Kavana(ugh)

[desol]

This does not mean I think he is innocent, I just don't know yet.
DaveP

What would she have to gain from this?

 

[DaveP]

What would she have to gain from this?

Very little, in fact it will probably have a very negative effect on her and her family.  The uncertainty in my mind revolves around mistaken identity, I believe she was assaulted but she was only 15  and she needs  to quantify time and place, maybe the FBI will be able to do that for her.

DaveP

 

[dmp]

If you look at data, false accusations are extremely rare while unreported assaults like this are extremely common.
There is an outpouring of people across the country reporting their own stories and one Republican senator told the media he heard stories of college assaults from his own daughters this week that he had never heard before.

Like stealing, cheating on your taxes, or other crimes that hurt other people, the violent behavior needs consequences and if empathy is not taught, then the fear of consequences needs to be the deterrent. It's incredible that a generation was raised without this (or at least a significant number of men).
It is so stunning about Kavanaugh precisely because he is a judge. He has spent his life overseeing a system that questions the accused and the accuser and administers justice, but he has reacted with belligerence and anger to the questions from Senators on the committee. Totally inappropriate in the system of justice that is foundation of the USA and the Constitution. It was a sworn testimony before the senate.

The Republican's turned this into a he said / she said. They blocked other witness testimony and allowed Kavanaugh to outright lie about it. Dr. Ford's friend said she did not remember the party but believed Dr. Ford. Kavanaugh said the friend 'refuted' Dr. Ford.

 

[JohnRoberts]

and the beat (down) goes on...  Suppose for a second that Judge Kavanaugh did not commit perjury (a felony) and testified honestly. Suppose he is an innocent man, I think he deserves some righteous indignation. The court of public opinion is not about facts but about "opinion" and we know how partisan that gets spun these days.

In another effort to appease the Democrats and put this behind us, President Trump has ordered a FBI background investigation of these specific charges.  This is limited in time to thwart the obvious strategy of trying to delay this vote (as Sen Schumer has openly called for. )

The public has an odd understanding of what the FBI can do and will do. They will merely collect statements and assemble them into a report making no assessment toward veracity or guilt. It will be a little difficult to canvass the neighborhood looking for evidence if the accuser does not know where the event happened, or when. Perhaps they can reconstruct an approximate date  from the testimony that she saw Judge (Kavanaugh friend) working at a market several weeks later. Further the FBI cannot compel statements, they can only take voluntary testimony (but under penalty of law for lying).

I wouldn't mind the FBI looking into the behavior of the legislators involved in this situation (like the leaks), but that is not their job. The public also expects the FBI to be non-partisan. History has revealed some snakes in that wood pile. Maybe the FBI can also investigate Michael Avenatti and the web of lawyers involved in these sundry allegations. 

I am willing to bet this does not end in one week,,, The democratic strategy is to delay this past the mid-term election and so far they are getting their way. I suspect more accusations will come out of the shadows, not because Judge Kavanaugh is guilty but because they are necessary to delay this further.

Enjoy the political theater, it appears the audience is participating too.

JR

“One of the things taken out of the curriculum was civics. Civics was a class that used to be required before you could graduate from high school. You were taught what was in the U.S. Constitution. And after all the student rebellions in the Sixties, civics was banished from the student curriculum and was replaced by something called social studies. Here we live in a country that has a fabulous constitution and all these guarantees, a contract between the citizens and the government – nobody knows what’s in it…And so, if you don’t know what your rights are, how can you stand up for them? And furthermore, if you don’t know what’s in the document, how can you care if someone is shredding it?”

 

[L´Andratté]

And while everybody is stumbling around this political haze, it is a wonderful time for passing 3.8 trillion tax cuts, I´m sure this in no way related to any swamp. All to help the honest working man and for the best of the society, right?

Really shameless.

 

[Gold]

and the beat (down) goes on...  Suppose for a second that Judge Kavanaugh did not commit perjury (a felony) and testified honestly. Suppose he is an innocent man, I think he deserves some righteous indignation.

