The Middle East Friendship Chart
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ISIS seems alone in having zero state or group allies, but there are several with only a few. That matrix was last updated in 2014 so may be obsoleted as the sand shifts around in the ME desert.. One pretty obvious major player missing from that matrix is Russia. There may be more errors/changes, but that isn't the point.desol said:
It was just an excuse to bring up recent ME news that most western media blissfully ignores for the "dirty laundry" (and awkward POTUS tweets) du jour.
JR
That was easy.. :desol said:
: but the united states is not in the middle east either using that (flawed) logic.Never mind..
JR
desol
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JohnRoberts said:That was easy.. :
Never mind..
JR
Well, I didn't intend it to be flawed, I meant it to be logical.
It's kind of silly that the united states is even on that chart(isn't it?), as you pointed out. Obviously, they're knee deep in it.
In fact China is increasingly active in the region, more with investments (Belt and Road infrastructure initiative) than military support, but it still gains them influence. ($62B transportation infrastructure projects in Pakistan and IIRC some smaller mining ventures in Afghanistan).
There is a lot of ME news that gets little notice in the West (here at least).
JR
There is a lot of ME news that gets little notice in the West (here at least).
JR
Nice pivot :desol said:
but that was also my point... that matrix was last updated in 2014 and Russia's expanding involvement in Syria (and with Iran) in the region is since that matrix was drawn. I am talking about now, only the future can be changed. Turkey is negotiating with Russia over a no-fire zone in Syria protecting the last few million of Assad's opposition. The safety of this zone is in question due to poor/no cooperation from various terrorist factions in the region, not to mention that Turkey considers Kurds (American allies) to be terrorists. This probably won't end until more there are dead.
It is notable how few wealthy countries in the region accept migrants often literally running for their lives. Another reason so many risk the dangerous sea crossing to get feet in the EU. The Idlib region is pretty much landlocked so migrants would have to traverse Syrian army controlled ground to reach the Mediterranean, and the Turkish border is pretty much closed to them. Not a good end game for anti-Assad rebels, since Russia (and Iran) stepped up support for Assad.
JR
desol
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JohnRoberts said:Nice pivot :
Turkey is negotiating with Russia over a no-fire zone in Syria protecting the last few million of Assad's opposition. The safety of this zone is in question due to poor/no cooperation from various terrorist factions in the region, not to mention that Turkey considers Kurds (American allies) to be terrorists. This probably won't end until more there are dead.
It is notable how few wealthy countries in the region accept migrants often literally running for their lives. Another reason so many risk the dangerous sea crossing to get feet in the EU. The Idlib region is pretty much landlocked so migrants would have to traverse Syrian army controlled ground to reach the Mediterranean, and the Turkish border is pretty much closed to them. Not a good end game for anti-Assad rebels, since Russia (and Iran) stepped up support for Assad.
JR
Thanks for your response John. Interesting info on things. As far as the pivot is concerned, I'm not the one attempting to pivot; the truth has an easy enough time pivoting by itself, I find?
Truth can be somewhat subjective, even facts have been known to be muddied in some cases.desol said:
I am a couple hundred pages into the Pinker book (blank slate). I like how he presents various theories about stuff often in contradiction. Not even half way through, so I expect to learn more.
JR
desol
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JohnRoberts said:
Off topic.
Indeed. I try not to be subjective or give into subjectivity as rule; I'm very critical of what I allow myself to believe. I have a saying that I like: subjectivity makes the world go round, but objectivity took us to the moon.
Back on topic.
I am tempted to leave sleeping dogs lie and appreciate the relative calm, I'm guessing a tryptophan coma....
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I try to pay attention to international currents that don't alway make the twitter politics inspired national news . (I have a special election runoff for one MS senate seat this coming week so numerous mud slinging political ads still).
Unless you have been living under a rock you've heard about the (Washington Post) "journalist" murdered by the Saudis in Turkey. Of course this is unacceptable, but not quite as rare as we would like to think. Arguably this case is a little different (or not) as Khashoggi had history with the Kingdom and Saudi family. Up until fairly recently he was an adviser and unofficial spokesman for the royal family.
He fell out of favor with the new crown price because of his support for the Muslim Brotherhood and political islam. Banned from writing and even using twitter in the kingdom he escaped to America where free speech is protected. A number of his friends/associates in Saudi Arabia were arrested after he left. He reinvented himself as a critic of the Saudis and contributed columns to the Washington Post. His attraction/support for political Islam helped him forge his friendship with president Erdogan of Turkey, who is now the loudest critic of the Saudis after this event.
