The Vaccine

[crazydoc]

Seems like maybe there are more people here getting vaccinated than is thought to have resided here. Maybe they are undocumented in the census ?

Even if they aren't reflected in the census numbers, they need to be added to the total population for an accurate percentage of those vaccinated. You can't have more people vaccinated than there are people - otherwise the numbers are just bullshit.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I agree that it would be useful if "natural immunity" were factored in - maybe in addition to vaccination per cent, another status called "immunity" should be added, totaling the vaccinated and the number of cases. This would be difficult if not impossible though, subtracting those who were vaccinated and had a breakthrough case, and those who had the disease and then were vaccinated. And now of course there will be another category added - "boosted." And then, are people who had the disease and then got vaccinated, or who had a breakthrough case, "boosted"?

But not really important to me any more. I just do the best I can to keep me and mine as safe as possible, while living a reasonable life, and let the chips fall where they may. If others want to fuck themselves or their community, so be it.

There seems to be a desire to manage covid down to zero infections, but that is unlikely. Similar to the flu it will just keep evolving. At some point we need to man up and treat this like one of the sundry causes of death that we take for granted.

I guess we need to get excess deaths down into the statistical noise, probably not there for some time yet.

I am optimistic about now treatments to prevent hospitalizations and death. Next year will be better, but winter is coming.

JR

 

[scott2000]

Even if they aren't reflected in the census numbers, they need to be added to the total population for an accurate percentage of those vaccinated. You can't have more people vaccinated than there are people - otherwise the numbers are just bullshit.

Yeah...
Even things like racial disparity seems it could be goofed if that's not figured in ? Deaths per 100000 would be confusing if the numbers are based on a census maybe.

 

[ruffrecords]

I am not sure you could reliably include natural immunity. How could you possibly measure it? Loads of people get Covid and have zero symptoms. Presumably they then have natual immunity but I can see no way to measure this.

Cheers

IAn

 

[JohnRoberts]

I am not sure you could reliably include natural immunity. How could you possibly measure it? Loads of people get Covid and have zero symptoms. Presumably they then have natual immunity but I can see no way to measure this.

Cheers

IAn

You could measure for antibodies but I am not suggesting that.... maybe we should presume a certain non-zero level of natural antibodies and perhaps lighten up on the severe lockdowns and immunizing low risk children with "experimental" vaccines.

For the record I am dosed up, but I am old and did the math for me.... YMMV

JR

 

[crazydoc]

I am not sure you could reliably include natural immunity. How could you possibly measure it? Loads of people get Covid and have zero symptoms. Presumably they then have natual immunity but I can see no way to measure this.

Cheers

IAn

I agree - another reason that immunity can't be easily quantified. I suppose you could mandate weekly antibody tests for everyone in the population who hasn't been vaccinated or had a positive PCR test, but I doubt that would be very popular.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Perfection is the enemy of good....

JR

 

[ruffrecords]

I agree - another reason that immunity can't be easily quantified. I suppose you could mandate weekly antibody tests for everyone in the population who hasn't been vaccinated or had a positive PCR test, but I doubt that would be very popular.

But that would be unable to distinguish between people who had been vaccinated and those who gained immunity naturally.

I suspect the best measure of immunity is the number of reported cases.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Script]

Maybe 'number of reported cases' to hospitalization' ratio -- and maybe add 'exitus' ratio. Should give good overview. In Japan we get daily updates on:

-Number of infected people
The day before ratio
-Number of inpatients
The day before ratio
-Number of severely ill
The day before ratio
-Number of deaths
The day before ratio
-Number of general vaccinations
The day before ratio
(all in plain numbers and in graphs)

'General vaccination' here is simple count of shots. Fully vaccinated population would mean double of entire population. So 126M *2. But can also look up 1st/2nd shot ratio.

(For whatever reason they took 11M shots for healthcare workers out of the 'general vaccination' count.)

Plus every city and prefecture reports on their vaccination status in percentages by sex and age group.

Not sure how they ll count boosters. My guess is they'll add an extra category.

___
Testing entire population or parts of pop.. repeatedly for antibodies is not only logistically challenging, it's also time-consuming and makes everything even more expensive -- therefore most likely a waste of resources and time...

Here they managed to push number of people who end up in ICU and leave hospital horizontally below 50%. For the other half (and anybody else) who gets over an infection still breathing but suffering from prolonged health issues, they are establishing offer of rehab infrastructure and are or are talking about expanding the family support benefit system (loss of household income etc etc etc).

