covid politics

[JohnRoberts]

Last year they weren't always looking for flu if you died of any other comorbidity. They never have tested/attributed deaths to flu on any wide scale. My father in law died of pneumonia from COPD and my 95 yo granny died of pneumonia  2 weeks after a vaccination, both during flu season  but neither were tested for flu for instance.. I've mentioned this before somewhere and the fact that there have been studies pointing out this issue....Maybe it's changed....but 2018-19 info is same

"CDC does not count how many people die from flu each year. Unlike flu deaths in children, flu deaths in adults are not nationally reportable"

"There are several factors that make it difficult to determine accurate numbers of flu-associated deaths. Some of the challenges in counting influenza-associated deaths include the following: the sheer volume of deaths to be counted; the fact that not everyone that dies with an influenza-like illness is tested for influenza; and the fact that influenza-associated deaths are often a result of complications secondary to influenza and underlying medical problems, and this may be difficult to sort out. "

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pastseasons/1415season.htm

exactly... lagging and inaccurate reporting. Not much point in performing post mortem tests on typical dead old people, because so many die all the time. With extra compensation for covid deaths I can imagine not wanting to know if covid was assumed to be responsible, and reported. 

A fair comparison of "all cause" mortality numbers should clearly identify the true covid bump, even with the apparent reduced number of flu cases.

I have given up listening to the sky is falling breathless news reports, constantly trying to scare us... I am already scared enough.

The "new" more contagious variant covid, is not actually new, but recently recognized as the dominant UK strain. Since these more infectious strains were already around (the world), the vaccine makers were aware of them.

The next milestone for vaccine safety is a review after something like 30 million (?) doses to the general population. So far just a handful of anaphylaxis reactions in susceptible (allergic) people.

Of course continue to be careful, wash hands, wear mask, and social distance in public... It would really suck to get this close to the finish line and get infected.

JR 

 

[crazydoc]

You don't have to believe the death counts if you think it's just scary news reports. But check out the ICU census and the rationing of critical care that's starting, if you don't think increasing numbers of people have gotten real sick and have died and are dying from this.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I still don't argue about me... or what I think.

On the subject of this variant strain, it is logical that the more infectious variant will become dominant. That's what viri do, they mutate and the more virulent strain wins by crowding out the less virulent.

I have heard one talking head on TV claim that this new strain (that isn't really new) is 70x more infectious than the existing one, while I have heard other reports that it is 70% more infectious. The latter stat is more believable, but less scary (anyone heard r0 numbers?). 

Of course still be afraid, but not so afraid that you hang on every word from those media pukes, or me.

Wash your hands, social distance and wear your mask in public.

JR

PS: Bummer I just figured out I'm in group #3 for vaccination. Old enough to be gimpy, but not old enough to get priority. I am not accustomed to not being old enough for something. That hasn't happened for a while.  

 

[Script]

Indeed, it wouldn't be the first time media picked up random numbers to push catchy headlines.

The virus has mutated into new variants many times already. Until  more detailed info comes in from the UK (and South Africa and probably many other places), a more easily transmitted variant first and foremost means higher incidences and that hospitals fill up faster and can ultimately collapse.

Wash your hands, social distance and wear your mask in public.

+1

 

[living sounds]

It's 70%, which translates to a 0.4 points increase on the basic reproduction number. This may not sound like a lot, but given the mathematical underpinnings of exponentional growth unfortunately this really is a lot. It means restrictions of social interactions have to be a lot more severe than with the less infectious older variant of the virus just to keep virus reproduction at the same level.

 

[crazydoc]

You don't have to believe the death counts if you think it's just scary news reports. But check out the ICU census and the rationing of critical care that's starting, if you don't think increasing numbers of people have gotten real sick and have died and are dying from this.

Rutherford, whose daughter is an emergency room nurse whose hospital has started moving COVID-19 patients into the emergency room area, said the state's hospital system is built "with a surge system mindset." That means if an earthquake or fire hits one part of the state, hospitals in another region or county stand ready to ease the burden. "But right now, it's just bad everywhere," he said, adding that he is hopeful case numbers drop soon. "This surge is the 'son of Thanksgiving.' Now that we are more than a few weeks out from that, it means we should start to turn a corner soon."

