The Middle East Friendship Chart

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I hope I'm not repeating myself.

WWW said:
The Biden administration expects Iran will be able to amass enough material to produce a nuclear weapon in less than a year — even if the 2015 agreement among Washington, Tehran and five other nations is revived, according to a new report.

Less than one year from nuclear weapons is an eye blink, a heartbeat... What exactly is the point of a less than one year deal?

JR
 
It looks like Iran nuclear deal talks have broken down

WWW said:
Negotiations in Vienna over Tehran’s tattered nuclear deal hit a “pause” over Russian demands about sanctions targeting Moscow for its war on Ukraine.

A number of missiles landed in Irbil (northern Iraq) launched from Iran.

WWW said:
Iran has claimed responsibility for a missile barrage that struck early Sunday near a sprawling U.S. consulate complex in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil, saying it was retaliation for an Israeli strike in Syria that killed two members of its Revolutionary Guard.

JR
 
This may just be coincidence ( :rolleyes:) but has anyone else noted the timing of the drone strike that killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul? One might conclude that this is to distract from the one year anniversary of the disastrous Afghan pull-out and collapse. Reportedly he was identified in Kabul as early as December of last year and has been watched for several months.

As the saying goes this guy needed killing (mastermind for 9/11 attacks and more), so good job for that.

Coincidentally, the mismanaged Afghan pullout was supposed to be a victorious photo op for the anniversary of the original 9/11 attack. Looks like maybe the same guy managed the timing of that al-Zawahiri killing. He was reportedly sick and old. The Taliban is showing their true sentiments. Anybody who thinks Afghanistan is not a festering hot bed of terrorist has not been paying attention. The next question is who steps up to be the new leader of al queda This image of President Biden discussing the strike
Biden-counterterrorism-meeting.png

Meeting was July 1.... President Biden tested positive for covid July 21, and suffered a rebound covid case Saturday Jul 30 (so he should still be in isolation)...

JR
 
We are coming around to the 1 year anniversary of our embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan effectively surrendering the country to the Taliban. The WH is dismissing GOP review as partisan ( suspect it is at least in part).

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Connecting a few dots our strategic oil reserve was created for emergency use. Only tapped twice after hurricanes briefly. The current rate of depletion to lower pump prices (for political benefit ahead of midterms) will drain almost 40% if they continue on plan. UK and EU are currently filling up their NG reserves in anticipation of a cold and uncertain winter. Hopefully we can ship some more of our surplus NG to the EU.

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US military weapons stores are being depleted by support of Ukraine's war effort with munitions, and not being restocked quickly. This effectively diminishes our military readiness. China is watching this as they make increasingly aggressive advances against Taiwan. I can't read minds, but suspect China is paying close attention to all this.

JR
 
The middle east is always on the boil but recent events in Iran seem noteworthy. A 22YO Iranian woman died in police custody after being arrested and beaten by the morality police over a hijab (head covering) rule violation. The Iran government has shut down internet to slow protests spreading. It appears the younger population is not pleased with the rulers.

JR
 
The middle east is always on the boil but recent events in Iran seem noteworthy. A 22YO Iranian woman died in police custody after being arrested and beaten by the morality police over a hijab (head covering) rule violation. The Iran government has shut down internet to slow protests spreading. It appears the younger population is not pleased with the rulers.

JR
The protests in Iran that began after a woman died in custody of the morality police are still going with other groups (like unions) joining the protest. Reportedly something like 277 protestors have been killed, with charges filed against over a thousand more. A pattern that plays out is that funerals for killed protestors trigger more protests so it can build upon itself.
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Iran is actively supporting Russia selling them drone weapons and even training the Russian military near the battlefield.
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Russia withdrew support for Ukraine shipping food from ports in the Black Sea. Ukraine has continued to ship more despite the obvious threat of Russia withdrawing security. This continuing food supply is a good thing for the world.This is part of a UN program negotiated by Turkey.
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Iraq finally seated a government almost a year after the vote.

JR
 
The middle east is still making news.

After 9 months it looks like Putin is trying to inflict maximum discomfort on the Ukraine by bombing power and water infrastructure. Reportedly Putin is running low on ammunition, Ukraine has deeper pockets supporting them but it is still not a cake walk.

Russia is already getting drones from Iran to use against Ukraine, but just for chuckles Iran has popped a few drones into Kurdish military installations in northern Iraq? Apparently the female killed a few months ago for not wearing a head scarf that started these protests in Iran was Kurdish. Iran is accusing the Kurds in Iraq of fomenting dissent in Iran. The leadership in Iran has reached out to significant moderate opposition families asking them for support but they have declined.

