It's the Climate, Stupid.

[abbey road d enfer]

This is defeatist.

Not defeatist, realistic. Global warming is the result of several factors, one of them is anthropogenic, but it's not the major factor. The cycle is in a phase where temperature will rise, whatever we do (or stop doing). Even if the human race was eradicated, temperature would increase.

Humans could destroy most life on the planet and plunge the world into a decades-long nuclear winter in a mere 20 minutes.

I agree.

  To say we lack the capacity to greatly change the planet isn't correct.

I didn't say that, I said we don't have the capacity to reverse global warming; we could slow it down, we can accelerate it for sure, but there's no way we can stop it, just like we don't have the capacity to stop thunder or tsunami.

  If you are saying we lack the collective will to act, then I agree.

Collective will implies consensus. Consensus cannot be achieved when opinions are manipulated and dominated by dogma.

 

[Matador]

Global warming is the result of several factors, one of them is anthropogenic, but it's not the major factor... Even if the human race was eradicated, temperature would increase.

This isn't what is shown between modelling and past observations.  If anything, it is highly likely that subtracting the effects of humans would result in near-term cooling of around -0.2C over the next 5 decades, with no net increase over the past century.

From https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2896?foxtrotcallback=true:

Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

 

[desol]

https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-natural-cycle.htm
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/
https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

"According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the current scientific consensus is that long and short-term variations in solar activity play only a very small role in Earth’s climate. Warming from increased levels of human-produced greenhouse gases is actually many times stronger than any effects due to recent variations in solar activity."

 

[JohnRoberts]

What another conspiracy!  I thought they had worked it out all on their own!

If you believe that I have some swampland to sell you. Hint: their teachers are pushing that agenda.

When I start seeing charts going exponential, common sense tells me it ain't natural, its Man made.

the charts sure are "man made".... (is that sexist?). 

You're as old as me JR, are you saying that the weathers just the same as when you were a kid?

DaveP

Weather and global climate are not the same thing. When I was a kid they didn't name every storm, and send out TV crews to stand in the rain/wind and whatever.

Here's another global warming curve ball... there are active volcanos beneath the Antarctic ice sheet, that could cause some obvious warming (alternately volcanos can also cause global cooling when they spray dust and rock into the upper atmosphere blocking/reflecting sunlight. ) 

There are too many different moving parts in this complex relationship to accept overly simplistic explanations. While marshaling political sentiment requires exactly that (dumbing it down).

JR

PS: I have reduced my personal energy footprint, and all the NG recovered by fracking has lowered out national carbon emissions.  As I have shared before my local "clean coal" power plant is burning NG.

 

[living sounds]

not an argument but an observation/judgement, please keep this civil.

This is one of the longer running discussions around here, I suspect Ian is weary of repeating himself as am I.

JR

Well, I didn't mean to be rude and I said I was sorry (to have to put it that bluntly), but this was also a reference to the thread's title on my part.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I caught up with the Swedish girls impassioned plea to the UN ,
an award wining performance if ever I saw one ,holy jaysus ,it was Iike Hansel and Gretel meets  the Exorcist 
Best thing for her is get herself over to  Hollywood for a few auditions ,
Greta Thunberg ,Actor and Activist 

I accidentally saw a few seconds of that... pass.

If you want to respect some young people how about the young protesters in Hong Kong?  Their personal liberty (and safety) is definitely at risk. So far China has been moderate in their response to the protests, but I expect them to want this settled by their "China National day" celebrating 70 year anniversary, Oct 1.

The next week or so could get interesting for HK.

JR

@Living Sounds, the thread title is word play recalling the old political rant "it's the economy stupid" .  I appreciate that we can have mostly respectful and thoughtful discussions here, while I am hearing some old global warming screed re-surfacing (urgent, existential crisis, only ten years away, etc.) 

 

[DaveP]

No-one seems to have picked up on this topic in the way it was intended.

It was paraphrasing Clinton's "It's the economy stupid!

So it was about how things have changed since the last election in 2016.

If Trump was really smart he would have jumped ship on this and got behind it,  he could have stolen the Dems clothes, but it looks like more of the same from him.  The only way he will get another term is if the Dems select someone with no charisma.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

No-one seems to have picked up on this topic in the way it was intended.

It was paraphrasing Clinton's "It's the economy stupid!

actually James Carville (a Clinton campaign advisor) said it, but it gained traction in the press and was widely repeated.

So it was about how things have changed since the last election in 2016.

