the major problem of the economy is transport. There's no sense in producing food and then transporting it to the other side of the Earth. Yet, that's what we are doing. Our green beans come from Kenia. Our asparagus from Peru. Etc.

Of course that's a concern for other products too.

As long as speculation is allowed, it will be the noise factor that disrupts the data from the economic system. You know what happens when noise is drowning the music, don't you?

 

[JohnRoberts]

That's what it looks like when you don't realise it's a complex problem.

subtle dig...

Those who really understand the economy are employed by speculators.

The macro economy is made up of multiple sectors that don't always move in synchrony. Speculators serve a function of providing liquidity in futures markets.

And even those people get it wrong on occasion.

fairly often in fact

The more you learn, the better you understand how little we know.

we agree

Science has studied the problem. There's no trade that leads to dishonesty as fast as being a banker.

seriously, I can imagine several more that are worse... Like spending OPM (other people's money).

You know the boutade: those who are interested in power, shouldn't be allowed to be in power. Power corrupts.

The major contribution from our founders was their understanding of human frailty and designing checks and balances into our system of governance. That said the bureaucrats pedal as fast as they can to thwart those checks. SCOTUS has recently made important decisions regarding regulatory over reach. Only law makers can write laws.

I think the major problem of the economy is transport.

Transportation is dealing with two challenges... The first short term challenge is adjusting to the wild volume swings cause by COVID pandemic on supply and demand. The second more challenging problem is energy cost being artificially inflated by a misguided climate policy.

There's no sense in producing food and then transporting it to the other side of the Earth. Yet, that's what we are doing. Our green beans come from Kenia. Our asparagus from Peru. Etc.

and why exactly is this bad? Opening up poor countries to international markets has raised millions out of poverty. I kind of like being able to buy fresh fruit and vegetable year round. I am repeating myself but Adam Smith's "wealth of nations" is a tribute to free trade.

Of course that's a concern for other products too.

I have killed many brain cells thinking about this while I was a manager at Peavey. We sold SKUs into over 100 countries, not even possible without effective world wide shipping. Peavey started out building everything in MS, and then a little later also in Corby, England. Then we started contract manufacturing a few products in China. I momentarily considered ramping up manufacturing in UK, but even a dull pencil showed that was not cost effective.

China is fighting to be the world's factory floor and doing pretty well. There are attempts to counter them, but China is single minded and gaining strength.

As long as speculation is allowed, it will be the noise factor that disrupts the data from the economic system. You know what happens when noise is drowning the music, don't you?

I don't find that analogy representative. If anything speculation dithers the data, while like any trading it needs to be regulated. Excessive leverage can disrupt markets, and trading on inside information is unfair.

I just read about a case of cryptocurrency insider trading being brought. Interesting times. I guess they don't realize that blockchain keeps all the transaction data.

JR

 

[Gold]

Are those the only choices? Give me a break. The real world is full of experienced people who have a deep understanding of these important aspects of modern life. But instead Biden appoints career politicians to run, say, the Department of Transportation. Politicians with near zero knowledge of what they're "managing."

I’d rather have an experienced manager like an ex mayor leading hundreds of thousands of people than a technical expert. Technical expertise can be hired. You want a manager who understands the big picture.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I’d rather have an experienced manager like an ex mayor leading hundreds of thousands of people than a technical expert. Technical expertise can be hired. You want a manager who understands the big picture.

A common trajectory for gaining high political office is sometimes AG to mayor, mayor to governor, governor to presidential candidate (but lately a few Soros backed AGs are getting flushed because of public push back against increased street violence). Another path is through serving in legislature, state representative to house of representatives, then senate to presidential campaign. Some high profile party favorites get jumped ahead of the line but most do at least a brief stint in the Senate.

In addition to executive experience (mayor, governor) I would like to stipulate the management experience of running a small business and making payrolls. There is a certain financial discipline to meeting payroll for all your employees every week (the eagle flies on Friday). Congress people have typical office budgets more than $1M but that is not remotely like running a business.

JR

 

[cyrano]

Speculators serve a function of providing liquidity in futures markets.

Heard that one numerous times before.

This is "the observer's problem". As an observer you should be very wary not to influence the observed in any way. Clearly, in this case, driven by human frailties.

seriously, I can imagine several more that are worse... Like spending OPM (other people's money).

