US Shut-Down

[Gold]

We need a guest worker program so people can come work and then leave and come back. It would be better for everyone except those who have an interest in keeping the labor cheap and off balance. Which is a lot of people of all political stripes.

 

[dmp]

The NY airport being shutdown for 1 hr was enough to break Trump. And McConnell had 6 defections yesterday. So I don't think the gov will shutdown again. 

It will be interesting how Trump reacts - he's already getting skewered by the right wing zealots (Coulter, Drudge).

 

[JohnRoberts]

We need a guest worker program so people can come work and then leave and come back. It would be better for everyone except those who have an interest in keeping the labor cheap and off balance. Which is a lot of people of all political stripes.

Indeed we need comprehensive immigration reform... this will not happen in 3 weeks, but we could get a partial DACA deal.

President Trump is not a typical politician so we may have an actual opportunity to make real immigration reform this time, but the resistance seems focussed on not allowing him anything that even resembles a win before 2020, so hard to be optimistic.

The swamp won this round... and should not be underestimated. I expect Nancy and Chuck to be taking a well deserved victory lap.

JR

PS: I suspect one factor that influenced President Trump was the imminent State of the Union... Besides TSA and Flight controllers getting blue flu, coast guard drug interdiction has been compromised by limited assets to perform their mission, so there are multiple valid public safety concerns.

 

[dmp]

Speaking of the swamp in Washington, Roger Stone was arrested this morning.  Donny Jr. may be next.

Stone was apparently the connection to Wikileaks and the Russian hacking that led an effective smear campaign against the Democrats in 2016. Donny jr. was the contact with Stone, presumably. By releasing nasty soundbites on a weekly basis, the leaks kept the conversation on Democratic flaws. And hacking your political rivals is a crime. And knowing about the crime and the future leaks of this info (as Stone did) was conspiracy (a crime).  Stone communicated the future leaks to the campaign and Trump made his infamous statement about hoping Russia finds Clinton's emails. 

The scary unknown part is what if anything was hacked from Republicans? And if high level Republicans were hacked, why has that info been kept private? Blackmail would explain some Republican actions IMO.

 

[Jarno]

...Nancy and Chuck to be taking a well deserved victory lap.

Even though I think those folks are more capable of running the US at this moment in time, I still think it is despicable. It does show that it is not just the Republicans who are quite willing to put the well being of countless government employees at stake by using government funding as leverage, but also the Democrats.
It is far from proper governance, and I hope the American people will act upon this. Let's hope the bunch of amoral 70+ year olds are kicked to the curb to be replaced by people who really care.

 

[sodderboy]

By making immigration the most visible issue attention is deflected from a long list of actual and far more relevant problems.

And what Trump wants is not to solve the actual problems with immigration, but to waste taxpayer money on an unrealistic and mostly symbolic project.

Democrats have no choice to block this. If they didn't, he would next try to get away with more and other useless and damaging policies.

For the people still supporting Trump on the other hand, it's not about actual issues but tribal identity.

Nope.  US tribal identity is dead and has been consumed by identity politics mini-tribal identity.  I was talking to teachers in a college today and they are petrified to say anything in class because each student has their own political identity chip on their shoulder.  You can't say "male XLR" or "gender changer" when talking cables because some jerk student will report you for offending them.  They stopped teaching tape machine synchronization because they did not have a good alternative word match for master-slave machines.  Pathetic!

Back to illegals, when you add the medical and legal system costs of illegal immigration in the US it is significant in the hundreds of billions.  Add to that the exploitation of other social services by illegal immigrants, Russians come to my mind because I see it first hand, you are talking at least another hundred billion.  Add to that the burden on schools and local services the amount of "taxpayer's money" sucked away by illegals is massive.
We admit more people legally than any other country and need to admit more.  But we have to stop the bogarts and that has nothing to do with tribalism.  Having a solid work visa program and "huge beautiful doors" on the barrier is key to success post "wall".

