[squarewave]

I don't understand the other post about "paying for the dead" so I'm starting this thread as a general COVID-19 discussion. I'm sure people have thoughts. I do. None good.

[JohnRoberts]

Before we get all excited, this is not a pandemic like the 1917-18 Spanish Flu... yet. Search that oldie but goodie if you want to be scared.

This one seems different regarding incubation time which could be as long as 24 days, and some people test positive with no symptoms. Mortality so far is not as bad as others. We are still learning

Of course if you are old like me (or older), don't even get the common flu. You will notice many of the dead were 80YO...

JR

[squarewave]

Agreed. Let's not get too excited. Current numbers suggest mortality is ~2%. But note that that's IF you get it which depends greatly on your locale / activity. And most of those people have pre-existing conditions like cancer, heart disease, diabetes, another respiratory illness, etc. If you know such people, maybe try to make a point of appreciating them a little more while they're still around (regardless).

[Script]

Japanese government asks companies to adopt telework. A cultural revolution

[PRR]

> not a pandemic like the 1917-18 Spanish Flu... yet.

That was interesting, could happen again, and there's some echos today.

BTW, it is most likely the "Kansas Flu". Dunno how Spain got blamed. Most history suggests the first cases were at an Army base in Kansas, many men/boys from all over, but also a notorious dung-fire.

Because there was a war on, NObody published reports, thinking somehow ignorance was strategy. In the recent virus the guy who raised the alert was punished for blabbing (but also died of it).

This has interesting consequences. If you read Automotive Age for this period, you note a LOT of guys dying, no reason given.

The 1917 flu is "special" that it took-down young people even more than old farts like John and I. (I usually just suffer, but this winter I went to the Doc on Xmas eve to get my lungs looked at.) Yes, young soldiers were being housed close together in bad conditions, but many of the auto industries execs were young, and one on vacation in Florida. 

Another thing to worry about: it got to the Arctic and those people were buried in frozen ground. Which for whatever reason, is now thawing. Flu virus can survive decades of cold. It could come out again.

[Script]

Incubation period:
On average around seven days, at least two to three days, at most twelve days -- not 24 days. That was a falsely reported case they couldn't trace.

400.000 people in China would have to die of  this virus to make the fatality rate comparable to that of the common influenza.

Even surgical masks are not effective. PM2.5 for a 1.5nm virus -- no good. So no need to queue at stores or panic-buy online.

Instead get rid of the habit of touching your face a statistical 23 times per hour. It looks somewhat silly anyway

I absolutely wish media would also report on clinically diagnosed recoveries. Can look up on Wikipedia.

[squarewave]

Welp, might as well go full-apocalyptic. I think the bugs are going to be our downfall. Certainly not COVID-19. But eventually there's going to be some super-bug that we won't be able to shake off. The more people, the larger the Petri dish. The laws of nature cannot be suppressed with vaccines and antibiotics indefinitely.

[squarewave]

Even surgical masks are not effective. PM2.5 for a 1.5nm virus -- no good. So no need to queue at stores or panic-buy online.

Instead get rid of the habit of touching your face a statistical 23 times per hour. It looks somewhat silly anyway

Well I think the masks are in part to help stop you from touching your face. And they protect from nearby coughing / sneezing which is droplets. If you have a respiratory illness, you should wear a mask.

The official recommended procedures always include 1) wash your hands frequently and 2) don't touch your face.

[Script]

Yeah, but in my experience, people touch their faces even more often  when repeatedly adjusting the fit of the mask.

Yes, washing hands regularly. In Japan, hotels, stores & venues always have ethanol dispensers everywhere by default -- now even more so.
____

Super-bug, yeah maybe, or dieing of fear.

Honestly, I'm more worried about the rising cases of fear-driven discriminatory behaviour.

And not to forget that we have just entered phase 2 of US-Chinese economic negotiations... China is very powerful economically, but not very transparent, and we tend to not like that.

[JohnRoberts]

Incubation period:
On average around seven days, at least two to three days, at most twelve days -- not 24 days. That was a falsely reported case they couldn't trace.

400.000 people in China would have to die of  this virus to make the fatality rate comparable to that of the common influenza.

Even surgical masks are not effective. PM2.5 for a 1.5nm virus -- no good. So no need to queue at stores or panic-buy online.

Instead get rid of the habit of touching your face a statistical 23 times per hour. It looks somewhat silly anyway

I absolutely wish media would also report on clinically diagnosed recoveries. Can look up on Wikipedia.

The excellent recovery rate for people who get treatment has been reported in (some) media, but that does not scare people so not much emphasis, mainstream "sky is falling" media.

JR

[Tubetec]

I forget the exact details now ,but a friend of mine who works in the sciences told me about the reemergence of an identical strain of flu to 1917-18 sometime in the mid 50's on a US air force base , and it also made an appearance  in a border region between Russia and China  at another point in time . It could have come up from frozen bodies in the ground , but its also possible samples at labs got out .               I guess we feel safer in our skin thinking no one on earth would be crazy enough to try and weaponise these things, like for instance re engineering the virus with a predisposition for infecting one ethnic subgroup or another , its almost beyond thinking about , but bio warfare existed long long before modern science could explain it .The trebuchet which dates back to 4th century China was often used to fling the carcasses of diseased animals over the walls of the enemy stronghold.

I havent read it but there's a book about Sydney Gottlieb  ,poisoner in chief , which delves into some of the darker aspects of what was allowed to go on in the height of the cold war ,more about the use of chemical than biological, but an eye opening read by all accounts. The weaponisation of anthrax is another example of stuff best left alone .