That's certainly very true in a number of cases. I've spent time studying one of these money streams from the UN to the Bekaa Valley in Libanon. Over 50% of the money ended up in the Bekaa valley, which is considered a succes.

Again, let those who can do better, come forward.

The major contribution from our founders was their understanding of human frailty and designing checks and balances into our system of governance. That said the bureaucrats pedal as fast as they can to thwart those checks. SCOTUS has recently made important decisions regarding regulatory over reach. Only law makers can write laws.

No John. In the ideal case, law comes from common understanding. If, at that time in history, Americans needed the Founders, I can understand. That is, however, local and two centuries old.

I don't mean it should be thrown out. Quite the contrary. It just shouldn't hold up evolution.

If evolution is somehow stopped, it naturally ends in revolution.

Transportation is dealing with two challenges... The first short term challenge is adjusting to the wild volume swings cause by COVID pandemic on supply and demand. The second more challenging problem is energy cost being artificially inflated by a misguided climate policy.

The problem isn't any of those. The problem is creating a need for long distance transport. Just like tourism seems to mean all Europeans stick their butts on a Costa Brava beach in July or August.

Airlines are crumbling because of Covid. But not only because of it.

The need they created, is artificial. And hence, arguably bizarre. How come an airline ticket from London to Dehli is way cheaper than a train ticket from London to Glasgow?

and why exactly is this bad? Opening up poor countries to international markets has raised millions out of poverty. I kind of like being able to buy fresh fruit and vegetable year round. I am repeating myself but Adam Smith's "wealth of nations" is a tribute to free trade.

I never said it was all bad. It wasn't much of a success in the horn of Africa, or the Baltic republics. And that's logical. Capitalism is a random process. Not that "steered" processes like the Soviets were very successful, but still. Let's not toot the horn, maybe?

I have killed many brain cells thinking about this while I was a manager at Peavey. We sold SKUs into over 100 countries, not even possible without effective world wide shipping. Peavey started out building everything in MS, and then a little later also in Corby, England. Then we started contract manufacturing a few products in China. I momentarily considered ramping up manufacturing in UK, but even a dull pencil showed that was not cost effective.

I have guided a few companies in my time. Those that survive have kept it local and relatively small. There's no need to grow, if you're good. A few of them are making a lot of money.

Those who wanted big, have all been gobbled up by something bigger. In most cases, the original owners made a bundle. If that's what your goal is, it's OK.

China is fighting to be the world's factory floor and doing pretty well. There are attempts to counter them, but China is single minded and gaining strength.

The PRCs party is good at analysing. They've checked the US, Russia and the EU and they are executing what the West has prepared.

I had hoped the PRC would be able to control it's population. It took natural evolution. No party ruling had any effect. I like the Chinese... ;-)

I don't find that analogy representative. If anything speculation dithers the data, while like any trading it needs to be regulated. Excessive leverage can disrupt markets, and trading on inside information is unfair.

While I agree, John, it also made me smile. We both know that the rules don't seem to matter much on an international scale. I mean, which poor underpaid pencil pusher will ever be able to follow the trail?

I just read about a case of cryptocurrency insider trading being brought. Interesting times. I guess they don't realize that blockchain keeps all the transaction data.

JR

I've just heard from a friend who's into those things they are investigating a claim that the blockchain has been illegally changed. Don't know the details. He told me he was waiting for such a case. Seems to involve holding most tokens in the chain. Could be possible in the current climate, with large amounts of coin being traded.

Anyhow, with coins not really residing in the real world, it's only a ripple on the world's markets.

 

[cyrano]

I’d rather have an experienced manager like an ex mayor leading hundreds of thousands of people than a technical expert. Technical expertise can be hired. You want a manager who understands the big picture.

In The Netherlands, a mayor is a lifetime career that needs a degree...

Evolution.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Heard that one numerous times before.

This is "the observer's problem". As an observer you should be very wary not to influence the observed in any way. Clearly, in this case, driven by human frailties.

Physics calls it the "observer effect". Classic is "dual slit experiment".

That's certainly very true in a number of cases. I've spent time studying one of these money streams from the UN to the Bekaa Valley in Libanon. Over 50% of the money ended up in the Bekaa valley, which is considered a succes.

OPM

Again, let those who can do better, come forward.

Individuals are better at spending their own money than governments, and even if not, it is their money.

No John. In the ideal case, law comes from common understanding. If, at that time in history, Americans needed the Founders, I can understand. That is, however, local and two centuries old.

