COVID-19

[JohnRoberts]

And yes the testing thing is an absolute joke. I'd love to know how the freaking NBA can get 50 people tested like its nothing a time when Houston metro area was limited to 25 tests a day.

I believe we all know the answer to that...  8)

JR

 

[midwayfair]

Dow erased Friday, and is now below its January 2017 level. Markets gon' market.  I wonder if they tripped the second circuit.

We're doing better than almost every western nation right now. Let's wait til the end of the game before we call for firing the coach, eh?

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

Look at this.

What exactly are you looking at in your link that's leading you to use the word "better"?

Images from your link:

U.S. is worse than France and Italy (the only western European nations on the chart).

Worse than Italy. (ditto)

Basically indistinguishable from other curves.

Almost all European nations except Switzerland are on curve with Italy; Italy is actually at the top of the curve in most of them.

At best the U.S. is on par with most European countries. We will probably stay that way -- helped along especially by the fact that the U.S. has a lot of rural pop -- but Italy had more testing at this point in their progression.

--------

Anyway ...

I'm currently trying to figure out how much I can afford to support my friends who can't work from home like me, especially while I'm on self-imposed quarantine (wife has a stuffy nose -- almost certainly allergies, but why take the chance? She works at a hospital). Like, I did my voice lesson yesterday by Skype. I have an artist friend who does yard work on the side, I can probably pay him to remove some ivy or something. I bought a cookbook from a friend who runs an open mic I like to go to. But my friend who probably actually contracted it and programs CNC machines, I have no idea what to do for him.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I don't like the term "guilty" here, let's stay with "cause". Releasing CO2 and several other chemicals into the atmosphere, as well as certain other actions humans have taken does in theory and in praxis cause the planet to warm. Earth history (geology) for example shows this relationship very well.

old discussion, correlation does not prove causation... what if the warming causes increased CO2?

There's hardly any serious doubt among the relevant experts.

Science is not decided by majority of opinions, it's about thesis and proof.  One conflicting result is enough to break the thesis.

It also clashes with ideology and economic interests, thus the denial.

mind reading again?

Even the principles behind the denial and the various conspiracy idologies associated with it have been studied extensively.

?

It's really pretty much case closed.

in some echo chambers... I already explained why so many make the lazy leap to conflate warming with some existential calamity.

If there really was a compelling need to cool the planet, we could do so, but I repeat my long standing caution to not tweak global climate casually.

I'm not easily offended, I don't take things here personal and I have never reported anyone other than for posting SPAM. But sneaking in ideological narratives under the guise of "common sense" or "rationality" needs to be called out.

Ideological political narratives have always been attractive because they "make sense" out of a reality that is highly complex. But that is part of the problem; reality is too complex to be adequately explained by a simple narrative. Political narratives, however, remain an attractive alternative, especially for young people, because the ambiguity of a complex world is not as emotionally...

http://www.lifeissues.net/writers/mcm/mcm_263ideologicalnarratives.html

I am NOT sneaking in politics but I suspect your common sense and mine, appear like political ideology to each other.

This is right out of the rules for radicals playbook to put me on the defensive and distracted... it appears to be working. 

JR

 

[dogears]

Those are infection rates. Days behind is good, not bad.

Meaning, in x days you'll be at the same infections per capita.

Implementing strict controls sooner means way way fewer final infections.

One doubling reduces the final cumulative total by 40%! So as things stand if we all take the same actions, globally, and they have the same effect, take the "days behind" and divide it by roughly 6 days. That's the number of doublings you "save".

 

[dogears]

Italy's daily new infections dropped today. 4ish days after implementing strict social distancing, same as Wuhan, same as the incubation period of the virus.

Hope that holds, but that's great news. 

 

[hodad]

Guys, y'all have to take partisan glasses off.

Nothing personal to you, but when I hear conservatives tell Dems to take partisan glasses off, I want to punch them.  I'm waiting for conservatives to actually practice what they like to preach to the other guys.  Have you looked at the conservative response to coronavirus (not singling you out but talking about the Fox News/talk radio crowd)?  Talk about disconnected from reality.  Dems may not be perfect in the way they view this thing, but seriously--worry about how conservatives view this situation before you go telling the nonconservatives how they need to be nicer to Trump. 

Trump improved ever so slightly in the past week, but that's not enough.  And it's way overdue. 

If you guys could take your own partisan glasses off and think about how Obama or Bill Clinton would have handled this situation, I think you'd realize just how far from acceptable Trump's performance has been.  And I say that as not the hugest fan of either of those 2.

