Brexit

[Tubetec]

Apparently now someone has flagged up Borris's relatives from Co Clare , Bunratty Castle no less , 'the Gorman's' originally from Co Limerick ,theres an open  invitation  for the new PM to visit. 
I personally didnt find BOJO's Murphy/Irish 'joke'  very funny at all , and it demonstrates a kind of contempt towards the Irish you find in some quarters in the UK . I know plenty of English people that are deeply imbarressed  by Borris's buffoonery and bluster.

Again just like Ireland ,you now have a PM that hasn't any mandate from the voters ,just  party members voted him in , Thats Autocracy not Democracy . 

I think its only a matter of time before Borris makes a gigantic gaff with his gobsh!tery or steps into a very deep pile of dodo of which no spin doctor/speech writer can 'tractor pull' him out of , 'Bodge' is my pet name for him. 

Maggie Thatcher  ,I doubt thats a comparrison he'd like , he's trying emulate  Winston Churchill ,  Im not sure if they still allow brandy and cigars around the cabinet table anymore though , especially first thing in the morning  ;D

 

[abbey road d enfer]

The new question du jour is will a no-deal Brexit be bad for UK or bad for EU...? 

Bad for both; that's what PM Blow Job is counting on as leverage to make the EU bend over, once more.

 

[DaveP]

It now seems clear that the UK government is allowing the Pound to depreciate to the level of the EU import tariffs.  In this way trade will continue as before because the price to EU cusomers will remain the same.  This will cause inflation but it may mean that less jobs are lost.

All the UK expats in the EU will therefore be taking a similar pension cut. 

DaveP

 

[abbey road d enfer]

It now seems clear that the UK government is allowing the Pound to depreciate to the level of the EU import tariffs.  In this way trade will continue as before because the price to EU cusomers will remain the same.  This will cause inflation but it may mean that less jobs are lost.

This may be the case for sheep farmers and whisky producers, but for industries that buy supplies and materials on the international market, their BOM will increase significantly. We had this situation in France in the early 80's; wine merchants and farmers took advantage of it, the latter particularly because of the CAP. Post-Brexit UK won't have this resource.
As a manufacturer, we'd been sold to the idea that it would make export easier, but we figured out the prices of ALL supplies had increased, because everything is inter-related: oil increases, so transportation increases, raw materials are in US$, so they all increase, semiconductors, components, PCB's... In the end the export price is about the same and it's more expensive on the domestic market.
There so much interaction between countries it is not reasonable having an isolationist POV, or it's Norh Korea.

All the UK expats in the EU will therefore be taking a similar pension cut. 

Pity...
Now the real question: Who benefits from the crime? You certainly know who loses...

 

[Script]

In the end the export price is about the same and it's more expensive on the domestic market.

You nailed it.

And that's exactly what happened in Japan with their bazooka 30 per cent devaluation project.

It did raise exports, but not in any comparable measure in which importing goods got more expensive.

But hey, good news, itt ends up being the people ,not big business, who pay the bill 

 

[JohnRoberts]

You nailed it.

And that's exactly what happened in Japan with their bazooka 30 per cent devaluation project.

It did raise exports, but not in any comparable measure in which importing goods got more expensive.

But hey, good news, itt ends up being the people ,not big business, who pay the bill 

It is always the people who pay tariffs and taxes... Companies just pass increases through with higher prices (if they can, or they stop trading ).

I am not following Brexit as closely as you guys who are personally involved but there seem to be some shifts. The Chinese yuan devaluation (presumably to blunt US tariffs) will affect major EU exporters (like Germany and to some degree France). 

I have noticed only UK navy supporting western oil shipping through the straits of Hormuz, and they seem to have a personal issue with Iran over a confiscated oil shipment headed for Syria violating sanctions. It seems like the rest of the EU also buys oil. Ironically perhaps the US does not need ME oil like we once did, but somehow we seem stuck as the world's traffic cop.

I repeat I am not following this closely but apparently Italy is also pushing back some against Brussels in recent news.

JR

 

[Script]

-- A true moment of glory in British democracy  --

To prorogue or not to prorogue, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die—to sleep,
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache, and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to: ’tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep.
To sleep, perchance to dream—ay, there’s the rub,
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There’s the respect
That makes calamity of so long life.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
The oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s contumely,
The pangs of dispriz’d love, the law’s delay,
The insolence of office, and the spurns
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? Who would these fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscover’d country, from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o’er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment,
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action. Soft you now,
The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins remember’d.

-----

BTW, the Queen concents.

 

[JohnRoberts]

-- A true moment of glory in British democracy  --

To prorogue or not to prorogue, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die—to sleep,
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache, and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to: ’tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish’d. To die, to sleep.
To sleep, perchance to dream—ay, there’s the rub,
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come,
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause. There’s the respect
That makes calamity of so long life.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
The oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s contumely,
The pangs of dispriz’d love, the law’s delay,
The insolence of office, and the spurns
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? Who would these fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscover’d country, from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o’er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment,
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action. Soft you now,
The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins remember’d.

