The more world news I read, the sadder I get...
JR
JR
Gun Stats
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micaddict
Well-known member
That, too.
bruno2000
Well-known member
Interesting./....
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/07/28/critics-shoot-holes-in-widely-cited-gun-study.html
Best,
Bruno2000
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/07/28/critics-shoot-holes-in-widely-cited-gun-study.html
Best,
Bruno2000
Lies, damn lies, and statistics...bruno2000 said:
I expect a lot more vigorous discussion about gun laws over the next few months.
JR
The increased gun violence in Chicago momentarily broke into the news cycle when a relative of a NBA player was killed accidentally. Since then it has receded again into obscurity.
Chicago just reached an ugly milestone where 2016 gun violence has eclipsed all of 2015.
Reporting about this is all over the place but one data point that stands out to me is that many shootings are by repeat offenders. Perhaps getting more of them off the street might save some lives but that is contrary to popular movements to release more prisoners (maybe don't release violent criminals who are repeat offenders?).
This sounds alarmingly reminiscent of the situation driving the old federal 3 strikes law . One of the two men who shot Dwayne Wade's cousin was on break from his ankle monitor (wtf??). A search of repeat offenders in chicago also turns up that just 124 of the 12,000 member police force turn up in 1/3 of misconduct settlements. Perhaps if the bad apples in the police force had to pay a share of the settlements personally that would motive them toward better behavior... sounds like those 124 need a long vacation to find a different gig. With them costing Chicago tens of millions I doubt they will be looked upon kindly by their bosses come review time.
JR
Chicago just reached an ugly milestone where 2016 gun violence has eclipsed all of 2015.
Reporting about this is all over the place but one data point that stands out to me is that many shootings are by repeat offenders. Perhaps getting more of them off the street might save some lives but that is contrary to popular movements to release more prisoners (maybe don't release violent criminals who are repeat offenders?).
This sounds alarmingly reminiscent of the situation driving the old federal 3 strikes law . One of the two men who shot Dwayne Wade's cousin was on break from his ankle monitor (wtf??). A search of repeat offenders in chicago also turns up that just 124 of the 12,000 member police force turn up in 1/3 of misconduct settlements. Perhaps if the bad apples in the police force had to pay a share of the settlements personally that would motive them toward better behavior... sounds like those 124 need a long vacation to find a different gig. With them costing Chicago tens of millions I doubt they will be looked upon kindly by their bosses come review time.
JR
rob_gould
Well-known member
JohnRoberts said:
An alternative interpretation of that data is that incarceration does not lead to rehabilitation in the first place.
That is pretty obvious but one of the few jobs for government is public safety, releasing repeat offenders without some assurance they won't repeat again seems contrary to insuring public safety. Rehabilitation is nice if you can accomplish it but easier said than done. Rehabilitation would ultimately increase public safety but at even higher cost and less certainty.rob_gould said:
This is complicated by prison crowding that motivates the early/easy release.
The three strikes law was passed under Bill Clinton and he is now trying to walk that back as responsible for prison over crowding and "does little to prevent crime" according to him (huh?). Hard for a bad ass to shoot innocent civilians from inside jail. If prisons are over crowded perhaps we have too many criminals breaking the laws. While life sentences for 3x seem harsh. Perhaps something in between that and the current catch and release. Non-violent criminals don't need free room and board... perhaps some kind of public service commitment combined with electronic monitoring.
I expect more use of electronic ankle monitoring so prisoners can be managed while not taking up a prison cell and being fed and housed by the state. But coincidentally the miscreant who shot Dwayne Wade's cousin in Chicago was on a break from wearing his ankle monitor. I sure hope somebody is rethinking that policy. Sad that it takes a celebrity connected killing for people to notice.
Our high levels of incarceration are a symptom that something is not right, but just releasing prisoners who shouldn't be released is addressing the symptom irresponsibly and not the root problem.
JR
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mattiasNYC
Guest
Sstop-and-frisk statistics from 2012 in NYC:
The statistics are clear. Why were only about 10% of those stopped white then?
Here's an ex Marine / ex Baltimore cop explaining how things work there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5nPyf-0UMc
Anyone concerned about guns on the streets of NY should advocate stopping more white people. I think there is contact information on the NYPD websites, if you feel inclined to do us all a service....
The statistics are clear. Why were only about 10% of those stopped white then?
Here's an ex Marine / ex Baltimore cop explaining how things work there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5nPyf-0UMc
Anyone concerned about guns on the streets of NY should advocate stopping more white people. I think there is contact information on the NYPD websites, if you feel inclined to do us all a service....
Are you suggesting strict profiling based on race?mattiasNYC said:
JR
M
mattiasNYC
Guest
JohnRoberts said:
Nice try, you know full well I was being facetious. But if it was a joke I appreciate it.
I suggest that the police a) follow the law, b) follow the constitution. If they do, they'll need reasonable suspicion to stop and frisk someone. Skin color won't suffice in my opinion, but if it does then statistics will tell you that in New York City white people should be stopped more often than black people.
