covid politics

[JohnRoberts]

It appears the headline writers are still going for maximum scare.

Florida reported a record 15,299 new cases of COVID19 in 24 hours... hidden down in the middle of the article was only 45 new deaths. That death number seems lower than recent trend.

Of course, everybody repeats the headline test numbers as justification for lockdowns.

Coincidentally NY reported first day with zero COVID deaths to far less fanfare.

JR

 

[living sounds]

It appears the headline writers are still going for maximum scare.

Florida reported a record 15,299 new cases of COVID19 in 24 hours... hidden down in the middle of the article was only 45 new deaths. That death number seems lower than recent trend.

Of course, everybody repeats the headline test numbers as justification for lockdowns.

Coincidentally NY reported first day with zero COVID deaths to far less fanfare.

JR

Your argument is comparable to the guy bringing a snowball inside, touting the cold winter and on those grounds dismissing the reality of climate change.

A rise in deaths is likely to occur as a consequence of a rise in cases with some delay. Averaged over a few days the death count in Florida is still at an all-time high:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

Cherrypicking the data is not going to help...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Your argument is comparable to the guy bringing a snowball inside, touting the cold winter and on those grounds dismissing the reality of climate change.

you don't even make sense, but keep trying.

A rise in deaths is likely to occur as a consequence of a rise in cases with some delay. Averaged over a few days the death count in Florida is still at an all-time high:

not averaged over the last two day, but if we ASSume the 45 death number is an outlier, averaged over a week it is a high week.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

Cherrypicking the data is not going to help...

Cherrypicking the data is exactly what the headline writers did to maximize scare factor ... I pulled that data from the same article with a headline arm waving over the new cases number.

Your data confirms what I said the 45 daily death figure is well below average/trend or however else you want to crunch it.

From your data you can see that the new deaths data did not increase as sharply as new cases data, even accounting for lag (new deaths generally lag new cases ASSuming they are living when diagnosed.). 

There does not appear to be a 1:1 rate of change correlation with new case diagnosis and new deaths (deaths are rising more slowly).

I am not a medical expert so I am far less certain about drawing hard conclusions about raw data, but I trust the headline writers judgement even less. 

JR

 

[hodad]

you don't even make sense, but keep trying. not averaged over the last two day, but if we ASSume the 45 death number is an outlier, averaged over a week it is a high week. Cherrypicking the data is exactly what the headline writers did to maximize scare factor ...

And cherrypicking is exactly what you did to try to minimize scare factor.  Congratulations, John!!!  You're one of them now. 

Seriously;
1.  Deaths, as stated above, are a lagging indicator. It often is 4 weeks from diagnosis to death. 

2.  There's more and more evidence of long term ill effects from the disease, even in mild cases, and even in the young.  It's pretty fair to assume that a rise in cases will be accompanied by a rise in long-term health issues (not death, but not a good thing by any measure.)

3.  Look at hospitalizations.  They're way up.  Even if people are less likely to die from COVID now (and there does seem to be evidence that treatment is improving, and there might be other factors in a lower death rate as well), lots of folks are going to the hospital.  This takes a massive toll on healthcare workers and the healthcare system in general. 

These are just three reasons your disingenuous ballyhooing of lower death rates amid soaring case rates is both misguided  and dangerous. 

PS  I saw this after typing;  "Five states — Arizona, California, Florida, Mississippi and Texas — also broke records for average daily fatalities."  And while that may not contradict a lower fatality rate, it's still not a good sign.

 

[living sounds]

Florida reported a record 15,299 new cases of COVID19 in 24 hours... hidden down in the middle of the article was only 45 new deaths.

Again, there's nothing hidden in there. Nothing meaningfull can be inferred from a single day of lower deaths. And if you look at the 7-day average at worldometers, 45 deaths per day is above the average for the entire period of mid-May to early July. In reality, unfortunately, things are looking rather grim. Motivated reasoning doesn't help in a Pandemic.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Again, there's nothing hidden in there. Nothing meaningfull can be inferred from a single day of lower deaths. And if you look at the 7-day average at worldometers, 45 deaths per day is above the average for the entire period of mid-May to early July. In reality, unfortunately, things are looking rather grim. Motivated reasoning doesn't help in a Pandemic.

