Brexit

[ramshackles]

There are bigger changes afoot in the West and it would be wiser to notice them, rather than to be mocking Trump at every opportunity.

All over, there is disillusionment with the old politics, parties and globalization.

Macron had to create a new party to win in France, because the old ones were discredited and moribund.

There is Podemos in Spain and the Five Star movement in Italy, Trump is only the American manifestation of the same anti-establishment  undercurrent sweeping the West.  Prime Minister May was smart enough to hitch her wagon to similar movements in the UK and will no doubt win big  in June.

And yes, I have noticed that journalists on most of the internet news sites I visit try to put down Trump at every  gaffe he makes.  They understandably do not like being shut out of the cosy corner they used to have in the establishment.  He has a very difficult job because he is going to be resisted by all the failed political forces that have held power for so long.

Mockery has it's time and place, but it's not a policy or a political movement with a future and we get bored and tired of it in the end.

DaveP

LOL Trump IS establishment

 

[DaveP]

LOL Trump IS establishment

I think by that you mean he is rich and has rich friends.

Macron has a brand new party but no members of parliament at all.  He will have a very hard time trying to get support  from the MP's of other parties.  But the old French parties are caught between a rock and a hard place, if they support Macron it will weaken their own parties, if they don't support him, the voters will punish them for it and might elect Le Pen next time around.

There are similarities with Trump in his situation, he has no power base other than the voters who voted for him.  As Trump has discovered,  getting elected does not guarantee you can get bills passed.

DaveP

 

[Script]

But the old French parties are caught between a rock and a hard place, if they support Macron it will weaken their own parties, if they don't support him, the voters will punish them for it and might elect Le Pen next time around.

Hush hush. Especially about the second half before they notice...

 

[abbey road d enfer]

Trump is only the American manifestation of the same anti-establishment  undercurrent sweeping the West. 

That's about all Macron and Trump have in common.

 

He (Trump) has a very difficult job because he is going to be resisted by all the failed political forces that have held power for so long.

I would say he's currently resisted by almost all political forces, including his own. He boasts of having passed many decrees but most are derisory, and those who were spearheading his campaign have been rejected. Even the one he presents as a real victory, the dismantling of the affordable care, will not pass the senate without many changes. That's purely and simply because his acts are whimsical.

  Mockery has it's time and place, but it's not a policy or a political movement with a future and we get bored and tired of it in the end.

  I think mockery has its place as long as Trump is in power because Trump is "not a political movement with a future". I agree that Americans (and the world) will "get bored and tired of it in the end."

I was in the streets of New York yesterday; many people, hearing my french accent, stopped me and congratulated me (as if I were responsible) for the Macron victory, and, in the same sentence, took the opportunity to denigrate Trump.

 

[JohnRoberts]

That's about all Macron and Trump have in common.

  I would say he's currently resisted by almost all political forces, including his own.

he is not conservative... more of a NYC republican  ;D

He boasts of having passed many decrees but most are derisory,

executive orders are weaker than legislation but he has used many to undo XOs done by the previous administration.

and those who were spearheading his campaign have been rejected.

Some are gone, some still there... (for better and worse).

Even the one he presents as a real victory, the dismantling of the affordable care, will not pass the senate without many changes. That's purely and simply because his acts are whimsical.

It is not whimsy.... many new legislators were elected over the last few cycles on the promise to repeal and kill ACA, so they are just trying to keep their promise..

The easy thing to do is just leave the ACA alone and watch it spiral into the earth  as more insurance companies abandon the unprofitable business model.

The sausage making of legislation is not very attractive to watch, and this one is unusually complicated. For those who have been following this since day one... the original ACA was passed using (budget) reconciliation that only requires a simple majority (to avoid filibuster in senate), after president Obama lost his super majority in the senate.

Using reconciliation to undo the ACA can only deal with budgetary changes, so it can be defunded but real reform to increase competition, tort reform, etc.  will require 60 votes in the senate.

I believe they are trying to do the responsible thing to help the most people. The hyper-political adversarial nature of modern media and overt resistance from democrats may make that legislative process impossible. The only way to keep the (IMO) flawed ACA going as currently written is to throw a ton more money at it. Money we can not afford (long term).

  I think mockery has its place as long as Trump is in power because Trump is "not a political movement with a future". I agree that Americans (and the world) will "get bored and tired of it in the end."

Trump is not a political movement while he surely capitalized on the populism sweeping the world. His anti-elite drain the swamp policy seems to be replacing one elite with another, but at least Trump's elite have better math skills.

I was in the streets of New York yesterday; many people, hearing my french accent, stopped me and congratulated me (as if I were responsible) for the Macron victory, and, in the same sentence, took the opportunity to denigrate Trump.

Shocking that NYC would lean left... ;D ;D ;D  You would get a similar reaction out in CA too.

