Live and let live

[AnalogPackrat]

Lots of baby boomers have left the work force after covid. They would rather retire early than work to the normal retirement age. What a lazy generation!!

I'm Gen X. Retired last year after 29+ years in high tech. I worked hard, lived within my means, saved, invested, and am able to support myself. I've never taken a dime of unemployment or "stimulus" money and I never will. I was out of work for 4 months about a decade back. Cut my expenses and searched for the next job. Ended up doing independent contracting for a couple of years before moving back to corporate employment.

I was taught to pay my own way and not depend on government support and that I will always do. As my elderly parents (silent generation) need assistance, we are here to support them. They also will not require government support. My Dad just retired last year after two careers and 55 years of work. He would have kept on had my mother not been diagnosed with Alzheimer's.

Your world view is warped. It isn't lazy to retire if you've earned it. Plus you have no idea what other people are doing with their "free" time after retirement.

 

[john12ax7]

I thought the /s was implied.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

There has been a decades long growing imbalance between labor and capital. Being a business owner is the best way to get ahead in the modern economy. I/we might not quite understand tik tok, but they are essentially running a business, and they deserve some credit for creating a new type of business.

And when the fad of "internet influencers" fades away what will these "business owners" do for a living?

Problem is, you can't have an economy with 100% of the people business owners. You need employees too, which is why I really don't understand the disdain some have for them.

I have no disdain for employees. I was one for decades.

When young people say they can't get by as employees....older generations complain and call them lazy. When young people invent a new type of business to escape the rat race....older generations complain and call them lazy.

There's the rub. It isn't that "they can't get by," it's that they refuse to adjust their expectations to reality. They want instant gratification, a new phone every year or two, expensive food, to live in the fanciest apartment, and on and on.

Here's a great example of this entitled, spoiled brat attitude:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...ompanys-reported-return-office-plan-rcna44156
And more:

https://time.com/6111245/young-workers-quitting/
https://news.yahoo.com/1-300-york-times-staffers-135737898.html
Lazy. Entitled. Victim mentality.

 

[grid_stopper]

although i know better than to venture into these threads- I work for a tech company, and the youngest here are some of the hardest working ive ever had the privilege of working with, and will further say that most of these news articles are fairly sensationalist/used to work people on either side of the aisle up and dont really represent the majority of people. young people today face an absurd amount of challenges that werent even fathomable decades ago, is it any wonder that some are having trouble with that?

 

[john12ax7]

There was recently trillions of dollars pumped into the economy. A lot went into inflating assets, stocks, bonds, real estate. So asset owners got gifted stimulus money. It was perhaps the greatest transfer of wealth in history, from the young and the poor (those who don't own assets), to the old and the rich (those who do own assets). To top it off it has now caused a regressive tax in the form of inflation.

So who exactly are the entitled ones? Who are taking out more than they put in? Sure we might not understand some choices others make, but that doesn't invalidate the genuine headwinds they face. Is it too much to admit the advantages some have been given? Is it too much to have compassion for those who are struggling?

 

[JohnRoberts]

Lots of baby boomers have left the work force after covid. They would rather retire early than work to the normal retirement age. What a lazy generation!!

those slackers...

There was recently trillions of dollars pumped into the economy. A lot went into inflating assets, stocks, bonds, real estate. So asset owners got gifted stimulus money. It was perhaps the greatest transfer of wealth in history, from the young and the poor (those who don't own assets), to the old and the rich (those who do own assets). To top it off it has now caused a regressive tax in the form of inflation.

IMO your economic theory is lacking.

The major asset inflation occurred after the credit collapse in 2007/8 to bail out all the homeowners who got "liar loan" mortgages that were undewater. While the fed did not take their foot off the liquidity pedal until recently. They are just now withdrawing liquidity (letting bonds roll off).

The literal gifting of stimulus money was a covid thing paying people not to work. Economic incentives 101.

The recent burst of inflation is due to this administration's excessive spending. Even some democratic economists are admitting that relationship out loud.

So who exactly are the entitled ones? Who are taking out more than they put in? Sure we might not understand some choices others make, but that doesn't invalidate the genuine headwinds they face. Is it too much to admit the advantages some have been given? Is it too much to have compassion for those who are struggling?

Enough of this victim (grievance) mentality... just another strategy to create discord.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

although i know better than to venture into these threads- I work for a tech company, and the youngest here are some of the hardest working ive ever had the privilege of working with,

Not my business, but I do wonder whether you were in the workforce 20 years ago or more. What is the time frame for "...hardest working I've ever had the privilege...?"

and will further say that most of these news articles are fairly sensationalist/used to work people on either side of the aisle up and dont really represent the majority of people.

I posted links that contained hard data as well.

young people today face an absurd amount of challenges that werent even fathomable decades ago,

Examples?

is it any wonder that some are having trouble with that?

I do wonder because I see fewer challenges than past generations.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

There was recently trillions of dollars pumped into the economy.

Not necessary had the lock downs ended once the curve was bent and the true risks better understood (summer of 2020). But the party of fear controlled the agenda in CA, NY, NJ, CDC, NIH, etc.

A lot went into inflating assets, stocks, bonds, real estate.

