A theory: Trump is free to provide the grand distraction and feed his outsized ego as "leader of the 'free' world" while the big business foxes guard the henhouse, largely hidden from view by the shadow cast by Trump. Trump will be free to throw a little red meat to the loonies of the right while doing nothing to screw up things for big business (which is to say, no taxes on the wealthy, and absolutely nothing will be done to stem the flow of cheap legal and illegal (im)migrant labor intothe country.) The "deplorables" are too stupid to realize that they've been used yet again, and they will continue to live in their world of fear, hatred, and irrational conspiracy theories.
Donald trump. what is your take on him?
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hodad said:
I have never denied that the earth is warming. It warms and cools in regular cycles over millions of years. The science that it is warming recently is inarguable (a simple observation). However the science that humans are responsible for that warming is far from settled.
see http://climatechange.procon.org for pro and con citations.
Yes the solar output dramatically changes in shorter and longer cycles (observation) and dominates the earth's heat input (a lesser amount of heat comes from nuclear reactions in the core). Heat retention/loss is a very complex marginal effect that is not well enough understood to use predictively (opinion). The "pro" premise is that increased carbon (CO2) from human industrialization is the driving force for warming. Carbon was found to accompany distant past pre-industrial warming periods (from ice cores), and a plausible explanation for that is that the warm periods caused the increase in CO2 (from increased plant activity), not the other way around.
I do not claim that human activity makes zero difference, but I am confident the government's activity will do nothing but hurt the economy and the human standard of life. A true scientific consensus should include me. I remain unconvinced.
Back in the 60's my summer job in a machine shop was supporting Columbia University's oceanographic research ships (taking cores and soundings from the ocean bottom). My brother did a gig working as a hand on one of the ships. In 1970 I was hired to support electronics for the crude satellite navigation used on one ship. My draft board had different plans for me, and instead I ended up in the army, instead of working on a research ship in the South Pacific.
I will resist responding to you several other similar personal call outs.procon sez said:
JR
PS: In hindsight my strategy worked... I predicted Hillary would win (as did numerous polls and even the stock markets). Just like every other recent election my prediction was completely wrong. 8) 8) 8)
desol
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DaveP said:I also find it extraordinary that Clinton didn't turn up to her own rally
I really don't find it extraordinary; the race was over. Considering the emotions and everything else, everyone needed some time to breath and let it sink in. 14 hours isn't going make or break anything, or say anything about anyone.
ruffrecords
Well-known member
Banzai said:
Perhaps you should have had a referendum instead?
Cheers
Ian
No reason to lighten up.fazer said:
There's no excuse for the hatred that was purposely cultivated--either the long-con GOP cultivation going back to Nixon's Southern Strategy, or the rabid xenophobic lunacy of Donald Trump. There's a bunch of sad individuals out there who blame all their troubles on Mexicans and Muslims and Blacks and Queers--all these nice stereotypical enemies that were present and accounted for at my son's school this morning. There's plenty of problems that folks have a right to be upset about, but they have no freaking idea what they're talking about when they start demonizing the Other. They've been manipulated and used in a frightening way. As old, bitter white people die off and this country becomes more colorful, as more Americans stop hating stereotypes and start caring about people, things might improve. But it's a really dark day for American politics, and for the American news media.
madswitcher
Well-known member
Time to focus on Trump's vice president, 'cos if Trump fulfils some of the promises he's made, he's sure to be impeached.
Time for the whole of humanity to take a deep breath.
Mike
Time for the whole of humanity to take a deep breath.
Mike
M
mattiasNYC
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I agree with Hodad.....
This is a demographic artifact of the democrats winning more votes than they can use in heavily democratic and populous states like NY and CA. Not the first time this happened or last.Banzai said:
We are not a simple democracy and the electoral college kept it interesting last night to well past my ability or desire to stay awake.
JR
PS: The amount of post election enmity seems unusual, while I guess we should not be surprised. I talked to a friend today who mentioned that his 8th grade daughter had friends who were un-friending each other over the election outcome. Last time I checked 8th graders don't vote. I guess there are a lot of people today behaving like 8th grade girls.
JR, one last poke before I quit. Those vaunted "1000 scientists" referenced in that quote--how many of those were actual climate scientists? If memory serves, the merest handful. Gathering up a thousand curmudgeonly cranks who have a BS in something (in addition to their BS in BS, obviously) can't be too hard--thanks to this miracle tool called the internet, I could probably do that in an afternoon.
Science is not a poll, or call to authority where my experts trump your experts (pun not intended but recognized). It's about experiments, thesis , and results that prove or disprove the thesis. I only responded in kind to your call to authority (I didn't even read that website just googled it in a couple seconds).hodad said:
Government is approaching this like politics, because that is the only hammer in their tool kit (trust us we're from the government and "our" experts say this). I am as suspicious of government experts as corporate experts, both are working different personal economic angles.