The public has the right to be as ugly as they want (1st amendment), but I do not like it and find it counter productive to dealing with the real problems we face.

JR

 

[micaddict]

Anyone know what happened to Mattias?

 

[bluebird]

I am with Ian on this with respect to your latest reply. It was beginning to rant and the tone of your last paragraph is cynical and condecending and is more suited to the social media trolling forums.  I think you would probably agree with this in the cold light of time.

He's probably just taking a break and waiting for "the cold light of time" to pass.
Lol, I never heard that one.

 

[micaddict]

It's been two whole weeks since Mattias last posted on this forum.

John, can he still post here if he wants to?

 

[Matador]

He probably realized that, "I convinced someone of my point of view on the Internet" is a sentence that has been neither written nor spoken out loud in the entire history of mankind.  ;D

 

[cyrano]

he is not conservative...

When I first read this, I immediately wanted to disagree with it. But after reflection, I think you're right.

Trump is for change. Even when change means turning back things his predecessors did. And lacking any competence, the change is fairly random, but heavily influenced by business interests he can't ignore.

That means he certainly won't solve our current problems, as there is no ROI on solving those. Even if you are successful, there's no way of proving that your solution worked as you don't know what would have happened if you tried some other solution.

As for Brexit, I fear it's the worst thing that happened to the Brits in a long time. Criminal investigations against Analytics Cambridge seem appropriate in my mind.

 

[JohnRoberts]

It's been two whole weeks since Mattias last posted on this forum.

last active May 4, 2017 but account still active.

John, can he still post here if he wants to?

I am not aware of any reason why he couldn't but do not know his personal situation.

I hope he is OK, but no hurry to re-engage.

JR

PS: If I was going to gong him for his statements made about me, he would have been gone a long time ago. I do not embrace such personal criticism but feel i can turn the other cheek, and encourage  civility by example, rather than enforce it by rule.

 

[tands]

https://twitter.com/GerardDiTrolio/status/865930806170144768

 

[ruffrecords]

https://twitter.com/GerardDiTrolio/status/865930806170144768

LOL

Ian

 

[Script]

-- Election outcome --

Fascinating!

As always, some will shout 'rigged'! Other might start to think that May is deeper after all than she has had anyone believe...

UKIP were the outsiders back in the referendum (not that many voters after all), and now another outsider. Anyway, being an outsider or being hated by one's own party seems to be a seal of quality in these anti-establishment days.

Interesting turn of development, iindeed.

 

[ramshackles]

I woke up to a slightly desperate Ms May repeating the same meaningless mantra ('strong and stable...stability....strong...stable..').
The arrogant old bat has already stated there is no way she will resign.
Good to see that UKIP was annihilated.

 

[DaveP]

This is the worst possible outcome, the only chink of light is that the break-up of the UK is now a dead duck, after the drubbing of the SNP in Scotland.

After the shock of the Brexit result, millions of young people have registered to vote and voted for Corbyn.  He has promised to remove tuition fees for Universities and put money into public services, he has not said how we can pay for that except by increasing our borrowing.  They are too young to have witnessed his behaviour as a rebel MP in the past.

As a pensioner reliant on the exchange rate, I have lost another 5-10% of my income, 18% since last year.

DaveP

 

[Script]

May says she won't resign? Is that even possible (in a democracy)?

I don't really see the pound-to-Euro exchange rate reacting to the election outcome (yet). Since  theJune 2016 low, it has been going sideways bouncing between what, 0.84 and 0.87 (with a peak of 0.91 in October)? That's about the same level as in 2013. The effect of Brexit, on the other hand,  is obvious in the GBP/EUR exchnge rate chart. Going up, going up (due to QE) and than the cliffs of Dover.

 

[ruffrecords]

This is the worst possible outcome, the only chink of light is that the break-up of the UK is now a dead duck, after the drubbing of the SNP in Scotland.
DaveP

I agree. Looks like the kids were fooled again by Labour's promises of freebies that they will only have to pay for later. The usual shortsightedness. Unfortunately none of them was around in the 70s the last time the Labour party shafted the country's economy with similar policies. The only thing I agree with is education should be free. It is the single greatest investment we can make in our future.

Whatever you think of May, stability is what we need now but I hardly see how she can deliver it. But compared to Corbyn she is the lesser of two weevils.

Cheers

Ian

 

[Script]

(Double post, sorry!)

Free education? Absolutely. For tapping talent nationwide and across groups of people independent of parental income and status.

 

[micaddict]

Brilliant move, Theresa.

Back in April Script wrote:

New elections announced for June 8.

Nice idea but four months too llate...

DaveP:

Not really, May's popularity is rising and Corbyn's is rock bottom now, perfect timing.

DaveP

Script:

A two thirds majority is needed in parliament first though.

Ruffrecords:

Very likely to get it