I havent used air travel in many years but sipping  peated scotch whiskey for the duration of the flight seems like a most sensible way to stop the viruses and bugs  residing in the airways. For some reason I almost never seemed to get bad doses of flu even when I was a smoker ,now I've quit tobacco I'm fairly certain reduces the risks of chest infections, coughs, colds and flu's by another good margin.
 

[rob_gould]

The excellent recovery rate for people who get treatment has been reported in (some) media, but that does not scare people so not much emphasis, mainstream "sky is falling" media.

JR

There is some good info being presented on YouTube by a UK medical expert.  He describes the most concerning situation like this :

At the moment, the mortality rate is around 2%, but the 'serious' infection rate which requires hospital treatment is around 20%. Currently the large proportion of that 20% are surviving because they're making it to hospital and getting treatment.  If a situation arises where a significant proportion of a whole country's population is infected, then the vast majority of the 20% of 'serious' cases will most likely die because the people needing hospital treatment will vastly outnumber the number of hospital places available for them.

[squarewave]

There is some good info being presented on YouTube by a UK medical expert.  He describes the most concerning situation like this :

At the moment, the mortality rate is around 2%, but the 'serious' infection rate which requires hospital treatment is around 20%. Currently the large proportion of that 20% are surviving because they're making it to hospital and getting treatment.  If a situation arises where a significant proportion of a whole country's population is infected, then the vast majority of the 20% of 'serious' cases will most likely die because the people needing hospital treatment will vastly outnumber the number of hospital places available for them.

Do you have citations for this? My understanding was that symptoms were 80% mild, 14% serious but you can isolate at home, %4 required hospitalization and 2% fatal. And again, the 2% fatality rate is usually not entirely the virus. It's people who have cancer, cirrhosis, diabetes, bad smoker, another respiratory illness, etc.

[rob_gould]

Certainly!

This is the chap I was talking about : https://youtu.be/v16llL6YspY

[boji]

Disturbing to read China's fears it may make men infertile (Fake newz?), and that catching it second time is a very very bad idea.

https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-scientists-coronavirus-male-fertility-1488235

It's people who have cancer, cirrhosis, diabetes, bad smoker, another respiratory illness, etc.

Low hanging fruit. Always something to be afraid of.  Seems like someone figured out we need a baseline fear everpresent in our collective consciousness in order to act like proper impulse consumers.

By the way-- has anyone noticed amazon fulfillment is suffering a bit?  Past few months I've been buying various bits and bobs, screws and such each week, but it appears many items that were previously stocked for next day arrival are now shipping with a 1-3 week lag.
In short: Amazon prime is running out of primer.

Is it wrong that I tend to get a little squeamish when opening up packages lately I know full well began its journey from a Chinese port?
(Yes, it's wrong. Paranoid.) ..But boy would it be easy...sprinkle a little covad here, bit o' sars patina on the popcorn nuggets...) 

[scott2000]

OT

My wife told me earlier that a friend of hers has a daughter who was just diagnosed with Swine flu..

Here in Tampa , FL

Need to make sure she wasn't mistaken when I see her again...

[rob_gould]

By the way-- has anyone noticed amazon fulfillment is suffering a bit?  Past few months I've been buying various bits and bobs, screws and such each week, but it appears many items that were previously stocked for next day arrival are now shipping with a 1-3 week lag.
In short: Amazon prime is running out of primer.

I cancelled my Prime subscription before the most recent automatic renewal.  They've (Amazon DE)  failed to deliver stuff in their proposed time window on more than half the orders I've made in the last 3 - 4 months, and the final straw was something which was damaged in tramsit and held by the courier.   

Long story short, Amazon would not send a replacement for a 12 euro part to me which was holding up a project, claiming that the original order might still arrive.  This was despite the courier having already told me that they were sending the damaged box back to Amazon.  I was pretty surprised by how indifferent their customer service was.

[JohnRoberts]

OT

My wife told me earlier that a friend of hers has a daughter who was just diagnosed with Swine flu..

Here in Tampa , FL

Need to make sure she wasn't mistaken when I see her again...

aka H1n1 made the rounds about a decade ago, infects both humans and hogs.  Right now it is decimating China's pork industry and they like their pork so it will be a good year for US pork exports.

While corona virus is interfering somewhat with completing that trade.

JR

[scott2000]

Well she does have H1n1 I just confirmed.. Guess she's getting better..2 weeks in bed .....

She is Thai  American ....Mom.. Thinks maybe picked up at gym...


 

[Tubetec]

I believe D. Rumsfeldt held a large stake in Mexican based pig farms for many years before the swine flu epidemic, he managed to get out and cut his losses before it hit the proverbial fan though . I saw pics from some of these production facillities , they had lakes of pigsh!t a mile wide sitting in the hot sun . Plenty of societies ,especially in hotter climates that wont touch pig production or the meat of the animal , this isnt just some chance occurence ,it must have evolved through trial and error ,like a lot of our customs and social rules evolved for a reason . Marriage and fidelity is the obvious one that exists across almost all societies, its a very effective way of preventing disease and helping to make sure you saw your children into adulthood before popping your clogs , of course doing right by God got added into the equation along the way somewhere too   

An old pal of mine grew up on an industrial scale pig production plant , I'd have needed a couple of stiff whiskies first thing in the morning before going down to the sheds with the .22 if I'd had his job to do .

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