COVID vaccins: the next problem?

[AnalogPackrat]

Neil Ferguson was the guy whose ill-founded risk estimates drove the west to lock downs in March 2020. Here's a later paper revealing this major error and some of it's effects.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00029-X/fulltext

 

[cyrano]

Neil Ferguson is only human, and resigned in early 2020...

Besides, a lot of the scientists involved in the decision making resigned. The one advising our govt needed police protection for months, because of serious death threats. He moved to a safe house with his family for a while. The threats came from survivalist gun nuts.

A lot of scientists didn't see the anti-vax movement coming. Not so hard to understand since scientists tend to be logical people.

The different estimates were 25 to 50% off. Not so bad if the situation is taken into account. They were asked to go from a worst case scenario.

And who knows what would have happened without vaccination. Over here, it wasn't compulsory and we reached 98% fairly fast. There never was the level of resistance here, compared to the US.

I've discussed this with several specialists in the field. They all have questions, but not about the vaccines. Even if a few of them haven't been vaccinated. At least one didn't get the vaccine cause it would mean he wouldn't get asked to work for the govt. It would have put his current research at risk and that means a lot more to him than the risk of dying from covid. A few others (retired) didn't get it for health reasons.

 

[crazydoc]

However, the authors derived these projections from best available estimates at the time. The evolving nature of empirical knowledge about COVID-19 provides current estimates with more accurate information than what would have been available merely weeks after first discovery of the virus—plus the benefit of hindsight.
......
Ultimately, the relative value of mask wearing and physical distancing, and the economic consequences of lockdowns will be analysed retrospectively. These evaluations will use worst-case scenarios of unmitigated progression as the measuring stick to describe the merit of different public health interventions. Still, initial projections were commendable efforts that brought about public action despite more than 2 million deaths in the USA and more than 500 000 deaths in the UK being a significant overestimation.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00029-X/fulltext

To decry past mistakes looking through the retrospectoscope takes supercilious arrogance; to attempt to foresee a future course of action, with the best of intentions, though having inadequate information, takes courage.

 

[Matador]

To decry past mistakes looking through the retrospectoscope takes supercilious arrogance; to attempt to foresee a future course of action, with the best of intentions, though having inadequate information, takes courage.

This paper gets more and more prescient: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10110335/

Revisionism has been noted on a broad range of topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some actors have disparaged vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 as ineffective, despite incontrovertible evidence that they have prevented many millions of deaths worldwide.13 Now that variants have evolved to diminish vaccines’ ability to prevent viral transmission, some have claimed that vaccine mandates — many of which were instituted before the emergence of immune-evasive Omicron variants — were discriminatory in intent and did not support public health.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Neil Ferguson is only human, and resigned in early 2020...

So were all of the people negatively affected by his bullshit predictions. Note he also over-hyped several past outbreaks, so it isn't like he had a great record. Scientists should be more humble and provide error bars on their predictions. Instead we get self-assured smugness.

Besides, a lot of the scientists involved in the decision making resigned.

Good. They blew it.

The one advising our govt needed police protection for months, because of serious death threats. He moved to a safe house with his family for a while.

Well, bad decisions have consequences.

The threats came from survivalist gun nuts.

Right. Sounds like typical news spin.

A lot of scientists didn't see the anti-vax movement coming. Not so hard to understand since scientists tend to be logical people.

No, because they are silo-thinkers who have isolated themselves from the rest of us. Pragmatism is not even a consideration. Unintended consequences and other effects aren't considered. Plenty of regular folks could see these future (now past and current) problems but were shouted down as uneducated ignorati with no valid opinion.

The different estimates were 25 to 50% off.

The one that drove the decision to lock down was 10x over. That's what's important.

Not so bad if the situation is taken into account. They were asked to go from a worst case scenario.

Which is not how proper decisions are made. Estimating worst case vs. predicting it to occur are two different things.

And who knows what would have happened without vaccination.

OC43. The virus was already mutating to mostly less dangerous variants. Herd immunity was happening as a majority of people had already been exposed by the time the shots were EUA.

Over here, it wasn't compulsory and we reached 98% fairly fast. There never was the level of resistance here, compared to the US.

So? Free-thinking people are different than statist collectivists.

I've discussed this with several specialists in the field. They all have questions, but not about the vaccines. Even if a few of them haven't been vaccinated. At least one didn't get the vaccine cause it would mean he wouldn't get asked to work for the govt. It would have put his current research at risk and that means a lot more to him than the risk of dying from covid. A few others (retired) didn't get it for health reasons.

Sounds like some did have questions if they didn't get the shot "for health reasons."

 

[AnalogPackrat]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00029-X/fulltext

To decry past mistakes looking through the retrospectoscope takes supercilious arrogance; to attempt to foresee a future course of action, with the best of intentions, though having inadequate information, takes courage.

