COVID-19

[ruffrecords]

All schools, colleges and nurseries in the UK to close on Friday. Children of key workers (healthcare, police etc) will still go to school on Monday where staff will be expected to teach as normally as possible.

On a good note, it is reported that an antibody test is close to being available. It can tell if a person has had the virus and has antibodies in their system. This tells us two things;  which people are safe to go back to work and the proportion of people with asymptomatic infection of the virus.

Cheers

Ian

 

[ruffrecords]

Did you know that on 7th of April is world health day!

Cheers

Ian

 

[Bo Deadly]

Instead of isolating everyone from each other, I think we should separate into two groups:

• Group A: Everyone who's ok with getting Coronavirus (like me) and just going about their business knowing that there's a 99.9% chance that they'll breeze through it like a bad date. Yeah, there's a 0.1% chance they might have a bad reaction and not be able to get an ICU bed / ventilator but personally I like those odds.
  
• Group B: Anyone who is concerned because of their age or a health condition or they're just not on board and want to isolate.

So the important difference between what we're doing right now (total shutdown and all but certain economic depression) and what I'm suggesting is that Group A just goes about their Business with the significant and very important exception that they are very conscientious and diligent about avoiding Group B because they should realize that any contact with Group B could literally kill them.

Group B would be granted special privileges like exclusive access to shopping, the dentist, services, etc before a certain time of day or certain days of the week. And with some care Group A can deliver supplies and remove waste for Group B as they isolate. So for example I could bring groceries to the back door and take away the trash for my mother.

After a while, Group A starts to "naturally inoculate" themselves and are no longer are carriers (aka herd immunity) and thus reduces the chances of Group B getting infected.

Otherwise, I fear that what we're doing just isn't going to work. Once in a while would-be-Group B will have to go to the store and get Coronavirus as soon as they touch the shopping cart handle. The "cure" is worse than the disease as they say. How are you going to stop your kid from sneaking out to visit his girlfriend? Answer: You're not. It's going to be about two weeks before younger folks drop isolation anyway. We might as well just make it official and orderly.

Send the kids back to college and let they take their younger siblings with them!

 

[Seeker]

It's going to be about two weeks before younger folks drop isolation anyway.

Yea this seems to be inevitable.  A shutdown like this is not sustainable, I guess we’ll see what comes in a few weeks...

 

[ruffrecords]

• Instead of isolating everyone from each other, I think we should separate into two groups:
  
  

  • Group A: Everyone who's ok with getting Coronavirus (like me) and just going about their business knowing that there's a 99.9% chance that they'll breeze through it like a bad date. Yeah, there's a 0.1% chance they might have a bad reaction and not be able to get an ICU bed / ventilator but personally I like those odds.
    
  • Group B: Anyone who is concerned because of their age or a health condition or they're just not on board and want to isolate.

  
  To a certain extent this is already happening. Lots of young people in the UK are ignoring the advice to limit contact with others and many retired folk are deliberately limiting it. The problem with this approach is you  do not know who has been infected and who has not.
  
  The important thing about an antibody test is it should help address this issue. It is especially import for healthcare and community workers who may need to come into contact with group B. The last thing you want is the carers infecting the vulnerable.
  
  Cheers
  
  Ian

 

[dmp]

Group A: Everyone who's ok with getting Coronavirus (like me) and just going about their business knowing that there's a 99.9% chance that they'll breeze through it like a bad date. Yeah, there's a 0.1% chance they might have a bad reaction and not be able to get an ICU bed / ventilator but personally I like those odds.[/list]

The facts are coming out fast and furious, but there have been pretty scary stories of youngish people (30s-40s) becoming very sick and requiring hospitalization. There have been deaths of people in the 40s. It seems preexisting conditions like asthma or smoking might be the increased risk factor, but I'm not sure we know enough yet.

The whole point of the shutdown is not to prevent people from ever getting it, but to avoid the hospitals being overrun.  Even with the current shutdown attempts, the health care system is likely to be severely strained.  Slow it down.

 

[midwayfair]

actually it is. the trick here is avoid the big markets and stores. the local Mexican  market around the corner from the studio has been stocked full without issue since this all started.

Shhh! Don't tell too many people!

I hit up the Italian, Hallal, and supermercado over the weekend, all were just fine. They're a good portion of my monthly shopping anyway.