I don't mean it should be thrown out. Quite the contrary. It just shouldn't hold up evolution.

If evolution is somehow stopped, it naturally ends in revolution.

Laws do not evolve based on public sentiment. The constitution has the facility for amendment designed into it, but the threshold for amending the constitution is pretty difficult as it should be. Don't need to fix it if it isn't broken.

The problem isn't any of those. The problem is creating a need for long distance transport. Just like tourism seems to mean all Europeans stick their butts on a Costa Brava beach in July or August.

opinions vary.. Trade requires moving the good to where there is more demand to generate higher prices (more wealth). Poor people in distant lands need the wealth that free trade can bring them.

Airlines are crumbling because of Covid. But not only because of it.

airlines are struggling with getting enough pilots, capacity to move people through major airports. Heathrow is limiting flights to try to manage. In the US pilots must retire at 65YO, maybe politicians should have manadatory retirement... old people suck.

The need they created, is artificial. And hence, arguably bizarre. How come an airline ticket from London to Dehli is way cheaper than a train ticket from London to Glasgow?

Supply/ demand?

I never said it was all bad. It wasn't much of a success in the horn of Africa, or the Baltic republics. And that's logical. Capitalism is a random process. Not that "steered" processes like the Soviets were very successful, but still. Let's not toot the horn, maybe?

Free market capitalism is a wild market driven enterprise. Who could even imagine today's products ten years ago? Of course regulation is needed to keep the excesses of unfettered capitalism in check.

I am not ready to declare communist central planning a success, while the PRC is notching wins. Hong Kong's democratic freedoms have been effectively squashed. Taiwan is their next target for capture. Nancy Pelosi has accidentally been caught in the middle when news of a trip by her that would include a side trip to Taiwan has resulted in China's saber rattling (veiled threats to shoot down her plane). That would turn this into a hot war with China, and I don't think either side wants that. They clearly are not afraid of the US military after watching all the stumbles lately.

I have guided a few companies in my time. Those that survive have kept it local and relatively small. There's no need to grow, if you're good. A few of them are making a lot of money.

It seems like growth is useful in business.

Those who wanted big, have all been gobbled up by something bigger. In most cases, the original owners made a bundle. If that's what your goal is, it's OK.



The PRCs party is good at analysing. They've checked the US, Russia and the EU and they are executing what the West has prepared.

huh?

I had hoped the PRC would be able to control it's population. It took natural evolution. No party ruling had any effect. I like the Chinese... ;-)

The PRC is very big on monitoring private citizens, and influencing their behavior with a system of social credits and demerits based on observed behavior. This also looks a lot like dystopian science fiction. China is a major world threat to freedom and democracy, while opinions vary.

While I agree, John, it also made me smile. We both know that the rules don't seem to matter much on an international scale. I mean, which poor underpaid pencil pusher will ever be able to follow the trail?

? If there is enough wealth involved, it will be pursued.

I've just heard from a friend who's into those things they are investigating a claim that the blockchain has been illegally changed. Don't know the details. He told me he was waiting for such a case. Seems to involve holding most tokens in the chain. Could be possible in the current climate, with large amounts of coin being traded.

I think it was a crypto bank/broker being investigated.

Anyhow, with coins not really residing in the real world, it's only a ripple on the world's markets.

Not economically significant as an alternate currency, while blockchain technology is being widely embraced and used for all kinds of transaction chains.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

I’d rather have an experienced manager like an ex mayor leading hundreds of thousands of people than a technical expert. Technical expertise can be hired. You want a manager who understands the big picture.

I didn't specify "technical expert." Experience with logistics at a large company (or the military), or managing at one of the larger infratructure planning & design firms, or running the transportation department at the state level would be good examples. Mayors of small cities are juggling various balls, and while transportation is one of them, it is nowhere near as complex as it is at the national level. They spend more time electioneering than working. We need basic understanding and pragmatism much more than idealism. Mayor Pete has shown very little of the former qualities.

 

[cyrano]

Individuals are better at spending their own money than governments, and even if not, it is their money.

This just came up:

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a35812573/steven-donziger-chevron-house-arrest/
War in the east, war in the west. And even war at home if you're not a careful, obedient citizen. At least if you dare to expose the crimes of big business.

Laws do not evolve based on public sentiment. The constitution has the facility for amendment designed into it, but the threshold for amending the constitution is pretty difficult as it should be. Don't need to fix it if it isn't broken.

