covid politics

[JohnRoberts]

Where do flu vaccines fall in this catagory?

In the CDC study posted earlier, they calculated 80% ve during that period from June 20- July 17th...if reading into it right...

I'm not a vaccine expert but influenza is a somewhat different problem. There are many different flu virus variants not a mere handful like Covid. Every year big Pharma tracks the different strains infecting people around the world (its always flu season somewhere), and tries to assemble a vaccine mix covering the top hitters expected to be dominant when flu season rolls around. As I shared recently, maybe in another thread, the drug makers are predicting lower than typical effectiveness flu vaccine this time for several reasons including this last flu season was so not typical.

Relax it will all be in one shot pretty soon.

JR

 

[crazydoc]

I just looked at a chart showing trends wrt ICU and general inpatient capacity. hospitalization trends link

Please interpret the charts yourself. I expect different people may draw different (subjective) conclusions. I see the rising trend from delta variant (I think) and hope I see a flattening or peak in that rise, but it may be too early to make any predictions as respiratory diseases generally increase during colder months.

It looks to me like ICU capacity in the US, and in most states, increased with the pandemic surge last year. and has stayed pretty stable since. However, the absolute numbers of ICU patients, covid versus other, rise and fall in opposition. That is, as there are more covid beds occupied, the are fewer non-covid beds occupied, and in many cases fewer unoccupied ICU beds available (in the case of Alabama, looks like they were short 70 beds last week - apparently had to ship patients to another state.)

So I wonder, as covid patients fill the beds, what happens to the potential ICU patients whose beds they are displacing? Just because more covid patients need ICU care, that doesn't mean that there would be fewer non-covid patients needing intensive care. I can't explain it, but I'd guess that as the ICU fills up, the criteria for ICU admission get tightened up.

 

[fallout]

My god. The density is thick.

 

[hodad]

. I see the rising trend from delta variant (I think) and hope I see a flattening or peak in that rise, but it may be too early to make any predictions as respiratory diseases generally increase during colder months.

JR

2 things: unlike influenza, COVID does not appear to be significantly worse in winter months. Yes, we had a winter peak in December/January, but we had a spike last summer and we're dealing with another right now. So I'm not necessarily expecting it to follow more typical trends, since it hasn't so far.

And I agree that we're likely approaching a crest (at least in the Southeast and Florida.) Labor Day and the start of football season will likely stretch it out for a few weeks, but I think the decline is coming soon. And as more people acquire immunity (by whatever means), perhaps we won't see these dramatic peaks--especially in hospitalization.

 

[scott2000]

2009 H1N1 started out kinda similar.

 

[Script]

COVID does not appear to be significantly worse in winter months. Yes, we had a winter peak in December/January, but we had a spike last summer and we're dealing with another right now

Seasonal effect maybe 10-20%, I read. In winter, cold or rainy or snowy weather, people tend to prefer indoor spaces, public is the problem. Another factor is that this summer's delta is more contagious than last winter's variant.

The Japanese year is fully structured in terms of holidays, meaning there are intervals when a max of 126M people are all moving around at the same time, alternating with longer periods when people work and don't much move around and don't go far (Japan is teleworking).

Each and every single of the five waves they had here so far all coincided with periods of such extended holidays. It's not fully confirmed yet but it pretty much looks like there's a relation (they'll know for sure by next spring). So 'red alert' has been locked in already for autumn and winter (especially New Year in Japan, which is a date of high cultural significance here).

 

[Script]

Trying to search for "who" isn't vaccinated I find demographic trends strongly minority and lower education levels.

+1

That is in the US -- a huge problem there, but also not exclusive to the US.

 

[hodad]

Trying to search for "who" isn't vaccinated I find demographic trends strongly minority and lower education levels. I

Here's an interesting look at it. The guy who compiled this info is certainly a liberal, but he's also good at what he does. There's other charts--some fairly detailed ones if you're willing to search his site. It's not a definitive answer to the "who" question, but it's pretty clear that Republicans who are so eager to point out unvaccinated Blacks & Latinos are ignoring a whole other side to the picture.

Let's look at the Red/Blue COVID divide in a different way...

 

[Script]

It looks to me like ICU capacity in the US, and in most states, increased with the pandemic surge last year. and has stayed pretty stable since.

Yes, same in Japan. Overall more people coming out of hospitals than entering at the moment.

However, not so with ICUs, which continue to be very busy-- this time around 80% of patients in Japan are unvaccinated 'younger' people in their 50s, 40s, 30s, a few even in their 20s. Vaccination rate among 65+ here stands at 85% or so, and many of them are 'out and about' window shopping etc). It's not them who block hospitals over here.

Yet, an alarming trend for hospitals here, cos while younger people can fight an infection off for longer, which is good,, in turn it also seems to take them longer to fight it off, which is bad -- cos they 'block' beds longer.