This is a little ironic as Turkey has an embarrassing history of being condemned by the European court of human rights (2008) for executing and assassinating Kurdish journalists and writers (probably for the same reason Khashoggi was disappeared). If Erdogan had so much inside information about Saudi plans maybe he could have warned/protected his "friend" Khashoggi? I speculate he is pleased with this outcome and opportunity to look like the good guy and rehabilitate his image while trashing the Saudis.
This is getting heavy press coverage in the west as a vehicle to embarrass the Trump administration that is allied with the Saudi's against Iran (almost everything in the region comes down to sunni vs shia ). While not getting much coverage, the Saudis are paying a price for their ineptly concealed act of quieting dissent (arguably this was intentional to send a message to other dissidents, not unlike Putin's barely concealed assassinations and attempted assassinations of dissidents even located in the west.)
The fist obvious price that Saudis are paying is driving down the price of oil as a reward to remaining allies. The second less obvious price they are paying is withdrawal of some western military support in their proxy war with Iran in neighboring Yemen. There is probably more pressure not in the news.
In hindsight the Khashoggi killing was bad judgement, resulting in too high of a cost. I don't doubt they intended to send a message to quiet dissent, instead they triggered even more high profile international criticism.
As usual interesting times in the neighborhood...
JR
PS: Gunmen attacked the Chinese embassy in Pakistan protesting the "belt and road" infrastructure investment. They appear to be resistant to any modern change, more than just the overt Chinese mercantilism.
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I try to pay attention to international currents that don't alway make the twitter politics inspired national news . (I have a special election runoff for one MS senate seat this coming week so numerous mud slinging political ads still).
Unless you have been living under a rock you've heard about the (Washington Post) "journalist" murdered by the Saudis in Turkey. Of course this is unacceptable, but not quite as rare as we would like to think. Arguably this case is a little different (or not) as Khashoggi had history with the Kingdom and Saudi family. Up until fairly recently he was an adviser and unofficial spokesman for the royal family.
He fell out of favor with the new crown price because of his support for the Muslim Brotherhood and political islam. Banned from writing and even using twitter in the kingdom he escaped to America where free speech is protected. A number of his friends/associates in Saudi Arabia were arrested after he left. He reinvented himself as a critic of the Saudis and contributed columns to the Washington Post. His attraction/support for political Islam helped him forge his friendship with president Erdogan of Turkey, who is now the loudest critic of the Saudis after this event.
This is a little ironic as Turkey has an embarrassing history of being condemned by the European court of human rights (2008) for executing and assassinating Kurdish journalists and writers (probably for the same reason Khashoggi was disappeared). If Erdogan had so much inside information about Saudi plans maybe he could have warned/protected his "friend" Khashoggi? I speculate he is pleased with this outcome and opportunity to look like the good guy and rehabilitate his image while trashing the Saudis.
This is getting heavy press coverage in the west as a vehicle to embarrass the Trump administration that is allied with the Saudi's against Iran (almost everything in the region comes down to sunni vs shia ). While not getting much coverage, the Saudis are paying a price for their ineptly concealed act of quieting dissent (arguably this was intentional to send a message to other dissidents, not unlike Putin's barely concealed assassinations and attempted assassinations of dissidents even located in the west.)
The fist obvious price that Saudis are paying is driving down the price of oil as a reward to remaining allies. The second less obvious price they are paying is withdrawal of some western military support in their proxy war with Iran in neighboring Yemen. There is probably more pressure not in the news.
In hindsight the Khashoggi killing was bad judgement, resulting in too high of a cost. I don't doubt they intended to send a message to quiet dissent, instead they triggered even more high profile international criticism.
As usual interesting times in the neighborhood...
JR
PS: Gunmen attacked the Chinese embassy in Pakistan protesting the "belt and road" infrastructure investment. They appear to be resistant to any modern change, more than just the overt Chinese mercantilism.
I'm at the point where any American supporting the Saudi's, must be trolling. My brain can't handle the alternative...
But please stop referring to Yemen as a proxy war. Apart from Al-Qaeda*, there is no Saudi proxy active in Yemen – they are directly and indiscriminately bombing the Yemeni population, civilian infrastructures, and through their land, sea and air blockade, attempting to starve the entire population to death. At a rate of 50'000 dead children a year, it's nothing short of genocide.