Of course law should evolve because of public sentiment. Law should serve the citizen.

Poor people in distant lands need the wealth that free trade can bring them.

When's that gonna happen?

I mean, how many centuries of being robbed, murdered, raped and exploited does the world have to endure before that fairy tale is buried?

Supply/ demand?

Nothing of the kind. The difference is railroads in general aren't free enterprise. They're subsidised. Airlines are free enterprise and they're competing very hard. Leading to exploitation of their crews. And ending with a lot of companies going out of business.

Realising it's two different stories, Sweden decided to make all public transport free. Hasn't cost them a dime, as the money lost from ticket sales was compensated by less expenses for road maintenance.

Free market capitalism is a wild market driven enterprise. Who could even imagine today's products ten years ago? Of course regulation is needed to keep the excesses of unfettered capitalism in check.

I am not ready to declare communist central planning a success, while the PRC is notching wins. Hong Kong's democratic freedoms have been effectively squashed. Taiwan is their next target for capture. Nancy Pelosi has accidentally been caught in the middle when news of a trip by her that would include a side trip to Taiwan has resulted in China's saber rattling (veiled threats to shoot down her plane). That would turn this into a hot war with China, and I don't think either side wants that. They clearly are not afraid of the US military after watching all the stumbles lately.

You're confusing politics (democratic & human rights) with economics. The Chinese population only accepts the PRC's party as long as they can provide a better life for their citizens. We've come close to the point where the party no longer can do that, because of capitalism. Capitalism has concentrated wealth in China and the poorest are getting poorer again.

It seems like growth is useful in business.

We all know the resources are limited.

huh?

The PRC is very big on monitoring private citizens, and influencing their behavior with a system of social credits and demerits based on observed behavior. This also looks a lot like dystopian science fiction. China is a major world threat to freedom and democracy, while opinions vary.

That's just their variation of CCs...

If there is enough wealth involved, it will be pursued.

Isn't it high time we find a way to stop some of it?

I mean, we're mining the oceans already. If a serious problem arises, it could kill the planet. Literally.

In the mean time, some are already arguing who owns Mars. And beyond. Are we that idiotic?

 

[JohnRoberts]

You world view (movie) sounds really depressing...

I'll stick with my world view, but I am an optimist.

JR

 

[Gold]

I didn't specify "technical expert." Experience with logistics at a large company (or the military), or managing at one of the larger infratructure planning & design firms, or running the transportation department at the state level would be good examples. Mayors of small cities are juggling various balls, and while transportation is one of them, it is nowhere near as complex as it is at the national level. They spend more time electioneering than working. We need basic understanding and pragmatism much more than idealism. Mayor Pete has shown very little of the former qualities.

I meant that management experience is more important than technical expertise in the specific area when running a large agency.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

I meant that management experience is more important than technical expertise in the specific area when running a large agency.

Both are critical, IMO. Have you ever worked for a manager who knew little about what s/he was managing yet had lots of big ideas? I have. It rarely works out well for anyone. Mayor Pete seems like that kind of manager as do several others in this administration. Dangerously naive (clueless). On the wrong side of the Dunning-Kruger curve.

 

[Gold]

Mayor Pete hasn’t done a very good job selling the transportation bill. That’s a political job. I haven’t heard anything other than following orders from him. He’s either selling that or ‘working on supply chain issues’.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

He's pushing the crazy electric future without understanding the fundamental back-of-the-envelope math needed to support it. That indicates that not only is he clueless, but he either has hired clueless underlings or isn't listening to those who know these facts.

He's virtue signalling instead of solving actual transportation problems. He also seems to seek publicity like he's still running for President. Fail.

 

[living sounds]

This just came up:

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a35812573/steven-donziger-chevron-house-arrest/

Wow.

 

[fallout]

"Chevron has hired private investigators to track Donziger, created a publication just to smear him, and put together a legal team of hundreds of lawyers from 60 firms, who have successfully pursued an extraordinary campaign against him."

Where did I hear something like this before?

 

[living sounds]

"Chevron has hired private investigators to track Donziger, created a publication just to smear him, and put together a legal team of hundreds of lawyers from 60 firms, who have successfully pursued an extraordinary campaign against him."

Where did I hear something like this before?

In this day and age it was probably the internet or maybe TV.

 

[fallout]

Yea, something about Russian hookers..