Donald trump. what is your take on him?

[living sounds]

Thanks for posting that Niall Ferguson article, interesting stuff.


Trump's views on science and general scientific illiteracy are stunning as well:

https://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/donald-trumps-presidential-election-win-stuns-scientists/

 

[mattiasNYC]

Very good article.
"Populism isn't Fascism"
The rapid rise of immigration and globalisation looks to be the main cause, since 1970.

The "Occupy wall street" movement (anti-globalisation) seems strange bedfellows with Trumps followers.

DaveP

Well, I think "cause" is maybe a strong word to use there. I mean, I don't actually mean to argue semantics, perhaps we're in agreement, but I just wanted to point out that a lot of times immigration is absolutely fine to a population as long as the economy is doing ok. Once people find their wallets are thinner they start looking for the goat....

 

[DaveP]

I think we are in agreement,

1970 was the start of western manufacturing decline as products from Japan , Taiwan and south Korea moved in and jobs went to the far east.  The fact that immigration started again in earnest, only served to make matters worse.

The same thing happened in the UK and France as Les Trente Glorieuses came to an end.

DaveP

 

[living sounds]

Analysts had sufficient time to dig through the data now. Clinton lost due to lower democratic turnout than in previous elections:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov11.html#item-1

 

[dmp]

Yup. Low participation.

 

[DaveP]

Good data but they did not draw the obvious conclusion.

The democrats had more reason to vote to keep Trump out than to keep Romney out, but even the prospect of a Trump presidency was not enough to make them get out and vote for Clinton.  (Romney got more votes).

If they had picked Sanders they would have had a candidate with no baggage and I doubt Trump would have won.

The Clinton juggernaut just rode over Bernie so they only have themselves to blame.

DaveP

 

[Gold]

The democrats had more reason to vote to keep Trump out than to keep Romney out, but even the prospect of a Trump presidency was not enough to make them get out and vote for Clinton.  (He got more votes).

Clinton won the popular vote by about 200,000 votes. Trump won the electoral college.  Like Bush/Gore. The electoral college skews the results to the less populous states. The population density of the coasts is under represented.

 

[dmp]

If they had picked Sanders they would have had a candidate with no baggage and I doubt Trump would have won.
The Clinton juggernaut just rode over Bernie so they only have themselves to blame.

As they say 20/20 hindsight is perfect.


The market is expecting a huge jump in inflation - prepare yourselves.

 

[JohnRoberts]

As they say 20/20 hindsight is perfect.


The market is expecting a huge jump in inflation - prepare yourselves.

The central bankers have been trying to increase inflation to meet 1.7%-2% inflation targets.  Last US inflation measure was 1.5% but there is always debate about how it is measured. Central bankers have been afraid of deflation like what gripped Japan and eroded GDP growth.

I hope you are correct, I doubled my GLD holdings earlier today. This new purchase will reduce my cost basis since I bought my first tranche at a higher price some time ago (gold has been falling for a while). 

Higher inflation will help debt holders pay back loans with cheaper dollars (won't help me).  It will make it easier to manage our huge sovereign debt, while the increasing interest rates will make the debt service on that harder.

It might be smart while bond rates are so low to issue some really long term government bonds to fund infrastructure spending, maybe swap out some of the shorter term debt. 

JR

 

[mattiasNYC]

If there's an increase in hate crime as a result of his campaign as predicted I hope he at least has the decency to tax you guys who are now benefiting financially from his election, seeing that that's your primary concern.

 

[pucho812]

Only hate crime I have seen is from non-trump supports. 

For example beating the older guy because they claimed he voted from trump and then stealing his car, like what happened in Chicago is not good for anyone.

Kids beat at school for supporting trump is not an answer either.

Best was the viral video of the mom kicking out what looks about an 8 year old because he voted for trump  in a faux school election with the reason I saw him a lot on T.V. He is a fucking kid. let it go.

yeah man rise in hate crime for sure.

 

[dmp]

The central bankers have been trying to increase inflation to meet 1.7%-2% inflation targets.  Last US inflation measure was 1.5% but there is always debate about how it is measured. Central bankers have been afraid of deflation like what gripped Japan and eroded GDP growth.
I hope you are correct, I doubled my GLD holdings earlier today. This new purchase will reduce my cost basis since I bought my first tranche at a higher price some time ago (gold has been falling for a while).
Higher inflation will help debt holders pay back loans with cheaper dollars (won't help me).  It will make it easier to manage our huge sovereign debt, while the increasing interest rates will make the debt service on that harder.
It might be smart while bond rates are so low to issue some really long term government bonds to fund infrastructure spending, maybe swap out some of the shorter term debt. 

Sounds like you've become a little more positive on inflation this week 

Maybe the Fed is paying attention to the will of the people and the President elect when they meet in December.

 

[JohnRoberts]

If there's an increase in hate crime as a result of his campaign as predicted I hope he at least has the decency to tax you guys who are now benefiting financially from his election, seeing that that's your primary concern.

How many times do I need to repeat that Hillary was the perceived vote to help the stock market. The rally since was completely unexpected, and likely to moderate. I don't earn enough money to pay high taxes (do you want to buy a drum tuner? Great Christmas presents). If I was voting my self-interest Hillary would be the logical box to check. Believe it or not I was voting your self-interest and others like you. I'll be OK either way (i'm old and have adequate beer money to last me years).