-----

BTW, the Queen concents.

consents? (to shutting down parliament? not Hamlet).  Almost any kind of certainty is better than watching the slow motion decay of economic uncertainty. 

'Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio'

JR

 

[Script]

'Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio'

That is the  'memento mori ' scene in Act V.
(Death is unavoidable, the things of this life have no consequence.)

Also somewhat apt. We are that far into the 'drama' already?

-----------------
The Queen's consenting is a formality -- purely ceremonial in this case, not a statement.

Unless she decides to  play out her still remaining sovereign powers  (such as the making of treatise in foreign affairs) during the couple of weeks that parliament would be suspended, haha  [irony!] Somewhat unlikely though that she will.

 

[DaveP]

Even though I voted remain, I realise that the UK cannot continue this impasse indefinitely.  Business needs certainty.

MP's had the right to reject May's deal,,,,,,,,,,but they also had a responsibility to come up with an alternative, something they have completely failed to do.  Boris has called time on their self-indulgence and they only have themselves to blame.

The sooner this is over, the sooner the exchange rate will improve again and the millions of expats who live in Europe will stop losing their pensions, this "democratic" exercise has cost me alone £5000 since 2016.  Our MP's have never even mentioned this, they are too concerned with their own rights.

DaveP

 

[abbey road d enfer]

Even though I voted remain, I realise that the UK cannot continue this impasse indefinitely.  Business needs certainty.

My understanding is BJ wants to put the Parliament in an emergency situation, which only issue would be to comfort him as PM; failure to do so would be chaos.
It's a pity BJ's agenda is not the common good; a typical example of ambition taking over.

MP's had the right to reject May's deal,,,,,,,,,,but they also had a responsibility to come up with an alternative, something they have completely failed to do.  Boris has called time on their self-indulgence and they only have themselves to blame.

That's correct, but hasn't BJ been part of those who failed to "come up with an alternative"? Why does he suddenly have a out of the hat solution?

Our MP's have never even mentioned this, they are too concerned with their own rights.

When was the last time parliamentaries actually cared about their constituents? I have a feeling many Brits realize they were dragged into this adventure, thinking that leaving Europe, they would have more democracy, only to find that their own parliamentarians fail to act democratically.

Ergo, Europe is not the crux of problem, politicians are.
That is only my opinion.

As to people wanting democracy, in fact they want freedom for themselves, control for the others.
Like in the US, where Trump voters want less government for themselves, but want more control on all those that live differently, blacks, latinos, democrats, musicians, homosexuals, atheists...
I don't see BJ being really different.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Ergo, Europe is not the crux of problem, politicians are.
That is only my opinion.

that seems a pretty safe bet...

As to people wanting democracy, in fact they want freedom for themselves, control for the others.

Hard to know what people think. Many people think different things.

Like in the US, where Trump voters want less government for themselves, but want more control on all those that live differently, blacks, latinos, democrats, musicians, homosexuals, atheists...

seriously? (us deplorables?)

I don't see BJ being really different.

He seems like a bit of a bafoon (too), but this should not be a blame exercise but how do we (they) work our way out of this current situation?  Politicians would happily keep kicking this can down the road, because that is what they do. (Can't be blamed for doing wrong, if they do nothing). 

There is a (old bad) joke about "who is in charge" that this reminds me of... The different parts of the human body were arguing with each other about who was in charge. The heart said it was in charge because it pumps blood, the brain said it was in charge because controls the nervous system, etc. Finally the asshole said it was in charge and snapped shut... After a suitable time with everything backed up, the rest of the body conceded that the asshole was indeed in charge.  8)

JR

 

[abbey road d enfer]

Hard to know what people think. Many people think different things.

There seems to be a  kind of convergence there. Some kind of gaussian.

seriously? (us deplorables?)

I don't think people who think that think of themselves as deplorables, and I don't allow myself to judge them deplorables. They continue to act as they have done all their lives and their parents before them. It takes courage to break the pattern, in a country where tradition, family pressure and identitarian closure are stronger than the desire to move the boundaries of social paradigm.

He seems like a bit of a bafoon (too), but this should not be a blame exercise but how do we (they) work our way out of this current situation?

BJ has no concern about proper resolution of the situation; he just wants to be PM for the next 5 years. In order to achieve that, he plays it tough, which his constituents like, "coulda, shoulda, woulda" style.

After a suitable time with everything backed up, the rest of the body conceded that the asshole was indeed in charge.  8)

Ain't that true...

 

[Tubetec]

It  looks like Donald Trump is systematically laying waste to democracy this side of the pond , you get the feeling if he told Borris to take a very long walk off a very short peer  Borris would gleefully agree without even thinking. 
This castling manuvre with the queen  and the parliment is probably a step too far for most British people ,Borris's majority of one, carefully held by the DUP vote  wont save him in an election .
'The good Ship Blighty'  is going full steam ahead towards Brexit, a buffoon at the helm, and with  parlimentary oversight temporarily suspended . If something like this happened in a third country we'd probably call it a coup .

