The Middle East Friendship Chart

[cyrano]

As long as extremist Islam terrorists are being financed, mainly  from Saudi-Arabia and UAE there is no end to the suffering...

Even devout Muslims who have good intentions are forced to pay zakat. As long as the leaders of SA and UAE don't stop that practice, money will keep flowing to the terrorists.

I think these leaders are afraid to stop that practice, as it would undermine their own dictatorial power. There simply is no lesser evil in the Middle east.

 

[JohnRoberts]

As long as extremist Islam terrorists are being financed, mainly  from Saudi-Arabia and UAE there is no end to the suffering...

Those aren't their only money sources, In western Iraq and Syria they were capturing oil and selling it to nations in the region. In Afghanistan the drug (poppy/opium) trade has funded more than just terror.

Even devout Muslims who have good intentions are forced to pay zakat. As long as the leaders of SA and UAE don't stop that practice, money will keep flowing to the terrorists.

those aren't the only two regions where radical islam is allowed to exist.

I think these leaders are afraid to stop that practice, as it would undermine their own dictatorial power. There simply is no lesser evil in the Middle east.

Indeed the Saudis have a well educated and well funded population with too much idle time on their hands. The royal family is doing whatever they think they can to hold onto power (its what authoritarian governments do). They have attempted re-education of extremists for years with little or no success.

I AM NOT the middle east expert, but I have been paying attention to world news for a very long time. The first time I ever heard about the Uyghurs was when China refused to take some of their own citizens back that were being released from Gitmo... they were apparently captured fighting in Afghanistan.

Indeed several of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens.

Besides funding, the terrorists need bases to plan and operate from. This is why the fledgling ISIS caliphate in Iraq/Syria was such a risk to the rest of the world. The 9/11 hijackers operated out of Afghanistan with no resistance from the Taliban. One new concern is about the pro western government of Afghanistan falling to the Taliban again without western military support (After the US pulls out, the rest of the Nato alliance will follow).

Other lawless regions around the world are also locations where radical islam can get established.

Another obvious question is why don't the rest of the muslim populations who aren't radical just reject the cancer from within. Of course that is easier said than done, like all the other too easy to work answers. Indeed this conflict will be with us for a long time.

JR   

 

[JohnRoberts]

Things are heating up between Israel and Palestine with reprisals for new rocket attacks and more deaths in Palestine.

For a classic follow the money exercise, where are the Palestinians getting all those rockets.?
===
Iran has an election coming up in a few months so expect more posturing in the region. Iran fast ships were messing with an US navy escort in the straits of Hormuz a few days ago.

 

[Banzai]

For a classic follow the money exercise, where are the Palestinians getting all those rockets.?

They make them themselves. Homemade $800 rockets.

https://web.archive.org/web/20090414193851/http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/prr/qassams.php
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...-visit-to-a-gaza-rocket-factory-a-531578.html

 

[JohnRoberts]

Even if that was true, where did they get the $800 ea? I thought the Palestinian economy was challenged.

Sometimes I feel like I am competing with well oiled propaganda machines.

Of course don't take my observations for absolute truth. See if the competing statements pass a smell test. and make your own decisions.

JR

 

[Banzai]

Even if that was true, where did they get the $800 ea? I thought the Palestinian economy was challenged.–

Because you don't read links:

'The Islamic Jihad rocket factory is housed in a kind of garden shed. The hut measures five meters by five meters, metal pipes with small wings lean against the wall in the corner: Half finished Qassams.There are several tightly packed garbage bags on a shelf. "TNT," says Abdul and produces a chunk. The explosive looks like lumpy sugar. A large cauldron is sitting ready on a gas cooker while bags with Hebrew writing are piled up high up against the wall. "Fertilizer for the rocket fuel," Abdul says and grins. "We get it in Israel."

(...) The presence of smuggling tunnels under the Egyptian border have ensured that there is never a lack of supplies. "The TNT comes to us from Sudan via Egypt." Other elements arrive by boat across the sea to Gaza. "We get some from Eastern Europe." The raw materials for one large rocket cost up to €500. The money to finance the operation comes the same route as the materials. "The Israeli blockade doesn't affect us; it's just intended to plunge the people into misery."'

Source of rocket materials: Israel, Sudan, Egypt, Eastern Europe...
Know-how: probably Iran and reverse engineering
Money: same places as above. bulk from private donors in Gulf

Sometimes I feel like I am competing with well oiled propaganda machines.

You just want all this to be more complicated than it really is. US assists and funds the Israeli's. Iran and Arabs assist and fund the Palestinians.

From the well oiled UK state propaganda machine:

'But by far the bulk of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad arsenals come from a dynamic and relatively sophisticated manufacturing capability inside the Gaza Strip itself. Israeli and outside experts believe that Iranian know-how and assistance have played a significant role in building up this industry. Accordingly, weapons manufacturing and storage sites have been among the chief targets of the Israeli strikes.