The US president proudly exclaiming how he considers arms manufacturer revenues and jobs as more important than the resolution of this conflict, is disgraceful. Same goes for British politicians who've made similar statements.
Every civilized person should want this to end. Now.
* source: https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da
But please stop referring to Yemen as a proxy war. Apart from Al-Qaeda*, there is no Saudi proxy active in Yemen – they are directly and indiscriminately bombing the Yemeni population, civilian infrastructures, and through their land, sea and air blockade, attempting to starve the entire population to death. At a rate of 50'000 dead children a year, it's nothing short of genocide.
The US president proudly exclaiming how he considers arms manufacturer revenues and jobs as more important than the resolution of this conflict, is disgraceful. Same goes for British politicians who've made similar statements.
Every civilized person should want this to end. Now.
* source: https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da
Sorry I didn't mean to stress your brain. You think I'm trolling?Banzai said:
The proxy war is the same wider shia/sunni conflict across the entire region. The Houthis rebels in Yemen aka Ansar Allah are Zaidi-Shia followers. Iran has supported rockets fired into Saudi Arabia from Yemen (Mar 2018).
I don't pretend that this is simple but we can't ignore the puppet masters behind the curtain pulling the strings (providing the funds)... this is a battle for hegemony across the entire region between Iran and Saudis. THEY ARE BOTH THE BAD GUYS HERE....... At the moment we are aligned with Saudis, President Obama tried playing nice with Iran... I think they both (all?) want to kill us.
I do not feel lucky about withdrawing and leaving them to work it out.
Yes, i think we should declare all warfare to end immediately. :
BTW Nobody is rooting for war***... we all want peace but on our own terms.
Right now the US has to choose between ugly, and uglier... at the moment we favor the Saudis over Iran, but neither are without their flaws.
JR
PS: as I've shared already Turkey is opportunistically taking advantage of the Saudi royal's sloppy assassination of a high profile opposition spokesperson. Perhaps the Saudi's thought they could get away with it like Putin seems too repeatedly, and they were sending a message to others with the ham fisted killing. Turkey likes that it makes them look good by comparison.
**** arguably the military industrial complex (as warned about by Pres Eisenhower)
boji
Well-known member
Might?!? I don't think there's any argument to be had.
Our economy is entirely in the hands of the MIC.
Arming SA keeps them selling their vast oil reserves to the world in US dollars.
And don't get me started on Israel, Gulf War I, yellow cake, CIA's meddling with Contra's, Gulf of Tonkin, Allende, The Shah, and god knows what other false flags we've perpetrated. We might have begun some of those actions in the desire to reduce conflict and by extension, military spending, but that's never what ends up happening.
No you're right. The 15 Saudi's on 9/11, Bin Laden, ISIS, Al-Qaeda and the Taliban were trolling you. Please continue supporting and arming Saudi Arabia, turning a blind eye to them exporting Salafist fundamentalism worldwide, to ensure the world burns for another 50-years.JohnRoberts said:
Oh, and let them get away with 9/11 too. What else are friends for.
The Zaidi's governed North Yemen for 1000 years – they aren't a figment of Tehran's imagination. And sure, we all approve of Saudi Arabia pummelling Yemen for 3-years, but we're horrified by the Yemeni's defending themselves!
It's the same stupidity where the US pretends it's at peace at home, whilst at war 10'000 miles away:
If you start a conflict, don't act like a victim when the other side finally shoots back.
So let's make this simple: don't support either the Saudi's or Iran!
And no, Iran is not at the level of Saudi Arabia. It's not Iranian jets who are bombing weddings, funerals, schools, hospitals, ports, and blockading all aid and medicine from entering Yemen. It's also not Iran spending $5-6 billion a month on bombing Yemen:
Your own state department put the total amount spent by Iran on their "adventurism" between 2012 and 2018 as only $16 billion* . The Saudi's spend that exact amount, every three months, just in Yemen! The US spends 5 times more than that, every year, just in Afghanistan, as part of their $6 TRILLION total spend since 9/11.
But sure, it's Iran who's the problem and threatening world peace...
Yemen ffs. Stop pretending you have to be there, you have to sell bombs, you have to refuel Saudi jets, or otherwise the fabric of the universe will dissolve.Yes, i think we should declare all warfare to end immediately. :
* From Pompeo's twitter (https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1049635981006114819)
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boji said:
They are clearly motivated to perpetuate conflicts. Not all military sales are for immediate use in active conflict zones, a fraction is for defensive capability. As we are seeing play out in the ME if we withdraw, Russia and China are more than happy to rush in. Do not expect them to promote freedom and personal liberty. China seems motivated to gain new/larger markets for their goods (belt and road), Russia seems interested in restoring some past greatness (that wasn't that great).
