covid politics

[JohnRoberts]

Media routinely overstates risk to scare viewers into watching.

Community spread (and testing) is expected to increase with reopening.

Young adults/kids who think they will live forever have ignored social distancing and mask use.

I repeat look at deaths not infections that will rise with the increased testing.

If the hyperbolic "sky is falling" news scares some young pukes into wearing masks and social distancing, it's not all bad.

JR

PS: Reportedly New Orleans turned around their bad trends by focussing on the higher at risk older aged community often in rest homes. Other regions have had success with similar strategy (protect the most at risk).

 

[crazydoc]

I repeat look at deaths not infections that will rise with the increased testing.

And increased infections will rise with increased disease.

Hopefully the Decadron treatment and other improvements in medical knowledge will mitigate the death rate somewhat, so deaths won't increase at the same relative rate as they have in the past.

If anyone thinks this is all a result of hyperbolic media coverage, go look at some data:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-positive-rate-bar
https://ourworldindata.org/epi-curve-covid-19

 

[crazydoc]

My fellow Americans:
Before holding a vote to mandate the wearing of masks in public places to stop the spread of coronavirus, Palm Beach County commissioners were harangued by residents who accused them of obeying the devil, imposing a communist dictatorship and dishonouring the American flag.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-53174415/they-want-to-throw-god-s-wonderful-breathing-system-out

 

[john12ax7]

I am open to hear better solutions.

Ways to fix the political system is probably another thread.  But it's about  .02% of the population who contributes most of the political donations.  So the candidates and their subsequent actions are very far removed from the  people they are supposed to represent.

 

[L´Andratté]

Media routinely overstates risk to scare viewers into watching.

Community spread (and testing) is expected to increase with reopening.

Young adults/kids who think they will live forever have ignored social distancing and mask use.

I repeat look at deaths not infections that will rise with the increased testing.

If the hyperbolic "sky is falling" news scares some young pukes into wearing masks and social distancing, it's not all bad.

Reminds me of Peter and the wolf story. The media lied so often, noone believes them now, although they
mighty speak the truth (on covid).
Although, mentioning hyperbolic, I usually think of something else...
"Greatest [insert random content] ever!!!"

Ways to fix the political system is probably another thread.  But it's about  .02% of the population who contributes most of the political donations.  So the candidates and their subsequent actions are very far removed from the  people they are supposed to represent.

Best democracy money can buy...
Maybe world government is already here
Nobody noticed, because everybody was looking the wrong way- at national governments :

 

[JohnRoberts]

Reminds me of Peter and the wolf story. The media lied so often, noone believes them now, although they
mighty speak the truth (on covid).

by accident?  ;D

Although, mentioning hyperbolic, I usually think of something else...
"Greatest [insert random content] ever!!!"

yup, the blowhard in chief...  ;D

Best democracy money can buy...
Maybe world government is already here

sadly there has been a major effort in the shadows to get one stood up for years (decades?). The primary stopper is lack of robust no strings funding. They have floated the concept of an international transaction tax, that could generate massive funds taking a cut from international trade volume. 

Nobody noticed, because everybody was looking the wrong way- at national governments :

Some are still paying attention but sadly mass market human attention span is easily distracted by the existential threat du jour. It appears that COVID has eclipsed climate change for the moment.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

Anyone know if telemedicine is being counted as a hospitalization? 

https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-telemedicine-health-care-provider-fact-sheet

A hospitalization needs a formal (physical and administrative) admission to a hospital as an inpatient, and not just being in the hospital. Some patients come into the hospital and are put on a "hold" in a bed in a hospital room for up to 72 hours but are NOT admitted to the hospital and cannot get Medicare (and probably other insurance) benefits for hospitalized patients, especially afterwards for rehab and therapies.

But to answer the question, physicians can use telemedicine to evaluate and follow up hospitalized pateients, but the patient has to be physically admitted to and in the hospital. So no, telemedicine has nothing to do with counting the hospitalization beans.

 

[crazydoc]

The more diagnoses a hospitalized patient has, the more the hospital gets paid. So I'd imagine if a patient hospitalized for a particular condition is also found to be positive for covid, it's added to his list of diagnoses and probably counted as a covid patient. So there are probably some hospitalizations in the covid count where the disease is not the reason for a hospital stay admisssion, and may not even be contributing to his morbidity. But if I were a patient hospitalized for, say, congestive heart failure, I'd rather not have covid too, which most likely would be a significant contributor to my morbidity or mortality.

Again, there are strict criteria for classification as a hospital admission, and neither telemedicine nor an ER visit has any bearing on it. But I'm sure there are shenanigans to manipulate data for maximum remuneration, which may affect the counts..

 

[cyrano]

I've said it before, don't even try to compare numbers. It's impossible.

It's funny. I can remember Trump complaining about China manipulating numbers. Nobody doubts that's happened. And now the Trumpistas are doing the exact same thing.

It will be at the very least five years before we know anything solid about this virus. Unknown quantities seem hard to accept for a lot of people, so media try hard to provide facts. Only these facts aren't solid at all, yet.

