The Middle East Friendship Chart

[JohnRoberts]

This seems newsworthy. An Israeli air strike in Damascus Syria killed three generals in Iran’s Quds Force, the external military and intelligence service of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and four other officers, the Corps said, making it one of the deadliest attacks of the years long shadow war between Israel and Iran.

The attack in Damascus killed Mohamad Reza Zahedi, 65, a senior commander in the Quds Force. General Zahedi, Iranian officials said, oversaw the Quds Force’s covert military operations in Syria and Lebanon. Also killed in the strike were Gen. Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahimi, a deputy commander of Quds Forces in Lebanon and Syria and second in command to General Zahedi, and Gen. Hossein Aman Allahi, responsible for the Quds Force’s military operations in the region, according to Iranian media and an official statement from the Guards.

“This attack will have our fierce response,” Iran's ambassador to Syria said, according to Iranian media.

JR

 

[Matador]

Given Putin is blaming the ISIS attack in Russia on Ukraine, Israel should blame the Iran attack on Russia.

 

[cyrano]

Nothing matters much anymore. Iran attacked Israel, as was to be expected after the IDF hit several targets in Iran a while ago.

The war mongers got what they wanted. The rich will get richer and the poor will suffer worldwide.

 

[JohnRoberts]

I think everything still matters.

This is presumably retaliation for Israel killing quds force generals in Syria.

This new attack is noteworthy for Iran firing missiles and drones directly from their own territory instead of through proxies. This looks like an act of war but I doubt either side wants to escalate from here.

Interesting times.

JR

PS: I moved the above post into the appropriate thread here.

 

[cyrano]

PS: I moved the above post into the appropriate thread here.

Thanks. It's more appropriate here, of course.

This will escalate. It does every time. It was carefully planned, after all...

 

[JohnRoberts]

Thanks. It's more appropriate here, of course.

This will escalate. It does every time. It was carefully planned, after all...

This looks like an act of war but I doubt either side wants to escalate from here.

I am not as good at mind reading as some here, but this looks like Iran putting on a show for their home public to stir up support for the Iran government.

It was spending a lot of money for just a show, but I expect they were also probing Israel's defenses searching for any weakness, that they could exploit next time.

Money is important, and Iran is flush with cash thanks to relaxed sanctions supporting illegal energy sales to China, India, etc.

Just like we need to starve congress, we need to starve Iran, and Russia to prevent more bad behavior.

JR

 

[cyrano]

I am not as good at mind reading as some here, but this looks like Iran putting on a show for their home public to stir up support for the Iran government.

It probably is "saving face" for the ayatollahs.

It was spending a lot of money for just a show, but I expect they were also probing Israel's defenses searching for any weakness, that they could exploit next time.

The Iranians are farmers. They wouldn't spend it if it wasn't necessary in their mind. All part of the plan to give Israel a reason to escalate.

Money is important, and Iran is flush with cash thanks to relaxed sanctions supporting illegal energy sales to China, India, etc.

The Ayatollahs do not accept sanctions, even if it's hard for them to avoid them. Everybody likes to buy at discounted prices. All their neighbours will keep buying cheap crude. Even Saudi Arabia seems to have bought from Iran, though I couldn't find out the destination of the purchase. I can't see who would be happy with some crude without a label.

Just like we need to starve congress, we need to starve Iran, and Russia to prevent more bad behavior.

So you want a revolution. Or a civil war? The people against the government?

I don't think the powers that be will let you "disable" congress. Unless of course, there's one of them with delusions of grandeur. Do you see one with that character trait?

 

[Script]

All part of the plan to give Israel a reason to escalate.

Yes... although it should read
...to provoke escalation...
To them, since October and before that, it has never been about Palestine or Palestinians. It's been about provocation for very long now.

And it's sacrificial. Lucky for them, in Sinwar, they had found an avid subscriber:
"even 100,000 dead Palestinians are worth the cause" (-how convenient-).

 

[cyrano]

The propaganda machine is gearing up. Several of my YT and news accounts start showing more and more items about ferocious battles in the past. Even the war in Vietnam looks good to nationalists everywhere. Except perhaps in Asia? I'm even seeing Chinese nationalist propaganda movies pop up. About the Japanese occupation...