Stocks? Maybe Amazon and Walmart, but not most stocks. I invest in bond funds. Lost 25% during the pandemic and after. Real estate gains mean nothing unless the property is sold at which point capital gains taxes are owed (pumping money into the broken and bloated federal machine).

And remember all those small businesses that were ruined? If they owned their properties they got screwed and had to sell. If they rented/leased the property owner lost their income. I see empty storefronts all over now. And what about the eviction moratorium? What do you think that did to rental property owners?

So asset owners got gifted stimulus money.

Hardly. Some businesses got help to stay open and to pay employees.

It was perhaps the greatest transfer of wealth in history, from the young and the poor (those who don't own assets), to the old and the rich (those who do own assets).

The transfer happened when government, often unelected bureaucrats, got to decide what businesses were "essential" or not. Governor Newsom's businesses were allowed to stay open. Amazon, Walmart, and other huge companies made the most gains as smaller local competitors were eliminated, many permanently.

To top it off it has now caused a regressive tax in the form of inflation.

Yes. Government "help" often has huge nasty side effects that last decades.

So who exactly are the entitled ones? Who are taking out more than they put in?

Not people who worked and paid their own way and were able to retire.

Sure we might not understand some choices others make, but that doesn't invalidate the genuine headwinds they face.

You haven't named anything specific other than costs of housing and education. We've discussed the policies and decisions that are the lion's share of increased college costs.

A large part of housing increase is the increased size of the average home and the improved amenities that people currently expect. Average home size when I grew up was around 1600sq ft and families were slightly larger on average then than now. Current average home size is 2400sq ft or more. The first home my parents bought was 1400sq ft and had a window AC in the dining area and baseboard electric heat. We had an electric range and the washer/dryer were in the garage. There was a single black and white TV in the den. That was it. All of that extra stuff people "have to have" costs more. Big surprise.

Is it too much to admit the advantages some have been given? Is it too much to have compassion for those who are struggling?

Such it has always been. I have compassion for people who truly struggle (which to me means exerting effort and making sacrifices). I have little for people who make their own challenges by outspending their income on luxuries (iPhones, multiple TVs, Starbucks every day, going out for meaks regularly, fast internet and big TV packages or streaming services, new car...). Most people here seem to have no idea what previous generations lived without.

 

[pucho812]

Most of the challenges the younger generation faces are either self made challenges or government created. For example cost of housing and education are government created expenses. Education in particular got out of hand because of government guaranteed loans for school to study whatever you wanted. No wonder colleges and university got expensive, easy money. Things like gas are a challenge to us all, on average in California I pay 2 dollars more a gallon then the rest of the u.s. this is mostly in taxes the state adds on. Same with housing, the state constantly adds more to taxes which in turn landlords pass on to their renters.
Then you have self made challenges. Living beyond means to impress god knows who. While things like Starbucks daily add up to expensive it shouldn’t take a genius to decide if they need to budget better.

 

[john12ax7]

IMO your economic theory is lacking.

All of my economics professors would probably disagree with that opinion.

The major asset inflation occurred after the credit collapse in 2007/8

That was bad too and ongoing, but more recent was worse. Just look at the Fed balance sheet, case shiller, S&P (you need to account for a few other factors with this one, earnings and such), then vs now.

to bail out all the homeowners who got "liar loan" mortgages that were undewater.

So we will just ignore the banks roll in that and all their bailouts and golden parachutes?

The literal gifting of stimulus money was a covid thing paying people not to work.

So we will just ignore that most of the PPP money didn't actually go to workers?

The recent burst of inflation is due to this administration's excessive spending.

So we will just ignore things like M2? I don't know of any reputable economists that would put inflation 100% on Biden. Milton Friedman would certainly disagree.

 

[Dan Kennedy]

Lots of baby boomers have left the work force after covid. They would rather retire early than work to the normal retirement age. What a lazy generation!!

I'm 67, still work 10hrs a day. 6 days a week. Still teach young people. I'm conservative.

 

[john12ax7]

I'm 67, still work 10hrs a day. 6 days a week. Still teach young people. I'm conservative.

Hi Dan, that comment was not meant to be taken literally / seriously. It was said in jest in response to other comments about the younger generation being lazy.

 

[Matador]

I'm 67, still work 10hrs a day. 6 days a week. Still teach young people. I'm conservative.

I for one am glad you are still in the game. The MP-2 is still one of my favorite pieces of DIY kit!

 

[AnalogPackrat]

SPY (a good proxy for the US market) hit a low around 220 in March 2020, and then proceeded to more than double when the Fed money printer kicked in. Even smaller stocks joined the party, I posted an investing thread back then and even mentioned a relatively unknown stock I was buying. It did 5x (I sold too early). So it definitely wasn't just places like Amazon and Walmart.

Sure. But where are they now? Irrational exuberance is not a good basis for investing. I don't day trade. Rarely have I held any stock for under a year. I don't claim to be a financial genius, but what I've done has worked for me over the long term including the dotcom crash, the 2008 crash, etc.