And everyone likes to harp on "Trumps concrete wall", which will be nothing of the kind.  The people working the border know what they need and will be the main consultants in the planning, not concrete companies.  Die Mauer worked quite well, keeping folks IN their communist nirvana.

As important as a wall we have to tighten the visa system.  ICE really has no idea of who has jumped their visas.  none.  Again I see this first hand where people bring Russian women on tourist visas and keep them as nannys and the like.  The people have to sign an affidavit pledging responsibility for lodging and medical costs of the invitee.  These affidavits get tossed at the embassy most likely.  If these people start getting fined for their visa jumpers' medical bills there will be fewer visa apps going through the system and fewer jumpers.  Same with tour agencies.  They will start to take deposits from people getting tourist visas to the states because many of those "folks" jump their visas.

The more I discuss this sitch with people I see that the US americans are collectively failing and will continue to do so because they are too comfortable.  We are letting this gift slip through our lazy hands.
People have not really lived through hardships in the past three generations and are totally spoiled feeling entitled for one injustice/inconvenience or another.  Add to that a growing immigrant class that hates the US, sees it as a perpetual bird feeder, and doesn't understand or care what made this the place where they wanted to make their new life.  We're like a bunch of sissy Romans kvetching about limp lettuce at the salad bar oblivious to our impending demise from within.  Really depressing. . .
Well I'm going to raise my spirits and solder some d-subs.  Yay!
Mike

 

[JohnRoberts]

Nope.  US tribal identity is dead and has been consumed by identity politics mini-tribal identity.  I was talking to teachers in a college today and they are petrified to say anything in class because each student has their own political identity chip on their shoulder.  You can't say "male XLR" or "gender changer" when talking cables because some jerk student will report you for offending them.  They stopped teaching tape machine synchronization because they did not have a good alternative word match for master-slave machines.  Pathetic!

That is a little sad.

Back to illegals, when you add the medical and legal system costs of illegal immigration in the US it is significant in the hundreds of billions.  Add to that the exploitation of other social services by illegal immigrants, Russians come to my mind because I see it first hand, you are talking at least another hundred billion.  Add to that the burden on schools and local services the amount of "taxpayer's money" sucked away by illegals is massive.
We admit more people legally than any other country and need to admit more.  But we have to stop the bogarts and that has nothing to do with tribalism.  Having a solid work visa program and "huge beautiful doors" on the barrier is key to success post "wall".

and we need to follow through with enforcement against employers who hire and pay illegals.  If there were no jobs, and no free entitlements, they wouldn't come in such huge numbers.

And everyone likes to harp on "Trumps concrete wall", which will be nothing of the kind.  The people working the border know what they need and will be the main consultants in the planning, not concrete companies.  Die Mauer worked quite well, keeping folks IN their communist nirvana.

Berlin wall was concrete and had armed guards. We do not need a massive solid wall, we just need to convince people thousands of mile away to not make the trip, just to be turned away. They should be allowed to apply for amnesty (and vast majority be denied) at an embassy back home. 

As important as a wall we have to tighten the visa system.  ICE really has no idea of who has jumped their visas.  none.  Again I see this first hand where people bring Russian women on tourist visas and keep them as nannys and the like.  The people have to sign an affidavit pledging responsibility for lodging and medical costs of the invitee.  These affidavits get tossed at the embassy most likely.  If these people start getting fined for their visa jumpers' medical bills there will be fewer visa apps going through the system and fewer jumpers.  Same with tour agencies.  They will start to take deposits from people getting tourist visas to the states because many of those "folks" jump their visas.

Yes better accountability of visa stays would help, it would mean more govt bureaucracy but we have too many loopholes for people to exploit.

The more I discuss this sitch with people I see that the US americans are collectively failing and will continue to do so because they are too comfortable.  We are letting this gift slip through our lazy hands.