So, if you, John Roberts, think that guns need to be taken off the streets (in addition to other contraband), and if you think that profiling based on race/statistics is appropriate regardless of its legality, then you should advocate for the NYPD to target white people, not 80% not-white people.
But either way, we have NYPD commanders as well as NYPD officers telling us all exactly how it works, and it's the opposite of the above. The ex-cop from Baltimore explains why. Ignoring this doesn't make it go away, it'll only perpetuate it.
gltech
Well-known member
Maybe they were thinking about who tended to use the weapons as opposed to carrying them the year before:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/yearend2011enforcementreport.pdf
Or on into the year, maybe that year's stats at some point:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/2012_year_end_enforcement_report.pdf
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/yearend2011enforcementreport.pdf
Or on into the year, maybe that year's stats at some point:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/2012_year_end_enforcement_report.pdf
NYC police and anti-terrorism efforts have made great progress over the decades.
It is interesting that I seem stuck on the increasing violence in Chicago (I guess we each have our pet peeves).
I haven't been paying close attention to Baltimore but ASSume it is similar to other democratic run large cities. From wiki it looks like Baltimore reported a multi-decade low 196 homicides in 2011 but reversed to increasing similar to trends in other large cities. Violent crime spiked in 2015 after the Freddie Gray death (with rioting) but was already up before that. Now they have FBI imbedded into their homicide squads, I guess to police the police.
I believe we still have a major problem with how we look at the police. For all the bad apples, they are the good guys trying to keep the public safe, but apparently not trying as hard these days with waning public support while under a microscope looking for every misstep (ferguson effect).
Did you see this BB gun some kid pulled while police were trying to arrest him (in Columbus OH).
Maybe they should outlaw kids (especially when they match the description of robbery suspects) from carrying realistic looking BB guns (with added laser sight). What parent in their right mind thinks that's OK for a kid to own? And what kid thinks it's a good idea to pull that out of his pants in front of police officer?
This is a failure on multiple levels. Parents, schools, local government, lastly police.
JR
PS; I hope our friends in NYC are OK, yesterday's bombing was first in quite a while.
It is interesting that I seem stuck on the increasing violence in Chicago (I guess we each have our pet peeves).
I haven't been paying close attention to Baltimore but ASSume it is similar to other democratic run large cities. From wiki it looks like Baltimore reported a multi-decade low 196 homicides in 2011 but reversed to increasing similar to trends in other large cities. Violent crime spiked in 2015 after the Freddie Gray death (with rioting) but was already up before that. Now they have FBI imbedded into their homicide squads, I guess to police the police.
I believe we still have a major problem with how we look at the police. For all the bad apples, they are the good guys trying to keep the public safe, but apparently not trying as hard these days with waning public support while under a microscope looking for every misstep (ferguson effect).
Did you see this BB gun some kid pulled while police were trying to arrest him (in Columbus OH).
Maybe they should outlaw kids (especially when they match the description of robbery suspects) from carrying realistic looking BB guns (with added laser sight). What parent in their right mind thinks that's OK for a kid to own? And what kid thinks it's a good idea to pull that out of his pants in front of police officer?
This is a failure on multiple levels. Parents, schools, local government, lastly police.
JR
PS; I hope our friends in NYC are OK, yesterday's bombing was first in quite a while.
I just saw where the FBI reported that murders in US jumped 10.8% in 2015. This is not only a reversal in trend (Murders had been falling for decades). This large and sudden step change increase is not explainable by much slower moving demographic or economic trends. In other words something significant has changed recently.
Not surprising St Louis is at the top of the list with Baltimore and Detroit right behind.
I remain very suspicious of a "Ferguson" effect where police behavior has been altered by negative public sentiment toward police and even non-support from their own local leaders, causing them to be less aggressive policing, and subsequently less effective at their job of protecting the public.
It is too late to nip this in the bud, but i applaud Chicago's recent increase of their police ranks.
More body cams and more positive public support is needed.
JR
Not surprising St Louis is at the top of the list with Baltimore and Detroit right behind.
I remain very suspicious of a "Ferguson" effect where police behavior has been altered by negative public sentiment toward police and even non-support from their own local leaders, causing them to be less aggressive policing, and subsequently less effective at their job of protecting the public.
It is too late to nip this in the bud, but i applaud Chicago's recent increase of their police ranks.
More body cams and more positive public support is needed.
JR
M
mattiasNYC
Guest
Police departments hate having to release evidence of their misconduct and lies, and police officers hate getting filmed and thereby not being able to act as they choose.
Why some people think it's a good thing to not film the police and to not release video evidence of the police's conduct I'll never understand. It's as if they're secretly in love with the police being allowed to do what they want to residents... like some sort of yearning for quasi-fascism....
If we all got a dollar for every time a police officer reported after an incident that a suspect resisted arrest and/or attacked the officer only for a video to prove it wasn't like that at all we'd all be gazillionaires...