Judges are challenged all day every day about their decisions. Answering tough questions while maintaining composure is part of the job. The senators were doing  their job.  If he was unable to maintain his composure that’s bad. If he was putting on a show that’s also bad.

Maybe the FBI can also investigate Michael Avenatti and the web of lawyers involved in these sundry allegations. 

If he decides to run for office he will come under tremendous scrutiny. As well he should. You might think he’s sleazy but as he said he wasn’t the one having unprotected sex with a porn star while his wife was at home with his four month old child.

I am willing to bet this does not end in one week,,, The democratic strategy is to delay this past the mid-term election and so far they are getting their way

Even if that’s true delay seemed a okay when it was Obama’s nominee. McConnell’s brilliant delay strategy might not be so brilliant in hindsight. If the dems take Senate, Garland and Gorsuch will look a lot better.

 

[JohnRoberts]

And while everybody is stumbling around this political haze, it is a wonderful time for passing 3.8 trillion tax cuts, I´m sure this in no way related to any swamp. All to help the honest working man and for the best of the society, right?

Really shameless.

Haze...?

That was renewing the temporary tax cut already in place.

With the GDP currently growing around 4% (much faster than experts predicted was even possible) economic growth can help reduce deficits. Both parties spend too much. I would reduce spending before raising taxes. IIRC the current budget agreement is only extended through  Dec so we will return to this debate after the mid terms.

Politicians always like to keep a fight going on the back burner, to stir up their base... They chose put this one (budget) on hold for now. Perhaps they see bigger fish to fry?

JR 

 

[JohnRoberts]

Judges are challenged all day every day about their decisions. Answering tough questions while maintaining composure is part of the job. The senators were doing  their job.  If he was unable to maintain his composure that’s bad. If he was putting on a show that’s also bad.

Did you watch the entire hearing? I did  :'(...  His composure ebbed and flowed during the testimony (as if to a script  : ).  Don't make sweeping conclusions from one or two brief sound bites... the whole thing was an exercise in extracting impactful sound bites for rebroadcast. It was clearly a show for political public consumption, otherwise it would have been held behind closed doors and without wall to wall TV coverage.

If he decides to run for office he will come under tremendous scrutiny.

You understand he is nominated for SCOTUS (a lifetime appointment) and has already been under scrutiny since his name was published on a list of SCOTUS candidates 2 years ago.

As well he should. You might think he’s sleazy but as he said he wasn’t the one having unprotected sex with a porn star while his wife was at home with his four month old child.

as who said?

Even if that’s true delay seemed a okay when it was Obama’s nominee. McConnell’s brilliant delay strategy might not be so brilliant in hindsight. If the dems take Senate, Garland and Gorsuch will look a lot better.

For the record Harry Reid first opened the "nuclear option" can of worms for President Obama's judicial appointments (recall that both sides want to stack the courts with philosophically friendly justices.). McConnell just extended Reid's rule change to SCOTUS. I am not pleased with either move but senate rules are rules not laws so can be changed by the leadership. Yes, the pendulum swings back and forth and this looks to me like karma for Reid's earlier change.  (For the nth time in this very thread I recommended approving Garland.)

I am not smart enough to predict the mid-term outcome, but it appears both sides are pretty engaged, while mid-terms are generally low turnout votes.

I should be happy with more people paying attention to the government, but the media coverage seems inflammatory, so low information voters are getting fed short sound bites out of context that paint one distorted picture or another, not the whole truth. Good luck following this circus and making sense of this if you haven't been paying close attention all along.

I wish I could return to ignoring DC between elections. 

JR

 

[Gold]

Did you watch the entire hearing? I did  :'(...  His composure ebbed and flowed during the testimony (as if to a script  : ).  Don't make sweeping conclusions from one or two brief sound bites... the whole thing was an exercise in extracting impactful sound bites for rebroadcast. It was clearly a show for political public consumption, otherwise it would have been held behind closed doors and without wall to wall TV coverage. You understand he is nominated for SCOTUS (a lifetime appointment) and has already been under scrutiny since his name was published on a list of SCOTUS candidates 2 years ago. as who said? For the record Harry Reid first opened the "nuclear option" can of worms for President Obama's judicial appointments (recall that both sides want to stack the courts with philosophically friendly justices.). McConnell just extended Reid's rule change to SCOTUS. I am not pleased with either move but senate rules are rules not laws so can be changed by the leadership. Yes, the pendulum swings back and forth and this looks to me like karma for Reid's earlier change.  (For the nth time in this very thread I recommended approving Garland.)