 

[dmp]

Trump called Sunday a day of prayer, and then launched into political attacks in the afternoon.
He's making personal attacks all morning and then talks about unity.
What kind of leader can he be when he lies and insults so frequently?  He's not uniting anybody, as much as decent people want to work together.

Reportedly he tried to buy a German scientific company make a treatment "but only for the USA".  This will only divide people & countries more, increasing the risk.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-tried-to-pay-germans-scientists-for-coronavirus-cure-2020-3

 

[JohnRoberts]

Italy's daily new infections dropped today. 4ish days after implementing strict social distancing, same as Wuhan, same as the incubation period of the virus.

Hope that holds, but that's great news.

+1

Iran is looking rough.  EU is starting to clamp down on travel.

JR

PS: I am glad to hear that everybody has taken off their partisan glasses..  :

 

[hodad]

PS: I am glad to hear that everybody has taken off their partisan glasses..  :

I'm glad you were first in line to do so. ;D ;D ;D

 

[kambo]

PS: I am glad to hear that everybody has taken off their partisan glasses..  :

in ur dream  ;D
never seen so divided nation in my life as US.
either u r democrat, or republican, u cant be anything else...
i think both sides are selfish....

 

[dogears]

Nothing personal to you, but when I hear conservatives tell Dems to take partisan glasses off, I want to punch them.  I'm waiting for conservatives to actually practice what they like to preach to the other guys.  Have you looked at the conservative response to coronavirus (not singling you out but talking about the Fox News/talk radio crowd)?  Talk about disconnected from reality.  Dems may not be perfect in the way they view this thing, but seriously--worry about how conservatives view this situation before you go telling the nonconservatives how they need to be nicer to Trump. 

Trump improved ever so slightly in the past week, but that's not enough.  And it's way overdue. 

If you guys could take your own partisan glasses off and think about how Obama or Bill Clinton would have handled this situation, I think you'd realize just how far from acceptable Trump's performance has been.  And I say that as not the hugest fan of either of those 2.

Strange, I don't really ever want to punch anyone in the face over their political views. I'm not a republican.

I'm pretty sure I've said clearly that I think his early comments were irresponsible. That goes double for Rush and Hannity who continued to spew nonsense. But just like I tell my kids - "but he did it first" doesn't excuse the behavior. The vitriol and gotchas as so over-the-top silly about this.

"Verily isn't Google"
"CEOs like a comical game show"

... I mean really guys?  I don't really care about being nice to President Trump, he's a big boy, he can more than take care of himself. The rational thing to do is not to let other's irrationality dictate your response.

Honestly, I think the president has way less power in this situation than people imagine. He's basically a cheerleader, which is why I am so critical of President Trump's early statements. They set the wrong tone. But in what he actually can do, I think he's done well. I suspect that the rhetoric would have been better with President Obama, and I think it's likely the bureaucratic response by the CDC and FDA would have been about the same. It was likely the exact same people following the exact same protocols. And I don't think President Obama would have pulled the e-brake to get the private corporations involved, which I think was a fantastic move.

You can disagree - and disagreement isn't partisanship. Partisanship is saying he's "do-nothing" (he's not) or that he doesn't have a clue, or that his pressers are comical game shows, buying hook line and sinker media spin that he said the virus was a hoax (he didn't) or that the CDC funding was cut (it wasn't).  That's not factual or productive.

A more productive thing would be to say - here's what I think he should be doing. Here's what I think he should have done sooner. I've seen none of that. I think he's doing well, and we're likely ahead of the response of European nations. Certainly ahead of Italy, Iran, Spain, and likely France.

Germany appears to be crushing it right now - go Germany! - along with S Korea, Japan, and Singapore. Let's hope the rest of the world can get off the dime before people die for no reason.

 

[kambo]

Nothing personal to you, but when I hear conservatives tell Dems to take partisan glasses off, I want to punch them. 

woooa , talk of a civilized person!

If you guys could take your own partisan glasses off and think about how Obama or Bill Clinton would have handled this situation,

Bill would have his B.J. under the  desk, Obama couldnt even sorted out the Flint water,
Bush probably would deploy more troops to Red Sea and Pacific to invade more!

 

[dogears]

I think all Americans of any political stripe should listen when the POTUS speaks.

He's talking to us, not just to democrats or republicans, and we have the ability to listen to what he says directly without filtering through media outlets. It starts at the 9 min mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ka-9b3ih7D4

I thought today was the best he's been - and that includes saying what needs to be said by the POTUS, and letting experts say what needs to be said by them.

