Twitter

[hodad]

Buying Twitter for $44B was an obvious mistake. ..... He was contractually obligated so followed through.

Yes, it was an obvious mistake. But no, he was not obligated to buy Twitter. There was a way out from the start--only that way out would cost him a billion dollars. That ought to seem like a bargain now, and many folks (even me) thought at the time that paying the billion would be his smartest move.

It's pretty obvious by the way Musk has devalued Twitter (and Tesla as well in his efforts to buoy Twitter) that a billion one way or another doesn't mean much to him. But this guy you hesitate to criticize, John, made an obvious mistake in offering to buy Twitter, and made a second obvious mistake by not taking his lumps and moving on. And why, exactly, do you hesitate to criticize him?

(Obviously, I used the word "obvious" too many times in this post. Thankfully, that obvious mistake will not cost me billions.)

 

[JohnRoberts]

Yes, it was an obvious mistake. But no, he was not obligated to buy Twitter. There was a way out from the start--only that way out would cost him a billion dollars. That ought to seem like a bargain now, and many folks (even me) thought at the time that paying the billion would be his smartest move.

The calculus on that is not as obvious to me as you, obviously. Paying $1B to walk away leaves him with -$1B and no asset.... Paying the $44B gives him Twitter which has some potential future value.

It's pretty obvious by the way Musk has devalued Twitter (and Tesla as well in his efforts to buoy Twitter) that a billion one way or another doesn't mean much to him.

He has FU money but I suspect $1B still matters to him... don't confuse losing billions of market capitalization with losing real money.

But this guy you hesitate to criticize, John, made an obvious mistake in offering to buy Twitter, and made a second obvious mistake by not taking his lumps and moving on. And why, exactly, do you hesitate to criticize him?

Because the fat lady did not sing yet. I am surely repeating myself but my obvious respect for him, is related to his obvious engineering accomplishments, not his short term trading in the market. I've watched him trade around with crypto too, reportedly he dumped something 75% of Tesla's crypto last quarter to raise cash (I wonder why, the excuse given was China which is struggling with zero covid policy).

(Obviously, I used the word "obvious" too many times in this post. Thankfully, that obvious mistake will not cost me billions.)

Got to have it to lose it... obviously I don't have that much either but speculating about deals with this many zeros is little more than financial masturbation, obviously. We can't ante up at that table, obviously.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Yes, it was an obvious mistake. But no, he was not obligated to buy Twitter. There was a way out from the start--only that way out would cost him a billion dollars. That ought to seem like a bargain now, and many folks (even me) thought at the time that paying the billion would be his smartest move.

It's pretty obvious by the way Musk has devalued Twitter (and Tesla as well in his efforts to buoy Twitter) that a billion one way or another doesn't mean much to him. But this guy you hesitate to criticize, John, made an obvious mistake in offering to buy Twitter, and made a second obvious mistake by not taking his lumps and moving on. And why, exactly, do you hesitate to criticize him?

(Obviously, I used the word "obvious" too many times in this post. Thankfully, that obvious mistake will not cost me billions.)

Obviously Elon should just give up now. I mean, he's had three whole weeks to fix Twitter and he's obviously failed. He should sell it to DHS for a billion and just go hide in a cave somewhere. What a loser! Obviously!

 

[hodad]

Paying $1B to walk away leaves him with -$1B and no asset....

Knowing when to get out of a bad deal can be as vital as knowing when to get into a good one. I don't think Musk showed us a) that he can tell a bad deal from a good one; or b) that he's got the good sense to walk away when he knows he's screwed. If Musk manages to come out okay on this deal, I predict it will primarily be because someone steps in to save him.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Knowing when to get out of a bad deal can be as vital as knowing when to get into a good one. I don't think Musk showed us a) that he can tell a bad deal from a good one; or b) that he's got the good sense to walk away when he knows he's screwed. If Musk manages to come out okay on this deal, I predict it will primarily be because someone steps in to save him.

Those who can do, those who can't .......

Elon Musk is clearly a "doer" on a grand scale. Perhaps you should tweet him your critiques.

JR

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Those who can do, those who can't .......

Backseat drive. Monday morning quarterback. Become movie critics. "Teach."

Elon Musk is clearly a "doer" on a grand scale. Perhaps you should tweet him your critiques.

JR

Or start your own Twitter replacement. You've got it all sussed. Make it happen.

 

[pucho812]

I’m still waiting for Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to combine into the ultimate social media platform, you twit face

 

[JohnRoberts]

I’m still waiting for Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to combine into the ultimate social media platform, you twit face

Zukerberg is apparently losing forward momentum for his metaverse (virtual universe), where snowflakes can cancel anybody and everybody at will. As often happens reality has a say...

There's an old yiddish saying, "man plans and god laughs"....

JR

 

[hodad]

Elon Musk is clearly a "doer" on a grand scale.

Sometimes it's better to be a "don'ter." I think Musk is showing us this quite clearly.

In poker, when you realize your opponent has the nuts (and you know he knows), you fold--no matter how much is in the pot. Sometimes not "doing" is the smart move.

But I suppose some folks are simply blinded by amassed wealth and obnoxious bluster. Nothing new there.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

Sometimes it's better to be a "don'ter." I think Musk is showing us this quite clearly.

How, exactly? Was Twitter better before when there were thousands of manipulative bot accounts and rampant bias/censorship?

In poker, when you realize your opponent has the nuts (and you know he knows), you fold--no matter how much is in the pot. Sometimes not "doing" is the smart move.