I am hopeful that Trump will do something about the gun violence in cities like Chicago. While it shouldn't be the federal government's responsibility. The city governments don't seem to be effective  there and a number of other cities.

Cleaning up the sanctuary cities may also clear out a criminal element that is not being dealt with properly. Before you accuse me of something I am only talking about the illegal immigrants with criminal records that get deported and come back, that are a source of criminal activity and gravitate toward sanctuary cities for obvious reasons,   

We'll see if we have more or less hate... Right now there seems to be a lot of emotion and anger coming from the left. I have long thought that the racial enmity has been stirred from the top political leaders trying to win votes. Apparently it didn't work this time as Obama's coattails didn't help Hillary.

I hope the predictions of increased hate crime are as wrong and the predictions that  Hillary would win.

JR

 

[nielsk]

"And why do people only want to root out crimes and corruption when it's the other side doing it?"

Probably has something to do with the severity of the crimes...
Kennedy may well have committed several crimes in cahoots with the mob to get elected, though scant evidence exists.
Most folks that do not live under rocks are aware of some of Nixon's crimes, among others the recently released phone taps of his conversations with the  Vietnamese (aka conspiring with a foreign power to influence the outcome of an election, sound familiar?)
The list of crimes committed by Reagan is almost too long to get into, but well documented (from paying the Ayatollah to keep the hostages past the election to funding covert operations in South America by selling cocaine to US citizens to trading arms for hostages... oh, my how the list goes on!)
President Cheney and little GB  have some 500,000 murders of women and children on their tally in their oh so successful war-mongering endeavor of diverting taxpayers money to them selves and their friends, and lying to American public to accomplish it, as well as ACTUAL email crime using the RNC servers to handle the email traffic of their criminal endeavors to hide the trail
THEN you have the Democrats, Clinton lying about getting a blow job (that was the result of a Republican sting op  conducted by Lynda Trip) and the non-crimes of Hillary using a personal server (which, BTW, did NOT get hacked, while the federal government's DID)...

Does this help to illustrate why?

 

[DaveP]

What has surprised me as an outside observer, has been the level of violence that has come from the left, quite the opposite of what we have been led to expect.

There were violent demos at Trump venues and now rioting in various cities.  It's like these 20 somethings have been brainwashed into thinking that anyone to the right of their point of view is another potential Hitler who must be stopped at all costs.  Anyone who questions this dogma is branded as naive as the pre-war German people.  Where did this come from....University professors?

Smashing shops and torching cars will not help their cause.

DaveP

 

[JohnRoberts]

Sounds like you've become a little more positive on inflation this week 

Maybe the Fed is paying attention to the will of the people and the President elect when they meet in December.

I don't know about the will of the people but Trump was critical of Yellen during his campaign. He has since said that he won't fire her (not sure if he could). The fed is not supposed to be political, but they sound pretty political when they testify to congress.

I have long been promoting higher GDP growth (i expect higher inflation with higher growth). President Obama looks like he may be the first president since Herbert Hoover to NOT preside over at least one year of 3% GDP growth.  I expect the knee jerk answer "it is Bush's fault", or "its different this time". Lets watch GDP growth the next few years after republican tax reform and review of regulations.

I am much more optimistic now, of course I could always be wrong.  ;D ;D ;D

JR

 

[living sounds]

Only hate crime I have seen is from non-trump supports. 

Maybe you get your "news" from an echo chamber?

 

[dmp]

Hey everyone - let's try to wake up from the media brainwashing.
If you are just getting your news from a facebook feed or other partisan aggregate news outlets / talk radio, you're being fed a story. You are being manipulated.
The stories you are seeing are not necessarily untrue, but you are suffering from a selection bias - you are only seeing part of the story, leading to false conclusions.
There have been protests from liberals upset with the election. There have been incidents of racial/sexist hate from the alt right.
If you want to be a smart, informed person,  take in BOTH viewpoints and try for a neutral point of view.

 

[JohnRoberts]

What has surprised me as an outside observer, has been the level of violence that has come from the left, quite the opposite of what we have been led to expect.

There were violent demos at Trump venues and now rioting in various cities.  It's like these 20 somethings have been brainwashed into thinking that anyone to the right of their point of view is another potential Hitler who must be stopped at all costs.  Anyone who questions this dogma is branded as naive as the pre-war German people.  Where did this come from....University professors?

Smashing shops and torching cars will not help their cause.

DaveP

The joke with more than a kernel of truth is that you don't see Trump protesters because they have jobs and are at work.  8)

I don't recall seeing any street protests after President Obama was elected despite the millions who voted against him.

Yes there is a disconnect between the popular media characterizations and reality. This too will become more clear over time as the spinners wind down.

This is just an election, not the end of the world, like some snowflakes in college have been led to expect. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad, yet another failure of our education system that is leaving our younger generation unprepared for real life. 

JR

 

[DaveP]

Sources:

BBC:    http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37953712

ITV:      http://www.itv.com/news/2016-11-11/donald-trump-attacks-the-media-for-inciting-protests/

Sky:      http://news.sky.com/story/trump-accuses-media-of-inciting-professional-protesters-10652739

France24:    http://www.france24.com/en/20161111-second-night-anti-donald-trump-presidential-protests-across-usa

Is this what you call an echo chamber?

I don't do FB just for the record, it's for kids and people with too much time on their hands.

DaveP