COVID-19

[kambo]

Italy is going bad! ~ 793 new deaths last 24 hours

 

[Tubetec]

I often do the same around the place here and burn up the smaller trimmings from the trees and bushes ,technically anyone of my neighbours could call the council and complain me but theres enough space so as the smoke is not too much of a nuisance .
The handy thing about only burning unprocessed, unpainted or untreated timber is the resulting ash is safe to spread or use as an additive to help regenerate earth that has lost its nutrients . At the moment I'm triming the lower branches of some tall trees in the front garden ,there evergreens so the shed needles tend stop anything growing below , the trees themselves suck the nutrients out of the ground too . Once things are cleared back to the earth it makes perfect ground to re-energise with the left over ash , it rakes into the dirt easily and by the time a few good rain storms have hit its incorporated back into the earth. 

Seems like lots of people are keeping busy doing bits and pieces around the garden if they are lucky enough to have one . The definition of self isolation differs from place to place and depending on your own situation , at the moment here they are recommending  6ft or 2meters  as a safe distance for people not showing symptoms . One problem that has arisen here is for people living within the so called 'Direct Provision' system for refugees , they simply cant comply with even the most basic precautions due to crampt conditions and shared communal living cooking and toilet facillities.

I spoke to my buddy the virologist a few days back , he told me about a grand conference of medical people coming together in the capitol a week or so back , he wasnt invited and when he inquired if any virologists were attending he was told by a medical work colleague , 'if you have any good ideas ,just put them down on paper and hand it in to us' . It seems those most qualified to speak on the subject are forced to take a back seat to a bunch of high flying over paid careerist pricks

I walk my dogs fairly regularly  on 650 acres farmland just up the road from me , the place is teeming with rabbits , I must say I'm no longer just seeing my furry friends as just part of the furniture ,but a possible food source if the need arises .
I heard that in Maine they have lifted the need for a fresh water fishing licence for the rest of the season ,thats just plain good common sense thinking . It must be 25 years since I fished my local river ,gonna have to get back to that again soon too.

 

[Squeaky]

I walk my dogs fairly regularly  on 650 acres farmland just up the road from me , the place is teeming with rabbits , I must say I'm no longer just seeing my furry friends as just part of the furniture ,but a possible food source if the need arises .
I heard that in Maine they have lifted the need for a fresh water fishing licence for the rest of the season ,thats just plain good common sense thinking . It must be 25 years since I fished my local river ,gonna have to get back to that again soon too.

I fish, hunt and gather with my dog because I enjoy it and I am a bit of a gourmand who loves wild food. I try and get out everyday as part of my well-being regime (everyone has something different that works for them - I am not advocating my lifestyle choices to anyone). Plus, the dog (a red setter from working lines) would just drive me mad if I didn't.

As you are probably well aware Tubetec (from your previous posts, I think you know your food), any type of "chasseur" styling works well with rabbit. I made a variant with dried figs and olives (tomato base). Another variant is "Coniglio al Guazzetto" which uses red wine vinegar, capers, red onions and lots of parsley (pinch of saffron as well). There are probably lots of different "Guazzettos". I believe it is a Sardinian thing. We have a bit of a tradition here where I make rabbit terrine for my wife for Christmas. You can use rabbit in paella (traditional with snails I believe). It is a very lean, healthy meat. Young bucks are the best.

At the moment there are a lot of blackberries and walnuts around, both of which are delicious. The fishing is challenging because the rivers are low at the moment (we are in a drought) but I have a few in the freezer. I prefer to hot smoke trout after some time in a brown sugar/salt brine. An old-timer explained to me how to get rid of the little bones.

The roar (or rut) is just about to get underway here. A mate said his father-in-law heard the stags start to moan a couple of days ago. I'm going to the forest for a bit of a reconnaissance this afternoon.