If the science was compelling (it isn't), I would already be convinced. I favor more research but as it stands now the government research money flows to the scientists publishing the most politically correct conclusions. This is not remotely how science should work. There should not be incentives for results either way (no doubt corporate funded research pursues results favorable to corporate interests.
Politics is the art of making complex issues seem simple to win uncritical support... this is just another not very simple issue politicized to seem simple.
JR
Hodad: I don't hate people but you sure sound like you hate a group that decided not to voice their feeling to pollsters. How about way to much money being spent to political consultants when they make a fortune telling superpacts how to spend 4 billion dollars on an election and get nothing for all that money. Time to repeal citizen united, because it sure doesn't serve the people or the 1%. Time to put money in the infrastructure of America. 5.5 Trillion dollars spent on a complete destabilization of the middle east accomplish what? That could rebuilt our country's infrastructure and we would have cities, highways bridges dams, secure internet and so much more. Instead we choose to fight a cold war that ended in 1989. Eisenhower said if NATO was around in 10 year then it was a failure. So here we are 60 years later. It's time for a change. And all I hope for is that the president rises to the position of the title to serve the people who elected them and who didn't elect them the same. How is your health care premiums this year. Where does that go to from here. What about 1.5 trillion in student loan debt. Colleges should be half responsible for student default. Why would they care when there is no skin in the game. There are a lot of things to fix and in the end its up to the people to fix things, starting with whats in there own local communities.
PS: Is peace or is it Prozac. At 65 I want to join the workforce again. I'm tired of being in a rage. I vow to do more music and less hate.
PS: Is peace or is it Prozac. At 65 I want to join the workforce again. I'm tired of being in a rage. I vow to do more music and less hate.
fazer, if you're talking to me about hate, well....I actually am sympathetic in some ways with Trump voters and their problems. In my days of listening to conservative talk radio I'd often find myself in sympathy with a caller until he or she started casting blame or talking up "solutions" to their problems--that's when the right wing nuttiness so carefully nurtured for so many years would rear its ugly head. You mention infrastructure? Sounds great. Didn't Barack Obama get hamstrung on that one by the GOP early on in his administration? Repeal Citizens United? I'm down with that. Do you really think that's going to happen with Trump or a GOP Congress? Destabilizing the Middle East? Yeah, that was another awesome thing that Republicans foisted on us.
I'm not particularly well off. I face many of the same problems as a lot of Trump supporters, but I don't see that voting for a narcissistic crackpot is the solution to anything. And I think race-baiting and xenophobia in the political arena are deplorable--feeding hatred and fear for political gain is not something I can stomach.
Oh, and fazer, I was thinking it's time for more music as well.
I'm not particularly well off. I face many of the same problems as a lot of Trump supporters, but I don't see that voting for a narcissistic crackpot is the solution to anything. And I think race-baiting and xenophobia in the political arena are deplorable--feeding hatred and fear for political gain is not something I can stomach.
Oh, and fazer, I was thinking it's time for more music as well.
Sorry JR, but 1000 scientists is nothing compared to the millions of scientists the world over who agree we are causing the problem. I've said this before, but in the early 1800's a British scientist hitched rides with the Royal Navy to every corner of the globe to check the CO2 level. They thought back then, that it might be higher in big cities due to human respiration. They did not know about Brownian motion and equilibria back then, so they were surprised to find that it was around 200ppm the world over.
This forms the baseline of human activity from where we trace the exponential curve to the present day 400ppm. It is not very difficult to construct global models that tie the warming to CO2 levels. It was very much hotter in the dinosaurs time because all the CO2 we are burning now was in the air back then before it got laid down as plant fossil coal.
All the worlds Countries would not have signed up to the Climate bill if there had been any doubt at all. I would like to see out of work miners re-trained to work on alternative energy projects, there is money to be made there for sure and infrastructure to build, we all need a 21st Century New Deal. Warning: this may be me just looking for the silver lining again
DaveP
This forms the baseline of human activity from where we trace the exponential curve to the present day 400ppm. It is not very difficult to construct global models that tie the warming to CO2 levels. It was very much hotter in the dinosaurs time because all the CO2 we are burning now was in the air back then before it got laid down as plant fossil coal.
All the worlds Countries would not have signed up to the Climate bill if there had been any doubt at all. I would like to see out of work miners re-trained to work on alternative energy projects, there is money to be made there for sure and infrastructure to build, we all need a 21st Century New Deal. Warning: this may be me just looking for the silver lining again
DaveP
desol
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hodad said:
I remember reading something a few years ago, involving reputable professional sources, that climate change could indeed be in effect caused by the cyclical, and normal magnetic changes that happen on earth and possibly the interaction between or independent of the sun. Normal, magnetic cyclical changes. I'm sure carbon dioxide doesn't help....suggesting that this indeed could be the cause.
