The Vaccine

[john12ax7]

With as little information as we have about this virus and its origins, it is difficult to apply rules of plausibility.

I don't agree, you can still make logical deductions based on limited information.

Let's examine the asymptomatic case. Person A lives every day in close contact with Person B. What would be required for Person A to get and recover from an asymptomatic infection and not expose Person B in the process? Person A would need to leave the house in the morning, be exposed to the virus, replicate it, develop an asymptomatic infection, recover from that, and then clear the virus to no longer be infectious, all before returning home in the evening so as to not then expose Person B. This would all need to happen in a span of maybe 12 hours. Does that seem a plausible scenario given that the incubation and infectious period is normally on the order of days? If there is data to support such a compressed timeline being a common occurrence then please present it. Barring that we should all be able to agree that is an unlikely scenario.

 

[scott2000]

Does that seem a plausible scenario

Not really.

The Imperial College study article crazydoc posted on the last page had some interesting stuff though. Not sure I understand how half the participants given the virus couldn't become infected but I only read the bullets. It mentioned that nasal droplets were most likely to be the main avenue of spread as well I think. So sneezing maybe....
Here's the study I think..

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1121993/v1

 

[john12ax7]

Not sure I understand how half the participants given the virus couldn't become infected

That's the big question, and there doesn't seem to be enough data on it. Some people just don't seem to get it at all. There are probably some genetic factors. Blood type seems to play a factor. Gender seems to have some influence. Some might have developed a stronger immune response due to the vaccine. And then there is just overall health and well being through diet and exercise. It's a real shame all these other factors aren't emphasised and studied more. But as always, it probably comes down to money. Not a lot to be made recommending people take vitamin D.

 

[JohnRoberts]

too many variables...

JR

 

[crazydoc]

Some people just don't seem to get it at all.

That's right - like just about every other disease - not at all surprising. Each individual has his own immune system, shaped by genetics, environmental exposures, and stuff we don't understand (yet?) Some people get a disease when exposed to it, and others, with the same exposure, don't get it. My brother and sisters all got mumps (back in olden times before the MMR vaccine), same family, same exposure, but I didn't, and never have (and as a physician I had a number of exposures to it). Go figure.

Maybe, further evaluation of those individuals in the article I cited will lead to some explanation of why half of them, though inoculated, never got the disease and never shed any virus.

"This first report focuses on safety, tolerability and virological responses, but the uniquely controlled nature of the model will also enable robust identification of host factors present at the time of inoculation and associated with protection in those individuals who resisted infection. Analysis of local and systemic immune markers (including potentially cross-reactive antibodies, T cells and soluble mediators) from this SARS-CoV-2 human challenge study that may explain these differences in susceptibility are therefore ongoing."

 

[JohnRoberts]

too many variables...

JR

 

[cyrano]

A fair bit of randomness in such a system. Biologically, a certain loss of individuals is beneficial to the species.

In absence of a predator, rabbits get sick. Every yin needs a yang etc.

There is a search going on for people who are naturally immune. Some Dutch guy even wanted to volunteer because he and his son weren't infected, while all other members of the family tested positive and a few were really sick.

If you see what one fungus, native to Korea, can do to amphibians when it spreads all over the world, you start to understand what it could mean to the human species. Nature is a harsh mistress.

 

[JohnRoberts]

A fair bit of randomness in such a system. Biologically, a certain loss of individuals is beneficial to the species.

natural selection, survival of the fittest. I think I joked over a year ago that obese, older people (like parents) dying wouldn't be missed by some kids. I didn't say it was a good joke.

In absence of a predator, rabbits get sick. Every yin needs a yang etc.

unbounded some species can run out of resources (food). Australia didn't get the imported European rabbit population under control until the late 20th century and they are blamed for (other) species loss, crop losses, erosion, etc.

There is a search going on for people who are naturally immune. Some Dutch guy even wanted to volunteer because he and his son weren't infected, while all other members of the family tested positive and a few were really sick.

If you see what one fungus, native to Korea, can do to amphibians when it spreads all over the world, you start to understand what it could mean to the human species. Nature is a harsh mistress.

It's not nice to fool mother nature. I spray my pecan trees and one spray I use is a bacteria that selectively kills tent caterpillars.

JR

 

[JW]

But JR, the ones that survive the spray become super caterpillars. And will tent your house! They will eat the bacteria in the spray, and become villainous monsters.

 

[JohnRoberts]

But JR, the ones that survive the spray become super caterpillars. And will tent your house! They will eat the bacteria in the spray, and become villainous monsters.

In my experience the spray was very effective. I went from tens of caterpillar nests around my yard on several trees to almost zero.. I think there was one tent last year higher up one tree than my spray could reach.

JR

 

[cyrano]

Malacosoma? But which one? Americanum or Californium?

Of course, we, in Europe have a better ecological solution for Malacosoma caterpillars. We burn them...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Malacosoma? But which one? Americanum or Californium?

probably Americanum, I never asked them

Bonide (BND802) - Leaf Eating Worm & Moth Killer, Thuricide Bacillus Thuringiensis (Bt) Outdoor Insecticide/Pesticide

Of course, we, in Europe have a better ecological solution for Malacosoma caterpillars. We burn them...

years ago I used to cut them down and burn them on my fallen tree limb fire, now I just kill them before they eat tree leaves and trash my pecan trees. Pretty tall trees so hard to even spray them, impossible to trim them all... perhaps a flame thrower drone could be fun...but by then they have done some damage.

JR

 

[cyrano]

My son and his mother both tested positive. I didn't. Both suffered from what seemed a very mild cold. I had the same symptoms. Strange isn't it?

Both my son and his mother only tested positive on the second test, some days after the first test.

The end of Covid misery might just be getting near?

 

[john12ax7]

Some are calling omicron nature's vaccine. With its rapid spread herd immunity could be just around the corner. And with it a potential return to normalcy.

 

[crazydoc]

Posted 12/8/2020

Anyway, I'm done with this. In the end, those of us living are all going to have covid antibodies one way or the other. I'm shot and boosted, and so are those I care about. So be it.

Posted 12/24/2020

Omicron saves the day.

I think we are going to have a big surge of infections, most with mild or no symptoms, in the next month or two. Just from sheer numbers of infections, even though most at no risk, it will be difficult for hospitals and sick people. Then, barring a new variant that escapes current immunity, the pandemic aspect will be over. Survivors (everybody) will have immunity, whether from vaccination, disease or both.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Dr. "I am science" has shared that we may be seeing the end of the Covid Pandemic....

I thought it was supposed to be over Feb1.....

But I remain an optimist.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00214-3

 

[Tubetec]

I havent felt like contributing much on this sub forum lately , although I do drop in for a look once in a while .
Hopefully we seem to be returning to a more conciliatory tone from all sides as we start getting back to living again .

 

[AnalogPackrat]

JAMA article about natural immunity censored by LinkedIn. Really?

 

[MicDaddy]

Local radio has finally started reporting age and vax status of those that die (it's a small number of older people both vax'd and unvax'd)

This signals to me the slow programming of what will be capitulation to normal.

Cat has been out of the bag, bagholders still suffering buyer's remorse... rip the bandaid and everyone gets ice cream.

CPI (although methodologically deviating from intended scope) is at crazy high numbers and Russia still hasn't invaded Ukraine but we're all super distracted that they fleeced you into paying for shots that didn't work while the world sat at home taking out loans making nothing and everyone is confused as to why the money is broken... fun times.. Gold and bitcoin up on the numbers.