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Nice chart (lies, damn lies, and statistics)... :rolleyes:

Here's a chart showing what inflation was like before President Biden took office. The inflation reduction (cough) act is a misnamed Green New Deal, even President Biden admits that it is a huge green spending program.

iu


Note the rising central bank interest rates coincident with falling inflation...(they are the ones actually reducing inflation)

The question is whether the fed can stop inflation without crashing the economy. So far there is still so much liquidity sloshing around, and consumers are drawing upon their credit cards to spend, so the economy keeps ticking along, but danger Will Robinson. 🤔

The yield curve is inverted and that portends a future recession, but such predictions do not include precise dates for when.

JR

iu
 
Nice chart (lies, damn lies, and statistics)... :rolleyes:
Note the rising central bank interest rates coincident with falling inflation...(they are the ones actually reducing inflation)
So I guess inflation is falling. That’s exactly the role of a central bank. Remember Powell was a Trump appointment. He’s a conservative Republican. He doesn’t have to listen to a thing Biden says.
 
So I guess inflation is falling. That’s exactly the role of a central bank. Remember Powell was a Trump appointment. He’s a conservative Republican. He doesn’t have to listen to a thing Biden says.
Falling from 9%
===
The fed chief is independent so not a typical partisan appointment.

He is tasked with a dual mandate; target 2% inflation (not too hot, not too cool, just right), and low unemployment. Some (like me) argue that those two goals can be in conflict with each other. Despite the pretty curve showing a slowing inflation rate we are still well about the "just right" 2% and Powell is still making noises about future interest rate increases. The lag or time delay between rate changes and the economy fully absorbing them could cause some instability.

I can't predict the future but I am more likely to sell than buy stocks now. I was thinking about trimming some of my Walmart stock, but they got $86 from me today for one week's groceries, so they'll probably be OK. :unsure:

JR
 
Note the rising central bank interest rates coincident with falling inflation...(they are the ones actually reducing inflation)

Yup. But it was also their incompetence (or perhaps malevolence) that was a significant cause in the first place

He is tasked with a dual mandate; target 2% inflation (not too hot, not too cool, just right), and low unemployment.

The mandate is price stability. The 2% number is entirely made up pseudo-economic BS.
 
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It's funny seeing people argue about the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that has very little to do with what its name implies. A recurring tactic for unscrupulous politicians.

If you believe it will significantly increase Inflation then you either don't understand economics or watch too much Fox News.

If you believe it will significantly reduce Inflation then you either don't understand economics or watch too much MSNBC.

Lay off the political drugs people.
 
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It's funny seeing people argue about the Inflation Reduction Act.

If you believe it will significantly increase Inflation then you either don't understand economics or watch too much Fox News.

If you believe it will significantly reduce Inflation then you either don't understand economics or watch too much MSNBC.

Lay off the political drugs people.
Your comment reminded me of an old president here who, when asked about the bilateral relation between the US and Mexico, said:

It doesn't benefit us nor harm us, but quite the contrary.
 
Where did I attack "your country"?
Constant negative and disparaging commentary about those who support Constitutional originality, actual liberty/individualism, or who happen to be right of your very left perspective. My country is made of its people and you cannot help but disparage a large number of us based on, well, something you read in The Guardian. It gets old.

Let's not confuse political commentary with aggressive behaviour towards a state, and especially, its people.
Oh, please. How many times has anyone here disparaged large parts of the German citizenry like you have done to the US? Most of us here in the USA don't want to be like Europe. Those that prefer European culture/values/lifestyle are free to move there (I have several friends who have).
 
High inflation is a global phenomenon in a global economy affected by a global pandemic (etc.). And this global economy / financial system was already past its experiation date and supported by half-rotten blood infusions of negative interest, quantative easing etc. And then got hit by a war that rattled the energy supply. And climate change certainly doesn't make things better...

So yes, Biden has little influence on inflation, and that bill was misnamed (quite intentionally, of course, as is customary). I'm still baffled they actually got it through congress. But it's a bill filled with great provisions that will give the US a competitive advantage and cause many improvements, I think. It puts quite a lot of pressure on European countries to do similar things.
 
Constant negative and disparaging commentary about those who support Constitutional originality, actual liberty/individualism, or who happen to be right of your very left perspective. My country is made of its people and you cannot help but disparage a large number of us based on, well, something you read in The Guardian. It gets old.
I'm sorry, but you'd have to be more specific than that. "Originalism" in the legal realm is a doctrine made up to further a certain agenda. If you are personally offended by that, I am afraid I can't help you.

When I was in DC a few months ago I made a photo of this great quote by Thomas Jefferson:


IMG_7640.jpg
 
Your comment reminded me of an old president here who, when asked about the bilateral relation between the US and Mexico, said:

I don't see why it would remind you of that. If person A believes yelling at the tv causes their sports team to win, while person B believes yelling at the tv causes their sports team to lose, which one is right?