Our legislators are often motivated to support weapons manufacturing in their districts for the local jobs and local economic benefit. In fact some weapons programs are kept alive by these legislators longer than they should, for the personal benefit to their voters. I suspect there is significant lobbying and term limits might reduce the perpetual campaign money pursuit.
Of course, and the west has benefited from that cheap oil. In recent years the expansion of US oil production has flipped us from an oil importer to net oil exporter (low single digit millions of barrels a day). This is more than many OPEC nations and reducing the cartel's leverage over world economies. (As I've already shared it looks like SA is pumping extra oil to drive down world prices right now to earn some forgiveness from the west for recent bad publicity).
Not going down that rabbit hole this early in the day...
The fighter aircraft history book I am reading has recapped the history of world wars*** in the context of aircraft. It seems to me that we have done far more good than bad, but we wrote that history so it may reflect our bias. Over the last century multiple countries put their military fighter aircraft into other nation's wars to develop cutting edge technology and pilot capability.
JR
*** just finished reading about Korean War (still not ended officially) and moving into Viet Nam conflict...
Geo politics makes strange partnerships.Banzai said:
In case you haven't noticed the Saudi government is recently trying to reduce religious fundamentalist influence within the kingdom (and exported). This is not simple or easy and they have much work to do.
The recent drama surrounding Khashoggi has religious fundamentalist under currents (he promoted the Brotherhood, and Erdogan in Turkey is moving in that direction.)
Huh?
To repeat, I do not trust Russia or China to be better world citizens.
didn't say it was... Our main problem with Iran is them supporting terrorism across the ME region and oppressing their own citizens. The missiles fired into SA from Yemen were Iranian made.
As I already shared military support for SA has been reduced in response to the bad publicity over Khashoggi (a win for the shia team)
and that makes it OK?
To repeat both Iran and SA are responsible... Arguably we are not without some blame. We can only influence SA with carrots, and Iran with sticks (economic sanctions). Sadly the sanctions hurt the Iranian public disproportionately as Iran still manages to export $B worth of mischief across the region, allowing their own economy and citizens to suffer.
JR
Sure they are. Let's give them another 40-years of proselytizing Salafism in their 1000's of mosques worldwide, and see if there's an improvement.JohnRoberts said:
1) The US narrative expects people to be outraged by missiles fired into Saudi Arabia from Yemen. We should all be horrified that a peaceful country like Saudi Arabia is attacked by the Houthi's... Sorry, no. The Saudi's are at war – the missiles are a retaliation for the non-stop bombing, and are legitimate self-defence.
2) The Zaidi's have ruled over Nothern Yemen for a 1000 years. They are not an Iranian proxy. It's an insult to them, and a gross exaggeration of Iranian involvement and influence in Yemen.
Better they use your bombs than Russia's? That's a disgraceful position to hold. What happened to western morals, values, and standing for human rights?
How do you suggest they shipped these missiles through the land, sea and air blockade? The UN themselves confirmed they have no proof of Iran violating the arms embargo. At best, the missiles contain Iranian upgrades in the form of electronics. This is known – there are Iranian advisors in Yemen, teaching the Houthi's how to upgrade their vintage scuds.
Makes what OK? Iran is a top-25 world economy, and you expect them to have no allies, no interests, no security concerns, and no involvement in their own region?
Your own state department admitted the 'aid' to Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Iraq and Yemen amounts to less than $3B/year. That's exactly the amount the US sends to Israel, every year. So is that OK? You can arm Israel because you're so wonderful and great, but all the neighbouring countries receiving aid from Iran, are terrorists?
Again, this argument was killed by your own state department being run by the tactically challenged: if Iran's total spend on 'mischief' is $16B over 6 years, that amounts to under $3B/year. So can you explain how Iran is hurting its economy and making its citizens suffer, by spending $3B/year? Supposedly they had spent all the windfall from the nuclear deal on terrorists, i.e. hundreds of billions of dollars, but now we hear it's only $6B since 2016?? That's what Saudi Arabia spends in 1 MONTH bombing Yemen!
When Iran's GDP is $400B/year, the entire narrative of Iran wanting to take over the ME is a lie. Even you can agree they would have spent more than $3B/year if that was their aim. The numbers just don't add up.