People generally vote their personal self interest. We are enjoying record low unemployment for multiple demographics so unless the economy tanks that is a non-issue.

If Trump was really smart he would have jumped ship on this and got behind it,  he could have stolen the Dems clothes, but it looks like more of the same from him.  The only way he will get another term is if the Dems select someone with no charisma.

DaveP

I have shared this before but President Trump is not a politician in the normal sense.  If he embraced climate change, the opposition would push some different wedge issue.  This is just typical partisan anti-trumpism whatever that is.

Voters are more likely to be affected by gasoline prices than fears of rising seawater.

JR

PS: Al Gore's 2006 film claimed that unless the world takes drastic measures we would reach a point of no return in 10 years (2016?).  At least AOC is giving us 12 years until the end of the world, but I see a familiar pattern... be very afraid. 

 

[cyrano]

Voters are more likely to be affected by gasoline prices than fears of rising seawater.

Yep, that's why that Saudi oil plant that was attacked with a homemade rocket shows hardly any damage.

It's long-range, but relatively harmless. Doesn't that sound odd?

 

[cyrano]

No-one seems to have picked up on this topic in the way it was intended.

True. Didn't see that at all. Sorry, Dave.

 

[living sounds]

No-one seems to have picked up on this topic in the way it was intended.

It was paraphrasing Clinton's "It's the economy stupid!

Obviously, I got it. I think Clinton had a sign on his desk to remind him.

 

[living sounds]

PS: Al Gore's 2006 film claimed that unless the world takes drastic measures we would reach a point of no return in 10 years (2016?).  At least AOC is giving us 12 years until the end of the world, but I see a familiar pattern... be very afraid. 

We might be past that tipping point, but if we let people give in to dispair things would get even worse even faster. At some point technological solutions may need to be added to the mix to prevent the worst from actually happening.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Yep, that's why that Saudi oil plant that was attacked with a homemade rocket shows hardly any damage.

Huh?

It's long-range, but relatively harmless. Doesn't that sound odd?

Odd? The attacks knocked out more than 5 million barrels a day of production, hardly harmless...

The precision munitions do not look like some "homemade" Houthi rockets.

I have already posted my best guess,,, but prudence is indicated in the ME where some bad actors may be inviting attack to gain international sympathy for sanctions relief... it looks like the sanctions may be working. 

JR

 

[cyrano]

Huh? Odd? The attacks knocked out more than 5 million barrels a day of production, hardly harmless...

The plant was stopped. The attack caused only a fire, that was stopped hours later... Info from people in the field, BTW. Not MSM propaganda.

The precision munitions do not look like some "homemade" Houthi rockets.

The Houthi DIY rockets in the previous attack, months ago, weren't stopped by the multi-billion $ US anti rocket defense system. They caused little damage to the airport they were aimed at, but did a lot of damage to Saudi egos. The explanation why the rockets bypassed the shield, made me giggle. "There were too many..." So now every enemy knows what to do.

This attack came from Iran. That's what Trump tweeted less than half an hour after. Iran's rockets don't go that far. So either it's a different concoction, or Trump was lying. If it's a different make of rocket, it's DIY by the Iranians. If not, it's DIY by the Houthi's.

I have already posted my best guess,,, but prudence is indicated in the ME where some bad actors may be inviting attack to gain international sympathy for sanctions relief... it looks like the sanctions may be working. 

Yep. GE will be saved from an Emron like end while selling six nuclear plants to the Saudi's. En Saudi's uranium will be processed by US nuclear industry. No jobs, but lots of money and some bombs...

Wonder how Israel feels about having another nuclear power in the ME? Or are they just waiting to get their part of the deal: some Saudi uranium?

 

[cyrano]

It seems I'm not the only one with questions as to what's happening in Saudi-Arabia:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-The-Saudis-Are-Lying-About-Their-Oil-Production.html

 

[ruffrecords]

We might be past that tipping point, but if we let people give in to dispair things would get even worse even faster. At some point technological solutions may need to be added to the mix to prevent the worst from actually happening.

The arrogance of mankind never ceases to amaze me.

Cheers

Ian

 

[r2d2]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that the old order is on the way out?

Millions of kids around the world have taken over the initiative and the political priorities.

I feel some sympathy for politicians, they were never scientifically trained  so they have no intrinsic feel for the situation.  A background in economics and law does not prepare you for this new reality.  Trump is in an even worse state with a simple business background, he has absolutely no feel for what is happening around him.

