COVID-19

[madswitcher]

Hi Folks,

I try to stay clear of American politics and Trump bashing in particular as it pointless venting of emotional energy.  BUT, this this is beyond the pale.  It sound to me like weaponizing the current situation and ignoring the rest of the world.

Its a report in the The Times today - this is not Fox news.

"Germany has warded off an attempt by President Trump to acquire a company working on a coronavirus vaccine in the apparent hope of securing exclusive control of its supply.

Berlin and Washington had been in a financial tug-of-war over Curevac which believes it could make million of doses a month and aims to start clinical trial in the summer.

It appears to have caught Mr. Trump’s eye when he met the company’s chief executive at the White House two weeks ago.  German officials were worried that the US government were trying to lure the business away so that it could reserve the vaccine for the sole use of Americans, even though the research had been funded by European grants.

Jes Spahn, the German health minister, announced last night that the US takeover attempt was off.  If Curevac succeeded in creating a viable vaccine, he said “It will be developed for the whole world”

Regards

Mike

 

[ruffrecords]

Just need to add here for others reading that, regarding AGW, this isn't true:  it's governed by the Duhem-Quine Thesis.  Instead we talk about 'likeliness' of AGW with respect to causation, which is currently estimated to be 'extremely likely', which means there is a less than 5% chance that AGW is false (at least as it is currently formulated).

Assuming, of course that your implicit auxiliary assumptions are correct.

Sorry, just could not let that go unchallenged.

Cheers

Ian

 

[ruffrecords]

Hi fellas (and ladies?)

I encourage everyone to read this.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Good stuff, clearly written. Thanks

Cheers

ian

 

[boji]

PS: I am glad to hear that everybody has taken off their partisan glasses.. 

Concerning the neverending political posturing, infighting, shouting down of perspective,  I beg each of you, please, listen to the audiobook, or buy a hardcopy of Jonathan Haidt's "The Righteous Mind - Why Good People Are Divided By Politics and Religion"

A "landmark contribution to humanity’s understanding of itself".

https://www.amazon.com/Righteous-Mind-Divided-Politics-Religion/dp/0307455777


Edit: I mean, after all, Covid is going to give you time indoors to read/listen....

 

[Brian Roth]

I am age 65....in that older group.  I live in central Kansas where there are no local cases reported.  IIRC, there are 10 cases in the state with the one death reported about an elderly man (Kansas City area) who had heart problems.

I worry about my elderly Mom, age 90, down in Okla City.

What is more concerning are the local grocery shelves being stripped bare as everyone panics.  I inventoried my stock and am OK for a few weeks.  Mom also stocked up as well.

I hate to be a downer, but if food stocks running out keep at this pace, I can see anarchy breaking out.  Gun and ammo sales have sharply risen.

No politics on my part, so please don't turn this thread into "why it's all Trump's (or whomever) fault".  I never liked the Donald, but let's not go there.

I'm more concerned about the massive supply chain breakdown (and who cares if Apple's iPhone supply chain is broken!)

Food running out at the grocery stores is very bizarre.  Food running short, people buying guns and ammo.....not a good thing.

I'm more worried about possible anarchy.

I know this post will likely explode into who-is-to-blame yelling matches, but that misses my point.  The wall to wall news coverage seems to be fueling this and the citizens are scared.

Bri

 

[JohnRoberts]

I am age 65....in that older group.  I live in central Kansas where there are no local cases reported.  IIRC, there are 10 cases in the state with the one death reported about an elderly man (Kansas City area) who had heart problems.

I worry about my elderly Mom, age 90, down in Okla City.

What is more concerning are the local grocery shelves being stripped bare as everyone panics.  I inventoried my stock and am OK for a few weeks.  Mom also stocked up as well.

I hate to be a downer, but if food stocks running out keep at this pace, I can see anarchy breaking out.  Gun and ammo sales have sharply risen.

No politics on my part, so please don't turn this thread into "why it's all Trump's (or whomever) fault".  I never liked the Donald, but let's not go there.

I'm more concerned about the massive supply chain breakdown (and who cares if Apple's iPhone supply chain is broken!)

Food running out at the grocery stores is very bizarre.  Food running short, people buying guns and ammo.....not a good thing.

I'm more worried about possible anarchy.

I know this post will likely explode into who-is-to-blame yelling matches, but that misses my point.  The wall to wall news coverage seems to be fueling this and the citizens are scared.

Bri

Take a breath, maybe call your mom and tell her you love her...