As for this "tough-guy" approach to policing: Well, the US has like the largest prison population per capita, and the most police killings, and constitution-violating police departments stopping and frisking people.... how much tougher can you get? And as for New York crime didn't go up when stop-and-frisk incidents dropped, it just continued dropping, as I already pointed out. All this "have to support the police" "rah rah" just seems like partisan talking points with little anchoring in the real world.
Watch the video with the interview of the Baltimore cop to see what the issues are.
And lastly: The privilege people speak about is the benefit of the doubt. How many times do we have to see some people gunned down by police despite not being aggressive at all in an open-carry state, with weapons (legally) or without weapons (toys)? If it's open carry it's open carry. If they're not attacking police they're not attacking police.
Why some people think it's a good thing to not film the police and to not release video evidence of the police's conduct I'll never understand. It's as if they're secretly in love with the police being allowed to do what they want to residents... like some sort of yearning for quasi-fascism....
If we all got a dollar for every time a police officer reported after an incident that a suspect resisted arrest and/or attacked the officer only for a video to prove it wasn't like that at all we'd all be gazillionaires...
As for this "tough-guy" approach to policing: Well, the US has like the largest prison population per capita, and the most police killings, and constitution-violating police departments stopping and frisking people.... how much tougher can you get? And as for New York crime didn't go up when stop-and-frisk incidents dropped, it just continued dropping, as I already pointed out. All this "have to support the police" "rah rah" just seems like partisan talking points with little anchoring in the real world.
Watch the video with the interview of the Baltimore cop to see what the issues are.
And lastly: The privilege people speak about is the benefit of the doubt. How many times do we have to see some people gunned down by police despite not being aggressive at all in an open-carry state, with weapons (legally) or without weapons (toys)? If it's open carry it's open carry. If they're not attacking police they're not attacking police.
AFAIK this is fairly new ground to adjudicate and is handled differently in different jurisdictions. In some high profile cases the public release of videos inflamed tensions leading to disruption of public order.kambo said:
These videos are police property(?) and in connection with crimes, evidence that seems bound to existing rules for handling of evidence. The public ultimately has a right to this information but not above the court's mandate to provide a fair trial for all possible defendants.
In some cases the videos are not conclusive or could even be misleading.
This will get sorted in time. People are too accustomed to instant gratification.
Right now I'd like to slow the increasing murder rate first.
JR
M
mattiasNYC
Guest
Well your precious Chicago PD decided to withhold video evidence of the shooting of Laquan McDonald for over a year,. Not only that, but cops deleted footage from a nearby Burger King. Not only that, but supposedly this Laquan posed a threat.
So what happens when a court finally tells the police to make the video public? Same day as it's released a police officer gets charged with murder. What a coincidence huh? Same day.
I mean, does anybody really believe they ever had the intent to indict that officer who shot this kid 16 times 6 seconds after leaving his police car? A kid that posed no threat? Does anybody really believe the PD doesn't intentionally cover up misdeeds by officers to cover their behinds?
"22 police shootings in Chicago this year — and no audio in any"
Just another 'batch' of bad apples with commanders covering up the tracks.
Never a policy.
Never a pattern.
Just a bunch of individual incidents.
Just like Marco Proano's shooting of a bunch of kids. Happened in 2013. Video released in 2015. Indictment in 2016. In Chicago.
So what happens when a court finally tells the police to make the video public? Same day as it's released a police officer gets charged with murder. What a coincidence huh? Same day.
I mean, does anybody really believe they ever had the intent to indict that officer who shot this kid 16 times 6 seconds after leaving his police car? A kid that posed no threat? Does anybody really believe the PD doesn't intentionally cover up misdeeds by officers to cover their behinds?
"22 police shootings in Chicago this year — and no audio in any"
Just another 'batch' of bad apples with commanders covering up the tracks.
Never a policy.
Never a pattern.
Just a bunch of individual incidents.
Just like Marco Proano's shooting of a bunch of kids. Happened in 2013. Video released in 2015. Indictment in 2016. In Chicago.
M
mattiasNYC
Guest
And then there are all the videos of cops telling people it's illegal to film them although it's entirely legal, in several cases subsequently arresting the people filming, followed by silly charges, followed by dropping all charges (!).
Like Jason Disisto in NYC that got booked for "obstructing governmental administration, disorderly conduct, and resisting arrest." after the officer said he "lunged and tried punching" the officer when in fact he did nothing but film police questionable police interaction (the cop was touching his female friend) after which they destroyed his phone and arrested him.
Surveillance video saved him from becoming another crime statistic since all charges were obviously dropped. Yet more bad apples.
Like Jason Disisto in NYC that got booked for "obstructing governmental administration, disorderly conduct, and resisting arrest." after the officer said he "lunged and tried punching" the officer when in fact he did nothing but film police questionable police interaction (the cop was touching his female friend) after which they destroyed his phone and arrested him.
Surveillance video saved him from becoming another crime statistic since all charges were obviously dropped. Yet more bad apples.