+1

People have not really lived through hardships in the past three generations and are totally spoiled feeling entitled for one injustice/inconvenience or another.  Add to that a growing immigrant class that hates the US, sees it as a perpetual bird feeder, and doesn't understand or care what made this the place where they wanted to make their new life.

yup hate america but almost die to get here....

  We're like a bunch of sissy Romans kvetching about limp lettuce at the salad bar oblivious to our impending demise from within.  Really depressing. . .
Well I'm going to raise my spirits and solder some d-subs.  Yay!
Mike

I remain optimistic, but it is a challenge some days. This remarkable experiment in governance has not only survived but prospered for a few centuries so far, but nothing in life is guaranteed. We need to understand what makes this place special, and not ruin it. There are so many examples around the world of what not to do.

JR

 

[living sounds]

A few years ago you guys were led to believe the biggest problem was the deficit - when Obama was president. Now under Trump it was increased massively - for the benefit of said rich elite, profiting via stock buybacks. And nobody on the right cares.

You are being manipulated.

 

[JohnRoberts]

A few years ago you guys were led to believe the biggest problem was the deficit - when Obama was president. Now under Trump it was increased massively - for the benefit of said rich elite, profiting via stock buybacks. And nobody on the right cares.

You are being manipulated.

Once again remarkable what you think you know...  :

The federal sovereign debt remains problematic ($22T  ), and strategy to grow GDP faster to reduce deficit and debt seems marginal at best to reduce that huge debt. Increasing interest rates will massively increase the sovereign debt service cost and that shoe hasn't dropped yet. 

Both parties are generous spenders, and the growing entitlements are not even part of the discretionary budget process, so keep growing like topsy.

Still not the biggest problem, but surely a big one.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Even though I think those folks are more capable of running the US at this moment in time, I still think it is despicable. It does show that it is not just the Republicans who are quite willing to put the well being of countless government employees at stake by using government funding as leverage, but also the Democrats.
It is far from proper governance, and I hope the American people will act upon this. Let's hope the bunch of amoral 70+ year olds are kicked to the curb to be replaced by people who really care.

Agreed... term limits would help break the cycle of perpetual campaign fund raising. Public service is supposed to be serving the people not a cushy career that leads to accumulating wealth beyond nominal paychecks.

On the right the tea party has been active about reducing spending and returning to constitutional fundamentals. Every two year cycle they gain a few more seats but this is still a minority of the republican party. They seem to be losing momentum in the current reality TV/social media driven modern culture.

JR

 

[L´Andratté]

There´s a joke about germany, it also works with americans.

There´s a billionaire, a standard american citizen and a mexican immigrant.
The task is to share twenty cookies among them. How are they going about it?
Well, the billionaire takes nineteen and tells the american citizen:"Watch out, the mexican is taking your cookie away!"

 

[JohnRoberts]

There´s a joke about germany, it also works with americans.

There´s a billionaire, a standard american citizen and a mexican immigrant.
The task is to share twenty cookies among them. How are they going about it?
Well, the billionaire takes nineteen and tells the american citizen:"Watch out, the mexican is taking your cookie away!"

There is another joke, where you take all the cookies away from the rich person and give them to the poor people. By a modest time  later the rich person has earned most of his cookies back from the poor. 

Arguably neither joke is very ha-ha funny but much truth in political satire.

JR

 

[Jarno]

"Die Mauer worked quite well,"

These words do not go together, I think anyone who visited Berlin, the museum and the sections of the wall that still are there gets shivers down their spine, by the level of dehumanisation and pure evil, it is not just the wall, it's the electrified fences, the automatic machineguns, watch towers etc etc.

Even hundreds of miles of open ocean does not stop people from trying to get into europe. Any wall that aims to stop people from entering is either a laughable failure, or as evil as the Berlin wall was.

 

[scott2000]

This is one of the most ironic, twisted things I think I've come across in a while.....

Wow.....

 

[midwayfair]

This is one of the most ironic, twisted things I think I've come across in a while.....

Why is it ironic or twisted?

 

[scott2000]

Why is it ironic or twisted?

