bluebird

The Middle East Friendship Chart
« on: December 03, 2015, 04:29:32 PM »
For those of you who are a little confused about who hates/likes who in the middle east, here's a chart I found. If you go to the website you can click on icons to get a little more info about the relationships.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html

« Last Edit: December 03, 2015, 04:34:05 PM by bluebird »


bluebird

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2015, 04:30:17 PM »
And the geography.

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2015, 06:24:08 PM »
Chart seems a little off. I see at least three places in that ISIS column that should have a big green smiley

JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2015, 08:53:48 PM »
Chart seems a little off. I see at least three places in that ISIS column that should have a big green smiley

Make your own chart and be prepared to defend your positions...

The history and interrelationships between the sundry groups in the regions is more than a little complicated. Common enemies make so may strange bedfellows, I'd hate to see the children at the next family reunion.   :o

JR
John Roberts
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Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2015, 01:33:33 PM »
Well I don't have any "positions" so to speak, and I'm definitely not gonna pretend that I can even begin to understand the complexities of all of the different groups in the region. Maybe I came across a little more matter-of-fact than intended, my comment was meant to be a little tongue in cheek, no intentions to offend anyone. And I definitely know nothing first hand.

All I have is my opinions as an outside observer, and conclusions I have drawn from what I have seen. And if you follow the money, the weapons, the oil, the thousands of cheering fans, I tend to believe the things that guys like Putin are saying a little more than Mr. O and his crew. It appears to me that ISIS is a tool that is being used by some governments to disrupt and remove others. And this tool is growing wildly out of control.

They were armed and trained to fight the Russians in Afghanistan way back when, armed and trained some more to help out in Libya more recently. Somehow they even had the time to set up a new national bank and a new national oil company in the middle of gathering the ropes to drag what's-his-name through the street. I wonder if any/how many conversations touched on that subject in all of those disappeared e-mails. "Oh they think they can have their own state-run bank, AND charge no interest?!?! Get some more firepower in here!! Call Lord Rothschild!!"

Than there's that dang Assad, been blocking that natural gas pipeline for years. That pipeline that would run to that one country and help them effectively knock out Russia as the energy titan in the region. Yeah that one country of our best buddies where all of those "Iraqi" and "Afghan" guys came from who stole those planes and melted those buildings, the same one who is supposedly heavily implicated in those classified 28 pages of the 9-11 report according to the senator who headed the commission and others who have seen the whole document and said so, even on national tv. http://video.foxnews.com/v/4170984577001/bob-graham-fbi-covering-up-saudi-govt-connection-to-911/?#sp=show-clips

I saw one of our Russian friends here on the forum had questioned in another thread, "What is the United States real intentions in Syria?". It is interesting to me that the Russian military was able to inflict more damage to IS in a couple days than the US or NATO has in a couple of years. Was that jet that got blowed-up perhaps targeting that long line of stolen oil trucks? I dunno. I can't help but think that everything keeps ultimately tracing to some unspoken proxy war that is being waged with Russia, economically and militarily. And we sure are burning through that "7 countries" list that was written so long ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_Sw

Whatever might actually be true in this whole situation,  I have a hard time believing many truths are coming from the mouths of our elected officials or their media wing. But every now and then they do give us some interesting tidbits that seem to deserve attention.

Like this psycho-lady going on tv and admitting to the long term use of radical militants in intelligence and military operations here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A__vw5Vuwp0

Or like this recently declassified pentagon document, in which it is acknowledged  that continuing to arm terrorists could possibly get a little out of control: http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf

Anyway, just backing up some of my thoughts per your suggestion, without spending all day digging up links to the apparently abundant information that goes against any of the garbage narrative that we are constantly bombarded with. I don't feel I am prepared to debate this much more because there are many people on this forum ,like you John, who are way smarter and more experienced than I am, and many here have a much closer look at things than I possibly could at this point in time. I'm just trying to make sense of all the chatter I sift through. Plus I think my tinfoil hat was fitted a little too snug this morning, giving me a headache.

JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2015, 04:11:17 PM »
Well I don't have any "positions" so to speak, and I'm definitely not gonna pretend that I can even begin to understand the complexities of all of the different groups in the region. Maybe I came across a little more matter-of-fact than intended, my comment was meant to be a little tongue in cheek, no intentions to offend anyone. And I definitely know nothing first hand.