If I have a bit of trout, rabbit, pheasant and venison in the deep freeze then things are going well. Venison is probably my family's favourite meat. We have wild Reds and Sika locally. There are also fallow around (mostly on private land so no go). I find Sika a real challenge to hunt but are a good size to carry out.

Personally, I think that if we genuinely have to supplement our diet with hunting and gathering (as opposed to it being just a lifestyle choice), then we are in dire circumstances. Particularly, given (at least in the case of NZ) the amount of food we produce here. I refuse to prognosticate.

I think we are behind a lot of the world here in NZ. We have one confirmed case locally (regional population of about 150,000). However, I think that we might be just starting to hit the uptick part of the Gompertz Curve (this is my speculation). There have only been two "local" transmissions in the country so far with the rest of the cases being returning travelers (about 52 confirmed cases as of yesterday). The next two weeks will be telling. I hope we are smart enough to learn from the experiences of others.

Best wishes to everyone.

Cheers,

Nick

 

[Whoops]

Italy is going bad! ~ 793 new deaths last 24 hours

Yes it's horrible,
4000 people died in the last 10 days. It's the complete collapse of the Hospitals since everyone became sick at the same time.
And the number is still growing.

It will happen to any country if the spread is not contained, of course different countries have different roofs level for the collapse of hospitals, but all of them will collapse if the numbers rise about that roof.

Spanish Government took a long time to take any measures to contain the spread, didn't do anything for a long time, and unfortunately Spanish Hospitals collapsed now.
2 days ago it reached 195 deaths a day, then 260 and last 24 hours it reached 285 deaths.
I'm really sad but soon the scenario in Spain will be the same as in Italy.

The same thing might happen soon to all the other countries that took a long time to address the issue and recognize it as a priority threat like the UK , USA and France.

 

[Tubetec]

Hi Nick ,
52 is a mercifully low number of cases,
Here in Ireland we have around 785 cases and 3 deaths I believe ,
The big mistake was an international rugby game that was cancelled ,but many of the Italian fans still made the trip to Dublin
instead of loosing their money .

Thanks for the interesting food advice too , the huntsmans stew with wine sounds like a great way to do rabbit or any game for that matter really .

 

[living sounds]

Germany also taking the Chinese route and not attributing comorbidities to covid19 deaths.

Do you have a source for this? It's certainly news to me (and I live in Germany).

I think we should make it a rule that any factual claims must be substantiated with a citation.

 

[ruairioflaherty]

I think we should make it a rule that any factual claims must be substantiated with a citation.

This is really important, the quality of information in the thread so far is very poor.

I would go further and say that anything related to virus itself should only be coming from qualified people in the field, not chemists or politicians or your local bartender.  We need direct citations from Virologists, Epidemiologists and Immunologists.

FWIW This is where I've been getting good info - https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19/

Peter Attia is a Doctor whose Podcast I follow in more normal times.  He is rigorous with facts, principled and IMO trustworthy.  He has devoted all 14 staff at his practice to  the Covid-19-19 issue and they have been aggregating research and accessing their contacts on the front line.

The unfortunate fact right now is that the data is just not in yet, there are far more questions than answers.

 

[Bo Deadly]

The unfortunate fact right now is that the data is just not in yet, there are far more questions than answers.

I feel this fact is being overlooked / underestimated. In the US we are not testing people unless they have a fever and cough. Many places are now not testing at all unless the test would affect the patients treatment (meaning flu vs corona) because it's burning through too much PPE. That means that all of the numbers about new cases and such are pretty much meaningless. It is very possible that for every person that has a fever and cough, there are 100 people who do not meet the criteria for testing that are just walking around hanging out with their neighbors. I can hear people partying nearby right now.

I feel more strongly than ever that it would be better if we just designate certain days / hours for vulnerable groups and then just let everyone else go about their business (the "Group A/B" system I was talking about).

 

[Whoops]

(the "Group A/B" system I was talking about).

There's no Group A or B for Hospital systems, there's no Group A or B for a country.
It's all the same Hospital System and the same Country for everyone.