 

[Script]

That's correct, but hasn't BJ been part of those who failed to "come up with an alternative"?

Yes, first order. Even seminal in selling a lie when campaigning back then, which some obviously thought qualifies him for leading negotiations with the EU.

Why does he suddenly have a out of the hat solution?

He doesn't. He just wants to be idolised. Not even convinced he wants a five-year term. as PM. It's a pattern in British politics as of late.

Ergo, Europe is not the crux of problem, politicians are.

Disappointment even disgust with British politicians I understand. But I'm more concerned about those who smirk at and rejoice in it.

I sure wouldn't mind seeing the Queen stand up to hold a public landmark speech on democratic values and political demeanour.

----
BTW, Salvini has been served, his popularity going down. Simply astounding how quickly public opinions, popularities and the sentiments of the electorate can change.

 

[JohnRoberts]

There seems to be a  kind of convergence there. Some kind of gaussian.

haven't seen that study, but lots of identity politics naming and shaming trying to demonize others, who don't drink the same kool aid.

I don't think people who think that think of themselves as deplorables,

I don't think that, but have been called worse, even here on this forum....

One lady on social media went so far as to call me a drummer.  :

and I don't allow myself to judge them deplorables. They continue to act as they have done all their lives and their parents before them. It takes courage to break the pattern, in a country where tradition, family pressure and identitarian closure are stronger than the desire to move the boundaries of social paradigm.

There are indeed individuals who resemble those stereo types but in my judgement far more who don't. Having lived in the deep south for several decades now I have watched the very slow dissipation of racist parenting, but this can take generations, not election cycles. I have had some rather uncomfortable discussions with neighbors 20 years older than me who don't even realize how racist some of their comments are.  At the same time playing basketball at a local gym I experienced some black kids who had received poor parenting too (hopefully I skewered a few racial stereotypes about white people, one kid at a time).

While I am not deeply immersed in local culture things seem better today than 30+ years ago when I first moved down here, of course there are still incidents. That said if we listen to some identity politicians it seems like we are in the middle of raging race war. 

BJ has no concern about proper resolution of the situation; he just wants to be PM for the next 5 years. In order to achieve that, he plays it tough, which his constituents like, "coulda, shoulda, woulda" style.

I expect most elected officials want to remain in office.

Like DaveP I suspect most voters are concerned about the  impact of Brexit on their personal well being. I think we are well past the "how do you feel" stage, and at the "do something" (anything?) stage.

Ain't that true...

yup, but there's even a message in there. Stop the music and make everybody find a chair or leave.

JR

 

[abbey road d enfer]

BTW, Salvini has been served, his popularity going down.

Is it final? I am still afraid of the lethal bursts of wounded pachyderms.

 

[iomegaman]

I am no Trump supporter, and frankly know very little of Boris other than he seems to  be Trump-Lite in Uk clothing...

Actually saying "I am no Trump supporter" is not even close to the reality the man is a moron-con-game and him getting elected seems to be the result of us getting what we deserve for complacency in regard to politics...

That all being said I do think there is merit in shaking up the system...Trump is obviously an extreme version of "shaken not stirred" and there is plenty of evidence for anyone with a set of reading glasses that he has been beholden to Oligarchs from the time his daddy handed him the mafia owned business...and without much research it seems the same forces are at work in the UK...

Stepping back from the brink and looking into the abyss that is human politics...I think what we are watching is three forces competing for the same carcass...

We have the imbedded big government control freaks who offer up free things made up of deficits passed on to our kids, we have the huge money of corporate interest who have bought the right to run our lives via legislative impunity for toxifying the entire planet for profit and we have the criminals incorporated who are exploiting social media and crowd apathy to influence politics in their favor...

Basically we have three very different predators fighting over the rest of us...

The only winning solution here is if they destroy each other...chances are thats not going to happen...but maybe they will work to weaken one another at least enough for maybe an escape of sorts to manifest...but I am not hopeful.

Democracy was a decent enough idea...but it has come up against evolutions most developed predator, humans...

No one wins against humans...except for nature itself and thats only because nature does not give a fuck...

I still hope for a peaceful species of aliens to show up and ask for our help because their own path of evolution was so gradual and gentle they lack the tools to be predators...maybe the universe is simply waiting until we've perfected our predator skills to self extinction to step in and say "Oh good you're ready, let us show you why you're here....go get 'em"

 

[ruffrecords]

I still hope for a peaceful species of aliens to show up and ask for our help because their own path of evolution was so gradual and gentle they lack the tools to be predators...maybe the universe is simply waiting until we've perfected our predator skills to self extinction to step in and say "Oh good you're ready, let us show you why you're here....go get 'em"

Yeah, but the politicians would shaft them too.

Cheers

Ian

 

[JohnRoberts]

Any sufficiently advance alien race would probably squash us like bugs, or ignore/hide from us.

===

Brexit is getting interesting again...

JR