COVID-19

[JohnRoberts]

L.a. is in lockdown mode.
It’s crazy. The mayor decreed a bunch of things such as movie theaters closed, restaurants half capacity to closing and only doing deliveries/pick up, and bars are closed. All this until  minimum March 31.
Most if not all businesses doing reduced hours.

Things are weird...
Stay safe out there guys.

How do they plan to deal with the street population?

====

I am seeing a lot of new doom and gloom, mixed in with the same old partisan mud slinging. This is not the existential crisis that everybody was hoping for, after being disappointed by climate change. While it could be pretty serious for elders and health compromised if mishandled. 

Everybody take a breath, just don't breath on me.  8)

----

I sense over-reaction in some quarters, and obvious under reaction from others. On the whole, over-reaction will improve public health outcomes, but will come at a high economic cost. We can live with that.

This economic downward pressure (slowed manufacturing output, mandated social distancing, etc) will probably result in GDP contraction ( recession) that so many were hoping for to diminish President Trump's re-election chances.  At least this will make those people happy. 

JR

PS: Sorry now I am reading minds... :  I stopped watching 60 minutes a few decades ago, but watched it last night to see what they are telling the sheeple to think about this pandemic... I really appreciate the FF button on my DVR.

 

[hodad]

I think he should have gotten the private labs involved sooner for testing. The CDC and FDA failed big time on that. We’ll see how it goes forward.

Something should have been done, and far more quickly.  Remember, Trump is the one who was calling coronavirus a "Democrat hoax."  Trump is the one who was so concerned with "his" numbers that he didn't want ill and potentially ill Americans to debark from a cruise ship.  Trump is the one who seemed convinced that this would all go away when the weather warmed up. 

While Trump certainly isn't to blame for the initial issues with the test, his own words and actions suggest he wasn't all that concerned with doing anything to rush things along (might make the numbers look bad, and it's all going away when the weather gets warm anyway.)  There's very little to suggest that Trump grasped the potential severity of the situation, or the urgency of the need for testing, as well as he really should have. 

There was a real failure of leadership here, and it's costing us as a nation.  Trump is still playing catchup with state & local leaders, colleges & universities, doctors and hospitals, sports teams & businesses.  Folks around the country have been making moves largely without strong federal guidance. 

I assure you, as much as I dislike Trump, I'd much rather be grudgingly giving him credit for doing a great job handling this than I would  worrying about the costs of his bungling.  It is what it is & we are where we are. 

 

[Tubetec]

That the only thing Trump can think of in this crisis is making a buck shows the true caliber of the man himself ,what an A-hole .

 

[living sounds]

I am seeing a lot of new doom and gloom, mixed in with the same old partisan mud slinging. This is not the existential crisis that everybody was hoping for, after being disappointed by climate change.

Once again I have to call you out (and you're the moderator). Do you read what you write here? People (let alone "everyone") were "hoping" for an existential crisis? That's actually insulting and completely turning causality on its head...

I hope this crisis will strengthen the role role of science vs. people making up stuff in their bubble. Corona is not an existential crisis for the planet, but climate change actually is.

 

[cyrano]

Welt am Sonntag German newspaper

JR

So you think Reuters are real amateurs? Don't do any fact checking. Like getting quotes from the govt?

Or maybe you would like to check the Orange Oracle™ himself? Who already reacted and admitted what he was up to...

 

[dmp]

Sad to see the team politics from conservatives when there is such a dire situation.

The fact of the matter is Republicans in the USA have been very irresponsible.
Trump cut a pandemic response team from government and has tried to cut funding from health agencies - like the CDC.
Trump & the Republican war on science and media has been doing significant damage for years - THAT is why people have been criticizing them. They didn't listen to experts that saw this coming when there would have been time to prepare.
Even once this started Democrats told Trump and the Republicans they needed a much bigger response (WH asked for 2.5 billion, Democrats said 8 Billion) and only got push back - now the Republican Senate is holding up a relief bill from the house.  The Republicans acted like ignorant children in 2008 (voting down TARP) and they are repeating the same mistakes now.
After blowing out the budget with big spending and big tax cuts over the last few years, now in a time of crisis they are switching back to austerity and crying about fiscal discipline. It's nuts.
Time to wake up - it is Trump and the conservative media that has been lying to you and leaving the country vulnerable for a disaster like this.  Many still think this is a Democratic hoax or other conspiracies.  Republicans in the House (Nunes, Gaetz) have been joking, telling people to go on as normal, etc... 

 

[dogears]

Something should have been done, and far more quickly.  Remember, Trump is the one who was calling coronavirus a "Democrat hoax."  Trump is the one who was so concerned with "his" numbers that he didn't want ill and potentially ill Americans to debark from a cruise ship.  Trump is the one who seemed convinced that this would all go away when the weather warmed up. 