Group A will get all infected, and will infect everyone that deals with them (like all the workers in the basic needs services, like supermarkets, drugstores, distribution), it will then make the Hospital system collapse and everyone from Group B would die and a lot from Group A would die.
Then everyone at the supermarket would be sick, because Group A would infected them, No Food.
The same for all the basic needs services, no services.
So then in the end most of the people would die.

Your idea is ridiculous like a lot of people told you before.

Also, most of the people in the world don't want to be in Group A, almost everyone doesn't want to be infected in the first place.
So you don't want to respect and understand the recommended isolation for everyone, but you are already isolated in the  thoughts you have.

 

[Whoops]

 

[Bo Deadly]

Group A will get all infected, and will infect everyone that deals with them (like all the workers in the basic needs services, like

Correct. But if you're in Group A, that means you have a 99.9% chance of being perfectly fine.

It is understandable that you are having trouble reconciling the fact that a significant % of the population must get infected before this goes away.

 

[Whoops]

Correct. But if you're in Group A, that means you have a 99.9% chance of being perfectly fine.

That number is something you invented yourself.

I think we should make it a rule that any factual claims must be substantiated with a citation.

Also, it doesn't matter if someone develops the need for hospital care or not,  someone infected will transmit it to everyone else, even if they have symptoms or not.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-study-estimates-rate-of-silent-transmission

People above 60 years old are dying a lot in Italy not only because it's the more vulnerable age group but also because there's so many people infected that need medical care, that they don't have ventilators for everyone.
So in Hospitals they are refusing to give ventilators to people above 60 years old, to be able to give it to someone younger.
Basically at the moment after the collapse (so many people sick that surpass the healthcare system capacity), if you're above 60 years old in Italy and you need breathing assistance to survive you will die.
It's happening in Italy, but it can happen everywhere else at some point.

So an younger Idiot that wants to be infected because he thinks he will not need medical care, not only will he infect a lot of different people, but also when he needs he will make other people die.
This is exponential.
While if he stayed at home and help contain the spread and "Flatten the Curve", there would be ventilators for everyone that needs them and the Hospitals will be able to not completely collapse.

Like I told you before, you are already isolated

People don't need to get infected for this to go away, I never had measles and I will not get it, I was vaccinated for that.
There will be a vaccine at some point, a lot of efforts worldwide are put into that.

Also if a big percentage of people get infected for this to go away, it's better to be over a period of 3,4 or 5 months than a big peak over a period of 1 or 2 months. That's what flattening the curve means.
That's seems the only viable solution and the most rational at this this point.

 

[dogears]

My feeling on Germany's numbers, in all seriousness.

1. There are differences in reporting country to country. China listed cause of death as the existing comorbidity, not COVID-19. I don't think that's necessarily sinister. It was widely reported. That's just how they do it.  Country to country will have different methods of confirmed /official cases (lab test, centralized / confirm lab test, clinical diagnosis have all been used at various points) and classification of serious / critical cases, as well as testing or reporting regimes for fatalities.

2. Germany is testing very widely. This means over time they'll "see the whole field" much better - catch more cases, which inevitably increases the denominator -> lowers the rate. Over time their rate will rise to similar to everyone else's, much like S Korea's. This is because you'd expect them to catch all the serious cases but the more minor ones are harder to see (ascertainment bias) .

3. Unlike other countries (including Italy and the US) Germany is not performing post-mortem tests (reported here and here). Several of the cases that have been reported in the US were determined after the fact.  This can reduce numbers significantly, most especially in the early stages of an epidemic when one or two numbers make a significant impact to percentages.

This is a long game. It's not going to be over in a week.

I recommend reading this.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

[Bo Deadly]

That number is something you invented yourself.

Correct again. Everyone would decide for themselves is they are healthy enough that they have a 99.9% of being fine if they get it. If you don't want to risk it, then you would just declare yourself to be in Group B and not go out on Group A days.

