Brexit

[thermionic]

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/people-are-really-really-hoping-this-theory-about-david-cameron-and-brexit-is-true--bJhqBql0VZ

This is something that occurred to me several days ago, so I suspect it's hardly an original thought. It's one thing to stick a knife in, quite another to twist it to make sure the victim is dead. However, sadly, I've come to the conclusion that Johnson is sufficiently bent-on-power that he'll take the risk. He risked everything for the sake of his own power by jumping ship to the Leave camp, when he hadn't uttered a peep against the EU in the previous decades. A man capable of taking that risk is likely capable of signing Article 50, in the hope that people cleverer than him will be able to pick up the pieces left by the destruction and do something creative with them.

We ought to remember that Johnson is a man, along with Cameron and Osborne, that was born into such immense financial privilege that the only path left for him to take in life was to accede to power.  He's not where he is out of vision or substance. If he appeared sombre after his win it was most likely a show, designed not to alienate the 48% of the electorate who could rightly see what an appalling outcome leaving the EU would have.

 

[zebra50]

A general election is highly likely.

Whoever wins the tory leadership will need to survive a commons vote of confidence to become prime minister. That seems unlikely given current divisions. A no confidence outcome would trigger an election.

And a general election campaign manifesto could include the promise of a second referendum.

This is all going to drag on for years.

 

[DerEber]

What really would help the people to belief that their vote counts and they have a voice in a democratic system is a leave now.
This would also lead to that a lot of people would get their ass up and start informing themselves in how this thing work.
Everyone is in responsibility of the whole.
If your now not going to be straight with your decision people will feel even more that someone else is deciding and turn their back to democracy. I see the possibility that this will be worse for your country than anything else.

Based on what seemed to be the point for the Brexit, It was not a very wise vote.
Anyhow I see many chances that you roll your own thing and prove that some things can be handled different than we all did the last decades.

 

[micaddict]

 

[DaveP]

If your now not going to be straight with your decision people will feel even more that someone else is deciding and turn their back to democracy. I see the possibility that this will be worse for your country than anything else.

I think there have been  behind the scenes discussions with Merkel and Hollande to allow Britain time to deal with this.  There is no precedent for a course of action, it is being made up as we go along.  If it is discovered that it is not in the national interest to invoke article 50, then it won't happen.  The referendum was advisory and not law, otherwise article 50 would have been sent immediately.  There will almost certainly be a general election very soon, either before negotiations to obtain authority for a new PM, or after a deal to get national agreement.  The UK parliament will have the final say, they expect more power now that the referendum has rejected the EU, not less.

3,735,887

DaveP

 

[ruffrecords]

The referendum was advisory and not law, otherwise article 50 would have been sent immediately. 

DaveP

I think you will find the government is legally bound to implement the wish expressed in the referendum whether they agree with it or not. The legal phrasing is that the government is under a “democratic duty to give effect to the electorate’s decision”

Cheers

Ian

 

[Banzai]

Shoving democracy down the world's throat for decades, justifying all sorts of ludicrous military campaigns with the promise of self-determination and freedom for the oppressed... only to turn around at home, and say 'sorry, you're too stupid to make this decision'?

The change the rules because I don't like the result thing is even worse...

 

[DaveP]

I think you will find the government is legally bound to implement the wish expressed in the referendum whether they agree with it or not. The legal phrasing is that the government is under a “democratic duty to give effect to the electorate’s decision”

The change the rules because I don't like the result thing is even worse...

Listening to the government this afternoon, it looks  like we are "leaving", so don't worry about that.

But listening to Boris this morning it will be leaving, "but not as you know it", he seems to want access to the EU and free movement of people, which is not what you lot voted for, so maybe you will be calling for a second referendum if he dilutes your message, he is not known for his integrity after all ???

3,757,269

DaveP

 

[Banzai]

Don't worry about me; I wasn't for Brexit, and think all politicians belong in a circus.

 

[ruffrecords]

I think you will find the government is legally bound to implement the wish expressed in the referendum whether they agree with it or not. The legal phrasing is that the government is under a “democratic duty to give effect to the electorate’s decision”

The change the rules because I don't like the result thing is even worse...

Listening to the government this afternoon, it looks  like we are "leaving", so don't worry about that.

But listening to Boris this morning it will be leaving, "but not as you know it", he seems to want access to the EU and free movement of people, which is not what you lot voted for, so maybe you will be calling for a second referendum if he dilutes your message, he is not known for his integrity after all ???

3,757,269

DaveP

The reason for that is we could leave the EU but still wish to be part of the common market. Free movement is a condition of that and there is a huge annual membership fee  - the so called Norwegian model. But this is all part of the negotiations to come. Pointless to preempt it.