While Trump certainly isn't to blame for the initial issues with the test, his own words and actions suggest he wasn't all that concerned with doing anything to rush things along (might make the numbers look bad, and it's all going away when the weather gets warm anyway.)  There's very little to suggest that Trump grasped the potential severity of the situation, or the urgency of the need for testing, as well as he really should have. 

There was a real failure of leadership here, and it's costing us as a nation.  Trump is still playing catchup with state & local leaders, colleges & universities, doctors and hospitals, sports teams & businesses.  Folks around the country have been making moves largely without strong federal guidance. 

I assure you, as much as I dislike Trump, I'd much rather be grudgingly giving him credit for doing a great job handling this than I would  worrying about the costs of his bungling.  It is what it is & we are where we are.

One, I agree his initial messaging was irresponsible. The hoax comment was basically taken out of context and it was very clear that the point he was saying was a hoax was the political response. Do keep in mind that when he closed down traffic to China, people criticized him for moving too fast. It is always best to watch what people do rather than what they say. I think so far the US response has been middle of the pack - behind places like Singapore and S Korea, well ahead of places like Italy and Iran.

Aside from the bungle of the test kits - and again, note well you haven't seen ANY of the first faces of the CDC in recent times...all are now sidelined, and that's for a reason - I think we moved quickly. Far quicker than anyone else did, especially based on a cases per capita number. Even if we're under testing by 50% compared to everyone else with doubling every 3-6 days that means you just add or subtract a week to compare notes. We're significantly ahead of the curve.

I give credit to guys like Dr Fauci, and for the administration for listening to and empowering the right people. That's really all any administration can do. For what it's worth, President Obama also consulted with Dr Fauci during the influenza A - H1N1 outbreak in 2009, and took his advice which was - do nothing, it is not severe enough. I give as much credit to Dr Fauci for making a good call then (out of 60,000,000 cases only 12,000 deaths over a year) as I do to President Obama for listening to him. Likewise President Trump.

That being said, the cautionary tale here is not about the Trump administration. It is about government in general. The CDC and FDA are staffed with career bureaucrats. The vast majority of the USG is entrenched and doesn't change from administration to administration. If they bungled this, it's not solely attributable to the current administration or the former. Large organizations move slowly, way slower than 3 year stints.  Folks around the country having to move without federal guidance should be telling us exactly what we see - the USG is ill equipped to do what we think they should be able to do. The CDC has 15,000 people working for it and a budget of $11.1 billion! And yet they couldn't hack it.  Again, cautionary tale. Bureaucracies are not known for their lighting quick speed.

Just you watch - the CDC and FDA spent weeks telling universities and private labs to not test, to stop, to wait. Watch how fast this goes now that the adults (i.e., private industry) are unleashed.

 

[dogears]

We're doing better than almost every western nation right now. Let's wait til the end of the game before we call for firing the coach, eh?

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

Look at this.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Once again I have to call you out (and you're the moderator).

Trying to moderate, but admittedly my job is not that expansive.  I mainly just take out the trash (spammers) and police members following the forum rules.

Do you read what you write here? People (let alone "everyone") were "hoping" for an existential crisis? That's actually insulting and completely turning causality on its head...

I already apologized in advance for my admitted mind reading, but arguing about different future world views that haven't happened yet is not very productive.

I hope this crisis will strengthen the role role of science vs. people making up stuff in their bubble.

We can only hope that science will trump partisan politics (pun intended).

Corona is not an existential crisis for the planet,

stop press, we agree, but I just said that.

but climate change actually is.

Not a scientific fact....  The debate is not about whether the globe warms up and cools down (it always has, and lets hope it keeps on), but whether we are somehow guilty of harmful (?) warming and what actions we should take in response... This is not exactly a new discussion.

Here is something new (to me) that helps me understand public sentiment. In human cognition we will routinely substitute the answer to an easy question we know, for a difficult question we do not understand (climate change is hard). Public sentiment appears to substitute the answer they know (Yes the globe is warming? ), for the more difficult question, should we drastically cut energy output, and/or actively cool the planet (not so simple IMO).

Sorry if you find my contributions offensive. (You could always report me to me... : it has happened before).

JR 

 

[dogears]

Consider for a moment, just a few weeks ago people were impeaching President Trump under the accusations of acting like a dictator or a monarch. Now they are criticizing him for not acting like a dictator or a monarch. You can't win.

 

[Ricardus]

Consider for a moment, just a few weeks ago people were impeaching President Trump under the accusations of acting like a dictator or a monarch. Now they are criticizing him for not acting like a dictator or a monarch. You can't win.

That's a straw man and you know it.

No one is asking him to be a "dictator." They want him to be competent and act like he has a clue. He doesn't so therefore he cannot. I saw his presser the other day with the CEOs. He ran it like a comical game show.

 

[Ricardus]

So for anyone who is playing along, my co-worker just texted me and said he feels fine today. So he was sick for 3 days. I asked if he was still going to be tested and he hasn't replied yet.

If you don't know what I'm talking about read my big post from yesterday.