Some parts of California need to heed that message more than others. California’s Lassen County, a rural area in the northeastern corner of the state with around 35,000 residents, ranks fifth in the nation with 343 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents.

Facing a crush of patients, doctors and nurses find themselves stretched thin. In Riverside, McIntosh said many of her colleagues are gone. Some have taken more lucrative nursing posts in other states, while others "are just done," overwhelmed both by the growing drumbeat of death as well as what she sees as a dismissive attitude toward health community recommendations ranging from masks to vaccines.
"I hear people saying, 'I won't get a COVID-19 shot,' just like some people have said they won't wear masks," McIntosh said. "But believe me, the result of that attitude is a huge amount of suffering that we see every day."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-faces-darkest-days-as-covid-19-cases-surge-pushing-hospital-staff-to-the-breaking-point/ar-BB1c7U1J?ocid=bingcovid

Hey, it was a great thanksgiving, and now merry xmas. The new hyper-contagious strain should help things along, and when Biden's being inaugurated we can also celebrate the record covid death rates. Maybe by summertime those of us still alive can rejoice in herd immunity.

 

[scott2000]

WHO definition of herd immunity changed.....

From.........

Herd immunity is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. This means that even people who haven’t been infected, or in whom an infection hasn’t triggered an immune response, they are protected because people around them who are immune can act as buffers between them and an infected person. The threshold for establishing herd immunity for COVID-19 is not yet clear.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201105013101/https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-serology

to ..........


‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached.

Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19



I kinda thought vaccines somewhat expose us to it....but WHO knows .... :-\

Is wheat bread still good for you?

 

[JohnRoberts]

WHO definition of herd immunity changed.....

From.........

Herd immunity is the indirect protection from an infectious disease that happens when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection. This means that even people who haven’t been infected, or in whom an infection hasn’t triggered an immune response, they are protected because people around them who are immune can act as buffers between them and an infected person. The threshold for establishing herd immunity for COVID-19 is not yet clear.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201105013101/https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-serology

to ..........


‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached.

Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19



I kinda thought vaccines somewhat expose us to it....but WHO knows .... :-\

Is wheat bread still good for you?

Sadly I stopped trusting the WHO almost a year ago because of their questionable statements. Politics should not distort healthcare advice, but it always has and probably always will.

JR

“History teaches us that man learns nothing from history.” 

 

[crazydoc]

I kinda thought vaccines somewhat expose us to it

Vaccines expose the immune system to a part (antigen) of a pathogen, usually a surface protein but can be a part of or a whole killed virus, that the immune system can then recognize and destroy when invaded by the real thing. If a person survives the real disease, they will probably have protection similar to those who are vaccinated and become part of the immunized herd.

The mrna vaccines instruct the body to actually make the antigen (in the current case, the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein), thus exposing the immune system to that part of the virus.

We will hopefully have herd immunity by summertime if there are enough people in the population who are not mentally defective and will accept vaccination.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Vaccines expose the immune system to a part (antigen) of a pathogen, usually a surface protein but can be a part of or a whole killed virus, that the immune system can then recognize and destroy when invaded by the real thing. If a person survives the real disease, they will probably have protection similar to those who are vaccinated and become part of the immunized herd.

The mrna vaccines instruct the body to actually make the antigen (in the current case, the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein), thus exposing the immune system to that part of the virus.

We will hopefully have herd immunity by summertime if there are enough people in the population who are not mentally defective and will accept vaccination.

Not to mention politicians casting shade on vaccination.  They are a special kind of defective.

JR

 

[scott2000]

We will hopefully have herd immunity by summertime if there are enough people in the population who are not mentally defective and will accept vaccination.

Hope is a good thing. ...

Fauci: 85 percent of the US needs to get the Covid-19 vaccine for “true herd immunity”

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/12/15/22176555/anthony-fauci-covid-19-vaccine-herd-immunity-goal

 

[JohnRoberts]

The real metric is what percentage of the population has immunity (and r0). There appears to be a significant fraction who have been infected but symptomless so the fraction with immunity already may be larger than we know.

Another fraction of the population will decline participating in the vaccine program (an unhealthy trend allowing some old diseases to return).