I fail to see how a poker analogy applies to this situation. Sometimes taking a calculated risk is preferable to passively enabling the status quo to continue.

But I suppose some folks are simply blinded by amassed wealth and obnoxious bluster. Nothing new there.

And I suppose losing a tool of propaganda has really hurt the neo-left. All they can do is launch ad hominems against Musk or anyone who doesn't agree that Twitter was better before. Nothing new there.

 

[hodad]

How, exactly? Was Twitter better before when there were thousands of manipulative bot accounts and rampant bias/censorship?

YES!!!!!!! MUSK HAS FIXED EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I SEE IT CLEARLY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU FOR YOUR BRILLIANT INSIGHTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[hodad]

I fail to see how a poker analogy applies to this situation. Sometimes taking a calculated risk is preferable to passively enabling the status quo to continue.

I fail to see how not "passively enabling the status quo" makes for a good business decision. How does that even enter into a good business decision? Is Musk a businessman or is he Don Quixote? Is it so important to "save" Twitter (or to save the world from Twitter, if that's your perspective) that he must overpay for a business he has no experience with, aside from being a frequent user? If it is so important, then why did he try so hard to back out of the deal?

 

[ruairioflaherty]

I'm going to suggest that as long as your (and my) primary information sources are from old media interests that we know very little about what is actually happening.

The level of spin around this story is really something to behold. Old power centers are losing their grip on what I believe was a carefully built empire of information flow control and complex incentive structures. The mania being whipped up and the indulgent self pitying (even from public intellectuals I have previously admired) is astonishing.

So I guess I'm on Team Elon.

 

[AnalogPackrat]

YES!!!!!!! MUSK HAS FIXED EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I SEE IT CLEARLY NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU FOR YOUR BRILLIANT INSIGHTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You didn't answer the simple question. Thanks for proving my point. Musk has only had three weeks to begin transforming Twitter into whatever his goal may be. What do you expect? Have you never worked on a large project with complex logistics that required more than three weeks to complete?

 

[AnalogPackrat]

I fail to see how not "passively enabling the status quo" makes for a good business decision. How does that even enter into a good business decision? Is Musk a businessman or is he Don Quixote?

From his public comments it seems pretty clear that he didn't buy it for purely business reasons. Why is that hard to comprehend? Why is that bad? You aren't whining about Billionaire Bezos owning The Washington Post. Nor did you complain about Billionaire Zuckerberg's terrible business decision to invest billions into his whacky Metaverse concept which has a balance of -9B to date.

Is it so important to "save" Twitter (or to save the world from Twitter, if that's your perspective) that he must overpay for a business he has no experience with, aside from being a frequent user?

Apparently he thought so. Why does it concern you?

If it is so important, then why did he try so hard to back out of the deal?

It appears to me that once he was allowed to do more detailed due diligence investigation into the finances of Twitter he saw it was worth less. I think he wanted to renegotiate a lower purchase price, but got entangled in legalities. He probably made some mistakes when he agreed to the original terms. As JR pointed out, if you aren't making mistakes you aren't really trying.

The amount of sheer ignorance about basic business exhibited in this thread is stunning.

 

[rob_gould]

The amount of sheer ignorance about basic business exhibited in this thread is stunning

As is the inability of some posters to make the distinction between facts and opinions

 

[AnalogPackrat]

As is the inability of some posters to make the distinction between facts and opinions

Yes. Facts regarding layoffs, business operations, Silicon Valley "normal," and a host of other things beyond their own experience. Or perhaps you could be more specific with your assertion.

 

[hodad]

Old power centers are losing their grip on what I believe was a carefully built empire of information flow

Yes. That's been happening for quite some time now, in a variety of different places and ways. In fact, Twitter itself (and those who use it) has contributed extensively to this grip-loosening. There's a track record there we can examine--we've got access to info otherwise unavailable in nations where free speech and the press are harshly limited, but we also have the flourishing of attacks on people for their religion, skin color and sexuality (along with a wide variety of frauds and charlatans). Why would anyone assume that a multi-billionaire with strong financial ties to oppressive govts. would be a true champion of free speech? The Saudis are in for about 2 billion on this Twitter fiasco--they may want to break down the current information flow system, but what do you expect them to want in its place?


EDIT: This forum itself has an interesting example. For a time, this list was a pretty solid venue for discussion of all things Covid. There were people who researched, at least one person with a solid medical background, and a wide variety of outlooks and experiences. There were even a couple of fringe dissenters. It all moved along relatively well, and I think people from a wide variety of viewpoints gained valuable insights. Now, unfortunately, the conversation is completely dominated by fringe conspiracy theories. While they don't have any actual power over the forum, their incessant lunacy has had a chilling effect on the free flow of discourse regarding Covid here. I know that John does rein them in ever so slightly, but even with that, they have limited open discussion as much as any old-guard power structure might. Assuming discourse would be more open in a "free speech absolutist" setting is a pipe dream.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Elon is operating Twitter with a remarkable amount of transparency giving all the kibitzers lots of ammunition to second guess him.

Control over information flow is (political) power. I expect congress will be investigating behavior by social media suppressing and amplifying news for political benefit.

Interesting times.

JR

 

[cyrano]

Apparently, he stopped paying his suppliers. That doesn't seem like a good idea.

Also, almost the entire HR department quit. Now he's saying he's recruiting. Could be hard without a HR department.

One of his co-financiers is Sam Bankman-Fried, of FTX fame, albeit for a meager 100 million.