These latter are all way more expensive than unconditionally paying two, three or, for some, even more shots, I'd assume.

 

[crazydoc]

But that would be unable to distinguish between people who had been vaccinated and those who gained immunity naturally.

Not important - they're both immune, and probably about to the same degree, which is never 100%.

 

[LRRec]

But that would be unable to distinguish between people who had been vaccinated and those who gained immunity naturally.

Antibodies to Sars-Cov-2 nucleocapsid (N) protein are seen only in people with prior infection.

 

[cyrano]

This:

https://www.mpg.de/17722615/1021-pf...erity-of-covid-19-infection-early-on-149770-x
Could be a game-changer.

 

[crazydoc]

This:

https://www.mpg.de/17722615/1021-pf...erity-of-covid-19-infection-early-on-149770-x
Could be a game-changer.

Thanks - very interesting. Here's an easier to understand explanation:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-...t-whether-covid-patients-will-be-hospitalized
Basically, as I understand it, cells that are "sub-optimal" - that is, aged, damaged or less functional for various reasons, express a gene as a surface protein (hFwe-Lose) that signals surrounding cells, which then destroy that cell. Apparently these cells (the ones that are in the lung) are more easily infected and killed by the virus, so the more of these cells you have, the more severe the disease you get. By identifying a person's proportion of these cells through a nasal swab, a prediction can be made as to how severe a disease and possibly risk of death that person has.

Neat!

 

[scott2000]

Looks like another place has over 100% vaccination numbers attributed to a number of people who cross the border for work regularly.

"Gibraltar's vaccination rate sits at 118 per cent, due to the Covid jabs administrated to people that live in Spain who cross the border to work or visit the territory every day."

"The recent spike has forced health authorities to reintroduce mandatory mask laws for indoor spaces and public transport. The government also said there would be no official parties, receptions and similar gatherings over Christmas due to a rise in infections."

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/the-most-...rld-introduces-new-covid-rules-215747786.html

 

[cyrano]

I know a few weirdos who succeeded in receiving two different vaccinations. They figured two would be better than one.

 

[Tubetec]

Here in the earlier phases of the trial some people got dual vaccinations also , it was purely supply/demand driven or so we were told .
Issue with that is if something goes wrong now your fighting two legal battles , and your probably less likely to win on either front.

I see the talk about following suit with Austria in making vaccines manditory has sparked riots in Belgium and Holland . . We have one of the highest rates of vaccination take up on the planet here in Ireland at 95% , now booster shots are on the way too. The spread of the virus is following more or less the same trajectory as last winter season , on top of that contact tracing in schools has been abandoned and even PCR testing is unavailable at most test centres in the last week or so . At least the UK are subsidising antigen tests , you simply make a call and how ever many tests you want arrive in the post next day . Members of the government here are still laying the blame at the feet of the unvaxxed for the spread but dont seem to want to do the actual science(testing) to verify . We might have made much better use of the vaccines if people who already had antibodies from a real covid infection werent dosed unessesairily and maybe used as a sort of 'control group' . Either way this suggestion that its the 5% unvaxxed are responsible is a dangerous message to spread , potential benefits of vaccine usage were way way overplayed in the media by the politicians , resulting in false confidence and more risk taking behaviour on behalf of the vaxxed .
Its human behaviour thats the driver of this disease .

 

[MicDaddy]

" Happy Holidays "

 

[Script]

The question is how many people and who ends up in hospital, forcing other surgery to be postponed, straining infrastructures and, in the worst case, making broader contact limitations necessary yet again.

Especially the latter (kind of partial to full lockdown) can easily become unavoidable, yet is fully undesirable as many a (smaller) business might not survive a second round.

The vaccine helps keeping people out of hospital and intensive care -- not everybody but most of the vaccinated. Hence boosters.

[handle with care]
I'd say, without wanting to blame anyone, that the right of a person sees a limit (read : right to a disease) when it starts to cut deep into the liberties of other people.
[/handle with care]

 

[MicDaddy]

Most people do not need hospital intervention statistically.
With so many vaccinated, that many are speaking of locking back down is really fn sad, infinite loop of the state.
Good luck everyone

 

[Script]

Yes, it's all part of a (pressure) game that was foreseeable. Very sad. Austria introduced quasi shutout of unvaccinated people (a bit like Italy). OTOH, queues at vaccination centres (1st / 2nd) get longer again. Probably good but somewhat sad indeed.

Wisely planned holiday preparations to all !