Yes, I watched the whole thing. I think it was more of a performance than genuine emotion too. I understand the party in power gets to try to pack the court. That's why there was weak opposition to the obviously well qualified Gorsuch.

And who said?

Umm, Trump. I guess it depends on which day you catch him on as to what he says but he has never denied it. He tried to settle it with a no contest but Avanatti is holding out for a deposition from the President.

 

[hodad]

and the beat (down) goes on...  Suppose for a second that Judge Kavanaugh did not commit perjury (a felony) and testified honestly.
JR

But that would be supposing something that didn't happen.  That's the problem.  Kavanaugh lied.  Lied about his drinking.  Lied about stupid stuff like what slang in his yearbook meant.  He's also lied about his involvement in hackergate & various other matters as well(at other times before the Senate).  These are either demonstrable or "beyond a reasonable doubt" lies. 

So let's not suppose that he didn't commit perjury, because it's simply not true. 

Now, I'm happy to indulge your notion that it was a calculated performance.  It likely was.  It was absolutely Trumpian.  He displayed his righteous indignation, cast himself as a victim and attacked his accuser. 

He also reminded me of an addict asking, begging for money--lying his or her arse off no matter the contradictions, craziness, or outright absurdity of their words.  I've dealt with that a few times in my life--it's ugly and no fun.  And that's kind of how Kavanaugh sounded. 

Maybe it was calculated, maybe unhinged, maybe both. 

Nonetheless, you have 2 people--one who presents herself as helpful, non-hostile, nervous and emotional but not agitated.  And another who is hostile, agitated, dissembling, spouting conspiracy theories and refusing to answer many questions directly. 

None of that proves who is right or wrong.  But it would seem to warrant spending more time looking into Kavanaugh's record and Ford's charges against him.  (Which, of course, they seem to be doing.  How far the FBI will be allowed to dig remains to be seen.) 

 

[pucho812]

if you were accused of something and were adamant you didn't do it, you would be doing similar behavior.

this is an interesting look at body language
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGxr1VQ2dPI

 

[ruairioflaherty]

if you were accused of something and were adamant you didn't do it, you would be doing similar behavior.

this is an interesting look at body language
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGxr1VQ2dPI

An interesting look? From an expert?

Here's some of her best work, a take down of a teenage school shooting victim.  Classy.

5 minutes of googling shows that she, Mandy O'Brien is an Alex Jones style "entertainer".  This is toxic trash, just as much as some of the stuff on extreme left.

https://player.vimeo.com/video/256984545

 

[Banzai]

In another effort to appease the Democrats and put this behind us, President Trump has ordered a FBI background investigation of these specific charges.  This is limited in time to thwart the obvious strategy of trying to delay this vote (as Sen Schumer has openly called for. )

Flake isn't a Democrat.

I am willing to bet this does not end in one week,,, The democratic strategy is to delay this past the mid-term election and so far they are getting their way. I suspect more accusations will come out of the shadows, not because Judge Kavanaugh is guilty but because they are necessary to delay this further.

Worst kind of team politics when you can't look past your own bias, and admit he's a terrible candidate.

 

[DaveP]

An observation:

Have any others noticed that some people with  mild mental health problems, often pursue careers in that field in an effort to understand themselves?  I have known a few.

Dr Ford seems to fit that category to me, she is most unlike other psychologists  IMHO.  Normally a doctorate in most professions imparts a certain gravitas born out of knowledge and experience.  She had the nervousness of a teenager, not a mature woman.  She is obviously a complex woman with complex problems, the fact that she attended counselling with her husband over wanting two front doors rings warning bells in my mind, her husband must have the patience of a saint.