All I have is my opinions as an outside observer, and conclusions I have drawn from what I have seen. And if you follow the money, the weapons, the oil, the thousands of cheering fans, I tend to believe the things that guys like Putin are saying a little more than Mr. O and his crew. It appears to me that ISIS is a tool that is being used by some governments to disrupt and remove others. And this tool is growing wildly out of control.
+1
Quote
They were armed and trained to fight the Russians in Afghanistan way back when,
OBL was famously a US supported Muhajideen fighter against Russia in afghanistan roughly through the 1980s.  Note: muhajideen is kind of a generic term for jihadists.  So it is unclear to me is there are straight lines between old afghan groups and modern muhajideen while there are similar named groups in over a dozen regions all around the world.
Quote
armed and trained some more to help out in Libya more recently. Somehow they even had the time to set up a new national bank and a new national oil company in the middle of gathering the ropes to drag what's-his-name through the street. I wonder if any/how many conversations touched on that subject in all of those disappeared e-mails. "Oh they think they can have their own state-run bank, AND charge no interest?!?! Get some more firepower in here!! Call Lord Rothschild!!"
Libya was an example of the US leading from behind... I suspect so they can blame somebody else for a poor outcome. And that's what we have.
Quote
Than there's that dang Assad, been blocking that natural gas pipeline for years. That pipeline that would run to that one country and help them effectively knock out Russia as the energy titan in the region. Yeah that one country of our best buddies where all of those "Iraqi" and "Afghan" guys came from who stole those planes and melted those buildings, the same one who is supposedly heavily implicated in those classified 28 pages of the 9-11 report according to the senator who headed the commission and others who have seen the whole document and said so, even on national tv. http://video.foxnews.com/v/4170984577001/bob-graham-fbi-covering-up-saudi-govt-connection-to-911/?#sp=show-clips
The Saudi royal family is too busy trying trying to bribe their citizens into allowing them to stay in power, to pay attention to how that money gets used. Their desire to stay in power does not excuse their lax oversight of their own citizens, but does kind of explain it. 
Quote
I saw one of our Russian friends here on the forum had questioned in another thread, "What is the United States real intentions in Syria?". It is interesting to me that the Russian military was able to inflict more damage to IS in a couple days than the US or NATO has in a couple of years. Was that jet that got blowed-up perhaps targeting that long line of stolen oil trucks? I dunno. I can't help but think that everything keeps ultimately tracing to some unspoken proxy war that is being waged with Russia, economically and militarily. And we sure are burning through that "7 countries" list that was written so long ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RC1Mepk_Sw
That region has been a proxy war for decades. Syria has been a destabilizing force and proxy for Iran, Russia and others(?), destabilizing Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey (some with kurds based in Syria). These days the region is more dangerous than ever with friendly aircraft and not so friendly aircraft flying over the same dirt with Russia anti-aicraft batteries up and ready, and Turkey already splashing one Russian plane. .

If Russia did damage to ISIL it was by accident, or just to embarrass the US. ISIL is convenient for them to help justify their defense of the Assad regime.
Quote
Whatever might actually be true in this whole situation,  I have a hard time believing many truths are coming from the mouths of our elected officials or their media wing. But every now and then they do give us some interesting tidbits that seem to deserve attention.

Like this psycho-lady going on tv and admitting to the long term use of radical militants in intelligence and military operations here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A__vw5Vuwp0

Or like this recently declassified pentagon document, in which it is acknowledged  that continuing to arm terrorists could possibly get a little out of control: http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf

Anyway, just backing up some of my thoughts per your suggestion, without spending all day digging up links to the apparently abundant information that goes against any of the garbage narrative that we are constantly bombarded with. I don't feel I am prepared to debate this much more because there are many people on this forum ,like you John, who are way smarter and more experienced than I am, and many here have a much closer look at things than I possibly could at this point in time. I'm just trying to make sense of all the chatter I sift through. Plus I think my tinfoil hat was fitted a little too snug this morning, giving me a headache.
Understood and understandable...

I feel like we have let our best opportunities in the region slip away, and trying to dismiss ISIL as a threat just means we will have to deal with them later.

Good luck to us all, and good luck to the poor residents of the middle east who have to live in that cluster fsk of a neighboorhood.

JR
John Roberts
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JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2016, 01:47:12 PM »
For those not paying close attention to the deterioration in the middle east some recent events are worth noting.

Diplomatic relations have broken down between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The nominal reason for this is the saturday execution of a popular Shia cleric by (Sunni) Saudi Arabia (while they also executed a bunch of sunni terrorists at the same time). Iranian (shia) protesters in Tehran burned the Saudi embassy in response. 