A musician knows what chords go together in each key (D, G, A7, Bm)  An electronics guy knows Ohms law, a tube guy knows mu, gm and rp.  But ask a politician how much time do we have to do something and all they have are economics and procedure.

No wonder the kids are on the street.............. say goodbye to yesterday's men.

DaveP

Do you see "Quality" on the politicians of the latest 60 years  ?

Or only remote contralled "robots" by corporations  ?

There is a "Quality" president after Roosevelt ?
(why Truman ignored the Roosevelt human rights law 2 , "expansion" of the first ? …  "money" ?  )

What rights "they" have to destroy the planet and deny the right to life for the  new generations ?
(create the problems to sell $$$  then the solutions ?
like for example bury the trash collecting part of tax paid by citizens ,
and then charge them again with another tax  for clean up the trash landfills
because they pollute the aquifers ?
recycling the recovered garbage and pocket more money ?
…and the gas produced by organic waste …. ,
please do not tell me that they didn't know it !!!
otherwise all the Universities must be closed !!!!!
and all type of engineers sent to smash stones !!! )

The only one intelligent thing to do (i.m.h.o. but also so many others too)
from here to the "end" ,
is concentrate all the resources (minds and "tools")
for increase  Human Dignity + planet health
and all the "puzzle" pieces are directly related / connected and complementary ,
to guarantee a decent life quality to human race ,

before the expansion of the sun cook the planet ,
(about 500 millions years…. )
or another not " friendly" Meteor decide to land on our "garden"…
Next ice age apart , by the natural vertical axis oscillation cycle of the planet .

Peace to all.
ps:
The natural true legitimate right is that the  Universe is public space not private .

 

[DaveP]

I have sympathy for your view r2d2.

It has not passed me by that the most lucrative businesses to be in are the ones that promote Human Addiction.

Cigarettes, Alcohol,  Opoids,  Anti-Depressants, Anti- Anxiety meds,  on the medical level.  Gambling, Smart phones and Social Media on  the  mental health level.  Even Oil on the National level.  One gets the feeling that actual cures are kept quiet whilst trying to exploit the symptoms for as long as possible.

Ever thought it weird that you can get all kinds of anti-depressants, but new anti-biotics are very rare?

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

The plant was stopped. The attack caused only a fire, that was stopped hours later... Info from people in the field, BTW. Not MSM propaganda.

The fire was put out quickly preventing worse damage.

The Houthi DIY rockets in the previous attack, months ago, weren't stopped by the multi-billion $ US anti rocket defense system. They caused little damage to the airport they were aimed at, but did a lot of damage to Saudi egos. The explanation why the rockets bypassed the shield, made me giggle. "There were too many..." So now every enemy knows what to do.

The missile defense was pointed in the wrong direction to stop projectiles coming from Iran's direction.

Israel has an effective missile defense system (iron shield) that works against low altitude ground hugging projectiles shot at them. It is unclear that they would share that with the Saudi's but also sharing a common enemy makes strange bedfellows.  I think I read that US has beefed up old patriot defense systems in SA.

This attack came from Iran. That's what Trump tweeted less than half an hour after. Iran's rockets don't go that far. So either it's a different concoction, or Trump was lying. If it's a different make of rocket, it's DIY by the Iranians. If not, it's DIY by the Houthi's.

Yep. GE will be saved from an Emron like end while selling six nuclear plants to the Saudi's. En Saudi's uranium will be processed by US nuclear industry. No jobs, but lots of money and some bombs...

Enron? My brother worked at Enron but not trading energy (He designed land based power generation turbines.)

GE apparently now owns Hitachi,,, the nuclear power industry has fallen on hard times over recent years.

If the West allows Iran to get Nukes, that will open the door for several of Iran's regional enemies to nuke up too. I prefer nipping this game of nuclear proliferation dominos in the bud. 

Wonder how Israel feels about having another nuclear power in the ME? Or are they just waiting to get their part of the deal: some Saudi uranium?

Israel is mainly trying to survive, surrounded by neighbors trying to kill them (won't even put them on a map). Odd how regional politics is driving old enemies to buddy up with Israel these days. 

JR

 

[Gold]

Odd how regional politics is driving old enemies to buddy up with Israel these days. 

If there is one thing that keeps the status quo and enemies agreeing, it's the Palestinians. All sides use them as a pawn and don't think twice about screwing them over. Isreal and the Saudi's have had a good relationship for decades. Iran is a thorn in both their sides.