Things aren't always as they first appear to be and are often more complicated than first suggested. What's important tho, i think, is that we are trying to understand.
Anyway...off topic.
dmp
Well-known member
The Republicans now own this and I think a lot of harm is going to be done. Time will tell.
micaddict
Well-known member
Denying climate change by human hand is actually a job.
Well-paid, too.
Not one that's clearly visible for the tax system, though.
And guess who benefit.
Exactly...
But even that isn't vital.
It's dropping it often enough that does the trick.
Exactly...
Well-paid, too.
Not one that's clearly visible for the tax system, though.
And guess who benefit.
Exactly...
But even that isn't vital.
It's dropping it often enough that does the trick.
Exactly...
Back to the election, I live in Colorado. Its considered a swing state. I think we got more negative advertising than some of the non-swing states. I saw a very ugly attack on Trump with 2 ads for everyone of Trumps anti Hillary ads. The Democrats out spent the Republicans. After a while you are imploding by the media that makes a fortune to bring this crap to the election. This is out of control and the system blew up. Trump is a wild card but to me he defeated both parties not just the Democrats. Both parties are interested in dividing the people and making them blame each other rather than the elitist polices that serve the parties themselves (I guess us deplorable's are to stupid to understand). I blame Republicans just as much as Democrats for the mess we are in with 20 Trillion and counting to payback. Somewhere that money needs to be paid back. It usually comes in the form of inflation. When your not well off and, not many of us are), you can't afford the inflation caused by that kind of empty spending. Retirement planning, insurance planning goes out the window with heavy inflation.
I believe that building as well as rebuilding infrastructure will employ construction workers and technology workers, that can keep money back in the country but it would be great if the steel came from America instead of China even if it means a higher price or a tariff on China's dumping of steel to destroy the various steel industries in this country. I can't believe it's cheaper to fly airplanes to china to service them compared to all the Airplane mechanic's now unemployed due this change in the airline industry service policies.
I've heard that we have a 400 billion dollar trade imbalance. The Global economy has to have a balance. If not the golden goose is cooked.
I believe that building as well as rebuilding infrastructure will employ construction workers and technology workers, that can keep money back in the country but it would be great if the steel came from America instead of China even if it means a higher price or a tariff on China's dumping of steel to destroy the various steel industries in this country. I can't believe it's cheaper to fly airplanes to china to service them compared to all the Airplane mechanic's now unemployed due this change in the airline industry service policies.
I've heard that we have a 400 billion dollar trade imbalance. The Global economy has to have a balance. If not the golden goose is cooked.
dmp
Well-known member
It is not known what causes ice ages and CO2 has lagged temperature in the past, indicating it did not cause temperature change before human action. Differences in solar radiation levels is a theory in the climate puzzle.
But draw a control volume around the earth and apply the 1st law of thermodynamics.
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is known to increase trapped heat.
Fossil fuels are a storage term in the earth.
Reacting the stored fossil fuels to CO2 is known to have an influencing effect on the energy balance of the earth, increasing trapped heat, and hence global temperature. Many more positive and negative feedback are in play too, complicating the system even further. It is easy to obfuscate the issue.
Is it possible a coming ice age won't counter effect the CO2 effect? Yes, but it is entirely unknown and most likely hundreds of thousands of years away. The rapid temperature change we are seeing now is real and significant. The rational and intelligent conclusion to make is that humans should alter the environment as little as possible. Not just CO2, but other pollution as well.
The progress in sustainable, clean alternative energy took a terrible blow last night. Much progress will be unwound in the coming years.
But draw a control volume around the earth and apply the 1st law of thermodynamics.
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is known to increase trapped heat.
Fossil fuels are a storage term in the earth.
Reacting the stored fossil fuels to CO2 is known to have an influencing effect on the energy balance of the earth, increasing trapped heat, and hence global temperature. Many more positive and negative feedback are in play too, complicating the system even further. It is easy to obfuscate the issue.
Is it possible a coming ice age won't counter effect the CO2 effect? Yes, but it is entirely unknown and most likely hundreds of thousands of years away. The rapid temperature change we are seeing now is real and significant. The rational and intelligent conclusion to make is that humans should alter the environment as little as possible. Not just CO2, but other pollution as well.
The progress in sustainable, clean alternative energy took a terrible blow last night. Much progress will be unwound in the coming years.
I heard someone on NPR the other day discuss ( can't remember who) that 7 billion people on the planet, is only possible because of oil and coal. That without oil and coal, currently the earth could only support 1 billion people. Like Ian said a long time ago in a post, "what about the elephant in the room, Over Population". I don't know a way to plant and harvest crops for 7 billion people without oil for both tractors and fertilizer.