While the differences are rooted in a split between two factions of the muslim faith over a thousand years ago, this also boils down to power and regional control. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia consider themselves the leader of the faith and the region.

This suspension of diplomatic relations could lead to more tension since many Shia followers from Iran annually visit religious sites in Saudi Arabia.  If these religious visits get interrupted due to unavailability of travel visas, that can increase sectarian tension even more.

While Iran and Saudi Arabia do not directly wage war on each other there are proxy conflicts all around the region. In Yemen Saudi coalition aircraft  "accidentally" hit the iranian embassy yesterday.

These proxy conflicts are in every hot region of the middle east. We don't need more fuel thrown on this fire. There seems to be consequences from doing nothing or doing too little. Taliban are feeling empowered in Afghanistan by our scheduled draw down there and getting more aggressive.

The only bright spot is recent Iraqi success at recapturing Ramadi from ISIL, but there is a lot more work to do there (Mosul, etc).  Syria still looks tangled up with no good solution in sight. ISIL is burning oil facilities in Libya (who still has two competing governments), etc.

With the world awash in oil, and Iran poised to open their spigots to increase world supply, this recent escalation is not reflecting in world oil prices. years ago, similar news would have caused oil futures to spike higher.  I guess the low information voters in the west are lulled into a sense of "no problem here" by their low domestic gas prices. 

Good luck world.

JR 



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Kingston

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2016, 07:45:38 PM »
At first you read it like Mordor and Middle Earth and it all seems to start to sound a bit ridiculous - but funny. And then you realise it's actual People and there's a war.

JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2016, 12:06:36 PM »
At first you read it like Mordor and Middle Earth and it all seems to start to sound a bit ridiculous - but funny. And then you realise it's actual People and there's a war.
Lots of great fiction is trying to teach a lesson or espouse a philosophy.  I read the lord of the rings back in the 60's while in bed sick with the flu.

JR


John Roberts
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JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2016, 04:26:18 PM »
Iran is currently holding some US sailors who were on a training mission in the middle of the Persian Gulf, had mechanical problems and drifted into iranian territory.

Hopefully they will do the right thing and release them quickly.

JR

[update] Sailors were released .. [/update]
« Last Edit: January 13, 2016, 10:33:23 AM by JohnRoberts »
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Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2016, 05:58:35 PM »
White monolithic cultures must perish according to Babara Spectre she said this  all the way back to 2012. Seems she knew something the Goyim did not.

Barbara Lerner Spectre calls for destruction of Christian European ethnic societies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFE0qAiofMQ

JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2016, 01:30:44 PM »
For those not paying attention to Syria it looks like Russian support has turned the tide for Assad against the anti-Assad forces. They are now so desperate that they will likely turn to guerilla (asymmetrical) warfare.  Only a matter of time and publicity before they lose what's left of western support and get re-branded as terrorist.

This loss of rebel territory back to Assad is what has driven the recent mass exodus from Syria (millions).

Cease fire proposal didn't mention Aleppo where Russia is still bombing anti-Assad rebel forces.  Their situation is desperate and unclear that the proposed cease fire will help them get aid.

Putin probably wants to finish the rebels off soon so he can restore Assad to power and pivot away. He has a muslim population at home that he doesn't want to inflame who don't like the visuals of him "fighting" (cough)  ISIL.

JR 
John Roberts
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JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #12 on: February 17, 2016, 05:22:28 PM »
Since it appears I am carrying on a monologue with myself...

Turkey fired artillery into northern Syria to thwart advances by the US backed Kurdish forces. 

Russia apparently bombed hospitals and civilian targets (Allepo?)  in support of Assad's fight against rebels (how about that cease fire).

Is anybody actually fighting ISIL (besides the Kurds and Iraqi special forces)? It looks like Turkey and Russia are pursuing their own different agendas.

JR
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ungifted

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2016, 03:27:23 PM »
John it's really a kind of monologue I think.
You are casting a western point of view, I can voice "the opinion of Russia".

First question is Syria a sovereign state? Are rebels homogeneous mass, or scattered groups with their own interests? Do they have a leader who can replace Assad? So who are terrorists and who are rebels in Syria? We support good "rebels" and hate "bad" Assad and his troops, or ...?
Here (in Russia) we see news showing the successes of the army of Syria (BTW the legitimate army of people who gave oath of office) and rebels groups who come to regular troops side and fight against ISIL, and Turkey striking at the territory of a neighboring sovereign state.  Assad troops will be at the border with Turkey soon and will close one of ISIL support source.