I commented to my wife today that social distancing was just Tuesday to me.
Then she told me she'd already joked to friends that she wasn't sure I'd even noticed the quarantine. ouch!  ;D

 

[Bo Deadly]

The problem with this approach is you  do not know who has been infected and who has not.

But you don't need to. If you're in Group A, you assume that everyone is already infected and that if you are not you will. If you are concerned about getting it, then you are in Group B and should isolate yourself and only go to places that are specifically for Group B people only.

The important thing about an antibody test is it should help address this issue.

I would not count on testing too much. Here in the US, it's becoming clear that the horse has already left the barn. I have a cold right now and just sent a message to my medical provider and they said I would not be tested because my symptoms do not meet the criteria. But for most people the symptoms are cold-like. So in other words, they won't give you a test unless you obviously have it (or the flu). That means that the numbers will be waaaay off and continue to be. My guess is there are large numbers of people that have already had it and never even knew it. The powers-at-be know this and thus testing is somewhat pointless at this point. It would just inflate the numbers. The only way to know if someone actually has it or had it in the past would be to use antibody testing and AFAIK that's not being done at all. So testing is going to be de-emphasized.

It is especially import for healthcare and community workers who may need to come into contact with group B.

Heathcare workers would implicitly be in Group A. If a healthcare worker is a high risk individual or they're just really worried about getting, they would be in Group B and isolate. But my guess is that they accept the risk (otherwise they wouldn't be a healthcare working during a global virus pandemic) and they accept being in Group A. But when ICU / ventilator capacity is exceeded, healthcare workers in the vulnerable category should switch to Group B and only individuals who are very low risk or those who have had COVID-19 and recovered (and thus have some immunity) should be anywhere near Group A people.

 

[john12ax7]

There were four new cases with nba players,  only 1 of 4 has any symptoms. The official numbers are definitely way off.

The big issue right now is what happens with re-infection. There is evidence that some people get worse after repeated exposure.

 

[kambo]

There is evidence that some people get worse after repeated exposure.

my understanding is some people starting to get better from mild flu/like , and boom  its hitting back hard ...
those ones are usually young ones, and getting hospitalized.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Instead of isolating everyone from each other, I think we should separate into two groups:

• Group A: Everyone who's ok with getting Coronavirus (like me) and just going about their business knowing that there's a 99.9% chance that they'll breeze through it like a bad date. Yeah, there's a 0.1% chance they might have a bad reaction and not be able to get an ICU bed / ventilator but personally I like those odds.
  
• Group B: Anyone who is concerned because of their age or a health condition or they're just not on board and want to isolate.

That sounds like the premise for a new science fiction show... I may have seen previews for that.

So the important difference between what we're doing right now (total shutdown and all but certain economic depression) and what I'm suggesting is that Group A just goes about their Business with the significant and very important exception that they are very conscientious and diligent about avoiding Group B because they should realize that any contact with Group B could literally kill them.

don't breath on me bro...

Group B would be granted special privileges like exclusive access to shopping, the dentist, services, etc before a certain time of day or certain days of the week. And with some care Group A can deliver supplies and remove waste for Group B as they isolate. So for example I could bring groceries to the back door and take away the trash for my mother.

After a while, Group A starts to "naturally inoculate" themselves and are no longer are carriers (aka herd immunity) and thus reduces the chances of Group B getting infected.

how long is you while?

Otherwise, I fear that what we're doing just isn't going to work. Once in a while would-be-Group B will have to go to the store and get Coronavirus as soon as they touch the shopping cart handle. The "cure" is worse than the disease as they say. How are you going to stop your kid from sneaking out to visit his girlfriend? Answer: You're not. It's going to be about two weeks before younger folks drop isolation anyway. We might as well just make it official and orderly.

I promised myself to stop mind reading but killing off all the old dead wood, like me, might be desirable to some . (I did say bad science fiction).

Send the kids back to college and let they take their younger siblings with them!

Never go back to college... take classes over video...but that will cause the colleges to lose money... never mind.

JR

PS: Tomorrow is my shopping day... we'll see if they have any TP.  : I'm down to only two rolls, but Brian said I didn't need to send him one of them so I'm good. 

PPS: let's not repeat unverified rumors, thats how they spread (just like a virus).