- Prolonged immunity is not certain. It might be for the rest of your life, or it could be six months.

- Testing vaccines will take at least a year. What's being done now, is estimating corner-cutting in testing these. One has to hope for the best.

- It's clear that relaxing and doing nothing isn't the best strategy in the short term. We don't know about medium term, but how about long-term?

- We still can't tell all the ways the virus makes people sick, as it attacks the immune system, opening things for all kinds of other microbes. A few statistic indicators exist already, but as the numbers of infections go down, the signal is getting drowned in noise. Noise from politicians, mostly.

The Trumps and Bolsonaro's aren't doing the world a favour. On the contrary.

 

[crazydoc]

but as the numbers of infections go down, the signal is getting drowned in noise.

I don't know where you're getting that. The mortality rate is improving (maybe it's killed off a larger percentage of the vulnerable  ) , but the number of infections continues to increase.

 

[cyrano]

I don't know where you're getting that. The mortality rate is improving (maybe it's killed off a larger percentage of the vulnerable  ) , but the number of infections continues to increase.

Mortality rate is based on the numbers of people dying from COVID induced disease.

Major problem #1: we don't know all the forms of disease induced by COVID. What about the Kawasaki-like infection in kids? That's the fourth COVID-related disease I've noticed. How many more are there? And how many are counted as COVID deaths?

Major problem #2: all sorts of manipulations of the numbers. Of course, Trump and Bolsonaro are leading, but even simple mistakes (Italy and NY spring to mind) are enough to statistically obscure a lot. Most importantly the trend (up or down).

It's a slow virus. In a year or so we'll be able to look back and estimate the error. 5%? or 50%?

 

[crazydoc]

Mortality rate is based on the numbers of people dying from COVID induced disease.

So what is covid induced disease? If someone is admitted to the hospital with CHF, decompensates and is transferred to the ICU, has to be intubated and ventilated due to his heart failure, a covid test on admission turns out to be positive, and the patient eventually dies, (may not have died without covid), is that a covid death? Things many times aren't black and white.

It's a slow virus. In a year or so we'll be able to look back and estimate the error. 5%? or 50%?

It's not a slow virus, at least in its major manifestations - it replicates quickly, That Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in kids seems to be slower,  likely to be due to the body's inflammatory response rather than slow viral replication, but most covid disease starts within a few days of infection.

 

[JohnRoberts]

People are starting to review non-covid deaths for trend outliers. They discovered extra Alzheimer deaths that were above trend compared to previous years... they were expecting something like 85k deaths and had 100k for 3 month period this year. This does not mean that COVID literally killed all these elders, but already fragile while suffering from dementia, it doesn't take much to tilt the balance maintaining survival.

I suspect there are other un/mis-reported deaths to parse out, but mostly in already at-risk populations (obese, diabetic, heart disease, etc).

JR

 

[cyrano]

So what is covid induced disease? If someone is admitted to the hospital with CHF, decompensates and is transferred to the ICU, has to be intubated and ventilated due to his heart failure, a covid test on admission turns out to be positive, and the patient eventually dies, (may not have died without covid), is that a covid death? Things many times aren't black and white.
It's not a slow virus, at least in its major manifestations - it replicates quickly, That Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in kids seems to be slower,  likely to be due to the body's inflammatory response rather than slow viral replication, but most covid disease starts within a few days of infection.

In the UK, a while ago, 42 kids had Inflammatory Syndrome. 38 of those tested positive for COVID. In Holland, a comparable number of patients had no positive test results for COVID. In both groups two kids died.

So, what are we looking at?

A flu virus is fast and simple. The results from this one are slow and complicated.

The testing of sewage seems to indicate that the virus was already everywhere before anyone took notice.  I also have the idea that incubation time could be much longer.

 

[hodad]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc-says-us-has-way-too-much-virus-to-control-pandemic-as-cases-surge-across-country.html

This is frightening.  This is infuriating.  This should never have happened in this country.  I do not believe this would have happened if pretty much any other candidate in the 2016 field had been elected president--R or D.  Let's ignore his stubborness, his obstinacy, his short attention span and focus on what a horrible gambler he is. 

A friend of mine spent several years making her living as a poker player, & we spent a good bit of time discussing the game.  One of the biggest takeaways I had is that you don't bet on hunches or emotions, or what you want to happen--you bet on the math.  You may win, you may lose, but in the long run playing the odds, playing table position, etc. is how you win. 

Trump has consistently made choices in the COVID disaster not based on science but based on his "hunches" (COVID is like the flu, it will go away in hot weather, HCQ is a wonder drug, etc.) as well as desired outcome (he wanted the country to reopen, so it  was okay to reopen--even though it wasn't.)  Throw in his ignoring science (about mask wearing) because he didn't want his makeup to rub off on his mask (or some other vanity-related reason), and you get one of the hugest failures of leadership in this country's history. 