Why speculate opinions about what Russia is bombing civilian targets? BTW we've seen  movies showing US soldiers shooting civilians in Afghanistan. It's war, where people fear and kill because of fear. 

And refugees. Now I see, refugees in Europe are because the russians are bombing in Syria, right? What was the coalition forces doing  all this time I cannot understand. Fought with Assad, the legitimate head of Syria?

PS: As I've said it's a kind of "russian opinion" we can see in mass media. Obvious, It looks like everyone is pursuing their own different agendas. But there are questions...
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JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2016, 05:25:01 PM »
John it's really a kind of monologue I think.
You are casting a western point of view, I can voice "the opinion of Russia".
Welcome... my POV is western by definition and practice.
Quote
First question is Syria a sovereign state?
Yes, while Assad's government has been challenged from the inside by a civil war that up until fairly recently he was losing. Russia and Iran stepped in when it looked like the Assad government would fall (for different self interest reasons). .
Quote
Are rebels homogeneous mass, or scattered groups with their own interests?
These days they are looking more diffuse and scattered as Assad forces are retaking territory with Russian support.  Humanitarian support has only recently started reaching the region and still not in Aleppo where hospital was bombed after the cease fire announcement (AFAIK).

As I mentioned before as these anti-Assad opposition forces lose more territory and resources, they will likely turn to asymmetrical warfare  which will be indistinguishable from terrorism, and further erode any western support. 
Quote
Do they have a leader who can replace Assad?
Kind of academic at this point.  BTW Assad was blamed for being behind the car bombing of a popular moderate politician in Lebanon several years ago. Unlikely he would be any less viscous with internal Syrian politics.   
Quote
So who are terrorists and who are rebels in Syria? We support good "rebels" and hate "bad" Assad and his troops, or ...?
Yup one the several difficulties in Syria. Assad has been out of favor with the west so a number of countries have been supporting his opposition, hoping for a western friendly regime change. Kind of wishful thinking now especially in light of recent events. The difference between rebels and terrorists often depends on which side you are rooting for. 
Quote
Here (in Russia) we see news showing the successes of the army of Syria (BTW the legitimate army of people who gave oath of office) and rebels groups who come to regular troops side and fight against ISIL, and Turkey striking at the territory of a neighboring sovereign state.  Assad troops will be at the border with Turkey soon and will close one of ISIL support source.
Do you have access to any external news sources (BBC, Deutsch Welle, etc?)  Russian media is tightly controlled by Putin.

As I mentioned Turkey seems more concerned about Kurds gaining territory than ISIL and Turkey has some history with Russia. Russia seems more concerned about propping up Assad.  While they all dislike ISIL too, at the moment ISIL provides a convenient excuse for lots of ballistic military activity in the region.
Quote
Why speculate opinions about what Russia is bombing civilian targets? BTW we've seen  movies showing US soldiers shooting civilians in Afghanistan. It's war, where people fear and kill because of fear. 
Afghanistan is a weak state, that will require support for the indefinite future. Afghanistan would be even worse off now if Obama continued the rapid troop draw down as fast as he first announced. Apparently the west didn't learn anything from Russia's experience in Afghanistan or we would have never tried the surge-lite. Maybe Obama learned something from his too rapid withdrawal from Iraq that allowed ISIL to gain power from the not yet strong enough Iraqi government .

? I don't think it's a secret that Russia supports Assad. Back in June there were rumors that Assad regime airstrikes in Aleppo were done to support ISIL taking over the city from rebels. More recently Syrian army coordinated with Russians are pushing out ISIL (killed 70 of them in last week or so).

Curiously the Russian defense minister said that US aircraft (A10s) bombed the Aleppo hospitals...  :o

Turkey shelled a Kurdish held air strip in northern Syria. 

Quote
And refugees. Now I see, refugees in Europe are because the russians are bombing in Syria, right? What was the coalition forces doing  all this time I cannot understand. Fought with Assad, the legitimate head of Syria?
The refugees leaving Syria are fearing for their personal safety, while now old news Assad used poison gas on his own citizens. The regime attacks against the Syrian opposition are not very discriminate so many innocent citizens get hurt.
Quote
PS: As I've said it's a kind of "russian opinion" we can see in mass media. Obvious, It looks like everyone is pursuing their own different agendas. But there are questions...

Yup, more questions than answers. It is reality that everybody operates in their own self interest.

Turkey doesn't want a strong Kurdish region on their border. They have internal problems with Turkish kurds.