Why would a woman with several degrees need to seek the advice of a third party when she is so qualified herself?  The confusion over dates bothers me too.  I was sexually assaulted when I was 11 years old by 15/16 year old boy scouts during our first night under canvas in the summer of 1961, I know the year but I have difficulty remembering their names, because I immediately left the scouts on my return home, I was too embarrassed to tell my parents but I told the scout leader I was being "bullied" and I was moved to another tent with younger boys.

I don't doubt Dr Ford was assaulted  at some stage in her life but I  felt the hearing threw up more questions than answers.  Why has she flown so much when she has a fear of flying?  It would have helped if she had said this was some kind of self-imposed therapy.  There is also the degree of coaching that she was subject too that worries me.  Why was she wearing a bathing suit, that is not normal behaviour  unless you planned to go swimming at some venue?

I have no idea about who is telling the truth, I'm just sharing some thoughts.

DaveP

 

[cyrano]

Why would a woman with several degrees need to seek the advice of a third party when she is so qualified herself?

I'd think that is fairly obvious: You can't consult yourself because you ar too close to the subject. Standard procedure I'd say.

 

[desol]

Off topic. Another one...Ronaldo. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45698134

I saw this dude hanging no doubt, with Conor McGregor. Another model citizen.

There seems to be a fairly common thread through all of these types of accusations. An over inflated sense of self because of money and power, that(in these cases) manifests as sexual harassment and violence towards women.

 

[Matador]

Why has she flown so much when she has a fear of flying?

Probably for the same reason Trump raw-dogged a porn star, despite being an admitted germaphobe.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Flake isn't a Democrat.

He is a republican who has announced he won't run for re-election. Some suspect he is considering a 2020 run for POTUS.

He met (secretly? not much of a secret) with democrats on the committee before flipping his realignment to the democrat party line requiring a FBI investigation to secure his important swing vote. Reminds me a little of Chris Christie Hugging President Obama for TV cameras after Sandy, to bolster his POTUS aspirations and throwing Romney under the bus just before the vote. Its what some politicians do, when they see a self-aggrandizing political opportunity, with cameras rolling, and lots of people paying attention.

The rest of the pasty old white men, didn't want to appear like they were bullying the frail woman (victim), so went along with the new delay. 

Worst kind of team politics when you can't look past your own bias, and admit he's a terrible candidate.

As usual I refuse to debate what and how I decide things. I consider myself the expert about what I think. That said this whole show trial and circus looks like team politics on steroids, with plenty of bias to go around on both sides.

===
The body language review seems overtly partisan but raises a few good questions.

I liked the prosecutor who did the questioning and would like to see where she would take questioning given a free hand. She has experience questioning such "victims" and raised some good points in her closing comments.

I do not expect that we will ever get much more fact than we already have. Ford's lawyers have already objected to the one week time limit which is consistent with the team politic's strategy of just delay.

=====
How did we get into this divisive culture where the two sides hunker down in their red and blue trenches and fire random shots above their heads indiscriminately at each other.  Who benefits from this hyper-divisive modern culture, not we the people.

For a short list of who benefits, media outlets (ratings/ads), newspapers (readers/ads), political consultants (jobs/pay), TV talking heads (jobs/pay), party leaders (fund raising and base energizing red meat). How many could make a full time career of partisan TV appearances before this century? Both sides are raising campaign money using this political theater show hearing. Fund raising requests went out before the hearing was even finished.

I truly hope I am not contributing to this divisive nature, but probably am (mea culpa). 

Good luck to us all. Try to have a relaxing Sunday and be a little more classy with the ad hominem.

JR

 

[desol]

How did we get into this divisive culture where the two sides hunker down in their red and blue trenches and fire random shots above their heads indiscriminately at each other.  Who benefits from this hyper-divisive modern culture, not we the people.

Shouldn't it be quite obvious by now?

 

[living sounds]

The rest of the pasty old white men, didn't want to appear like they were bullying the frail woman (victim), so went along with the new delay. 

They had no majority to promote their candidate next week, that's why they went along with the delay.

As for Flake, from all the footage I've seen he seemed sincerely troubled. Why, John, is it your go-to approach to question someone's s senserity whenever they disagree with you?