 

[ruffrecords]

The British government is taking a dangerously different tack to countries who, for now, have got their outbreaks under control,

You seriously believe the rest of Europe has this outbreak under control????

Cheers

ian

 

[kambo]

You seriously believe the rest of Europe has this outbreak under control????

Cheers

ian

didnt you get the memo,
its not about having it under control,
its about having the peak number of patients low so you can treat them,
and not end up in a position who the doctors gonna treat, and let other to die !

 

[hodad]

Strange, I don't really ever want to punch anyone in the face over their political views. I'm not a republican.
"Verily isn't Google"
But the website also wasn't what Trump described.  It's something Alphabet is working on specifically for the Bay Area, with thoughts to possibly expand it at some point.  It's not just the Google/Verily thing, it's that he completely oversold and misdescribed it.
"CEOs like a comical game show"

And yet, it was pretty ridiculous.  As always with things involving Trump, there's a lot of Trump congratulating himself, and a lot of other people talking about what a great job Trump has been doing.  It may not quite have been a comical game show, but there was certainly a lot of overselling of progress made and a lot of talk about how wonderful everybody was.  And then there was the other one where Trump spent a couple minutes bragging about how the stock market shot up during his big dog and pony show.  (Of course, all that & more disappeared today.) 

Honestly, I think the president has way less power in this situation than people imagine. He's basically a cheerleader.

He sets the agenda and the tone.  He hires the cabinet secretaries and undersecretaries.  Obama was and is an extremely bright man, quick to grasp a situation, willing to hear points of view that might contradict his own.  I don't think he would have let the testing issues fester as long as Trump did.  It was obvious that things needed to be fixed faster--whether that was switching to the WHO test or pushing for a quicker fix--and it just took too long to get that in motion.  And I firmly believe Obama or Bill Clinton would have done a better job of messaging and setting up guidelines for state and local govts as well as businesses to follow. 

And yes, I get that you're conservative but not necessarily Republican.  It actually shows in your comments.   Regardless, I have deeper concerns about Republican denialism and conspiracy theories than I do with Dems not giving Trump enough credit.  Being ticked off with Trump and wanting him to do more is not nearly as dangerous as those on the other side who think it's a giant Dem hoax.

 

[cyrano]

Man, I'll have a nightmare imagining Trump as a cheerleader 

A cure from Australia:

https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/cure-found-for-coronavirus-in-australia/3973564/

 

[dogears]

You know,  part of the Pres. Trump rah rah is actually very, very familiar to me. It's very corporate. I work directly for a guy who manages 1500 employees and ~$500m revenue, and my job has me interacting with his boss ($1.2Bn) and his boss' boss (CEO, $3.5Bn). They aren't "like" Trump, but they are very much like Trump, if that makes any sense? Constantly positive, unrelenting pressure, volatile, type-A, aggressive, difficult to manage up, very determined, difficult to disagree with.

So when you say, oh this is fawning or whatever, to me this extremely familiar behavior in the big-shot corporate world.

Pres. Trump - like my boss - never introduces someone who is working for him to someone without a compliment.  You note they compliment him, but not that he is complementary of them.

Just my observation.

 

[Matador]

Science is not decided by majority of opinions, it's about thesis and proof.  One conflicting result is enough to break the thesis.

Just need to add here for others reading that, regarding AGW, this isn't true:  it's governed by the Duhem-Quine Thesis.  Instead we talk about 'likeliness' of AGW with respect to causation, which is currently estimated to be 'extremely likely', which means there is a less than 5% chance that AGW is false (at least as it is currently formulated).

 

[dogears]

Hi fellas (and ladies?)

I encourage everyone to read this.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

At least the introduction. Read it, and understand a couple of things.

1. This is shaping up to be the biggest deal since the 1918 flu pandemic.
2. Thank God we have people in office around the globe willing to make the right - TOUGH - decision to wreck economies to save lives. I do not envy them. (See quote from Nate Silver below)
3.  This isn't going away in a week or two. This likely will go on and off for up to a year
4. The 1 mo race for test kits doesn't look like it is going to matter. We're going to be doing intermittent  shutdowns (I guess) based on widespread testing.
5. Holy f-ing s--- this is crazy
6. The peak of that curve is ridiculous
7. We need a vaccine. Now.
8.  ???
9. It's all gonna be ok.

The US's willingness to engage in mass shutdowns isn't something that could have been taken for granted, for instance.