covid politics

[Matador]

We haven't really touched yet on the suicide pact Trump is demanding of school-aged children, and their teachers/staff.  Simple statistics says there will be hundreds of dead children, and countless dead teachers and parents/grandparents directly as a result of being forced back into school, once the inevitable outbreaks start occurring.

But we have to get the economy restarted, preferably as close to November 3rd as possible, and that takes priority over everything else.

 

[JohnRoberts]

We haven't really touched yet on the suicide pact Trump is demanding of school-aged children, and their teachers/staff.  Simple statistics says there will be hundreds of dead children, and countless dead teachers and parents/grandparents directly as a result of being forced back into school, once the inevitable outbreaks start occurring.

oh dear....  :

But we have to get the economy restarted, preferably as close to November 3rd as possible, and that takes priority over everything else.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/french-minister-tells-of-risks-of-missing-school-as-more-pupils-return-covid-19

Opinions and facts vary....

JR

 

[hodad]

I took a minute to listen to Trump, & he is either an idiot or thinks most Americans are idiots.  Probably both.  Dreadful. 
(Not that this is news to anyone--I just had to make sure nothing had changed.)

(BTW, he was, in a portion of his rambling, discussing lower death rates--something that's been discussed here.  If the lag between newly reported cases and deaths is about 4 weeks, a rough guess from today's Georgia deaths (28) and new cases from about 4 weeks ago (about 850) would suggest a death rate in the neighborhood of 3%.  Better than 2 months ago, but not the astounding numbers touted by Trump and his sheeple.)

 

[living sounds]

We haven't really touched yet on the suicide pact Trump is demanding of school-aged children, and their teachers/staff.  Simple statistics says there will be hundreds of dead children, and countless dead teachers and parents/grandparents directly as a result of being forced back into school, once the inevitable outbreaks start occurring.

Children in school may not be the problem it was expected to be:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/german-study-covid-19-infection-rate-schools-saxony

 

[Matador]

Children in school may not be the problem it was expected to be:

Unfortunately, it's hard to extrapolate outcomes in the USA from places that have functioning democracies, social safety nets, and competent leadership.

 

[hodad]

It's pretty telling that when the numbers start looking bad, Trump can only whine about the number of tests given (because tests cause coronavirus?  Who knows.  That whole "less testing=less virus" schtick is to crazy for me to even try to comprehend), and make moves to get more control of testing data so he can fudge the numbers. 

That is how you beat a pandemic!  That right there is how the pros do it!

 

[JohnRoberts]

Children in school may not be the problem it was expected to be:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/german-study-covid-19-infection-rate-schools-saxony

As should be obvious from some of the inflammatory comments ("suicide pact") this is a politically charged subject with competing interests besides the well being of the children. Keeping the economy underperforming is expected to favor one political party over the other ("its the economy stupid"..  James Carville ).

Ironically suicide is one unintended consequence of extended lock downs (along with increased domestic violence, etc).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-child-suicide-mental-health-nhs-a9617671.html

Good luck separating the wheat from the chaff in this hyper partisan environment.

JR

 

[Matador]

Only the best people!

[quote author=Mike Pence]
We don't want CDC guidance to be a reason why people don't reopen their schools.
[/quote]
Yes Mike:  we don't want the poison label on the bleach bottle to be a reason why kids don't chug it at dinner.

 

[Matador]

As should be obvious from some of the inflammatory comments ("suicide pact") this is a politically charged subject with competing interests besides the well being of the children.

Can I ASSume from your posts that you'll be sending your kids back to school this fall without reservations?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Can I ASSume from your posts that you'll be sending your kids back to school this fall without reservations?

I can't tell you how relieved I am to be old, and not have any kids or long term future outcomes to worry about, but i do worry about others even if not related. 

If I did have children I would send them back to school, without unusual reservations about COVID, I do have plenty of reservations about modern education. For one example the LA teachers union is demanding defunding of police (to give them that money) and a moratorium on charter schools, oh and medicare for all....  :  Never let a crisis go to waste.

My sundry nieces and nephews are older than school age, but they have kids. Home schooling looks pretty good these days. I know a few people who home schooled their kids and they had no regrets. I literally do not know what my nieces and nephews are doing. They don't ask my advice.

The bigger risk IMO from reopening schools is that these snot monsters will carry infections home to their parents (a common vector for community spread of normal flu and contagious infections). I have seen proposals to partition the students into small groups (pods?) to make it easier to manage quarantine and contact tracing as necessary. In theory this is putting parents and close relatives at somewhat elevated risk, but will also allow them to return to their former jobs, also a risk factor.

JR

 

[hodad]

The bigger risk IMO from reopening schools is that these snot monsters will carry infections home to their parents (a common vector for community spread of normal flu and contagious infections). I have seen proposals to partition the students into small groups (pods?) to make it easier to manage quarantine and contact tracing as necessary. In theory this is putting parents and close relatives at somewhat elevated risk, but will also allow them to return to their former jobs, also a risk factor.

JR

I do have a kid in school (he'll be a senior in HS this year), and I do worry about him and his schoolmates being vectors for the virus.  While there seems to be evidence that little kids present less risk, I don't know about high school age children.  It's also worth noting that all this data is very preliminary.