It certainly includes many thousands of weapons of varying ranges. Clearly the Israeli military has its own estimates that it is not willing to share. All a spokesmen would say was that they believed Hamas could sustain this level of fire for "a significant period of time".'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57092245

 

[JohnRoberts]

The most recent weapons shipment seizure in the Arabian sea (May 9th) was apparently headed towards the Yemen Houthis.
===
It appears that Israel is trying to prevent misery of their own population from rocket attacks on civilian areas. If they are trying to provoke Israel into a more violent military response to generate international disfavor they may get their wish.
===
Does anybody expect Iran to reduce their proxy warfare across the region if President Biden relaxes sanctions?

So some fraction of humanitarian aid going to Gaza from EU is used for weapons acquisition.

It is unclear what the long game against Israel is, but they seem to be making progress with the current US administration. President Biden publicly restated Israel's right to defend themselves, while privately working to empower Iran.

It seems like multiple hot spots around the world are heating up. New US administrations are routinely tested.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Iran's largest navy ship caught fire and sank. It is unclear what caused the fire.

Their presidential election is scheduled for Jun 18... the outcome is predetermined by the fact that reform and moderate candidates were not allowed to run.

JR

 

[user 37518]

This is a never ending conflict, Arabs wants to wipe out the Jews, or more specifically Israel, and Israel won't leave the land. Thats the political argument, but more importantly, the religious is the real problem, for both the Arabs and the Jews they have their holy places at the same place, the Mosque is on top of what used to be the 2nd Temple of Israel, the greatest dream for the Jews is to have the 3rd Temple built at the same place, in fact many Jews say that their "true messiah" will bring the 3rd Temple from the sky, on the other hand the Muslims claim that their most important prophet ascended heaven at the same place, how can you reconcile that?

That is in fact what started this last conflict, the claim that the Jews invaded the mosque and the claim that the Palestinians provoked the Jews.

In terms of ownership, from the Jewish perspective they were originally from that land, from the Palestine perspective the Jews came and kicked the Palestinians out of their land, the problem is that both arguments are true!

There is a YouTube channel, very interesting, called something like "Ask a Palestinian/Ask an Israeli" they go out and ask Palestinians controversial questions, and they do the same with the Israelies. From what I gather, the Palestinians want to destroy the Israeli state, not the people per se, they say they are willing to let them live in the land as long as it is entirely Palestine, the Jews on the other hand say that the land is rightfully theirs. Some interesting quesitons for the Palestines are "Would you marry a Jew?", the answer is quite interesting, of course the immediate answer is a resounding NO, but when they rephrase the question and they ask "Would you marry a Jew if he/she converted to Islam?" most said yes. So again, its a religious and territorial dispute, the thing with Islam is that religion IS the state, so if you are not muslim you are automatically in disagreement not only with their beliefs but with their politics.

 

[Gold]

This is a never ending conflict, Arabs wants to wipe out the Jews, or more specifically Israel, and Israel won't leave the land. Thats the political argument, but more importantly, the religious is the real problem, for both the Arabs and the Jews they have their holy places at the same place, the Mosque is on top of what used to be the 2nd Temple of Israel, the greatest dream for the Jews is to have the 3rd Temple built at the same place, in fact many Jews say that their "true messiah" will bring the 3rd Temple from the sky, on the other hand the Muslims claim that their most important prophet ascended heaven at the same place, how can you reconcile that?

All Arabs and Palestinians aren't Muslim. There are Christians, Druze and others.

 

[Banzai]

All Arabs and Palestinians aren't Muslim. There are Christians, Druze and others.

... and Jews.

Half of Israel's Jews have Arab origins.

 

[user 37518]

All Arabs and Palestinians aren't Muslim. There are Christians, Druze and others.

Perhaps I mispoke, when I say Jews I meant Israeli citizens and Muslims from arab countries, I am aware that not everyone is muslim in the middle east.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Israeli citizenship is not about religion but a nationality. Residents there can become naturalized citizens by demonstrating (3) years proof of residency, and denouncing any other nationality. There are many non-jewish citizens. Something like 20% are non-jewish arabs.
===
Many christians from other nations in the region have been brutalized too.

JR

PS: The title of this old thread and my original post refers to the complex tapestry of relationships in the region. Don't expect to find easy explanations for the madness, while different groups are pursuing personal interests that make sense to them.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Its time for an update on the ME situation. Most obvious is the imminent pull out of western military support for Afghan government. I never understood the wisdom of announcing to the enemy when you are retreating but that is where we are right now and the Taliban are already taking back territory. I worry about the outcome for the interpreters who helped western forces at great personal risk to themselves and their families. These guys are walking dead without asylum in western nations. These guys actually deserve asylum, unlike all those economic migrants flowing across our southern border. Guam has offered temporary siting for them while waiting the 3 years to have paperwork approvals and full vetting. If they have to wait in Afghanistan they probably won't live that long.