I'm not saying this as pro-Dem or anti- Repub--I'm simply anti-Trump here.  Jeb Bush would have been an order of magnitude better in this crisis than Trump.  Probably even Rubio or Cruz would have done a better job than Trump has.  The current push by certain Republicans to override Trump's anti-mask message shows how desperate even they are to do something to make things better.  Trump's idiotic policies are killing Americans, playing havoc with our economy, weakening the country's position on the global stage, making our country an object of pity and/or ridicule in other countries. 

It didn't have to be this way.

 

[crazydoc]

It didn't have to be this way.

Like I said:

Well, it looks like the pandemic is out of control (just my uninformed opinion.) The stupidity and lack of self control of people (all the way to the top), and politicizing the mask/mitigation measures seem to be the main factors. Hop on for the ride, the sh!tstorm special is leaving the station.

It's our own fault: "The gov'mint cain't tell me what to do - I'm a 'Murican!" If enough folks climb out of that basket of deplorables, maybe we can get rid of at least one plague.

 

[crazydoc]

A flu virus is fast and simple.

No.
Severe influenza infection represents a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality. Although influenza is primarily considered a viral infection that results in pathology limited to the respiratory system, clinical reports suggest that influenza infection is frequently associated with a number of clinical syndromes that involve organ systems outside the respiratory tract. A comprehensive MEDLINE literature review of articles pertaining to extra‐pulmonary complications of influenza infection, using organ‐specific search terms, yielded 218 articles including case reports, epidemiologic investigations, and autopsy studies that were reviewed to determine the clinical involvement of other organs. The most frequently described clinical entities were viral myocarditis and viral encephalitis. Recognition of these extra‐pulmonary complications is critical to determining the true burden of influenza infection and initiating organ‐specific supportive care.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5596521/

The testing of sewage seems to indicate that the virus was already everywhere before anyone took notice.  I also have the idea that incubation time could be much longer.

Where do you get those ideas?

 

[L´Andratté]

US buys up world supply of remdesivir...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug
If true, the rest of the world will love US for it. :-X

More remdesivir cannot be produced, because that would infringe on patent law.
And what in this world could be more urgent than adhereing to patent law?

 

[pucho812]

here is what is going on lately in California,  Our governor spent a billion dollars on n95 masks. We never received the masks. The Chinese automaker who was going to make and supply them couldn't do it. they returned 1/4 of the billion dollars and the rest  has whereabouts that are unknown. I want my money back.  I am not sure if I mentioned that last time or if anyone really cares.  but worth mentioning.
We opened things recently. Restaurants at limited capacity,  Museums were open,  bars were allowed to be back in swing. Things were fine for a few weeks. During the same weeks we had massive amounts of crowds gathering both at bars and at protests. Both groups of people at times were far from social distancing and far from wearing masks. I saw the protests first hands when they walked by the studio, the majority were less then 6 feet apart, and most were not wearing any masks. The rioters were the same, no mask, no social distancing.  The governor this past Sunday,  suggested 14 counties in California need to curb the open bars and such. Of the 14, 6 had to mandatory shut it down because the bars caused a spike in numbers. L.A. county where I live is one of those places.  Now it went further down to a county wide shut down of all beaches, bike paths, trails, and everywhere else people will go for the July 4th weekend. The county cites the governors concerns. Our Mayor of l.a. further  cracked down and said no  public fireworks displays, along side the rest. What every single decision maker in California, did not do, is  put any blame on the protests going on.  That somehow you cannot get covid from going to a protest.  But you can sure get it from going to the pub or beach. As usual I find this to be such a joke.  Covid is serious, at least they could be honest and say, you might have passed it along when you were protesting, rioting and or looting. That is fair to say. It could have happened no more or less than it could have happened at the local pub you may have gone to.

What  really gets me is how they make that if you do action A like go to a pub, you can get covid, but if you do action B like  go shopping, you can't get covid. If you go to the beach and lie down you can get covid, but if you go to the beach and exercise, you can't get covid.  You can go fish at the beach and not get covid but only if you stand up and not sit down. They have no real clue out here, the just want to control every little aspect of our lives. I used to say I didn't vote for them, but even that doesn't bring joy any more.

So I propose, the following. According to the decisions makers out here, you cannot catch covid at Home Depot and target. So lets turn Home Depot and target into voting places, that way we can all go vote come November. We should also turn a section of Home Depot into a pub so you can go get your drinks without worry of covid.

For me I am pretty homebody when I am not at the studio. It's fairly easy for me to avoid the pub and such. But I do like to get my fishing on and be out in nature which I am now not allowed to do because I may catch covid from good knows what\ all from being on a path with others who are farther than 6 ft apart. 

 

[crazydoc]

You'd think it would be easy enough (and maybe the contact tracers are doing this) to ask each new case "Were you at a protest?", "Were you at a bar or club?", "Were you at a big box store?", "Were you at the beach?" in the last two weeks. Then publish the data so we can all see what might be driving this surge.
But apparently contact tracing is FUBAR, like everything else associated with covid.