I remain optimistic that we will enjoy a happier new year.

JR 

 

[iturnknobs]

Snowflakes(Republicans who wanted a hamburger)did/do as they please for months spouting freedom and fake news. Snowflakes(grandparents who wanted to see their families, regardless of consequences) did/do as they please making false "exceptions" to justify their behavior. California's ICU capacity is ZERO percent now. Selfishness is the cause. Period. There is no room for anyone who has a serious accident to be treated. Our country set another death count record yesterday. I would just like to thank anyone and everyone who got together for Christmas to make the effects of this pandemic even more "spectacular" while sticking their middle fingers in the face of any and all front-line health care providers. Humans are so selfish, it will ultimately be the cause of our demise... and we know better. Bring the pain so that the solution may come quicker.

 

[scott2000]

California's ICU capacity is ZERO percent now. Selfishness is the cause. Period.

Mismanagement may play a small role in it.... Other factors as well....Maybe looking back in history might show some clues to if there have been any issues with hospital capacity issues during bad times of the year but idk.. Hard to find anything without filtering through dates and key words...

Weird that CA is an  example being used as a conservative failure but I guess I can see the few ruining it for the many makes sense...

Looking at LA county's data does make it look like it could provide some kind of conspiracy theory worthy talk...

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjPoaLls-7tAhUOvFkKHSQ5C5YQFjAMegQIARAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffile.lacounty.gov%2FSDSInter%2Fdhs%2F1070348_DHSCOVID-19Dashboard.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0O_SGMXFfP2kF-0L06eF67

 

[crazydoc]

Selfishness is the cause.

I often ask myself, as a retired physician, why don't I come out of retirement to help with the pandemic? The short answer is, why would I want to kill myself, both literally and figuratively, to take care of people who not only will not care for themselves, but by their actions, or lack thereof, are injuring and killing many others. As a doctor I had many patients who, by their choices, were causing self harm, illness and death (smokers, alcoholics, drug seekers, gluttons, non-compliants) - but to themselves, not to others, except possibly family members and friends. I had no ethical dilemma in caring for them - it made me angry sometimes, but it was what I signed up for, and I was there to help people who couldn't help themselves.

I have tremendous respect, sadness, compassion and empathy for those health workers who are dealing with this pandemic, especially here in the US where there has been such a lack of these qualities in the leadership and the general population. I don't know how they can keep on going on - I don't know that I could. The saying goes, "We are in this together," but that is only true for the effects of the pandemic - it is complete bullshit regarding the efforts to control it.

Unfortunately this year has taught me more than I ever wanted to know about the human psyche and societal morality. Most people have a lot harder time dealing with this situation than I do - they have economic obligations, children to raise, and the human desire for social interaction. But had there been proper leadership from above, as in WWII, instead of narcissistic pandering to our baser instincts, things would almost certainly have gone and would be going a lot better.

A pic I shot from the news this morning - our health care workers. I wish them all the best in sacrificing themselves to save us from ourselves.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I ask my neighbor, older than me, who is still working several days a week as a pharmacist why he keeps working and his answer is they keep asking him to work.

I tend to discount the doom and gloom mainstream news and (dark winter) political messaging. I may be wrong, but that wouldn't be the first time.

Good luck and I hope you can imagine a better future.

JR

 

 

[crazydoc]

I tend to discount the doom and gloom mainstream news

You and millions and millions of others. All y'all have  good boat ride down that river in Egypt - the water's gonna get mighty rough in the next few weeks, and search and rescue is still months off.

 

[JohnRoberts]

You and millions and millions of others. All y'all have  good boat ride down that river in Egypt - the water's gonna get mighty rough in the next few weeks, and search and rescue is still months off.

one or the other of us will be correct, see you on the other side of da' nile.

Please try to chill... or not. Do what ever floats your boat on the "river". 

Seriously be well... mental attitude matters, but I won't try to doctor you.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

Seriously be well... mental attitude matters, but I won't try to doctor you.

I'm not the one that needs doctoring: denial is a useful coping mechanism, until reality bites you in the ass.

one or the other of us will be correct, see you on the other side of da' nile.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I still decline to argue about me... I hope you feel better.

JR