The typical argument for staying there is that we have two decades of blood and treasure invested but as I have long argued it is and always was an un-winnable war. If you make a wrong turn and find yourself 20 miles down the road in the wrong direction, do you keep going because you have 20 miles invested in this wrong direction?

The ballistic aspects of fighting in Afghanistan is not the hard part, it is maintaining a robust peace afterwards. The nation simply does not have enough GDP to enforce law and order across the entire country. Of course as we pull out of Baghran air base and stop providing air support for the afghan army they will have a much harder time controlling the Taliban. If Taliban are given free reign that will mean the return of al Qaeda and ISIS in lawless un-policed territories. The warlords in some rural regions are using their armed militias to prevent the Taliban from taking even more territory.

I was very critical of ex-president Obama's "surge lite" That he began after pulling out of Iraq (that also was mismanaged IMO). Iraq and Afghanistan are dramatically different nations. Ironically perhaps China is talking about moving some military forces into Afghanistan but far from promoting democracy, they are looking to protect Chinese investments in resource mining in the region. The Chinese belt and roads initiative has invested in Afghanistan. US and Russia would love to see China take a turn inside the box, but I suspect China is smarter than that and will only protect very specific commercial interests in Afghanistan.

The Taliban are already trying to reassure China who shares a short border region with Afghanistan (only 47 miles long). China has some history with Taliban support of Uyghur militants. So I don't expect a warm embrace.

===
In other ME news Israel opened a new embassy in Abu Dhabi UAE. It looks like the Abraham accords are still causing positive change.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

The Taliban have captured the 6th provincial capital in Afghanistan since the US/NATO withdrawal. This is a surprise to pretty much nobody with half a clue.

I feel bad for the interpreters who have a target on their back, the women and children who have almost no rights (and everybody else).

We still have troops in Japan and Germany, but not Afghanistan? I do not advocate nation building (Afghanistan to too poor to support themselves anyhow), but this just seems cruel and uncharitable.

JR

 

[JohnRoberts]

Sadly the collapse of the Afghan military is faster and deeper than expected, no doubt the withdrawal of western air support made a pivotal difference. The Afghan leadership have already left Kabul for their own personal safety.

It is annoying to hear the modern hot takes on this 20 year action, from people who haven't been paying attention all along, or even recently.

To share a little history, the Taliban were not our original target, their primary sin was offering shelter to Al Qaeda. Afghanistan was where the 9/11 attack was planned and originated from. We cleared out that Al Qaeda base of operations in weeks while OBL escaped into the mountains near the Pakistan border (he was killed years later hiding in Pakistan). I have written about this mission creep to target the Taliban multiple times over the decades.

After the Kabul government falls, as appears imminent, Al Qaeda (and ISIS) will reconstitute and find shelter there, to plan more attacks against the west. The Taliban are bad people by western values, but not the "bad guys" in this scenario, it is the sundry terror groups they tolerate and allow to operate within their geography.

AND... Who was the brilliant marketing genius who decided to make Sept 11, a significant pullout date? This hands our enemies a marketing photo op to burn American flags and dance in the street to celebrate our embarrassing retreat on the 20 year anniversary of the original attack. If instead they had scheduled the pullout to occur during the middle of the winter, when Taliban militias are not active this, could been much better managed.

Yet another decision that could hardly be any worse. I feel sympathy for the Afghan people who will go through the wringer once again. What about all the young girls and women given education and hope over recent years, that will now get squashed.

JR

PS; ex-President Trump was also planning to pullout around this timeframe, but then secretary Pompeo had established terms that would have prevented a Taliban takeover. This is easier said than done but what we are seeing play out now looks like unconditional retreat. It is wishful thinking that the Afghan military could stand up to the Taliban without western air power support.

 

[hodad]

, but then secretary Pompeo had established terms that would have prevented a Taliban takeover.

Did Trump write this for you? Wait--you didn't say "bigly" or "beautiful" a half dozen times, so probably not. A really hasty search for "trump's deal with the taliban" reveals a lot of unhappiness with what Trump did--from left, center, and right. I'm not willing to give praise to any US administration for their handling of Afghanistan--Bush screwed it up first, and nobody managed to make it better.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Did Trump write this for you? Wait--you didn't say "bigly" or "beautiful" a half dozen times, so probably not. A really hasty search for "trump's deal with the taliban" reveals a lot of unhappiness with what Trump did--from left, center, and right. I'm not willing to give praise to any US administration for their handling of Afghanistan--Bush screwed it up first, and nobody managed to make it better.