 

[hodad]

Consider for a moment, just a few weeks ago people were impeaching President Trump under the accusations of acting like a dictator or a monarch. Now they are criticizing him for not acting like a dictator or a monarch. You can't win.

He's not leading.  You can be a do-nothing dictator or monarch (history certainly has some fine examples.)  You can be a leader without being a dictator (and history has fine examples of that as well.)

You missed the mark completely on that one.

 

[JohnRoberts]

So for anyone who is playing along, my co-worker just texted me and said he feels fine today. So he was sick for 3 days. I asked if he was still going to be tested and he hasn't replied yet.

If you don't know what I'm talking about read my big post from yesterday.

They are ramping up testing as fast as they can pedal, so there should be more testing performed in coming weeks. Only wide testing will help us identify and isolate community spread. Testing availability is probably still limited in many areas.

More testing going on now down in Westchester county, but don't envy them.

I heard some discussions of future self-testing kits where people can swab themselves and mail in the kits for results. I don't think this is very close to being available, but sounds like a smart solution for large scale testing.

JR 

 

[Ricardus]

They are ramping up testing as fast as they can pedal, so there should be more testing performed in coming weeks. Only wide testing will help us identify and isolate community spread. Testing availability is probably still limited in many areas.

JR

So now it looks like he can't be tested because he's not sick. There's not enough tests. He'd have to lie, essentially denying someone else a test, which he isn't going to do. So I'm still on lockdown.

 

[fazer]

So I'm still on lockdown

Yes it’s going to be the norm for at least a few months.

 

[dogears]

Guys, y'all have to take partisan glasses off. I know he inspires dislike in you - that's fine. I don't care for his delivery either. I didn't vote for the guy. But be clear about what he can and can't do.

He can talk and be reassuring or set the tone
He can pressure people, and fire / appoint folks
He can work with legislators, the Fed, the CDC through subordinates

I think he probably badly underestimated the severity of this event initially. His messaging in the beginning was bad. I think it's gotten a lot better. Call this a C- from me.

I have watched people disappear from the CDC pressers etc. That's good. I watched him pressure people. That's good. I give him a B on this, but really it's hard to know what's going on behind the scenes.

I think the third point is where we really have to ignore all the politics and look at actions. I give him a B+ right now. A+ would be executing like S Korea or Singapore. C would be on par with the rest of Europe. We're in the middle.

I thought the CEO presser was one of the most surprising and best I've ever seen. The market agreed. I've never seen or heard of that type of public-private partnership before. That was no different than announcing a task force specific to testing. But instead of introducing a bunch of people from the USG, he introduced some huge players in the private sector. If those company's willingness to step up as US companies to support the US didn't inspire you I don't know what will. Those are all ultimately Americans working to help other Americans, which is exactly why it's going to be ok here. That's what we, as Americans, do.

What he can't do is what Gov. Cuomo just asked him to. The US Federal Government does not have the legal authority to issue lockdown orders, to act the way Italy and China have. That's by design. That's what I mean. He's not a monarch or ruler, the Federal government can only do what it does.

 

[dogears]

So now it looks like he can't be tested because he's not sick. There's not enough tests. He'd have to lie, essentially denying someone else a test, which he isn't going to do. So I'm still on lockdown.

For what its worth, according to both the NYT and WSJ testing screening is being determined by state and local authorities. CDC only advises and confirms tests.

And yes the testing thing is an absolute joke. I'd love to know how the freaking NBA can get 50 people tested like its nothing a time when Houston metro area was limited to 25 tests a day.

 

[JohnRoberts]

So now it looks like he can't be tested because he's not sick. There's not enough tests. He'd have to lie, essentially denying someone else a test, which he isn't going to do. So I'm still on lockdown.

Sadly that is the current state of limited testing capability, as I already said they are pedaling as fast as they can to increase test kit availability. Local NY state officials are rationing their limited quantity of test kits to get a handle on the community spread down in Westchester country.

For now the best you and you friend can do is act like he might be infected. The vast majority of young healthy people will recover. But we still need to test a lot more people to get a handle on this.

(caveat I am not a health professional, so listen to your doctors.)

JR

 

[living sounds]

The debate is not about whether the globe warms up and cools down (it always has, and lets hope it keeps on), but whether we are somehow guilty of harmful (?) warming and what actions we should take in response... This is not exactly a new discussion.

I don't like the term "guilty" here, let's stay with "cause". Releasing CO2 and several other chemicals into the atmosphere, as well as certain other actions humans have taken does in theory and in praxis cause the planet to warm. Earth history (geology) for example shows this relationship very well. There's hardly any serious doubt among the relevant experts.

It also clashes with ideology and economic interests, thus the denial. Even the principles behind the denial and the various conspiracy idologies associated with it have been studied extensively.

It's really pretty much case closed.

Sorry if you find my contributions offensive. (You could always report me to me... : it has happened before).

I'm not easily offended, I don't take things here personal and I have never reported anyone other than for posting SPAM. But sneaking in ideological narratives under the guise of "common sense" or "rationality" needs to be called out.