So my kid's school system is starting 2 weeks late and starting virtual.  I think this is the smart choice, as Georgia (like most of the Sun Belt) is seeing its highest case rates yet.  Until the politicians and the people manage to get it together, online learning seems the right place to start.  After that, there will likely be an alternating-day type schedule to allow for more social distancing and smaller risk pools.  Online schooling will happen on the kids' off days, and the thought right now is that there will be an online-only option throughout the school year. 

Probably more than you wanted to know. 

 

[Matador]

The bigger risk IMO from reopening schools is that these snot monsters will carry infections home to their parents (a common vector for community spread of normal flu and contagious infections).

Indeed, this is an excellent reason why threatening to pull funding from schools that don't reopen is absurd, bordering on criminally negligent (apologies in advance for the inflammatory language).  Even assuming zero deaths amongst children, the adult staff, parents, administrators, and extended family are all being put in jeopardy.  We don't yet know what other co-morbidities exist for a statistically significant population of school-aged children.

What France and Germany taught us (in the very article you linked previously) is that controlled reopening assumes a) infection rates (first derivative of total confirmed positive cases) are under control, b) a testing infrastructure that can turn around test results in a matter of days (for people can be quarantined effectively), c) enough reserve capacity in the healthcare pipeline that outbreaks can be quickly responded to, and d) a populace that takes control measures seriously...

...you know, the exact opposite of many places in the USA.

wlinart's post in the other thread should be a cautionary tale that COVID outcomes are not a binary space of "lived with zero consequences" and "died horribly in a matter of days".

 

[crazydoc]

Karma strikes another dumb fuck.

Stitt advocated for President Trump's in-person campaign rally in Tulsa last month. He attended the rally himself and was seen in images of the event not wearing a face mask.
Oklahoma Health Commissioner Lance Frye said Wednesday that it's unclear where Stitt contracted the virus, but "it wasn't so far back as the rally."

Yeah, right.

When asked at Wednesday's press conference if he regretted not wearing a mask often, Stitt said: "I don't really second-guess anything."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/oklahoma-governor-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ar-BB16M5Ab?ocid=bingcovid

Folks not  wearing masks and distancing are a great part of what's causing surging cases, new lockdowns and tanking the economy, They're pissed off about it, but too stupid to realize that they are driving it.

 

[john12ax7]

New mandate to bypass the CDC in data reporting is a bit troubling.  Will there be transparency?

 

[Matador]

New mandate to bypass the CDC in data reporting is a bit troubling.  Will there be transparency?

Maybe Trump needs to find and hire this guy?

 

[living sounds]

It appears the headline writers are still going for maximum scare.

Florida reported a record 15,299 new cases of COVID19 in 24 hours... hidden down in the middle of the article was only 45 new deaths. That death number seems lower than recent trend.

Of course, everybody repeats the headline test numbers as justification for lockdowns.

Coincidentally NY reported first day with zero COVID deaths to far less fanfare.

JR

Just to follow up on this for a minute, the death toll in Florida has climbed, as, sadly, it was to be feared from the data.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

A day of 45 was followed by 35, but then 132 and 112, so the daily average of deaths now tracks the infection curve with the expected lag. Looking at the data, there isn't much hope to expect it will suddenly deviate downwards.

So, focussing on the record number of infections at the time, which are the closest indicator of the current state of affairs, while ignoring statistical flukes in the daily death toll (thank goodness also a much smaller sample size and thus more prone to variations) was the correct thing to do.

Especially if you understand that the press has a vital role to play to inform people about imminent dangers, who in turn play their own role in minimizing exposure for them and others to this current danger.

 

[living sounds]

Here's a good rundown about the predictable relationship between new Covid infections and deaths:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/second-coronavirus-death-surge/614122/

 

[iturnknobs]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

This is what freedom looks like.

 

[iturnknobs]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/texas-newspaper-prints-43-page-obituary-section-coronavirus-deaths-soar-1517297%3famp=1

    More freedom for the hoax pushers. It would appear my contempt for the right is seeming much more like common sense. Weird, huh?
    I permanently removed a neighbor from my yard last week when he said, "I wear masks for people like you so that you feel better." I SCREAMED at him to tell him that that was the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Argument calmed down and he said "At least we can agree on Trump 2020. Keep America Great." I told him he was never welcome again and was shouting even more loudly as he backpedaled, that I would call the police to have him removed if he didn't do it immediately himself. I am DONE with the stupidity... especially on my property. The whole argument began by him telling me about carrying his shotgun across the street to intimidate neighbors for lighting off fireworks at midnight in the middle of the week... just as a low IQ right-winger would. Freedom.

 

[iturnknobs]

I recently discovered a pro administration news service ( OAN). It is a little disconcerting to hear news without the unending negative liberal/progressive spin.

JR

OAN is poison. I've been watching it for over 5 years. They are as pro-trump as it gets. They have several one-hour specials about the "Seth Rich Conspiracy". They literally have propaganda garbage contradicting checkable facts.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/oan-trumps-new-favorite-channel-employs-kremlin-paid-journalist

POISON.