Keep telling yourself that. It wasn't retrospective when these issues were brought up in 2020. And when the actual risks were better understood, May-June 2020, the lock downs were extended for no good reason. When a few governors started opening up their states the knives came out. I remember all that.

Just because you refused to see it then does not make others' insight at the time "restrospective."

 

[AnalogPackrat]

This paper gets more and more prescient: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10110335/

CYA. No surprise that the people who were smugly wrongheaded are now trying to gaslight us into thinking otherwise when plenty of people (including some brave scientists and medical professionals) pointed out these failings in 2020.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Here's another study proving simple, cheap, existing supplements were effective prophylactics against Covid. Or just going outside in the summer. But no! That's dangerous! You must stay inside and isolate yourself! What, do you want to kill grandma or something?!

I remember this simple recommendation (along with zinc) being ridiculed by "experts" and the press 2020-21.

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/16/5/679

 

[cyrano]

Right. Sounds like typical news spin.

Just this. You have no idea what you're on about. Any fact that doesn't suit your bias is spinned into some tin-hat fairy tale.

The people i'm mentioning were from the military. Known right-wing nuts that were already under surveillance. One of them was shot and killed during the search of their premises. Explosive, .50 guns and a boatload of other stuff was found. The rest has been jailed.

And no, there was no reason to threaten the govt adviser. Of course, terrorists get your approval if they fit your fantasy.

I won't waste any time on this again.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Just this. You have no idea what you're on about. Any fact that doesn't suit your bias is spinned into some tin-hat fairy tale.

Anyone who stands against the statists is baaaaad.

The people i'm mentioning were from the military. Known right-wing nuts that were already under surveillance. One of them was shot and killed during the search of their premises. Explosive, .50 guns and a boatload of other stuff was found. The rest has been jailed.

Maybe a link to a news story would be helpful. Around here there's nothing unusual about .50 cal rifles. I know it upsets the Euros, but as far as I can tell no one has been killed by such a weapon in private hands here in the US.

And no, there was no reason to threaten the govt adviser. Of course, terrorists get your approval if they fit your fantasy.

No, I simply see that, at least here in the US, violence is approved when used by Antifa, BLM, etc., but condemned when used by people holding opposing views. The bias and spin are apparent if you can exit whatever bubble you're in.

I won't waste any time on this again.

I'll be here when you return.

 

[crazydoc]

Just this. You have no idea what you're on about. Any fact that doesn't suit your bias is spinned into some tin-hat fairy tale.

Nailed it.

I won't waste any time on this again.

Sealions waste a lot of time (their own and others.) They try to push buttons, but best to ignore them.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Again more personal focus than on policy and things. Can't we all just get along?

JR

 

[jabe]

 

[crazydoc]

Again more personal focus than on policy and things. Can't we all just get along?

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Thank you for the support....

JR

 

[cyrano]

A completely different take on the problem of clots:

https://www.sciencealert.com/plastic-found-inside-more-than-50-of-plaques-from-clogged-arteries

Now, a small study in Italy has found shards of microplastics in fatty deposits surgically removed from patients who had an operation to open up their clogged arteries – and reported their health outcomes nearly 3 years later.

I'm waiting for a link between plastics and man-made (eternal) molecules, like PFAS.

 

[crazydoc]

Yes I've been reporting myo/pericarditis at least 10 times since 2021 here and in this forum since 2022: https://groupdiy.com/threads/the-covid-conspiracy-thread.82178/page-2#post-1065048 and you, crazydoc, called it, at the time, bullshit. So don't dishonestly act like you knew it all along. I was right and I'll say once again that the point is not to be right but to prevent the uniformed from allowing a militarized medical establishment from killing millions of innocent people. You, crazydoc, by minimizing, debasing and making fun of legitimate concerns are part of the problem. I don't think you're being honest or consistent.

Maybe you could point out to me where I called it (myocarditis/pericarditis specifically as an adverse reaction to mRNA vaccination) bullshit. Just because something is included in a "Draft working list of possible adverse event outcomes subject to change" doesn't mean that it is an adverse event until there is data to back it up.

Nothing, huh? That tin hat is an excellent fit - if your avatar showed your whole body we could see your pants on fire too.

 

[fallout]

The old fart couldn't even stick to his guns.

https://neilyoungarchives.com/news/1/article?id=MY RETURN TO LOW RES SPOTIFY

They're all phonies.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

The old fart couldn't even stick to his guns.

https://neilyoungarchives.com/news/1/article?id=MY RETURN TO LOW RES SPOTIFY

They're all phonies.

Hard to respect an artist who opposes the very same freedom of speech and expression he wants to enjoy.

 

[57sputnik]

'Excess Mortality Skyrocketed': Tucker Carlson and Dr. Pierre Kory Unpack 'Criminal' COVID Response
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/e...lson-and-dr-pierre-kory-unpack-criminal-covid