So an younger Idiot that wants to be infected because he thinks he will not need medical care, not only will he infect a lot of different people, but also when he needs he will make other people die.

That is true. That is a flaw in my scheme. Everyone would have to agree to the system. If you are in Group B you get tested frequently (Group A would not be tested at all since they would be assumed infected by default). If you test positive, you are automatically in Group A and you must not go out on Group B days under penalty of law.

There will be a vaccine at some point, a lot of efforts worldwide are put into that.

I would not be so sure about that. Normally it takes 10 years to develop a vaccine. I have never heard anyone with any real authority say that it would be less than 2 years and that that is a very optimistic estimate. That's just due to the nature of how vaccines are developed. It's not something that you can rush. The lock-down won't last past the first peak in 6 weeks or so.

Also if a big percentage of people get infected for this to go away, it's better to be over a period of 3,4 or 5 months than a big peak over a period of 1 or 2 months. That's what flattening the curve means.

On this point you are unfortunately very incorrect. If you integrate under that curve, you get the same result regardless of how long it takes. Meaning the same number of people will ultimately be infected. The usual number cited is 67%. That is the point at which your chances of running into someone who is a carrier decreases enough to drive R0 below 1. But that assumes we're just a bunch of dumb monkeys. If we use our brains, we can reduce that number.

 

[ruairioflaherty]

I recommend reading this.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

He makes a good case but is playing awfully fast and loose with the numbers.  The author is stating as fact things that I have heard real experts say we cannot/do not know right now. He is not a specialist in the field, he is not in the medical field at all.

That said his core argument that we need need aligns with all of the specialists I've seen.

 

[kambo]

Correct again. Everyone would decide for themselves is they are healthy enough that they have a 99.9% of .....

this whole plan actually makes a good opening for a disaster movie! i would copyright it!

 

[kambo]

5.4 earthquake Croatia ...

edit: 
whats wrong with those kids in FL beaches ... they still dont get it... 4 out of 5 infected from; persons they had no idea they were infected at the first place (source CNN report from in Italy, you tube videos from hospitals)

 

[Tubetec]

Just to pick up on Ruairi's point ,
While the medical people are the only people qualified to treat us for the virus , there not experts on its transmission ,spread and life cycle.
The medical people are top of the heap on the pay scale , so they tend to appoint themselves and their own to be spokespersons , like for instance all the government panels who give out advice here in Ireland , medical men every single one of them ,  virologists and epidemiologists are kept in the shadows for the 'good' doctors to refer too .  Anyone with direct experience working in healthcare(low to middle tier) here in Ireland knows  the top brass have turned the health system into a vortex , a black hole ,which sucks billions out of the economy and has put a sizable part of the population under a chemical cosh for social media & tech related 'anxiety' , its a classic case of treating the symptom and ignoring the cause while cementing their ties with big pharma.

Were an electronics and sound forum at the end of the day ,  none of us are experts in this , sure much of what people say is based on gut instinct more than hard fact , but so what ,  its the brewery not the WHO covid advice website.
We should be able to express agreement or disagreement without the launching of deeply unpleasant attacks like we've seen in recent posts.

 

[Script]

The Groub A / Group B idea, hmm. Since clearly not everyone agrees, maybe it's worth dropping.
---+
WHO have created a WhatsApp group reaching billions of users with latest info, numbrrs and updates. Maybe worth checking out.

 

[fazer]

He makes a good case but is playing awfully fast and loose with the numbers.  The author is stating as fact things that I have heard real experts say we cannot/do not know right now. He is not a specialist in the field, he is not in the medical field at all.

That said his core argument that we need need aligns with all of the specialists I've seen.

It still is a strong argument (for my understanding ) the need to distance And give the system time to address the problem.  We need mass testing to properly isolate the infected And not overwhelm like South Korea’s success has shown.  I’m a believer .