 

[JohnRoberts]

The propaganda machine(s) have already been going for a very long time. It has been expected (at least by me) that over time the horror of Oct 7 will fade away while the steady drip, drip, drip of anti-Israeli screeds will wear away on public opinion. The White House appears concerned about a group of anti-Israeli voters in Michigan.
===
Hamas seized around 240 hostages and brought them into Gaza on Oct 7. 112 have been returned alive. That leaves well over 100 that should be alive, but Hamas leaders say they can't provide 40 (including all the women, sick and older men) to satisfy the current cease fire negotiation. Estimates are that some 30+ hostages have died in captivity, but that leaves a number unaccounted for.

JR

PS: I wonder if they are using generative AI to make propaganda yet. Wars generally embrace new technology quickly.

 

[Script]

Clearly it is and has always been against Hamas' interest to release more/all hostages.

Still waiting for Palestinians to call for and act toward an end to this by turning against their self-proclaimed leaders.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is walking on thin ice (growing opposition) but I'm afraid they'll let him finish up with the dirty work before they ditch him.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Clearly it is and has always been against Hamas' interest to release more/all hostages.

It's hard to imagine a happy ending for Hamas from here, but time is on their side so delay is a good strategy.

Still waiting for Palestinians to call for and act toward an end to this by turning against their self-proclaimed leaders.

I wouldn't hold my breath for that. From an outside perspective Hamas is harmful to Palestinians, but they are not getting that objective perspective.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is walking on thin ice (growing opposition) but I'm afraid they'll let him finish up with the dirty work before they ditch him.

He was on thin ice before Oct 7, and that may have been factored into Iran's calculus but it is rare to change horses in the middle of a war. I doubt he wants to normalize allowing Iran to fire rockets and drones directly into Israel (from Iran). He has a number of ballistic options, perhaps sinking some Iranian assets in the red sea but physically away from Iranian territory..... or not.

We'll see.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

It's great that the "adults" are in charge again. Everything is so much better. Feels like 1979.

 

[fazer]

Peter zihans take on the drone strike from iran. Save face with pre announcement of the strike.

 

[cyrano]

Well, there is a gigantic untouched gas field on the Gaza coast. Several big oil companies have been trying to get the rights to drill it. Of course, the ownership is disputed. Apparently, the US govt has told the oil industry to hold off the dogs until they have a chance to sort things out...

There are also a lot of archeologic sites that haven't been researched yet. I'm not sure if there is overlap between the archeological sites and the gas field.

The Gaza coast possibly is one of the most interesting parts of the Mediterranean Sea.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Well, there is a gigantic untouched gas field on the Gaza coast. Several big oil companies have been trying to get the rights to drill it. Of course, the ownership is disputed. Apparently, the US govt has told the oil industry to hold off the dogs until they have a chance to sort things out...

There are also a lot of archeologic sites that haven't been researched yet. I'm not sure if there is overlap between the archeological sites and the gas field.

The Gaza coast possibly is one of the most interesting parts of the Mediterranean Sea.

Israel has discovered natural gas 1,500 meters beneath the Mediterranean back in 2022 about 81 miles west of Haifa. They settled a dispute with Lebanon over rights. I think Israeli gas exports may be interfered with by Gaza fighting.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

I see two significant differences associated with this recent attack compared to others over the years. Draw your own conclusions.

#1 Iran attacked Israel directly with hundreds of missiles and drones that originated from within Iran (an overt act of war), including from Iranian proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
===
#2 The attack was repulsed by a coordinated western coalition (US, UK, France) including several of Israel's Arab neighbors in the region. This is another first***, while some of those Arab neighbors were protecting themselves as many of the missiles failed well before reaching their targets.

One 7 year old girl was critically injured by intercepter shrapnel. Understandably the Arab defenders are not in any hurry to claim credit while this suggest movement in regional alignments wrt Israel vs. Iran.

JR

*** Some of that defensive cooperation from Arab neighbors is likely a direct result of the 2020 Abraham Accords.

 

[Iristone]

Please remember that Arabs are semitics too... I'm not a supporter of Hamas, but I don't think it's fair to call the dissidents of Zionist invaders "anti-semitic", as that would include quite a few Jews (say Haredis), too.