I have seen many similar hoarding reactions to hurricanes. I never ran out of food or toilet paper.

Maybe watch less hyperbolic news.

JR

 

[PRR]

...Food running out at the grocery stores is very bizarre.  ....

From my brother:

I work in a supermarket. It has been war for the last week.
We do $1 mil/week in sales. Last week we did $1.5 mil. at $3/item, how many more items did we handle?
No wonder the warehouse is 48 hours behind on orders. It serves 150 stores. We got a Friday shipment today 4 AM, and our supply chain is way better than Costco or Walmart's.

No more than 250 persons are allowed to gather in NJ by gov't suggestion. ShopRite has had 300+ shoppers every minute since Thursday morning.
Customers all seem to need to be 24 inches away to ask about sanitizer, alcohol, TP,  flour,  chicken (we had none Saturday) and water (I think we sold 5 trailers of water this week-in winter!)
I wash hands about every 30 minutes all day.
If the shoppers get satiated, we might catch up by Friday or so. Or maybe the whole staff will catch a fever.

Today. Got up at 5:30 to go break freight out of a truck and fill up paste sauce, can tomatoes, diapers. and Lysol spray.
I come home and lie down for an hour each day, then walk doggy.
Some fun.

I have seen many similar hoarding reactions to hurricanes. I never ran out of food or toilet paper.

Hurricanes blow-over in a week. Tomorrow is the end of the "first week" here, we expected another week, and now they are talking 4 weeks, and history suggests months. We can easily work my brother to collapse, and starve, poopy-assed.

 

[Whoops]

I have seen many similar hoarding reactions to hurricanes. I never ran out of food or toilet paper.

Hurricanes blow-over in a week. Tomorrow is the end of the "first week" here, we expected another week, and now they are talking 4 weeks, and history suggests months. We can easily work my brother to collapse, and starve, poopy-assed.

I really hope no one around here thinks this situation has any resemblance to dealing with a passing Hurricane.

Off course there's a big risk there of food supply shortage.
Logistics companies with infected employees, transport companies with no drivers, producers with no raw materials, etc.

The only way of preventing it, is to control the spread, and keep controlling it,  it will take months.
Better accept reality and be rational and act Earlier, so you can still have food and supplies later on.

 

[JohnRoberts]

No, it is not a hurricane, but the irrational fear of scarcity seems very similar...

I suspect this is yet another trait reinforced by evolution (to hoard if facing scarcity)

Let's not reinforce the hysteria.

JR

 

[Brian Roth]

Take a breath, maybe call your mom and tell her you love her...


JR

Mom and I have a weekly chat every Sunday evening and several chats each week.  I love her and nowadays think about living 250 miles away.

But she made it through the Great Depression and WW2,  and much later stuff....including me    LOL

Yesterday, Mom told me the grocery stores in OKC (metro area well over a million) were being stripped bare.

Seems like a stampede.  BUT...Mom assured me she had plenty of toilet paper stockpiled!

sheesh

 

[rock soderstrom]

But she made it through the Great Depression and WW2,  and much later stuff....including me    LOL

;D

 

[Tubetec]

Ive heard of a few people stateside who now feel the need to carry guns on shopping trips .
How people react under stress might end up doing a lot more damage than the virus itself if we saw a breakdown in law and order .
I spoke to people in a few states that are under curfew at night time and they were really angry about it , I'm not sure what good a curfew has in this situation, all  its doing is fueling the fear and taking away peoples rights for no good reason . Some had a feeling the country will end up under marshall law and a return to traditional skills like hunting shooting and fishing would be needed to put food on the table .

By the way, happy St Patricks day to anyone with an Irish connection  or even just a grá for the Emerald isle .
Theres no pub open in the 26 counties today ,50,000 bar/catering  staff have been made unemployed over night. People in the six counties of northern Ireland still have their pubs open ,there should be a unified response on an all Ireland basis as a virus knows no borders, but they get there orders from Whitehall  .

The other signifigant thing emerging  is it looks like Ibuprofen might make the symptoms worse, several places are advising people not to use it against corona now .

 

[Icantthinkofaname]

My work is closed due to all casinos in Ontario being ordered to shut down. But on the bright side I've got some time to try DIY projects.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Ive heard of a few people stateside who now feel the need to carry guns on shopping trips .

I don't, but I did manage to get one shot at squirrel last week with my pellet rifle (missed).

How people react under stress might end up doing a lot more damage than the virus itself if we saw a breakdown in law and order .