Read my mind for what I am thinking about you question . It appears that ex-president Trump has set up permanent residence in the left's minds.

As someone who has been paying attention to international conflicts since even before I was drafted and served in the army decades ago, President Bush actually handled Al Qaeda relatively surgically, and quickly, while unfortunately allowing OBL to escape (probably the Northern Alliance that was working with us on that action was conflicted).

Sun Tzu in "the art of war" warns us to keep politicians away from prosecuting wars. I blame later administrations and congress who allowed mission creep to change focus to nation building from simply policing lawless territory and prohibiting safe shelter for terrorists, so they can't easily attack us over here again. I will call out ex-President Obama specifically for attempting to replicate the successful "surge" in Iraq, in Afghanistan with less soldiers in a dirt poor country. The Kabul government couldn't hold the territory if we handed it to them on a platter (as evidenced by recent events).

What is missed by most casual observers is how the military mission in Afghanistan had evolved over the years. The US/NATO military mission was now just support for Afghan soldier who are doing the actual combat (and dying). US casualties over the last 5 years or so have been low double digit, mainly because of the thousands of contractors and support troops there, with the last actual US KIA (killed in action) occurring in 2016.

So with little to no US military deaths occurring, this was not showing up in the news cycle like Viet Nam did every night on the evening news. One could speculate that the military/industrial complex learned their lesson from Viet Nam about how to keep the war machine plates spinning in perpetuity.

Nation building in Afghanistan is an impossible dream and I have argued exactly that right here for well over a decade. What was actually possible was to continue to shrink our military footprint there, while continuing to support the Afghan military in their ground fight. The tide noticeably turned against the Afghan army with the US pullout from Bagram air base roughly one month ago (recall we were providing air support for the Afghan army which is not insignificant). Reportedly the US told Kabul we were pulling out but not when so the Afghan army were unprepared to keep the Taliban from easily over running it (or just incapable).

I know your team thinks ex-president Trump is an idiot. From an ex-soldier's perspective there was a huge qualitative difference in how the US military was allowed to deal with the ISIS caliphate (now gone), versus other administrations dealing with terrorism in the region. I suspect ex-president Trump's distaste for the Afghan mission was economic. Afghanistan has been a black hole for money, draining resources from any world power unwise enough to try to civilize it.

I expect ex-President Trump's withdrawal would not be the cluster_fsk we are watching play out now, were he still in charge, but that is just my opinion.

JR

 

[hodad]

Read my mind for what I am thinking about you question . It appears that ex-president Trump has set up permanent residence in the left's minds.

As someone who has been paying attention to international conflicts since even before I was drafted and served in the army decades ago, President Bush actually handled Al Qaeda relatively surgically, and quickly, while unfortunately allowing OBL to escape (probably the Northern Alliance that was working with us on that action was conflicted).

I'm not the one who spoke glowingly of Trump's performance--even the AEI criticized his deal with the Taliban, so it's not just the left that didn't think highly of his diplomacy there. I will say that Trump expressed his displeasure with the Iraq/Afghanistan mess long ago (maybe as far back as the Bush years?), so I've got to give him props for that.

Yes, Bush took care of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, then lost his focus & went off to chase a shiny, oil-soaked object called Iraq. Afghanistan, and even OBL, played a weak second fiddle to the imaginary threat of chemical/nuclear weapons in Iraq. That's where things started to turn sour, and the conflict in Afghanistan that he left for Obama was already a mess.

I appreciate that you want to pretend that your team did a great job, while the other guys screwed everything up. But it just ain't so. It started with Bush, and Trump began negotiating the surrender to the Taliban. And Obama and Biden both did a bad job as well.



Did you know that shortly after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, the Taliban tried to surrender?

For centuries in Afghanistan, when a rival force had come to power, the defeated one would put down their weapons and be integrated into the new power structure — obviously with much less power, or none at all. That’s how you do with neighbors you have to continue to live with. This isn’t a football game, where the teams go to different cities when it’s over. That may be hard for us to remember, because the U.S. hasn’t fought a protracted war on its own soil since the Civil War.

So when the Taliban came to surrender, the U.S. turned them down repeatedly, in a series of arrogant blunders...

The Taliban Tried to Surrender and the U.S. Rebuffed Them. Now Here We Are.

 

[JohnRoberts]

Thanks for explaining ME history to me...

I suspect OBL was allowed to escape by the northern alliance because he was Mujahideen, before he was Al Qaeda...

Afghanistan has been at war for multiple generations and it looks like that sh__ train has not been derailed yet.

JR

PS: I recall listening to then senator Joe Biden pontificate about the middle east from his chairmanship over the senate foreign relations committee years ago. He should surely know better. If you think he is doing a good job now, congrats.