In response to a rebuke from the IAEA for failure to cooperate, Iran has announced that it has started production of near weapons grade Uranium at a second enrichment facility. And the Biden administration still thinks they restart deal and prevent Iran from going nuclear. :unsure:

JR
 
I have noticed two trends in the middle east that strike me as interesting in comparison...

#1 The Taliban government is suspending all secondary education for females.

#2 Young Iranian women are openly flaunting rules regarding women wearing head coverings (hajib) in public.

It appears that several months of widespread public protests has moved the needle toward a more moderate position at least in Iran. Afghanistan is reverting back to former conservative religious ways (while religious scholars do not find support for denying female education).

JR
 
Reportedly hundreds of protesters have been killed so this is not without cost. I hope the Iranian people win more freedom with less sacrifice.
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I can't be very optimistic about Afghanistan, they seem to be moving backwards in time.

JR
 
I US weapons (jets) sale to Turkey is pending in congress, but it looks like there may be a quid pro quo regarding Turkey's opposition to letting Sweden and Norway join NATO. Norway and Sweden offer sanctuary for the Kurdish opposition that Turkey considers terrorists. So Turkey is unhappy about allowing them into NATO.

Curious...

JR
 
I just read an article today in WSJ saying that Russian energy revenue is down significantly because of EU sanctions, US price limits, and "warm weather". China and India are buying as much Russian energy as they can get, but at bottom dollar prices.
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POTUS just publicly claimed that he would refill the SPR at a profit, :rolleyes: while still selling oil from the reserve. They need to refill with oil that costs <$70, more than 10% lower than the current price. We are expecting recession later this year that could impact oil prices negatively while China's reversal on Zero Covid policy and economic reopening could be a positive for world oil demand and oil prices.

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The Taliban in Afghanistan has killed a few former female legislators, continuing the reversal of women's rights there.

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Iran is trying a different strategy regarding policing hair covering by women. Instead of arresting woman (pretty much what started the protests when one woman died in custody), now they are fining the woman who break the rules.

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JR
 
It's just something I heard from a friend, who's analyzing economic numbers as a job. He mentioned the word "recession" is all over the press, but he sees no indication of it.

Besides, his prediction that energy prices wouldn't rise as much as some predicted also seems to be true. You can suspect that mild temperatures in Europe have something to do with that, but he's not into weather predictions...
 
It's just something I heard from a friend, who's analyzing economic numbers as a job. He mentioned the word "recession" is all over the press, but he sees no indication of it.
in the US some politicians have tried to redefine what a "recession" is. The classic economic definition is two subsequent quarters of negative GDP (growth). That was inconvenient for the party in power so they rejected that definition and made up their own.

The media glom onto anything that they think could scare people.
Besides, his prediction that energy prices wouldn't rise as much as some predicted also seems to be true. You can suspect that mild temperatures in Europe have something to do with that, but he's not into weather predictions...
current or recent past weather is an objective fact.

There has been an energy price scrum going on with Russia trying to influence EU sentiment by withholding gas supplies. Other gas sellers have stepped up to make up the difference, and Europe has been lucky with relatively mild weather (so far).
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To keep this topical Greta Thunberg (that Greta Thunberg) was arrested protesting German coal mine expansion. Germany has turned to burning more coal to make up for inadequate gas supplies, and having recently shuttered a couple old nuclear plants.

Coal is not very green compared to nuclear or NG, but is better than freezing.

JR
 
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Greta Thunberg) was arrested protesting
Heard this morning that the arrest was staged. But seems like everything is, except rockets hitting apartment building in Ukraine. Europe and US keep feeding weapons and defense plants everywhere save us from the recession. And the politicians increase the insider traded stock portfolio.
 
This wasn't about the Ukraine but there has been criticism of little and late support from US and west. It seems if we gave them the support we gave them later, much earlier before the war started, it might not have ever started, but these hypothetical analysis can be conflicted.

The latest hang up is that Germany is insisting that the US give them tanks first, before Germany will share their tanks with Ukraine, that are a better fit for the region, and will trigger the release of more German tanks from other neighbors in the region (like Poland, etc), already using German tanks.

JR
 
Coal is not very green compared to nuclear or NG, but is better than freezing.

The reason Germany is allowing this isn't so much they need or even want coal, it's an agreement that was made way before the war started.

The company that owns this particular mine was allowed this expansion only if they stopped mining in a number of years. That would make it a bit easier to digest the closure financially. If not, the German tax payer would have to pay a lot more for the end of coal-mining...

The Greta Thunberg arrest was staged, as she came over just to get arrested. Even the German police saw the advantage: once she was gone, the other protesters would also leave. And that's what happened. Germany can be a very formal country...

You have to take into account that this occupation had been going on for years. It wasn't a recent thing, only the media didn't pay much attention to it until recently.
 
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