I have heard reports about people offering to help and share. Some high profile (code for highly paid) sports figures have made contributions to help low level sports venue employees now out of work. Hoarding is selfish behavior, throwing neighbors who may actually need the artificially scarce supplies under the bus. 

I recall during possible gasoline shortages, people filled up their cars even when they didn't need gas, creating the shortage people worried about.

I spoke to people in a few states that are under curfew at night time and they were really angry about it , I'm not sure what good a curfew has in this situation, all  its doing is fueling the fear and taking away peoples rights for no good reason .

It is unclear what purpose that curfew serves, and the ones I heard about have exceptions for practical travel.

Some had a feeling the country will end up under marshall law and a return to traditional skills like hunting shooting and fishing would be needed to put food on the table .

Seriously... Who are these "some", survivalists?  These days we see lots of rumors attempting to destabilize/disturb the calm.  Repeating unverified rumors just helps spread misinformation. That rumor was enough of a concern that the administration responded debunking it.

By the way, happy St Patricks day to anyone with an Irish connection  or even just a grá for the Emerald isle .

Erin go braugh....  Part irish mutt with some brit and german(dutch), but I can drink beer in many languages.

NY (Gov Cuomo) cancelled the St Patrick's day parade this year which dates back to 1762.

Theres no pub open in the 26 counties today ,50,000 bar/catering  staff have been made unemployed over night. People in the six counties of northern Ireland still have their pubs open ,there should be a unified response on an all Ireland basis as a virus knows no borders, but they get there orders from Whitehall  .

many bars, restaurants, and night clubs closed at least briefly for now, to reduce community spread of virus.

The other signifigant thing emerging  is it looks like Ibuprofen might make the symptoms worse, several places are advising people not to use it against corona now .

That sounds like fake news but was actual advice from french health officials (not embraced by all experts). Reportedly ibuprofen slightly reduces the immune response**** so perhaps not the best choice for dealing with a novel coronavirus. Acetaminophen reportedly is more effective for self medicating fevers.

JR

**** Inflammation is part of our body's immune response so all NSAIDs arguably reduce immune response. For years I have chronically taken naproxen daily to manage oestoarthritis in one knee...  I may need to skip hitting the clubs this weekend.  :

 

[dogears]

https://youtu.be/EuWo5lmWuZI

Regarding NSAIDs etc.

 

[JohnRoberts]

https://youtu.be/EuWo5lmWuZI

Regarding NSAIDs etc.

Thanks..

Yup.  Using anti-pyretic (fever reducers) is classic treating the symptom rather than the disease. While very high fevers (107'F?) can cause damage and require mitigation (ice bath, cold shower, etc).

I have just stayed in bed before when sick and tried to "sweat out" an infection with elevated body temp. Anecdotally it helped more often than not, but not a scientific result by any stretch. 

NSAIDs are a "sore" point for me, because I have been taking them chronically for years, against label advice.  I have had multiple discussions with my primary care doctor, and naproxen (NSAID) was offered as the lesser evil (to unmanaged osteoarthritis).

Of course I am not a health professional so ask your personal doctor. I expect an increase in tele-doctoring to avoid exposure to disease laden waiting rooms. 

JR

PS; According to WHO garlic does not kill covid-19.... bummer

 

[Ricardus]

PS; According to WHO garlic does not kill covid-19.... bummer

It does. You just have to breathe on it and ignite your breath.

 

[dogears]

A contact of mine through my university alumni network:

I work for a company making the test kits. I have been told we have 1.5m tests made and started shipping out to US labs this week. We are ramping up to make 2M a week for the rest of March and scaling to 5M per week in April as we bring on additional staff.

Additionally, another company had their test approved this week, so they will be ramping up production and supply as well.

Availability of testing should see a big jump this week and going forward. I know we have been hearing that for the past week and a half from the Govt, but shipping tests is significant progress.

 

[Matador]

Assuming, of course that your implicit auxiliary assumptions are correct.

Sorry, just could not let that go unchallenged.

Except regarding predictive modeling (which is what AGW is largely based on), we don't have 'implicit auxiliary assumptions', rather they are all very explicit...but whatever, we've already been around this merry-go-round in other threads no need to do it again here.

Stores around here are largely stripped, we got lucky because my wife likes to buy stuff like paper towels and TP yearly, so we had just restocked back in December.  We have enough canned goods between our house and what we keep in our RV to last over a month if need be...but we are probably very lucky.

 

[Ricardus]

For those following along, my co-worker had the flu, not Covid-19, so I am out of self quarantine.