Russia wants Assad to remain in power so the Russian navy will keep access to the naval port in Syria. Russia doesn't want an Isil caliphate to succeed as that could incite muslim citizens at home.

Iran likes Assad because he was a useful puppet to help carry out their mischief in the region. 

It is hard to tell what the west actually wants... The west wants ISIL defeated but wants other people to do the heavy lifting.

Assad was a bad actor in the region, but unclear that his successor would be an obvious improvement. Assad is probably less bad than letting ISIL take over Syria. Any replacement for Assad would not be Assad. Look at Libya after a couple years without a real coalition government. If anything preventing ISIL from gaining territory in Libya may unify them together against that common enemy. 

The middle east is a mess... The US is more consumed by election year politics and people running for office offer hyperbolic over the top "too easy" sound bites when asked about the ME .  I won't hold my breath for thoughtful discussion or a coherent plan from the US any time soon.  US candidates are too busy slinging mud at each other when not arguing with the pope.

JR

PS: of course maybe I'm wrong...
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kambo

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2016, 11:26:11 PM »

The middle east is a mess...
JR


i promised myself not to get involved with political and legal arguments,
but yes,
The middle east is a mess...
i wonder why  :-X



JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2016, 10:11:06 AM »

The middle east is a mess...
JR


i promised myself not to get involved with political and legal arguments,
but yes,
The middle east is a mess...
i wonder why  :-X
Success has many fathers but failure is an orphan.

I expect there will be more candidates assigning blame than offering credible solutions for how to improve the situation(s) over there.
========
While not the middle east but China has militarized the disputed islands in the south china sea. First they built landing strips, now installed advanced surface to air missile battery.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/02/17/these-are-the-advanced-surface-to-air-missiles-china-just-apparently-deployed-into-the-south-china-sea/

Interesting times...

JR
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mattiasNYC

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2016, 01:34:57 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35681250

"Iran election: Reformists win all 30 Tehran seats"

Hopefully the supreme leader kicks the bucket real soon, and they can get some more progressive (leftist  :P) person in there....

JohnRoberts

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2016, 04:51:52 PM »
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35681250

"Iran election: Reformists win all 30 Tehran seats"

Hopefully the supreme leader kicks the bucket real soon, and they can get some more progressive (leftist  :P) person in there....
Yes that election was expected to be a proxy for Iran opening up more to the west, but the problem never was the citizens but the conservative religious leadership. In fact the candidates must be vetted by this leadership to even run. 

Large cities are generally more liberal than the rural areas so winning in Tehran is not much of a shock. For the record the gains appear to be made by "moderate reformists" (not liberal progressives).

I was very disappointed by the US administration's silence and lack of even verbal support during the riots after the last Iran election. Most other western leaders offered support to the street protesters.

It's early to see if the long game in this nuclear deal delivers what they promise. I remain skeptical but moderate reformist gains in this election is not a bad thing, so good for them.  I don't see Iran any less involved in Syria and the region, but we can always hope.  Thanks for an optimistic post.

JR

[edit- Speaking of the middle east... the wheels are falling off the bus in Afghanistan. Most other western nations have already withdrawn troops and the Afghanistan police force (the only real force keeping order there) are being killed off and are quitting in large numbers because of weak support. The financial support comes from western aid agencies, and they still seem willing, but the kinetic support comes primarily from US troops that have been drawn down in recent years.  This may hold together until after the election but the next president will need to fix this too... If Pres obama stuck to his original draw down schedule the sh__ would have hit the fan already, and he probably realized that mid process.  /edit]
« Last Edit: February 28, 2016, 05:02:18 PM by JohnRoberts »
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mattiasNYC

Re: The Middle East Friendship Chart
« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2016, 06:42:35 PM »
Yes that election was expected to be a proxy for Iran opening up more to the west, but the problem never was the citizens but the conservative religious leadership. In fact the candidates must be vetted by this leadership to even run. 

Yep. I think it's system is beyond idiotic actually.

I was very disappointed by the US administration's silence and lack of even verbal support during the riots after the last Iran election.

From CNN:

Quote
Obama said, "I am deeply troubled by the violence that I've been seeing on television. I think that the democratic process -- free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent -- all those are universal values and need to be respected."

and

Quote
Just over a week later, on June 23, after more and more images of violence came to light and amid some calls for the president to take a tougher stance, he did just that.

"The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, beatings and imprisonments of the last few days," the president said, adding that he strongly condemns "these unjust actions."