Sorry but I consider below trend deaths more of a headline than data to be downplayed. BUT they are trumpeting the high numbers no doubt at least a partial result of increased testing.  Arguably both numbers are just data... Only media tries to make isolated data points more than they are. I mentioned deaths in passing because is was in the same article.

I also consider a zero death day in NYC a headline to celebrate, but I am an incurable optimist....

JR

 

[crazydoc]

It appears the headline writers are still going for maximum scare.

Well of course they are, on all sides of the question (underreporting, overreporting, hyping, ignoring, etc), as that equals maximum readership and media money. But we're beating a dead horse here. The numbers are what they are, whatever course they follow, and the sequelae of contagion, morbidity and mortality will fall where they will. Those who can think can find the data and informed opinions, and those who can't will believe whatever supports their emotional bias.

But the USA is going into the shitter for various reasons currently, without strong, informed, competent national leadership (FDR, Churchill et al).

Woe is us.

 

[Winston OBoogie]

But the USA is going into the sh*tter for various reasons currently, without strong, informed, competent national leadership (FDR, Churchill et al).

I never thought I'd be posting a favourable opinion about George W Bush on here, but Trump hasn't once shown empathy and displayed leadership that the country has really needed.    Bush's video regarding the virus is the type of message that could have done much good in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/TheBushCenter/status/1256607729151619073?s=20

 

[crazydoc]

I never thought I'd be posting a favourable opinion about George W Bush on here, but Trump hasn't once shown empathy and displayed leadership that the country has really needed.    Bush's video regarding the virus is the type of message that could have done much good in my opinion.

https://twitter.com/TheBushCenter/status/1256607729151619073?s=20

Yeah, I've often recently thought "Where's Dubya when you need him?" And the only reason I ever registered to vote was to vote against him. 

 

[crazydoc]

Rats leaving the sinking ship? Of course, this rat had already been thrown overboard.
Of course, when stupid affects your kids, it's a different ball game.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mulvaney-calls-u-s-coronavirus-testing-abilities-inexcusable-breaking-from-trump/ar-BB16GtTr?ocid=bingcovid

 

[Winston OBoogie]

Yeah, I've often recently thought "Where's Dubya when you need him?" And the only reason I ever registered to vote was to vote against him. 

. Yep, same here.  Crazy times 

 

[Matador]

Sorry but I consider below trend deaths more of a headline than data to be downplayed. BUT they are trumpeting the high numbers no doubt at least a partial result of increased testing.  Arguably both numbers are just data... Only media tries to make isolated data points more than they are. I mentioned deaths in passing because is was in the same article.

A plot of the trajectory of a 10 megaton ICBM at its peak would also show a very low number of deaths (like 0).  It's what happens later that is a stark contrast to the data in the beginning.  I understand your 'distrust the media' viewpoint but it isn't 'evidence of absence'.

I'm not sure why focusing on the number of daily deaths is so important:  it completely neglects a) there are other side-effects of COVID exposure other than outright death, and b) it shows the trajectory of confirmed infection rate and it's acceleration, just as exponential growth predicts.  It is also portending another log jam in the medical pipeline, which is already stretched thin (doctors and nurses have been on the front lines of this for MOTNHS).  If reporting this is 'scare tactics' then perhaps scare tactics are actually warranted in this case?

If anything, acceleration of 'confirmed cases' due to increased testing just means the pandemic is much farther along and much more severe that the current numbers currently indicate.

 

[JohnRoberts]

A plot of the trajectory of a 10 megaton ICBM at its peak would also show a very low number of deaths (like 0).  It's what happens later that is a stark contrast to the data in the beginning.  I understand your 'distrust the media' viewpoint but it isn't 'evidence of absence'.

and the metaphors get even more bizarre

I'm not sure why focusing on the number of daily deaths is so important:  it completely neglects a) there are other side-effects of COVID exposure other than outright death, and b) it shows the trajectory of confirmed infection rate and it's acceleration, just as exponential growth predicts.  It is also portending another log jam in the medical pipeline, which is already stretched thin (doctors and nurses have been on the front lines of this for MOTNHS).  If reporting this is 'scare tactics' then perhaps scare tactics are actually warranted in this case?

If anything, acceleration of 'confirmed cases' due to increased testing just means the pandemic is much farther along and much more severe that the current numbers currently indicate.