Edit:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/after-brexit-only-one-thing-can-keep-britain-together-the-norway/

Cheers

Ian

 

[DaveP]

The reason for that is we could leave the EU but still wish to be part of the common market. Free movement is a condition of that and there is a huge annual membership fee  - the so called Norwegian model. But this is all part of the negotiations to come. Pointless to preempt it.

Edit:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/after-brexit-only-one-thing-can-keep-britain-together-the-norway/

That seems like a lot of common sense to me and something we could all agree on.  But it is not what the working class voters thought was going to happen, for them it was all about immigration.

3,800,202

DaveP

 

[zebra50]

>the so called Norwegian model

Is Norway really in the common market? Because I certainly have to pay tax on imports from Norway, and my Norwegian customers have to pay tax to get stuff from Britain. Same for Switzerland (and Canada for that matter).

 

[[silent:arts]]

Is Norway really in the common market? Because I certainly have to pay tax on imports from Norway, and my Norwegian customers have to pay tax to get stuff from Britain. Same for Switzerland (and Canada for that matter).

Don't confuse tax (your local VAT on import in this case) and customs fees.

 

[thermionic]

'Not everyone who voted for Brexit is racist, but the racists certainly voted for Brexit'

 

[ruffrecords]

That seems like a lot of common sense to me and something we could all agree on.  But it is not what the working class voters thought was going to happen, for them it was all about immigration.

3,800,202

DaveP

You keep saying that but I see no real evidence for this. Here in North Norfolk we have lots of immigrants and the place would fall to pieces without them in the holiday season and at harvest time. They integrate very well with the community yet North Norfolk voted overwhelmingly to leave.

I just read the Remain petition is being investigated as it has been discovered that 77,000 signatures are fraudulent.

Cheers

ian

 

[DaveP]

You keep saying that but I see no real evidence for this. Here in North Norfolk we have lots of immigrants and the place would fall to pieces without them in the holiday season and at harvest time. They integrate very well with the community yet North Norfolk voted overwhelmingly to leave.

I just read the Remain petition is being investigated as it has been discovered that 77,000 signatures are fraudulent.

It was north of you in Rutland and up the Yorkshire coast.  There is an advert filler piece on Sky internet news that shows people from these areas complaining about too many immigrants.  There is also the spate of hate crimes at the moment where yobs feel they have been given a licence to tell Blacks, Asians and Poles to go back home.

There were 80,000 fraudulent votes deleted, incidentally, if you click on the map on the petition website, where it say "show map", you can see all the lighter coloured areas up north where the vote to leave was strongest, these are where the interviews were conducted.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

3,885,075

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

You know any argument is over when they invoke comparisons to hitler.  ;D (not quite there yet but getting closer ).

I was pondering why the betting pool was sooo wrong, and one data point is that the large "remain"  bets  were generally 10X the bet size of the "exit" bets (>100k pounds, vs 10k pounds).  Perhaps a money weighted betting line didn't accurately reflect a one man one vote election. .... 

or not, just speculating.

JR

PS: Even Soros was long the pound so he believed the betting line too.

 

[Script]

Speculating here too but I guess the betting pool was so wrong because

(1) Voters are never ever fully rational and they most often never ever really see the full/big picture (which should indeed be left to the many experts in the various fields of employment law, trade law, economics, etc etc etc)
(2) The campaigns were dreadfully one-dimensional -- meaning, it would have taken expert panels balancing the various sides for months (on TV etc) to actually inform the public to the last detail showing the consequences (and future pain involved in both options).
(3) It seemed unlikely that the 'leave' campaign could ever successfully condense at least four different but entirely unrelated motives into slogans of national pride and neo-liberalism and make that fly.
(4) The betting pool looked with economic common sense (that is, from their perspective) at what was at stake, carefully weighing the advantages and disadvantages (economic/political/future prospective/historical etc), and came to the conclusion that staying in the EU is after all the better option in the long run (that's a favourable view of the guild. The less favourable one is: they simply couldn't resist betting). Either way, the betting pool could simply not imagine that an entire people could be so dissatisfied (again: for different reasons) that they'd ever risk cutting into their own flesh.

It will be interesting to observe how Britain will now maneouvre the mix of national pride (Farage),  neo2-liberal economics (Gove) and not-sure-what (Johnson) that got voted, and how that gets aligned in their dealing with the EU and selling it to the British public.

 

[abbey road d enfer]

But listening to Boris this morning it will be leaving, "but not as you know it", he seems to want access to the EU and free movement of people

I guess you are familiar with the French expression "le beurre, l'argent du beurre, et le cul de la crèmière", which could be translated as "have the cake and eat the cake, and have some nice cuddling with the cook".
Many people in Europe are fed up with the British diva attitude, and pushing for a speedy implementation.
How many times shall we repeat "this is not the Europe we voted for (or against...?)"

 

[JohnRoberts]

Another interesting consequence of a UK pull-out is that the english language will lose utility for EU communications/documentation.

I guess Germany becomes the new big dog in EU , not that they weren't the big dog before.

JR