With the next wave it looks set to get ugly very quickly.

---
Different aspect, but sure it's being considered too -- the overall cost. What's cheaper ?

(a) two vaccine shots per person ?
(b) many bootles of oxygen, monoclonal infusions, dexa, remsi etc etc etc plus up to four weeks of full-service in ICU per severe case ?

We will all end up paying for it one way or the other. What's the bill ?

 

[iturnknobs]

My god. The density is thick.

Yep. Crystal balls available for sale.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/alabama-icu-hospitalizations-obituary/2021/09/12/id/1036044/

 

[crazydoc]

It looks to me like ICU capacity in the US, and in most states, increased with the pandemic surge last year. and has stayed pretty stable since. However, the absolute numbers of ICU patients, covid versus other, rise and fall in opposition. That is, as there are more covid beds occupied, the are fewer non-covid beds occupied, and in many cases fewer unoccupied ICU beds available (in the case of Alabama, looks like they were short 70 beds last week - apparently had to ship patients to another state.)

So I wonder, as covid patients fill the beds, what happens to the potential ICU patients whose beds they are displacing? Just because more covid patients need ICU care, that doesn't mean that there would be fewer non-covid patients needing intensive care. I can't explain it, but I'd guess that as the ICU fills up, the criteria for ICU admission get tightened up.

Duh! And just let them die.

From iturnknobs' link above: "The family of an Alabama man who died after struggling to find an available hospital bed due to full cardiac ICUs within 200 miles is urging skeptical Americans to get vaccinated for COVID-19. Ray Martin DeMonia, 73, died from complications after a heart attack just three days before his 74th birthday, his family said, after 43 full hospitals forced him to seek care far from home."

 

[scott2000]

sad...

I had a rough time dealing with the hospital here when I was handling my father's heart surgery right when our delta surge changed all the rules again.... This covid has really made things crazy...

Wonder how long it took him to get immediate help. Seems unclear saying he had the event on Aug 23rd but passed Sept 1st...

RIP

 

[fallout]

he had the event on Aug 23rd but passed Sept 1st...

RIP

Sorry to hear about this.

 

[iturnknobs]

sad...

Stupid is the word I choose.

This covid has really made things crazy...

Nope. This was completely avoidable. Anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers, primarily on the right and in red states have brought this upon us all...as they try to blame the brown people. Hodad's info once again. Take a hard look.
https://groupdiy.com/attachments/sc...ica-2021-in-a-single-image-updated-png.84583/

 

[scott2000]

Nope. This was completely avoidable.

My Dad's situation was different. Appeared to me that there are some power tripping clowns in administrative positions. That's all I'll say about that.

 

[iturnknobs]

My Dad's situation was different. Appeared to me that there are some power tripping clowns in administrative positions. That's all I'll say about that.

I won't ask you to expand, but you live in a state that has a governor who sells t-shirts that say, "Don't Fauci My Florida". In May, the CDC said that VACCINATED people didn't need to wear masks out in public settings and EVERYONE stopped wearing their masks. There likely wouldn't have been a Delta surge had people been vaccinated and/or respectful of others. Seeing as well over 80% of hospitalizations are from unvaccinated people, the man in Alabama died because of disrespectful people influenced by politics and the "power tripping clown" was indirectly enabled by the same group of people's behavior. Sorry things were difficult for you and your family, but it is clear who created these issues. I would suggest starting to "call those people out". I've been doing so since this whole thing started. Unfortunately, many more of these situations will need to occur before people change their ways.

 

[scott2000]

because of disrespectful people influenced by politics and the "power tripping clown" was indirectly enabled by the same group of people's behavior

+1

 

[iturnknobs]

In all fairness... some Republican should have shut me down with this guy. I don't agree with almost all Republican policy, but I can't shame this guy on Covid(I do believe vaccine mandates in high population employment situations is not a ridiculous thing).

https://indianexpress.com/article/t...reaction-to-anti-vaccine-crazy-ideas-7498270/
https://www.wboy.com/news/health/co...les-virtual-covid-19-briefing-for-1030-a-m-6/
https://governor.wv.gov/News/press-...ging-Gov-Justice-urges-more-vaccinations.aspx

 

[shabtek]

medical care for routine stuff is abysmal by all local accounts
we will pay for this in higher taxes and premiums and reduced quality of care for some time

 

[hodad]

re West Virginia: I was there this summer when case numbers were down & they were trailing most of the other undervaccinated states (this was mid-July). Looking at their vax numbers and the extreme lack of masking (the staff at the local Mexican restaurant were masked up, but not many others), I knew even then that this was coming--not that it took a genius to see it. It didn't have to be this way for WV--their future was being played out in Florida and Louisiana and eventually other states, and they had ample opportunity to learn from this & do something about it. But, to the surprise of exactly no one, they didn't.

It's dismaying, infuriating, and heartbreaking.