Death seems to be the terminal side effect. Yes we suspect many more infections than test number reflect.

Nobody is saying this isn't serious. I even saw President Trump wearing a mask on TV...  :

JR

 

[Winston OBoogie]

  I even saw President Trump wearing a mask on TV...  :

And just like we do when a toddler manages their first poo in the potty, we congratulated him and said " good job"

 

[Winston OBoogie]

P.S.  According to Drumpf's recent tweet,  ex game-show host Chuck Woolery is now a Covid expert. 

For
f**k's.
Sake.

 

[living sounds]

TBH looking there seems weird at least as far as deaths in Germany. I counted around 50 deaths the past 6 days in Berlin from the gov site...This site shows 42 for all of Germany in the same time frame....

The official count in Germany goes through the official channels (regional health offices, which often still use fax machines to transmit data...) and tends to lag the inofficial counts siginficantly. And a degree of variation between the various counts does generally exist, since the sourcing methods do differ as well.

Best to look at overall longer term trends. The counts can be compared and verified against excess mortality data, analysis of sewage and other means, so we get a pretty accurate and robust picture eventually.

 

[crazydoc]

It looks to me that the White House is ready to throw Dr. Fauci under the bus, in order to place the blame for Trump's completely inept handling of the pandemic onto Fauci for the upcoming campaign. There is, according to news reports, a White House memo has been given to news outlets (that I can't find a complete copy of - Washington Post paywall) detailing Fauci's advice and statements that have turned out later to be incorrect as the pandemic has rolled along, and new science has changed the response to it.

So I can see in the coming months statements like "Well, I was just following the advice of my experts, which has been wrong. So it's not my fault this has turned out so badly."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-house-seeks-discredit-fauci-memo-leaked-reporters/story?id=71745265

 

[JohnRoberts]

It looks to me that the White House is ready to throw Dr. Fauci under the bus, in order to place the blame for Trump's completely inept handling of the pandemic onto Fauci for the upcoming campaign. There is, according to news reports, a White House memo has been given to news outlets (that I can't find a complete copy of - Washington Post paywall) detailing Fauci's advice and statements that have turned out later to be incorrect as the pandemic has rolled along, and new science has changed the response to it.

So I can see in the coming months statements like "Well, I was just following the advice of my experts, which has been wrong. So it's not my fault this has turned out so badly."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-house-seeks-discredit-fauci-memo-leaked-reporters/story?id=71745265

This could be media trying to make news.

Fauci has reversed himself before (wearing masks is an obvious example), but like I suggested at the time that was probably an attempt to preserve PPE in short supply for health professionals .  Now that I am seeing late night TV commercials for cheap masks I'd say the mask shortage is receding, at least for spit masks.

At a recent press conference they asked President Trumps spokeswoman to expand on the mistakes comment to stir the pot. She gave them several examples (her job is to answer questions).

Fauci is a media rock star so probably not going anywhere. That said he is not the only infectious disease expert. Apparently we have several posting right here.  :

JR 

 

[JohnRoberts]

And just like we do when a toddler manages their first poo in the potty, we congratulated him and said " good job"

Thanks I think that's the first time I ever heard you say "good job" about President Trump. I suspect he was trying to ameliorate  objections like yours.

Consider also that this may be a "dog whistle" for his mindless followers, to mask up.  8)

I never did understand how mask wearing was somehow political***, it does seem more age/risk related, or personal perception of that risk.

JR

**** there is however an obvious political difference between trusting government to know all the answers and make life decisions for us, or not. That said many are apparently not competent making all those personal decisions alone. This is nothing new but can have bad outcomes from bad choices. 

 

[crazydoc]

Fauci is a media rock star so probably not going anywhere.

Not the way I see it - they've prepared a list of his "mistakes" which will be used in the campaign  to misdirect any responsibility Pants-on-Fire has for his huge screw up, and dump it on Fauci and other advisors.

That said he is not the only infectious disease expert. Apparently we have several posting right here.  :

That reminds me - about time for my weekly update on how things are going.    No change, except the shitstorm special is roaring down the tracks out of control. 

Well, it looks like the pandemic is out of control (just my uninformed opinion.) The stupidity and lack of self control of people (all the way to the top), and politicizing the mask/mitigation measures seem to be the main factors. Hop on for the ride, the sh!tstorm special is leaving the station.