 

[kambo]

After a while, Group A starts to "naturally inoculate" themselves and are no longer are carriers (aka herd immunity) and thus reduces the chances of Group B getting infected.

u need 67% infected to stop spreading naturally, 
thus same math formula if what UK doing, but they are island, and small
compared to US! hope it works there!

 

[Bo Deadly]

how long is [a] while?

As people are infected and recover or vaccinated, they acquire some immunity. Those people are then no longer as likely to spread the disease. This is also known as "herd immunity"  and, to use an electronics analogy, is basically the same as an RC filter. As voltage across the capacitor increases, the drop across the resistor is less which draws less current and thus charges the capacitor slower. The voltage over time is logarithmic.

But if you take a separate capacitor and charge it separately (kids in college / Group A) and then, after "a while", switch it in parallel with the first capacitor (Group B), you get the same effect (herd immunity) without the first capacitor absorbing as much current (infection).

So it would actually decrease your chances of being infected John.

 

[living sounds]

Good source of information:

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/more-covid-19-news/

 

[kambo]

Good source of information:
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/more-covid-19-news/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
and Germany still has the outstanding lo numbers on mortality, thats excellent

what Germany doing different to keep it so lo...
US isnt even near its limits as of now! and its looking pretty high!

 

[JohnRoberts]

As people are infected and recover or vaccinated, they acquire some immunity. Those people are then no longer as likely to spread the disease. This is also known as "herd immunity"  and, to use an electronics analogy, is basically the same as an RC filter. As voltage across the capacitor increases, the drop across the resistor is less which draws less current and thus charges the capacitor slower. The voltage over time is logarithmic.

I am pretty familiar with e^(-t/rc)....

But if you take a separate capacitor and charge it separately (kids in college / Group A) and then, after "a while", switch it in parallel with the first capacitor (Group B), you get the same effect (herd immunity) without the first capacitor absorbing as much current (infection).

So it would actually decrease your chances of being infected John.

Don't breath on me bro... You sound like you may be thinking about risky behavior.

I was a kid once and thought I would live forever,,, still vertical, but I take less risks than I used to. 

JR

 

[living sounds]

what Germany doing different to keep it so lo...

I have no idea. Germans always criticize many aspects of the hospital system in comparison to our neighbours, for instance how much better the Netherlands are at hygiene and keeping multi-resistant-bacteria at bay. But the exceptionally low mortality so far really sticks out...

 

[Script]

All of China reported 13 (thirteen !) new cases yesterday -- true? Fake? You decide.

Meanwhile, how about some live music streams:
http://www.openculture.com/2020/03/live-performers-now-streaming-shows-from-their-homes-to-yours.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OpenCulture+%28Open+Culture%29

Or fire up the iron and get all those unfinished projects done.

As for shopping, I read that in Spain and Italy they hoard wine. How is that for difference in culture?

 

[Bo Deadly]

Don't breath on me bro...

That is precisely what I'm propsing bro. I would be in Group A. You would be in Group B. Group A and Group B would avoid each other diligently and definitely not breath on each other. But Group A can go about their business and spend money and go to the movies and bars. Group B would not as they would be living in isolation until we build up herd immunity and make a vaccine.

Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that we risk lives for the sake of the economy. There is some threshold of age / health at which 99.9% of people will, after some mild condition, will be 100% fine (Group A). By letting those people get infected, they are removed from the population as carriers. That "herd immunity" reduces the risk to the vulnerable category (Group B). As long as Group A remains below said threshold, there should be little additional strain on the healthcare system and the net effect is lower mortality.

 

[ruairioflaherty]

Can I make an ask of the community?  Please, consider carefully the information you are putting into the world right now.

I'm seeing really poor quality information coming from what I previously considered to be smart people, here and elsewhere.  Go to trusted primary sources, and share only what you know to be true.  The majority of the news right now is poor quality.

I very rarely share personal info online but as I posted recently I am the father of two girls adopted from China with one more on the way once this chaos settles.  Friends in the adoption community are already experiencing elevated levels of racism, again I ask you all to be careful of the language used.  When our President refers to this as "The Chinese Virus" it fuels bad behavior and wrong headed ideas.

A friend of my wife was in line with her adopted Chinese daughter this week when a man behind them pointed to the child and loudly proclaimed "That's where it comes from".

Be a source of good info for your community, here and elsewhere.