As a tangent though that quote reminds me of some gems from Yogi Berra.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/03/the-50-greatest-yogi-berra-quotes
 
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I'm sorry, but you'd have to be more specific than that. "Originalism" in the legal realm is a doctrine made up to further a certain agenda. If you are personally offended by that, I am afraid I can't help you.

When I was in DC a few months ago I made a photo of this great quote by Thomas Jefferson:


View attachment 113378
Yes, as exemplified by the self-modification process built into our Constitution among other things. He certainly wouldn't support your views on many things, originalism among them.

Out of curiosity, did you also see this when you visited the Jefferson Memorial (not my pic, but I've been several times as I was raised by parents with a keen interest in history).

1000012278.jpg

I find a high degree of alignment with Jefferson on most things. Here are a couple of other quotations you may find interesting.

"if we can but prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people, under the pretence of taking care of them, they must become happy."

T. Jefferson to Thomas Cooper 11/29/1802

"I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious. Government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have ... The course of history shows that as a government grows, liberty decreases. The two enemies of the people are criminals and government, so let us tie the second down with the chains of the constitution so the second will not become the legalized version of the first."

T. Jefferson in letter to William Ludlow 9/6/1824
 
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Yup. But it was also their incompetence (or perhaps malevolence) that was a significant cause in the first place
Not alone, government spending is contributory to inflation. I will give them half a pass for that spending due to an inconvenient pandemic, but the inflation reduction act is still a bad joke.
The mandate is price stability. The 2% number is entirely made up pseudo-economic BS.
is that what price stability looks like?

JR
 
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government spending is contributory to inflation.

What is the logical reason for it to increase Inflation? On its own there isn't one.

Consider where the money comes from. Government spending will increase demand in the area they spend on. But if it comes from increased taxes, then money is removed and demand goes down in another area. On the whole aggregate demand is relatively unchanged so the effect on inflation is also relatively insignificant. Same goes if the government borrows the money.

Inflation will only be impacted if the government spends newly printed money, as now aggregate demand has actually increased. But this is really a money supply issue, not a government spending one. Same thing would happen if consumers spend newly printed money.
 
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Yes, as exemplified by the self-modification process built into our Constitution among other things. He certainly wouldn't support your views on many things, originalism among them.

Let's agree to disagree.
Out of curiosity, did you also see this when you visited the Jefferson Memorial (not my pic, but I've been several times as I was raised by parents with a keen interest in history).

Sure, I made photos of all the quotes chiseled in marble there.
View attachment 113386

I find a high degree of alignment with Jefferson on most things. Here are a couple of other quotations you may find interesting.

"if we can but prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people, under the pretence of taking care of them, they must become happy."

T. Jefferson to Thomas Cooper 11/29/1802

"I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious. Government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have ... The course of history shows that as a government grows, liberty decreases. The two enemies of the people are criminals and government, so let us tie the second down with the chains of the constitution so the second will not become the legalized version of the first."

T. Jefferson in letter to William Ludlow 9/6/1824
These are real problems, but they are just one kind of problem. The misconception of the neooliberal ideology that followed the liberal consensus was, that reducing government and giving things into private hands would be better. But it creates its own problems. The underlying causes, like cyclical elite overproduction, can lead to problematic outcomes on very different tracks.

I found this post fascinating:

https://peterturchin.com/living-without-a-state/

It explains how thousands of NGOs in Haiti diminished governement and made the whole situation much worse. NGOs are an outcome of elite overproduction. The latter is detrimental to a society regardless of people going into government or private enterprise.

These findings are part of the "progress of the human mind" that need to be taken into account.
 
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What is the logical reason for it to increase Inflation? On its own there isn't one.
true
Consider where the money comes from. Government spending will increase demand in the area they spend on. But if it comes from increased taxes, then money is removed and demand goes down in another area. On the whole aggregate demand is relatively unchanged so the effect on inflation is also relatively insignificant. Same goes if the government borrows the money.
government borrowing is a factor when the government is both buying and selling bond to manipulate the bond market prices, or try to.
Inflation will only be impacted if the government spends newly printed money, as now aggregate demand has actually increased. But this is really a money supply issue, not a government spending one. Same thing would happen if consumers spend newly printed money.
Money supply growth with marginal reserve banking can come from other than the printing presses.

A static analysis suggests that inflation comes from too much money chasing too few goods and services. To hit 9% somebody seriously dropped the ball. The money supply needs to grow commensurate with GDP growth, if GDP growth is slowed (by things like a pandemic, or increasing regulation) without slowing the money supply growth.

I am not smart enough to know exactly who screwed the pooch. While some in government claim that modern monetary theory allows them to create unlimited money supply, hopefully even they don't believe that. :)

JR
 
Let's agree to disagree.
Open your mind.