That implies you were in longer duration? They did quite well the first few months of 2020. But really had nowhere to go but down when rates got to almost 1%, too much interest rate risk. Unless you thought rates would go negative, the best you could do at that point was dump them, which many did, the Fed was buying. Some corporations issued bonds at the low rates for the sole purpose of buying back stock, which in turn raised EPS and share prices. A bit sneaky, but also savvy as it was a boon for shareholders at the expense of bondholders.

I have a diverse portfolio. At my age it seemed prudent to start moving some to more conservative funds. Sometime around 2018 is when I got into some bond ETFs. Not a large percentage of my portfolio.

Have you not heard of HELOC? As real estate inflated many residential owners rushed to take out equity at ultra low rates which then was used to buy even more real estate or other investments. Commercial owners greatly expanded their portfolio of holdings with leveraged cheap money. The 1031 party raged on while first time buyers got squeezed out.

In the area where I lived in CA many people started buying vacation homes around Tahoe, Wine Country, Sonoma Coast, etc. but they mostly used stock/RSU from what I could tell. AirBnB and liberal policies on short-term rentals in established residential neighborhoods made this attractive and will eventually negatively impact some areas (no one wants to live near the AirBnB party house).

Another trend that is also ruining older neighborhoods is the AHU fad. Cities like San Jose now allow small apartments to be built on occupied residential lots allegedly to ease the housing crisis. I have friends in the Willow Glen neighborhood who are now surrounded by these on adjacent parcels. Parking was already problematic on the narrow streets there, now it's insane. Their property value will take a hit.

You do realize that many bond funds invest in US debt? By buying bonds you are lending money to enable the broken and bloated federal machine. And given that real rates are currently negative you are actually paying them for that privilege. A bit of a strange choice.

Diverse investments aren't a strange choice. I have and probably will continue to make some investment mistakes. I take responsibility for them. On average I've done fine. As a result I am completely debt-free as of February.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Apologies to all if I created too much of veer. These days I spend a good bit of time doing investing (if that wasn't apparent).

I have kept business news playing in the background for the last couple decades. I cut back on CNBC (the NBC affiliate) because it was too partisan, but the Fox business channel is only minority "pure" business news, with partisan screeds dominating almost everything these days.

All of my economics professors would probably disagree with that opinion.

the classic economist joke goes if you ask 2 economists you will get three opinions about any question. I call it a soft science because we rarely get un-conflicted experiments. The economy surely is not simple. Congrats on getting a blessing from all your economics professors.

That was bad too and ongoing, but more recent was worse. Just look at the Fed balance sheet, case shiller, S&P (you need to account for a few other factors with this one, earnings and such), then vs now.

The central bankers were lulled into decades of too easy money (liquidity) because of technology that advanced productivity keeping inflation in check. For years they failed to meet their 2% target I don't trust simple answers for complex problems it appears that COVID, supply chain disruptions, and incentives that discouraged job seeking, are all responsible and probably more.

So we will just ignore the banks roll in that and all their bailouts and golden parachutes?

After we kill all the lawyers we can start killing the bankers. Again IMO blaming the bankers for the 2007/8 credit collapse ignore the failure of regulators to appreciate the questionable valuations of bundled (liar loan) mortgages. These bundled securities (cough) generated massive profits, that fueled huge demand for even more bundles, driving even more too easy lending. Classic positive feedback bubble scenario.

So we will just ignore that most of the PPP money didn't actually go to workers?

I closed down my business and forgot to ask for government support....

So we will just ignore things like M2? I don't know of any reputable economists that would put inflation 100% on Biden. Milton Friedman would certainly disagree.

I think it was President Truman who said the buck stops with him... The Fed chief and central bankers serve at President Biden's pleasure, the secretary of treasury, etc. Not to mention massive spending by congress.

Of course Inflation is simply defined by money supply chasing a finite amount of goods.

[edit] There are other factors contributing to inflation. The Biden administration hit the ground shutting down fossil fuel projects (like Keystone pipeline). Recently they found a new way to shut down already granted permits, by agreeing to settle lawsuits by activist environmentalists against existing drilling projects. The "inflation reduction act" (cough) is a climate change bill. [/edit]

Actions by this administration have contributed to inflation, and they keep on doing the same, even while trying to take a victory lap.

Just like when Dorothy saw the wizard working the levers, he said "Ignore the man behind the curtain, nothing to see here". Less than 60 days to go until the vote, we'll see if the gaslighting works.

JR

PS; OK stock market guy... what do you think about bonds from here? TIPS?

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Latest bond news...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/g...-says-deutsche-bank-11664210332?mod=home-page

 

[JohnRoberts]

I was looking at maybe buying some treasury bills today... 3-4% for a few years is not cra cra to park dead money.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

I was looking at maybe buying some treasury bills today... 3-4% for a few years is not cra cra to park dead money.

JR

Then you're only losing 4-5%...

 

[JohnRoberts]

IBONDS at something like 9.6% are limited to purchase only 10k/year and not easily traded.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

I have a short list of several decent companies paying 5-7% dividends.

I just looked at their stock charts and they look horrible. The technical term for buying those is called trying to catch a falling knife.

The market probably won't bottom until next year, but I expect lots of volatility between now and then.

JR