Just the various stories behind the image and saying. I first heard it from some antifa protestors and wanted to research it more..

The stories of Chavez, immigration,  Obama's use of it , the supreme court judge....etc......

 

[JohnRoberts]

"Die Mauer worked quite well,"

These words do not go together, I think anyone who visited Berlin, the museum and the sections of the wall that still are there gets shivers down their spine, by the level of dehumanisation and pure evil, it is not just the wall, it's the electrified fences, the automatic machineguns, watch towers etc etc.

It is most instructive that the wall was built and policed to keep citizens in... Think about that.  :

I have been to Berlin and even rode through the Brandenburg gate (with my sales rep) when it was briefly open to vehicle traffic last century. He also showed me East Berlin and that was a depressing testament to a failed economic system, especially compared to West Berlin. 

Even hundreds of miles of open ocean does not stop people from trying to get into europe. Any wall that aims to stop people from entering is either a laughable failure, or as evil as the Berlin wall was.

Personal property and rule of law are two engines that have driven most of the worlds progress. Sadly too many people are desperate to escape poverty and lawlessness.

Generous entitlements and unlimited immigration are a recipe for failure, as even the wealthiest countries do not have enough wealth to give everybody everything they want for free.  Most can't even provide their legal citizens everything they would like.

There are no easy answers, but the world's poor are getting less poor. Still a long way to go.

I lock my house doors, I don't consider that evil?

JR

 

[Matador]

Back to illegals, when you add the medical and legal system costs of illegal immigration in the US it is significant in the hundreds of billions.  Add to that the exploitation of other social services by illegal immigrants, Russians come to my mind because I see it first hand, you are talking at least another hundred billion.  Add to that the burden on schools and local services the amount of "taxpayer's money" sucked away by illegals is massive.

Donald Trump's false claim about the cost of illegal immigration

The right-leaning Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimated in a September 2017 report that the federal, state and local costs of more than 12.5 million people in the United States illegally was around $135 billion a year. After factoring in this population’s tax contributions, the group said the total economic impact of illegal immigration was around $116 billion a year (up from $113 billion in 2013).

The federation seeks to reduce legal and illegal immigration to the United States, and its cost estimates tend to be higher than other related studies. Its conclusions have generally been criticized for relying on inexact estimates and broad assumptions.

Alex Nowrasteh, an immigration policy analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute, said FAIR’s 2017 report was "fatally flawed." It undercounted immigrants’ tax revenues, inflated the number of immigrants in the country illegally, counted millions of U.S. citizens as illegally in the United States, and used a method of estimating fiscal costs "that is rejected by all economists who work on this subject," he said.

...

Trump’s claim is inaccurate. We rate it False.

Remember, we're supposed to be taking Trump's tweets 'seriously, not literally'.

 

[scott2000]

Donald Trump's false claim about the cost of illegal immigration
Remember, we're supposed to be taking Trump's tweets 'seriously, not literally

What are the real numbers? is it half??? a quarter?? is it "massive"?

That number that was quoted from 2013, was that disputed as well??

 

[midwayfair]

What are the real numbers? is it half??? a quarter?? is it "massive"?

That number that was quoted from 2013, was that disputed as well??

You could use this study

https://cis.org/Report/Cost-Border-Wall-vs-Cost-Illegal-Immigration

which says that worst case is $12.5B per 100,000 immigrants with less than a high school education, including the costs of their children, and use an estimate of the number who cross illegally each year and aren't apprehended and deported.

This article says that in 2017, the border patrol apprehended about 300,000 and claimed an 81% success rate:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-trump-mexico-wall/how-many-people-currently-cross/

So it would appear that the number is under $12B/year, using a worst-case scenario, if the border patrol is not overestimating their apprehension rate, the number of crossings stayed constant from 2015 and did not continue to trend downward as it had been doing for the prior 15 years, and every single person who was not apprehended and crossed that way had less than a high school education.

The Bloomberg article also has estimates for the cost of the border wall.