Sure, I made photos of all the quotes chiseled in marble there.

These are real problems, but they are just one kind of problem.
They are the main problem, namely concentration of power/control/authority in the hands of a minority rather than distributed among the people.

The misconception of the neooliberal ideology that followed the liberal consensus was, that reducing government and giving things into private hands would be better.
And it is, as can be seen by studying history. But the concentration of power in private hands must also be prevented.

But it creates its own problems. The underlying causes, like cyclical elite overproduction, can lead to problematic outcomes on very different tracks.
The root problem is the same. We, in the US, have deviated from these basic principles to our detriment.

I found this post fascinating:

https://peterturchin.com/living-without-a-state/

It explains how thousands of NGOs in Haiti diminished governement and made the whole situation much worse. NGOs are an outcome of elite overproduction. The latter is detrimental to a society regardless of people going into government or private enterprise.

Power outages in the US are mostly repaired by power utilities (and outside contractors when a natural disaster affects a larger region), not government. Government (usually using private contractors) clears and repairs roadways. Depending on the area, other utilities may be municipal, private, or some combination.

While the 3 day outage experienced by one family after Hurricane Sandy was not unusual, it was also not the average. NY had 95% restoration in 13 days. When I lived in CA I experienced many multi-day outages including several that lasted 5-7 days. No one from government was involved in restoration of power. State and county agencies cleared roads (using private contractors for tree work and repair of washed out public roads). PG&E, sometimes with assistance from out-of-state utilities or contractors, repaired damaged power systems.

When I was a summer intern for BellSouth in the late 80s, their goal was no customer out of service for more than 24 hours. Of course that was not possible after a major disaster, but they held their own after severe thunderstorms and other widespread outage events. It wasn't government regulation that spawned this policy, it went back to corporate culture from the AT&T days where quality of service was core to the business.

Bottom line: private industry is often better than government at providing services. Government's role is in regulation (for quality and safety) and to prevent monopolistic situations or other concentrations of power and authority that undermine the common good of a free society.

I imagine Jefferson and Madison would look at modern society and be amazed by many things, but probably wish they had included some mechanisms to limit accumulation of corporate power/authority in our Constitution.

In an 1816 letter to George Logan, Jefferson wrote:

"I hope we shall take warning from the example and crush in it’s birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial of strength, and to bid defiance to the laws of their country."

In an 1816 letter responding to John Taylor he wrote:

"And I sincerely believe with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; & that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."

Link to full letter

Small government (i.e. disdain for large government) was not something first conceived by Hayek or van Mises as Turchin states. It started more than century earlier with men like Jefferson. The Tea Party movement and other recent phenomenon are the result of the ongoing struggle by Americans to adhere to these important and still very relevant principles. Turchin fundamentally misses the mark here.

These things are part of the "progress of the human mind" that need to be taken into account.
Progress of the human mind in the past couple of centuries has almost entirely been in the form of technological advances and not sociological, psychological, or governmental. Why? Because basic human nature evolves slowly. Many of us are curious and become scientists, engineers, technologists and help advance humanity on that front. But the darker authoritarian side of humanity still wants to control others and must ever be checked by laws and occasionally violence. Bigger government (and large corporations) are the main danger and we have failed to keep them in check.
 
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Open your mind.
You are a funny guy.

They are the main problem, namely concentration of power/control/authority in the hands of a minority rather than distributed among the people.

And it is, as can be seen by studying history. But the concentration of power in private hands must also be prevented.

Indeed. Since we agree on this, why would you support the Reupublican party? They have done everything they could, helped by billionaire donor's and ideologically charged think tank to advance an agenda for a very small minority at the very top of the food chain...

Progress of the human mind in the past couple of centuries has almost entirely been in the form of technological advances and not sociological, psychological, or governmental. Why? Because basic human nature evolves slowly. Many of us are curious and become scientists, engineers, technologists and help advance humanity on that front.

The world is objectively very different in the social realm today, at least in western democracies. Stephen Pinker, for instance, has documented it very well in his books.

But the darker authoritarian side of humanity still wants to control others and must ever be checked by laws and occasionally violence. Bigger government (and large corporations) are the main danger and we have failed to keep them in check.
As has always been the case. However, underlying the cyclical ups and downs there is also a general trend of progress. At least since the enlightenment, although if you look a lot farther back, the picture becomes less clear, as David Graeberand David Wengrow argue quite convincingly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dawn_of_Everything
 
Indeed. Since we agree on this, why would you support the Reupublican party? They have done everything they could, helped by billionaire donor's and ideologically charged think tank to advance an agenda for a very small minority at the very top of the food chain...
The RNC and DNC are both private corporations that serve their own interests. Both are only interested in maintaining control and keeping themselves fat and wealthy. The real question is why would you support either. They certainly don't represent the voters.
 

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